India 2014

[jaichind]

As for the topic of Sonia Gandhi and PM Singh, most of the recent controversy revolve around a couple of books that just got published by former Singh insiders who claimed that Singh had no power and that Sonia was "super PM."  While I agree that Sonia Gandhi is really the power behind the UPA government, she does seem to defer to Singh on economic and foreign policy issues.  One example is the 2008 Indo-US nuclear dea which nearly brought down the UPA government.  It was something that Singh very much believed in and got Sonia's complete support.  Where things tends to break down is that Sonia is in charge of keeping the majority togeather which means making deals with corrupt polititions within UPA.  Singh does not have to deal with that but I assume him or his staff is frustrated at having to deal with this.

[jaichind]

All signs are that the TDP-BJP alliance is not really working at the ground level.  At lot of TDP cadres seems to not be supporting BJP candidates.  In fact BJP gave a seat back to TDP once they realized that BJP has no presence in that district and that TDP cadres is doing nothing to help.  In Telangana the BJP cadres does not seem to be working to TDP candidates whom they feel is a drag since the view is TDP is anti-Telangana.  The fact that TDP is fielding so many INC defectors is also making the TDP cadre unhappy.  In fact a Modi-Naidu join event was canceled because there is no TDP-BJP agreement on which of the two will be the main course.  Of course if the media polls are right this does not matter in urban AP, the Modi wave will lead to victories in at least those districts.  We will see when the votes are counted.

[Gustaf]

Am I in correct in thinking that no results are released until all the country has voted? Or do we get piece-by-piece info? And in the former case, are there leaks?

[jaichind]

Am I in correct in thinking that no results are released until all the country has voted? Or do we get piece-by-piece info? And in the former case, are there leaks?

The way it works is the country votes in several different phases.  Only when all the voting is done will they start counting the votes.  As the count progresses there will be partial results released. This year there are not exit polls allowed to be released once the voting starts.  Once all the voters voted and before the counting begins exit polls are allowed to be published.

[Хahar 🤔]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

I was unaware that the average Indian politician instigated mass pogroms.

[Sbane]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

I was unaware that the average Indian politician instigated mass pogroms.

The average Indian politician is not above anything in order to win.

[jaichind]

The average Indian politician is not above anything in order to win.

True.  But we should look at what that politician did in order to win.  I completely agree with you that the INC is not above this sort of stuff.  In the 1960s the local INC in MP and UP was behind a bunch anti-Muslim riots and Nehru was powerless to stop them.  The scale of these riots were not as bad a Gujarat 2002 but were all very significant.  And of course there is the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.  But just because the INC did these things it is not the same as all INC politicians did these things.  And certainly did not nominate these people for PM.  So while I agree that the INC is far from being guiltless there is a hierarchy of misdeeds. 

For example, it is a common consensus that Jagdish Tytler was the INC leader behind the 1984 riots.  It is true that INC in 2009 nominated Jagdish Tytler for a MP who in turn won.  So the INC leadership is protecting those behind these riots.  But that is not the same as nominating Jagdish Tytler as the INC candidate for PM.  So I do not see INC protecting Jagdish Tytler the same as BJP nominating Modi as PM.  What the BJP is doing is one step further than what the INC did.

[Sbane]

The average Indian politician is not above anything in order to win.

True.  But we should look at what that politician did in order to win.  I completely agree with you that the INC is not above this sort of stuff.  In the 1960s the local INC in MP and UP was behind a bunch anti-Muslim riots and Nehru was powerless to stop them.  The scale of these riots were not as bad a Gujarat 2002 but were all very significant.  And of course there is the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.  But just because the INC did these things it is not the same as all INC politicians did these things.  And certainly did not nominate these people for PM.  So while I agree that the INC is far from being guiltless there is a hierarchy of misdeeds. 

For example, it is a common consensus that Jagdish Tytler was the INC leader behind the 1984 riots.  It is true that INC in 2009 nominated Jagdish Tytler for a MP who in turn won.  So the INC leadership is protecting those behind these riots.  But that is not the same as nominating Jagdish Tytler as the INC candidate for PM.  So I do not see INC protecting Jagdish Tytler the same as BJP nominating Modi as PM.  What the BJP is doing is one step further than what the INC did.

The thing about Modi is that he is a good campaigner and can project himself as a strong leader. And he was the CM of a state, whereas Tytler is more or less a nobody.

Let's see what ends up happening. Count me in the "160 club" you mentioned a couple days back. I want a BJP victory more than a Modi victory.

[ag]

Am I in correct in thinking that no results are released until all the country has voted? Or do we get piece-by-piece info? And in the former case, are there leaks?

The way it works is the country votes in several different phases.  Only when all the voting is done will they start counting the votes.  As the count progresses there will be partial results released. This year there are not exit polls allowed to be released once the voting starts.  Once all the voters voted and before the counting begins exit polls are allowed to be published.

But the day of the count it will be fast. Voting is electronic, so there will be no hanging chads involved. Just adding up the info from electronic voting machines.

[jaichind]

Speaking of the 160 Club there are some signs that these rumors are true and that even Modi seems to be taking it into account. 

a) In a recent interview, Modi said "First of all, we might cross 180, as I have been campaigning all across the country.”  This is way less than the 220 or 200 projected in media polls.  Note that Modi said might and not will.  He could be trying to lower expectations and avoid overconfidence which might lead to lower turnout among BJP supporters.  But it is telling that Modi seems to set the benchmark at 180.  It could be that he is aware that the "160 club" might do some damage.
b) BJP President Rajnath Singh visited  prominent Shia cleric and  he was seen wearing a skull cap while visiting the shrine of a Sufi saint.  It is clear that this visit will not generate any Muslim votes for the BJP.  It does say that Rajnath Singh has identified himself as a member of the "160 club" and has sent a signal that he is a BJP moderate and available for the PM job in case NDA does not get the numbers to form a government without expanding out to other alternative allies.  Modi did seem threatened when he responded by saying that he refused to wear a skull cap because he doesn't believe in "fooling people" for the sake of "photo opportunities".

[jaichind]

More problems in the TDP-BJP alliance.  TDP leader Naidu is under great pressure in Seemandhra from his own party over the BJP alliance.  In a teleconference with his party leaders late last night,  Naidu is said to have remarked that the candidates being fielded by the BJP are "weak" and that he will have to consider breaking the alliance with the BJP if this situation does not change.  Also now it seems that JSP led by the younger brother of INC leader Chiranjeevi which was suppose to be part of the TDP-BJP alliance is going its own separate ways.  Since this saterday is the deadline for filing papers for candidates in AP there will be more jockeying before then.
 

[jaichind]

All signs are that INC is doing well in Karnataka and will gain significantly from 2009. I guess this election will be decided in place like UP, Bihar, and Jharkhand where we have to see if BJP could get to 35% of the vote to corner half the seats there.   If they come in at around 30% of the vote then the seats distribution will be much more scattered.  It is clear that in BJP-INC bipolar states (MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, HP) the BJP is headed for a massive win although the INC might make minor gains in Chhattisgarh.  In Maharashtra it seems that  both the NCP and SS are falling apart as both are beset by rebellion and defections.  So the winner would be the alliance that falls apart less will win.  At this stage that still looks like NDA.

[jaichind]

The thing about Modi is that he is a good campaigner and can project himself as a strong leader. And he was the CM of a state, whereas Tytler is more or less a nobody.

Let's see what ends up happening. Count me in the "160 club" you mentioned a couple days back. I want a BJP victory more than a Modi victory.

I guess your point is that if given a chance that nominating Tytler for PM would give INC an electoral advantage the INC would do it making it no different from BJP.  You could be right although this is in the world of hypothetical.  I tend to see this in terms of the old Chinese philosophical debate of "who is worse? the fake gentleman or the real scoundrel."   This debates has both sides where some argue that hypocrisy is the worse vice and the counter argument the real scoundrel might be genuine but nothing inhibits him from wanton acts.  I tend to argue that INC is the fake gentleman and the BJP the real scoundrel in the India communal riots debate.  I tend to think that just to keep up the image of a gentleman, there are some things the INC would stop short off (like nominating Tytler as PM) while there are not inhibitions from the BJP.  In that sense BJP is worse than INC on this topic despite the obvious INC hypocrisy on this issue.  

[jaichind]

Some we have to keep in mind as we see all this record turnout across India in this elections is

a) ECI has done a lot last few years to clean up the electoral rolls of dead and non-existing voters so that lowers the demonstrator. 
b) Starting in the 2013 assembly elections which is also true for this federal election, NOTA (none of the above) is a choice as well.  This might increase turnout as disaffected voters now have a way to show their anger at the political system where as before they would have just stayed home.  During the 2013 assembly elections, the NOTA vote ranged from 1%-3%.  Using this benchmark, having NOTA as an option most likely will have the affect of increasing turnout by 1%-1.5%.

[Maez]

I found an interesting article on the Electronic Voting Machines used in these elections. My favorite part was, of course, the complaints filed by the various political parties regarding these machines:

"Occasionally, criticism of the machines takes bizarre forms. During last year's regional assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, for instance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) filed a formal complaint after an Indian National Congress party elder allegedly told tribal voters that the EVMs would electrocute them if they voted for non-Congress candidates."

theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/indian-democracy-runs-on-briefcase-sized-voting-machines/360554/

[jaichind]

On the topic of the risk of the BJP/Modi over-promising only to reap the bitter fruit of disappointment the most recent issue Outlook magazine points out

http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?290344

"By all accounts, Modi’s has been a brilliant (and hugely expensive) campaign. To pitch a provincial, controversial and even tainted chief minister to a messianic national figure is no mean task. Some Congress leaders, in fact, take con­sola­tion in the fact that if such a divisive figure can be ‘sold’ to the people, there’s still hope yet for the Congress! Indeed, the scale of BJP’s propaganda blitzkrieg and the sweep of its promises have left many aghast. “Media reports that voters are taken in by promises of 10 per cent annual growth, 100 spanking, new cities, millions of jobs and scores of IITs and universities sprouting after May 16 are alarming,” says Hasan. There is some apprehension within the BJP too. A senior party leader confesses that if the party fails to deliver, “it won’t be long before Rahul Gandhi emerges as a national hero”."

Remember, telling tall tales and brovado is not alien to the Modi style of politics.  I really like the Youtube video below from the 2007 Gujarat election campaign.  The stuff they say about Modi in the video border on a parody of itself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3UUU4ZQhDk&index=136&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

[jaichind]

One surprise in this election in Haryana is the revival of INLD.  Left for dead after its top leadership are put in jail for corruption and the BJP dumped it for HJC, INLD is making fight of this election.  INLD seems to have revived itself to have turned the election in Haryana into a 3 cornered contest with BJP-HJC vs INC vs INLD-SAD.  In some places AAP is a factor as well making it a 4 way contest.  INLD seems to be cutting into the anti-INC vote share which would have gone BJP as well as part of its old Jat base which INC recently managed to capture a significant portion.  Whereas one expected a BJP-HJC sweep, now we might see INLD win a seat or two.

[jaichind]

So far the reports from the ground from UP and Bihar seem to match both BJP hopes are fears.  There seems to be a churning where there is a swing OBC and Dalit voters toward BJP as a result of the Modi factor.  On the flip side, BJP seems to be losing some upper caste voters who felt sidelined by Modi nominating so many OBC candidates.  Also there does seem to be a Muslim consolidation against the BJP in both UP and Bihar.  In regions of the UP most recently affected by the Hindu-Muslim riots, the Jats are moving away from INC ally RLD toward BJP while the Muslim vote is consolidating in favor of BSP as SP regime is seen as not being effective in protecting Muslims.  In the rest of UP the anti-Modi Muslim consolidation seems to be in favor of SP and in favor of RLD-INC in Bihar.
One thing seems to be sure, the first and second place finishers in each district in UP and Bihar will get a greater % of the vote than the first and second place finishers in each district back in 2009.  It is also clear that NDA will be first or second in pretty much all UP and Bihar seats bar a few.  Weather this means a complete NDA sweep depends on if SP BSP RLD JD(U) can minimize of the loss of their base to BJP and if Muslims tactical voting is effective in giving votes to the candidate most likely to stop BJP.

My current prediction is NDA will capture 33 of 80 in UP and 19 of 40 in Bihar.  I might adjust as more info comes in.

[Maez]

Some people had suggested that the BJP might need 40 to 50 seats from UP in order to form government with Modi at its head. Do these numbers change any equations, or are they still good enough for Modi come May 16th?

[Gustaf]

Just read an article calling Modi the Reagan of India. Fun comparison, which didn't seem to be without merit really.

[jaichind]

Last couple of days there has been a sudden surge in anti-Muslim outbursts from the pro-BJP camp which is causing the NDA platform of good governance to be drowned out.  
First a BJP candidate in Bihar Giriraj Singh said that all who oppose Modi should go to Pakistan.  Then VHP (a Hindu nationalist organization) leader said on camera that steps must be taken on how to prevent Muslims from buying property in areas where Hindus are in the majority.
Then SS leader Ramdas Kadam said at a rally that Modi attended that Narendra Modi will destroy Pakistan within six months if he comes to power.  He also said ""These Muslims riot against the police and burnt their vehicles. They vandalised the statues of our martyrs. These Muslims molest our women policemen...I am sure that Narendra Modi will ensure that such acts do not go unpunished" as Modi looked on.

BJP and Modi had to go into rescue mode and said that well-wishers of the BJP and Modi should not engage in provocative statements.  

Of course these outbursts might not be a bug but a feature.  It was always understood that those at the margins of the BJP campaign will whip up anti-Muslim polarization to capture the rural OBC vote and the BJP mainstream will present a face of moderation and good governance and capture the moderate middle class Hindu vote.   What seems to be going wrong here is that these outbursts are going viral in the national media and doing damage to the BJP brand in the middle class and make it that much more likely for anti-BJP Muslim consolidation.

[jaichind]

Some people had suggested that the BJP might need 40 to 50 seats from UP in order to form government with Modi at its head. Do these numbers change any equations, or are they still good enough for Modi come May 16th?

Mostly true, although there is no reason why the BJP cannot get to around 190 seats even if they end up with 30-35 seats in UP as long as they sweep MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, HP, and Delhi while doing reasonably well in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharastra and Jharkhand.  If so then the NDA would be around 220 and should be in a good position to form the government. 

Doing very well in UP is more of a insurance for BJP in case some of these other states goes against them.

[jaichind]

The Modi wave in WB, while being unlikely to generate much in terms of seats, seems to be helping the Left Front which was left for dead as it has been hemorrhaging cadres at the grassroots level as a permanent Left Front government seems to be replaced by a permanent TMC government.  The BJP, unlike in 2009, is running candidates in all 42 seats which will cut into the TMC and to some extent INC vote based.  If Left Front can hold on to its 2009 vote share then it might manage to get 20 seats and beat back the TMC landslide.

[jaichind]

In TN there seems to be signs of a DMK comeback. First there seem to be Muslim consolidation behind DMK for fears that AIADMK will join hands with NDA after the election.  There are also reports that in Northern TN there are tactic alliances between INC and DMK which could help DMK given how close and mutli-cornered these contests are.  Of course in Southern TN the DMK rebel Alagiri is still doing damage as there are signs that he is cooperating with both INC and NDA to defeat DMK candidates in his home base of Madurai and districts in the area.  All in all the chances of a all AIADMK landslide on the order of 35 seats seems less and less likely.

[jaichind]

This cartoon



is a good description of the perceived BJP good cop bad cop setup over the years.

In the 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 elections, the BJP leader was Vajpayee with Advani as the Hindu nationalist hardliner whose job is to whip up the BJP base while Vajpayee goes after the moderate vote.  In 2009 Advani was the BJP leader so he became the moderate and Modi played the role of the hardliner.  In 2014 Modi is the BJP leader so someone else in this case VHP leader Togadia will play the role of the hardliner.  Togadia recently spoke in Gujarat where talked about how to keep Muslims from buying property in Hindu majority areas and discussed methods such as using sticks and rocks to get Muslims out of Hindu majority areas.  This is the same Gujarat that saw the 2002 riots with Modi at the helm.