India 2014

[Sbane]

Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

1. I never said India treated minorities horribly. Unlike, it seems, you, I do not consider Modi to be India.

2. What do Muslim-Shmuslim countries have to do with this conversation? We do not talk about Saudi Arabia here. Frankly, I do not care a fruck for Saudi Arabia. We are talking about India. And, yes, in the US they used to lynch the Negroes. Another very relevant point you could make.

Why talk about Saudi Arabia? We could talk about, say, Bangladesh.

And my reason for even bringing up Muzaffarnagar was to show you that Modi is not in a league by his own, as you seem to think. Of course whether such a person should be PM is another matter. It is not unreasonable to hold a person seeking that office to a higher standard than your normal politician. I think he will be much better than Prince Gandhi, but I guess I have made my thoughts quite clear there.

Whatever actions Modi took, or to put it more accurately, didn't take in 2002 was due to political calculations. The same reason why the UP government didn't arrest those responsible for the Muzaffarnagar riots and the same reason why the beloved Congress party murdered more than a 1,000 Sikhs in 1984. And of course there are countless other examples in India, and unfortunately there will be more, whether or not Modi becomes PM.

[ag]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

[Хahar 🤔]

Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

The fact that that's not the case is what makes India better than those surrounding countries. I was unaware that the goal was to be just like Pakistan.

[Sbane]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

[ag]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

[Sbane]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

Umm, his wife currently runs the country and his son is running for PM. And she has personally protected congress party members who organized the riots.

[ag]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

Umm, his wife currently runs the country and his son is running for PM. And she has personally protected congress party members who organized the riots.

Back then his son was a child and his wife was completely out of politics then and for years thereafter. She most definitely did not order murders. I have no objections to Jashodaben running for office 10 years after the SOB dies.

[Sbane]

If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

Umm, his wife currently runs the country and his son is running for PM. And she has personally protected congress party members who organized the riots.

Back then his son was a child and his wife was completely out of politics then and for years thereafter. She most definitely did not order murders. I have no objections to Jashodaben running for office 10 years after the SOB dies.

She has been protecting the ones responsible though.

[jaichind]

Chart showing breakdown by party of candidates with criminal records



Note, the Maharashtra regional radical Hindu and anti-North Indian party MNS has 100% of their candidates having a criminal record.  Even AAP has 16% of its candidates having a criminal record.

[jaichind]

In Mizoram, a man with 39 wives and 127 children is a decisive 'votebank'.  It seems the entire family vote en bloc and has become the voter every  local politician wants to know.


http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/ELEC-NEW-mizoram-man-with-39-wives-and-127-children-is-a-decisive-votebank-4577907-NOR.html

[jaichind]

Several phases already voted.  As expected turnout is up from 2009 but not in an even way.  Overall what one gets from that chatter is that the NDA is not doing as well as what the media polls projected.  We can see this from several angles.

1) The defection battle is slowing turning in favor of UPA.   During most of the campaign the flow of defections seems to favor the NDA. Last week this trend seems to turn more in favor of UPA.  While this does not indicate that UPA will do better than expected, it does mean that people who are connected to the grassroots chatter is thinking that UPA will do better than what was the conventional wisdom a couple of weeks ago.
2) Possible BJP partners are coming out to attack BJP.  For the first time possible post-poll BJP ally AIADMK started to attack BJP.  TRS indicated that it would "never" join forces with BJP (of course this is the same TRS that joined NDA in 2009 after the votes has been cast but before they were counted and then quickly left NDA after the count showed NDA will not come to power.)  This could also be a sign that NDA is picking up strength in TN and Telangana so the local dominate regional party needed to come out to stem the tide. 
3) Turnout and local chatter on the whole is somewhat more favorable to UPA relative to expectations.  They are, state by state, respectively:
a) Delhi:  Turnout surged and it could be a sign of polarization and AAP mobilization.  It was expected that Muslim vote would concentrate behind INC or AAP on a district by district basis in order to defeat BJP.  It seems that did not take place as the Muslim vote was scattered. As a result a BJP sweep of all 7 seats is possible even likely.
b) Assam: Turnout also surged.  But it seems that this surge might be a pro-INC wave as well as Muslim consolidation in favor of INC and away from AUDF.  In which case a INC sweep of the state is quite possible.
c) Kerela: Turnout did not really increase from 2009.  This means that UPA and Left Front would split the seats and a possible BJP breakthrough did not take place.
d) Maharashtra: Turnout did rise from 2009 but not by a significant amount.  So a possible Modi wave does not seem to be in effect.  While the opinion polls show that NDA has a large leader of UPA it could be much closer.
e) Odisha: Record turnout.  But most likely this is a wave in favor of BJD so neither UPA or NDA would gain much here.
f) Bihar: Turnout is actually down from 2009 so far.  If this continues then we should view the vote more in caste terms and that means that RJD-INC would appear to gain from this.
h) Jharkhand: Large turnout surge despite Maoist threats to boycott the polls.  This could mean polarization which tends to benefits both UPA and NDA to the loss of parities like JVM, AJSU and JD(U).
i) Uttar Pradesh: Massive surge in turnout in the places that voted so far.  Of course this area includes the areas affect by last years Muzaffarnagar riots.  It is clear that this highly communalized vote will benefit the BJP.  So it is so far so good for the BJP UP strategy. Of course we have to see how the rest of the UP votes.
j) Goa:  Massive surge in turnout to record levels.  Given how the BJP state government is not viewed in a positive light and that recently local Christian leaders have started to warn of a Modi government, this is a bad sign for BJP as the large Christian voters might be consolidating behind INC. 

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting BBC article on the power struggle between Sonia and Singh. Question for Xahar or jaichind: whose side of that story is more accurate?

[Sbane]

It's an open secret that Sonia runs the country.

[RogueBeaver]

I knew that, just wanted to know the extent.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

[Sbane]

The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

Yes, only the BJP has a history of using communal violence for political gain. You seem to be very familiar with Indian politics.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

Yes, only the BJP has a history of using communal violence for political gain. You seem to be very familiar with Indian politics.

The prosecution rests. A+ Whataboutery.

(Oh, and nice putting words in my mouth. I said nothing about the BJP, Modi, The Nehru-Gandhis, Gujarat, Congress or anything of that nature. Please criticize me for the things I say in future. Good protip that).

[Sbane]

The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

Yes, only the BJP has a history of using communal violence for political gain. You seem to be very familiar with Indian politics.

The prosecution rests. A+ Whataboutery.

(Oh, and nice putting words in my mouth. I said nothing about the BJP, Modi, The Nehru-Gandhis, Gujarat, Congress or anything of that nature. Please criticize me for the things I say in future. Good protip that).

My point is that most of the political parties in India are cut from the same cloth when it comes to communalism. You can call it whatever you would like, I don't really care. The truth is that in the west the BJP is seen as this evil party whereas Congress can do no wrong.

[Sbane]

And looking up the definition of whataboutery (not familiar with it since it's not really used in America), I must say I find nothing wrong with it unless one uses it to justify certain actions (communalism in this case). I challenge you to find a post where I did that.

My defense of the BJP here really is to give people an understanding of why urban India will be voting overwhelmingly for the BJP, and why it doesn't have anything to do with killing muslims. Of course the argument is made that the BJP are too horrible a party and being tired of Congress party corruption and ineffectiveness in keeping economic growth going is not enough of a justification to vote for them. From the Indian perspective though, the BJP, as horrible as it is, isn't that dissimilar from the rest of the lot.

[Zanas]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

[Sbane]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Consolation prize for people fearing Modi: he's a big greenie.

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/03/19/narendra-modi-big-fan-solar-coal/

It would be nice, if only to shut up those people who say garbage like, "Oh, well, India does nothing to stop climate change, so I should be allowed to make as much CO2 as I like!".

I think his involvement in the riots is suspicious - even for your average third-world politician - but he's not stupid enough to repeat such a blunder.

[jaichind]

The free for all  political defections and poaching is reaching comical levels, especially in a place like  AP where there is a large churn in political alignments due to the Telangana issue and fall of INC in  Seemandhra.  TRS sent its official spokesperson D Shravan to the equivalent of a Sunday political talk show, and by the time it aired he already defected to INC where he became the spokesperson for Telangana INC.  In fact when the show was aired and he was shown speaking on behalf of TRS, the TV show had to put subtitles pointing out that the speaker has since defected to INC.

 

[jaichind]

The latest and last poll out before the votes are counted on NDTV does not look good for UPA.

It has NDA at 275 which is a majority and BJP at 226.  It has UPA at 111 and INC at 92.  It seems that this poll has BJP doing very well in Odisha and Jhkarhand relative to the previous poll and holding on to large leads in UP and Bihar. 

Despite the fact that I still feel that media polls are underestimating UPA, I do have to admit that the trend is on the side of NDA.  Many would say that media polls got it wrong in 2004 and 2009 and in both cases totally underestimated UPA.  This is true.  But one thing about polls in 2004 and 2009 was that as the campaign moved on the polls did indicate a shift toward UPA, even if the final estimate was totally off.  The polls did pick up the momentum.  Here in 2014, the poll is picking up a momentum toward NDA.  So even if it underestimates UPA like I feel, the chances of UPA doing MUCH better than what the media polls are slim.  If so then we are looking at NDA government led by Modi.