Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013

[minionofmidas]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiriol

So where is this local saint's ward?

[doktorb]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiriol

So where is this local saint's ward?

[doktorb]

All candidates have been selected.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is today. Any predictions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would assume an easy to comfortable Plaid hold.

[countydurhamboy]

This constituency seems to change every time it's member stands down. I'll predict narrow Labour gain.

Is this seat counting on the night?

[You kip if you want to...]

Polls have just closed.

All parties predicting a Plaid hold. (Boring.)

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-08-01/plaid-cymru-expected-to-hold-ynys-mon/

[Hifly]

I don't understand how it's a Plaid hold because the constituency has changed hands every time it's member stands down so this must mean a Labour gain! Anything else would be ludicrous.

[countydurhamboy]

Reports on twitter say easy Plaid win and UKIP a strong 3rd.

[You kip if you want to...]

Reports on twitter say easy Plaid win and UKIP a strong 3rd.

Wouldn't have thought UKIP would do that well.

So, Labour second?

[You kip if you want to...]

42.5% turnout. Impressive, given that it's an assembly by-election that's barely been covered.

[countydurhamboy]

Reports on twitter say easy Plaid win and UKIP a strong 3rd.

Wouldn't have thought UKIP would do that well.

So, Labour second?

Labour second. Nor did I, could be ramping though. I would guess it would be those voters who want to abolish Welsh Assembly, voting UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This constituency seems to change every time it's member stands down

Only at Westminster: it has been a safe Plaid seat in the Assembly though has only ever had one member.

[Andrea]

BBC saying it's still close between Labour and UKIP for second place.

The situation at the moment
https://twitter.com/ElliwMai/status/363077730486583296/photo/1

Order of piles is Plaid-Con-UKIP-Lab

[Filuwaúrdjan]

42% is not at all impressive for Anglesey, something that reflects the low profile of the election. UKIP polled well in some divisions earlier this year and the Tory candidate is not exactly strong (remember they came second in 2003 and 2011 - and an ex-Tory came second in 2007 - and, obviously, held the Westminster seat 1979-87. Not all of these voters will have stayed at home) so a strong showing for them makes a lot of sense.

[countydurhamboy]

42% is not at all impressive for Anglesey, something that reflects the low profile of the election. UKIP polled well in some divisions earlier this year and the Tory candidate is not exactly strong (remember they came second in 2003 and 2011 - and an ex-Tory came second in 2007 - and, obviously, held the Westminster seat 1979-87. Not all of these voters will have stayed at home) so a strong showing for them makes a lot of sense.

A strong showing by them is one thing.  But if they beat Labour in a seat they hold at westminster, that is surely a disaster. No excuses.

[You kip if you want to...]

42% is not at all impressive for Anglesey, something that reflects the low profile of the election. UKIP polled well in some divisions earlier this year and the Tory candidate is not exactly strong (remember they came second in 2003 and 2011 - and an ex-Tory came second in 2007 - and, obviously, held the Westminster seat 1979-87. Not all of these voters will have stayed at home) so a strong showing for them makes a lot of sense.

A strong showing by them is one thing.  But if they beat Labour in a seat they hold at westminster, that is surely a disaster. No excuses.

As has been said, Ynys Mon isn't a seat you'd look to for a picture of how the nation's leaning, but a 3rd place finish would be terrible. Nowhere near Bradford West terrible, but still terrible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour do hold the seat at Westminster, but with a candidate who wins because of a considerable personal vote, particularly (if I remember rightly) in some very rural parts of the Island and also on a rather low share of the poll. I would agree that third (again: Labour only finished second here in 1999!) would be disappointing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So this is pretty clearly going to be a very good result for Plaid, which is hardly surprising given candidate quality in a place where it matters almost as much as a party label.

[countydurhamboy]

So this is pretty clearly going to be a very good result for Plaid, which is hardly surprising given candidate quality in a place where it matters almost as much as a party label.

I agree with that. Wonder how much of the UKIP vote is personal for their candidate? Absolute humiliation for the Tories. They always seem to under perform at by elections though, be it local or national; no excuse for this vote however.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, their choice of candidate was certainly deeply odd. Labour just went with a fairly standard type of standard bearer (I've met him before: nice enough, but not exactly going to set the world on fire), but a mildly controversial (locally) paper candidate? When you came second in the last proper election? A bit weird, but then the Anglesey Tories are a weird bunch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I worry that this might be a precedent and that we might see many faces from the gogglebox running in elections.

[countydurhamboy]

PC  58%
Lab 16%
Ukip 14%
Con  9%
soc   2%
LD    1%

Plaid hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that it would have changed the outcome (obviously) but Labour should have picked someone from the Island.

[countydurhamboy]

The Lib Dems only got 309 votes. Have they ever gone that low before?

UKIP share not as high as a I feared.