Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013

[Harry Hayfield]

It is being reported that Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid Cymru, Ynys Mon) is to announce his immediate retirement from Welsh politics and to stand down as the Assembly member. (Source: BBC News  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-229448360

In 2011, he had a majority of 12% over Con and 15% over Lab (and my immediate thoughts are General Election 2001 all over again)

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting because I imagine Labour's in with a shout of making a gain, giving them their first majority in the assembly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If this does actually happen then it's worth remembering that turnout and turnout patterns at Assembly elections generically favour Plaid on the Island (this isn't so with Westminster elections, at which no party is generically the favourite). Still, much (most?) will depend on candidates, as is always the case.

[Harry Hayfield]

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) 1999 - 2011
1999: Plaid 53% Lab 23% Con 19% Lib Dem 5%
2003: Plaid 37% Con 28% Lab 24% Lib Dem 8% UKIP 2%
2007: Plaid 40% Ind (former Con) 23% Lab 17% Con 13% Lib Dem 3% UKIP 3%
2011: Plaid 41% Con 29% Lab 26% Lib Dem 3%

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Local Elections 2004 - 2013
2004: Ind 65% Plaid 22% Lab 6% Lib Dem 4% Con 3%
2008: Ind 55% Plaid 21% Lab 13% Con 5% Lib Dem 4% Rates 2% UKIP 0%
2013: Plaid 32% Ind 32% Lab 17% UKIP 7% Con 6% Lib Dem 5%

[Zanas]

How on Earth do you pronounce "Ieuan" ? I'm curious.

[ObserverIE]

How on Earth do you pronounce "Ieuan" ? I'm curious.

"yoy-an", I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yai an though some people say Yai un.

[doktorb]

Not very scientific, but here's the results for both Cardiff and Westminster recently

[minionofmidas]

"Ieuan"

Needs to be misprinted "Ieuao".

[Harry Hayfield]

Not very scientific, but here's the results for both Cardiff and Westminster recently

Very impressive, but just like Ceredigion I think it is safe to assume that it has different Westminster and Assembly voting patterns

[Harry Hayfield]

Ieuan Wyn Jones formally resigned today (in writing to the Presiding Officer) and the Plaid whip in the Assembly announced that polling will take place on August 1st. That says that Plaid are running scared of Labour on Anglesey.

[Harry Hayfield]

Rhun ap Iowerth (who has been in charge of BBC Wales's election maps since 2003) has announced that he has resigned from the BBC to contest the Plaid nomination for Ynys Mon



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23021568

[You kip if you want to...]

Rhun ap Iowerth (who has been in charge of BBC Wales's election maps since 2003) has announced that he has resigned from the BBC to contest the Plaid nomination for Ynys Mon



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23021568

...Jeremy Vine for PM then?

[Harry Hayfield]

Martin Bell won Tatton in 1997, so why not? There is one other Plaid person seeking the nomination and that is Heledd Fychan who stood in Montgomeryshire at the general election and polled 8.28% (Plaid's highest level of support since 1992)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And thus neatly confirming certain stereotypes, yet again (as if it were needed).

[Andrea]

Labour shortlist

Julia Dobson (a teacher, stood in Isle of Anglesey locals this year)
Daniel ap Eifion Jones (works for some charities, stood in Isle of Anglesey locals this year)
Tal Michael (again. Alun Michael's son. Stood as PCC candidate for North Wales, shortlisted for Arfon 2015 nomination)
Paul Penlington (Denbighshire councillor, the one who wasn't originally declared elected because they put some of his votes in the Tory pile as the 2 candidates have similar surnames; former LD GE Vale of Clwyd candidate)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Although Tal Michael isn't from the Island, he is from an Anglesey family (his father was originally from a village in the west of the Island) which won't hurt.

Daniel ap Eifion Jones stood in the Twrcelyn division and polled significantly worse than the other two Labour candidates.

Julia Dobson stood in the Talybolion division and didn't come close to getting elected.

[Andrea]

Plaid selected Rhun ap Iorwerth. He presents Newyddion9 programme on S4C channel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tal Michael selected for Labour.

[joevsimp]

just had a look at some numbers from 2011

if Labour had taken Ynys Mon, but the regional votes remaining roughly the same*, Plaid would've got an extra list seat, with the Lib Dems losing their only seat in North Wales. Labour would have an overhang of one since they got no list seats.

I'm assuming that they don't go and recalculate the list seats if a byelection changes things in this way?

*Plaid need to stay about 7,000 votes ahead of LD region-wide to keep the final list seat in that fairly improbable situation

[Harry Hayfield]

The Lib Dems have selected Steve Churchman as their candidate for the by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Churchman is a Gwynedd county councillor (represents a rural part of the Eifionydd) and is the usual LibDem candidate for Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

[minionofmidas]

just had a look at some numbers from 2011

if Labour had taken Ynys Mon, but the regional votes remaining roughly the same*, Plaid would've got an extra list seat, with the Lib Dems losing their only seat in North Wales. Labour would have an overhang of one since they got no list seats.

I'm assuming that they don't go and recalculate the list seats if a byelection changes things in this way?

*Plaid need to stay about 7,000 votes ahead of LD region-wide to keep the final list seat in that fairly improbable situation

Alas, no. By-elections are a wholly alien feature to MMP and are not factored into the seat allocation rules at all. They're just there because of tradition. (See also, by-elections in Ireland.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More candidate news.

The Tories have selected the Rev. Neil Fairlamb, who is the Rector of Beaumaris. He stood as a candidate in the Seiriol division in the county council elections and finished sixth of nine candidates (polling 582 votes and missing out on a seat by 313, which was respectable - given the presence of several prominent Beaumaris names on the ballot - but not stunning or anything).

UKIP have selected Nathan Gill, who is a businessman based in Llangefni. He also stood in Seiriol in the county council elections and finished eighth of nine candidates, polling 448 votes (447 off winning a seat).

Roughly 22% of Seiriol's voters gave a vote to Fairlamb and about 17% voted for Gill. In contrast, about 49% voted for Plaid's leading candidate (who was elected, obviously) and about 34% for Labour's top candidate (who was also elected).

[doktorb]

Was going to add pretty much exactly the same thing, KdL, but in Wikipedic form