India 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blank map of constituencies. Errors likely, simplifications in certain areas guaranteed. Feel free to use, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Doubtless riddled with errors, but, hey.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Karnataka and to a lesser extent Maharashtra outside Mumbai and Chhattisgarh stand out.

[Sol]

I haven't really been following this, and I'm insufficiently familiar with the election process that this may be totally impossible, but does the INC have any chance of pulling out a 2004-style upset?

Also, great map, Al!

[Sbane]

Karnataka and to a lesser extent Maharashtra outside Mumbai and Chhattisgarh stand out.

The national elections in India are heavily influenced by what is going on at the state level. Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Karnataka had popular BJP governments in power at that time. Chattisgarh could also be due to consolidation by the tribal government behind the anti-missionary party, which would be the BJP. Karnataka will be interesting this year. Probably the one state which will swing against the BJP due to an unpopular BJP government in the state.

[Sol]

Blank map of constituencies. Errors likely, simplifications in certain areas guaranteed. Feel free to use, etc.

Don't constituencies cross state lines?

[Maez]

Constituencies are drawn within the states, for example, Andhra Pradesh has 42 Lok Sabha constituencies.

[Sol]

Constituencies are drawn within the states, for example, Andhra Pradesh has 42 Lok Sabha constituencies.

I could've sworn they sometimes bridged the boundaries.

[Maez]

With regards to the Lok Sabha Maps, you can find shapefiles of the LS constituencies (after the 2008 delimitation) on Github.

github.com/datameet/maps/tree/master/parliamentary-constituencies

[Maez]

- SNIP -

Blank map of constituencies. Errors likely, simplifications in certain areas guaranteed. Feel free to use, etc.

Might I inquire as to how you got the map data? I've been trying to find blank maps for the state assemblies for some time...

[Хahar 🤔]

I haven't really been following this, and I'm insufficiently familiar with the election process that this may be totally impossible, but does the INC have any chance of pulling out a 2004-style upset?

Also, great map, Al!

It's certainly possible. At this point my guess would be that we'll see a hung parliament of some kind; the BJP obviously can't win enough seats to form government by itself and whether it can find enough allies is very much up in the air.

[jaichind]

I haven't really been following this, and I'm insufficiently familiar with the election process that this may be totally impossible, but does the INC have any chance of pulling out a 2004-style upset?

Also, great map, Al!

Possible but not likely that the polls will be off by the scale in 2004.  In 2004 at least the exit polls did pick up the trend that UPA was going up and NDA was going down relative to pre-election surveys which some had NDA at around 290-300.  We will know more when exit polls comes out.  I will argue that the 2009 result surprise was even greater relative to the polls as the exit polls pretty much matched pre-election surveys and were way off.  Below is a chart of average of polls versus results in 1998 1999 2004 and 2009.  Note that in 1998 and 1999 there were no exit polls.

                 NDA                             UPA
             poll   result                 poll     result
1998     233     252                  155      166         (all pre-election surveys)
1999     332     296                  142       134        (all pre-election surveys)
2004     246     189                  187       222        (all exit polls)
2009     185     159                  198       262        (all exit polls)
2014     258                             114                     (all pre-election surveys, so far)

As one can see, 1998 was a good year for polls but in 1999 2004 2009 NDA kept on getting overestimated.  It is interesting that introducing exit polls so far did not make predictions more accurate.   In fact is has become less accurate.  At least in 2004 the exit polls picked up the NDA decline although it missed the magnitude of the decline.  Like I said in 2004 pre-election polls had NDA at around 290-300 and at least the average of exit polls had them drop to 246.  In 2009 the exit polls completely missed the UPA surge and even worse the 2009 exit polls mostly matched pre-election surveys that is why the the result was such a surprise.

In 2014 trend in pre-election surveys seems to be moving in NDA's favor.  If the exit polls show a decline of NDA relative toe pre-election surveys then the NDA might have a long vote counting day.  If they match the more likely than not the NDA is looking at a comfortable win.

My now personal xls of predictions has NDA at 223 and UPA at 139.  As more reports come in I will end up changing them, especially after exit polls comes out.

[jaichind]

I have more thoughts on if the NDA will have a risk of under-performing polls.  One way of looking at it, as I pointed out before, is that this is not as likely as 2004 as the trends of the pre-election polls are moving in NDA’s favor over time which was the opposite in 2004.  Another way of looking at this problem in the historical context shows that there is some risk of NDA under-performing polls from the number of seats point of view although perhaps not in terms of vote share of view.  To understand this we have to look at each India election since 1989 (1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009) and look at the dynamics vote share versus seats and likely implications of tactical voting at the grassroots level.
 
First let’s define NDA as BJP plus pre-election allies, UPA as INC plus pre-election allies, TF as Third Front which is usually anti-BJP JD factions/splinters, SP, Left Front plus various regional parties just jump into and out of TF from election to election.  In 2004 TF would be BSP instead of SP as ally of Left front with SP, RLD, and LJP as FF (Fourth Front) which was a pro-UPA front at the national level but rivals of UPA at the local level.  Some of these numbers might not match what are the official records as many official results are based on Post-election alliances and present data from a pre-election alliance point of view.  Looking at each successive election since 1991 for UPA NDA TF in terms of vote share and seats we have:

1989
NDA    11.54     87
UPA    41.84   216
TF       35.42   209    

TF was formed to challenge the domination of UPA.  Even though TF and NDA was far off on many issues they formed tactical alliances to defeat UPA.  This worked very well and the UPA was held to a less than majority of seats even though it won the popular vote by a significant margin.  


1991
NDA   20.83    124
UPA   38.39    260
TF      28.14    138

NDA and TF had a falling out which led to the 1991 elections.  All in all the three fronts were equally hostile to each other and UPA pulled out a victory mostly as a result of the sympathy vote for the assassination of INC leader Rajeev Gandhi.  Note how the UPA gained seats even as it lost vote share.  This is due to lack of tactical alliances at the grassroots level between NDA and TF.



1996
NDA   25.16    196
UPA   29.88    144
TF      28.62    173

Even though NDA had the least amount of votes it had the most seats because of the fact that NDA strength was more concentrated and was able to translate votes into seats.  Also the anti-UPA sentiment plus the perception that the three fronts were around equal strength meant that there were a lot of anti-UPA tactical voting which meant that it ended up with the least seats despite having the largest vote share.



1998
NDA   37.21    254
UPA   29.93    167
TF      22.60    100

The TF government fell due a falling out with UPA and as a result portions of the TF split from the TF and joined to NDA, especially in places where its main rivals were UPA.  Smaller pieces of TF in places were the NDA as strong joined UPA.  Also UPA itself had some defections in places where it saw TF as the main enemy and went over the NDA.  The NDA benefited from this realignment and lack of local UPA-TF coordination to stop NDA to come close to a majority on its own.  



1999
NDA   40.86    303
UPA   34.45    140
TF      15.40      79

An early election was called due to the falling out a regional party of the NDA bloc with the NDA which led to realignment of political forces.  There were more TF defections to NDA, and while the polls show the NDA was headed for a majority, UPA and TF spend as much time attacking each other as attacking NDA vying to be the NDA alternative.  As a result NDA got a majority with a greater vote share.



2004
NDA   36.29    188
UPA   36.06    222
TF      15.61    107

The election started with NDA being viewed as invincible and headed for a 330 seats majority.  While UPA and TF did not form an alliance, the threat of a permanent  NDA majority and bitter memories of 1999 finally triggered tactical alliances at the ground level between UPA and TF.  As a result even though NDA had a greater share of the vote it got fewer seats than UPA and lost over 100 seats from 1999 based on a small loss of vote share.



2009
NDA   24.20    158
UPA   36.94    263
TF      22.73      83
FF       6.72       27

The election started with the perception that UPA and NDA were neck-to-neck despite significant defections from the NDA to TF or UPA.  UPA’s relationship with TF had been strained but portions of the TF still had bitter memories of 1999 and formed the FF as a pro-UPA anti-NDA alliance dedicated to supporting UPA after the election.  The remaining TF also had bitter memories of 1999 and did not stop various tactical alliances with UPA in places where NDA was a threat.  This worked very well in some places but not others.  Overall this helped UPA win a surprising large victory despite a very small gain in vote share.



What does this mean in 2014?  First, there is not real pre-election TF anymore as most TF components seem to have become free agents that will re-construct a post-election TF if they can grab power.  Some TF members joined NDA but NDA also lost some members as well.    In theory it is SP, Left Front, AIADMK, BJD, JD(U), JD(S), JVM and AGP as TF although they are not really campaigning together.  We can view the new FF as BSP and TMC.  We can use 1996 as a model where an unpopular UPA government is running for reelection and assume that there will be anti-UPA local tactical voting.   But unlike 1996 there is a perception that NDA is very strong this time.  So most local tactical voting could very well go against NDA.  So the question is how strong are the memories of 1998 and 1999 in various non-UPA non-NDA parties especially given a polarizing figure like Modi.  Also the perception of Modi as an effective politician might work to his disadvantage in terms of tactical voting as these TF parties might fear a permanent NDA majority.   So using this style historical analysis it is also very possible that NDA will gain significantly in terms of votes but its seat gains might be disappointing.  

[Zuza]

The Modi wave in WB, while being unlikely to generate much in terms of seats, seems to be helping the Left Front which was left for dead as it has been hemorrhaging cadres at the grassroots level as a permanent Left Front government seems to be replaced by a permanent TMC government.  The BJP, unlike in 2009, is running candidates in all 42 seats which will cut into the TMC and to some extent INC vote based.  If Left Front can hold on to its 2009 vote share then it might manage to get 20 seats and beat back the TMC landslide.

I thought TMC and INC will benefit more from BJP strengthening, because larger share of their voters are Muslims who won't vote for BJP, especially Modi-led, under any circumstances.

[jaichind]

The Modi wave in WB, while being unlikely to generate much in terms of seats, seems to be helping the Left Front which was left for dead as it has been hemorrhaging cadres at the grassroots level as a permanent Left Front government seems to be replaced by a permanent TMC government.  The BJP, unlike in 2009, is running candidates in all 42 seats which will cut into the TMC and to some extent INC vote based.  If Left Front can hold on to its 2009 vote share then it might manage to get 20 seats and beat back the TMC landslide.

I thought TMC and INC will benefit more from BJP strengthening, because larger share of their voters are Muslims who won't vote for BJP, especially Modi-led, under any circumstances.

Well, in this case in WB the voter base traditionally has been split into Left Front and anti-Left Front.  Even when the Left Front was defeated in 2009 federal elections and the 2011 assembly elections it retained a voter base of 40%-45% even as there has been some realignment toward TMC.  This time if the BJP should increase its vote share it will come at the expense of the non-Muslim non-Left Front vote bloc.  That can only come from TMC or INC and can only help Left Front.

[Sbane]

The Modi wave in WB, while being unlikely to generate much in terms of seats, seems to be helping the Left Front which was left for dead as it has been hemorrhaging cadres at the grassroots level as a permanent Left Front government seems to be replaced by a permanent TMC government.  The BJP, unlike in 2009, is running candidates in all 42 seats which will cut into the TMC and to some extent INC vote based.  If Left Front can hold on to its 2009 vote share then it might manage to get 20 seats and beat back the TMC landslide.

I thought TMC and INC will benefit more from BJP strengthening, because larger share of their voters are Muslims who won't vote for BJP, especially Modi-led, under any circumstances.

Well, in this case in WB the voter base traditionally has been split into Left Front and anti-Left Front.  Even when the Left Front was defeated in 2009 federal elections and the 2011 assembly elections it retained a voter base of 40%-45% even as there has been some realignment toward TMC.  This time if the BJP should increase its vote share it will come at the expense of the non-Muslim non-Left Front vote bloc.  That can only come from TMC or INC and can only help Left Front.

I agree. Left front voters aren't going to vote for the BJP. TMC won in 2009 and 2011 by winning many of the voters who are staunchly anti-left and vote strategically against them. Many of these people will be voting for the BJP this time around.

[jaichind]

I thought I write a piece on "Women of India politics" since it seems to be the women politicians which will be so critical in the post-election scene.

Obviously we have Sonia Gandhi, president of INC and chairperson of UPA.



Who for the last 10 years has been the tallest political leader of India.  Daughter-in-law and wife of former PMs, she is also likely to be a mother of a future India PM.  After this election it seems Sonia is working toward retirement and transitioning leadership of INC to Rahul.



We also have Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Sonia Gandhi and sister of Rahul Gandhi.  



It seems that she is a lot more into and a better at the family tradition, politics.  She is often the behind the scenes person and as early as 1998 when she was 26 she was the one coming up with speeches that Sonia was giving around the country in the 1998 election.  If the UPA completely bombs in this election it might fall on Priyanka to revive INC and lead it back to power in the future.  One thing that might get in the way are allegations of corruption by her husband Robert Vadra.  Until he is cleared of such charges it might get in the way of her taking a more active role.


Then we come to the three women satraps that dominate UP, WB and TN.



Three time CM of UP Mayawati leader of the BSP



She has had a record of having alliances with as well as having back stabbed INC, BJP and SP.  He rise in the BSP was related to her being close follower of BSP founder of Kanshi Ram.  It was rumored that she had a relationship with Kanshi Ram which gave her a leg up into the leadership of the BSP but no doubt it was Mayawati that grew the BSP into a powerhouse in UP as well as creating pockets of influences all over India.



We also have Mamata Banerjee, current CM of WB as well as leader of the TMC.



Mamata Banerjee is the only dominate women politician that seems to have reached a position of power without being related to, daughter of, or wife/mistress of another leading male politician.   She rose within the ranks of the INC all on her own and when she felt that the INC was too weak on the Left Front broke with the INC in 1997 and formed the TMC.  She has since formed two alliances with the BJP and INC each and betrayed both twice as well.



Then we have Jayalalitha who is the three time and current CM of TN as well as leader of AIADMK


 
Jayalalitha was the mistress of AIADMK founder and leader MGR.  When MGR passed away AIADMK was split in to a faction led by MGR's wife Janaki Ramachandran and one led by Jayalalitha.  Jayalalitha seems to be the better poltiican and eventually the  Janaki Ramachandran led faction merged with the faction led by Jayalalitha.  AIADMK under Jayalalitha has formed alliances with INC and BJP several times only to betray them each time.  


One thing one can say looking at the pictures of these three satraps is that at least they are not gaining political power with their looks.  Of course Jayalalitha was a successful actress when she was young and did seem to be reasonably attractive.



But that seems to be many years and pounds ago.



Speaking of attractiveness, of all the current woman MPs, the most attractive has to be Dimple Yadav, wife of current CM of UP Akhilesh Yadav of SP as well as daughter-in-law of SP leader  Mulayam Singh Yadav

 

Frankly Dimple Yadav does not bring much to the political discourse and was really a trophy wife for Akhilesh who was then asked to move into the family trade.


And finally we have Rabri Devi, former CM if Bihar and wife of RJD leader Lalu Yadav



Again, to be frank, Rabri is a simple housewife that dragged into being CM when here husbands political troubles caused him not to be able to be CM anymore.  She being CM of Bihar is really Lalu Yadav being CM by proxy.  In this election cycle she is running for MP because her husband is banned from running due to problems with the law.

[jaichind]

NDTV came out with a poll in AP which is allowed since AP did not vote yet. 

It seems that Muslim consolidation is taking place and now in AP it is YSRCP and TDP-BJP neck-to-neck with INC far behind from a position where TDP-BJP was ahead.  In Telangana, it is TRS and INC neck-to-neck with TDP-BJP in a respectable third but not enough to get much in terms of seats.  INC gained from the last NDTV poll here.  In both cases it seems that certainty of a TDP-BJP alliance consolidated Muslim and to some extent Dalit votes in favor of YSRCP in AP and INC in Telangana.

[jaichind]

A survey of Indian equity and FX investors (mostly of Indian origin but some are from rest of Asia) by investment bank Nomura has yield the following results:

60% think NDA will go over 230 seats
36% think NDA will be 200-230 seats
4% think NDA will be less than 200 seats

This same group feel that market has priced in a 200-230 seat result for NDA and that the Sensex will surge if NDA goes above 230 which meas a fairly stable government.  Of course Sensex will crash if NDA goes below 200 seats as then there will be a very unstable NDA or TF government.

Societe Generale also came out and said that if exit polls show NDA at less than 220 then there will be a market sell off.  They also indicated if exit polls come out with NDA with a strong performance it will be discounted so the market will not rise as investors will wait until the results comes out.  I guess Societe Generale has the same view I do on the momentum argument that even if exit polls are not that accurate if they come out worse than pre-poll surveys then the NDA result might be even worse than exit polls as in such a case exit polls are picking up a decline in NDA while not fulling capturing the extent of the decline.

[jaichind]

Of the three woman satraps, Jayalalitha, Mamata, and Mayawati, it seems more more likely that Jayalalitha will form an alliance with Modi than the other two, for now.  At least that is the perception.    Mamata and Mayawati are launching massive attacks on Modi based on secularism vs communalism while Jayalalitha's attacks on Modi are mostly based on her claims that the TN economic model works better than Gujarat.  This is mostly because Jayalalitha already lost the Muslim vote to DMK and INC so there is no point in burning bridges with Modi.  For Mamata and Mayawati which for both the Muslim vote is still in place but there is subtle concern they will join forces with Modi after the elections, they have to do a full frontal attack on Modi to retain the Muslim vote, lets they lose it to other non-BJP rivals.

[jaichind]

Traditionally, bandits, criminals, and murderers who are men of power often stand for political office since they bring with them money and muscle power need to win.  This is especially true for the more backward parts of UP and Bihar. Sadly, due to changes in election laws many of them who have been convicted to serious crimes could not stand this time.  But worry not,  most of them had their wives stand in their place which achieves the same result.

The most famous of these bandits is Pappu Yadav



Who actually could stand this time as he was released from jail due to lack of evidence.  He will run on the RJD ticket this time.  Just to make sure his wife  Ranjeet Ranjan



who used to be a professional tennis player but them married one of the famous bandits in India will also run on the INC ticket in a seat right next to her husbands.    I guess Pappu is hedging across parties and districts just to make sure he gets into office one way or another.

[MaxQue]

Sadly, due to changes in election laws many of them who have been convicted to serious crimes could not stand this time.

Sadly?

[jaichind]

Sadly, due to changes in election laws many of them who have been convicted to serious crimes could not stand this time.

Sadly?

I meant that as a cynical remark.

[jaichind]

In WB, there has been a rising escalation of words between Mamata and Modi which has taken up all the political space in the WB campaign.  It is clear what is going on here.  Mamata wants to make sure TMC is seen as the anti-BJP party and consolidate the Muslim vote.  She knows that doing this might polarize votes toward BJP but that suits her as she wants the anti-TMC vote to split between Left Front, BJP and INC as opposed to a concentration of such votes to Left Front.  For BJP they are doing this in hopes of roping in some anti-TMC Left Front voters that see BJP as the way to stop TMC.

[jaichind]

It seems that in Punjab AAP will actually do pretty well.  Initially it seems like SAD-BJP will sweep the Punjab polls.  This surge was blunted when AAP jumped into the fray and hit SAD-BJP with all sorts of attacks on various SAD-BJP scandals in the state government.  Then when INC formed an alliance with PPP and got a bunch of INC heavyweights to contest at the same time turning the race into a referendum on the SAD-BJP state government, the tide shifted to such a point where it seems that INC-PPP will sweep the polls.  Now the AAP surge continues to a point where in some places it is a 3 way race where AAP might win a seat or two, in other places it might take votes away from INC where SAD-BJP might sneak through and in the rest the SAD-BJP might be pushed to third place.