When will Arkansas vote Democratic in a presidential election?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

According to the Nate Silver app (per wormyguy), Arkansas would not swing Democratic even if the Democratic candidate was to win 50% of whites, 95% of blacks, 80% of Hispanics, 80% of Asians, and 70% of others.  I find myself a tad skeptical of thus; just four years ago, the AR Dems controlled both Senate seats, the statehouse, and 3/4 House seats.  I could see Arkansas returning to the Democrats in 2016 with the right candidate (such as Hillary or Schweitzer) under the right circumstances.  That said, there's probably little to no chance of that happening if neither of them are the nominee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's certainly more likely to next vote Democratic in 2016 then the whole 2020s combined, thanks to Hillary.

[HansOslo]

The Democrats are not going to become the party for white conservatives in the South anytime soon.

For the Democrats to win Arkansas in a presidential election they will need an absolute train wreck of a Republican candidate.

I don’t think Hillary Clinton will be able to do it. Politics have changed too much since the 90s. 

[JerryArkansas]

Being here on the ground, I think the party can rebuild themselves, especially if Asa Hutchinson is a horrible gov like I think he is, we could be back to being a swing state soon, but it will be at least into the 2020 before that will happen.  Hillary can win the state though.

[Niemeyerite]

Not before 2032.

[Mister Mets]

It'll likely be some time.

There is very little precedent for the 2016 Democratic nominee outperforming the 2012 nominee. Obama lost the state by nearly 24 points, so it's a tall order even for someone like Hillary Clinton who has unique appeal in the state.

There is a scenario under which it could happen, but it's way too unlikely to refer to it as a certainty.

Republicans could nominate a far-right loon, who then goes on to make several gaffes. And it could be worse if they run against a reasonably popular incumbent 45th President. This might happen in 2020 if an establishment candidate loses in 2016, allowing the likes of Erick Erickson to demand a true conservative for a nominee.

Otherwise, Arkansas may be lost to Democrats. Just like Utah and Wyoming. Some states just stick with one of the political parties for 13 straight elections and counting.

[Smid]

Those figures don't make sense to me. If the Democrat breaks even on the White vote, and wins the Black vote, Hispanic vote, Asian vote and Other vote, who is left voting for the Republican to win? The best they can do is half of the Whites, and less than half of everyone else... I can't see how those figures can add up to less than half the overall electorate for the Democrat?

[ElectionsGuy]

Those figures don't make sense to me. If the Democrat breaks even on the White vote, and wins the Black vote, Hispanic vote, Asian vote and Other vote, who is left voting for the Republican to win? The best they can do is half of the Whites, and less than half of everyone else... I can't see how those figures can add up to less than half the overall electorate for the Democrat?

He means nationwide. The white vote is so republican in Arkansas that it would still carry the state. An example is that Romney won the white vote probably in the low 70's. Nationwide that would be low 60's for Arkansas assuming it swings with the nation. So even with the black vote in there Arkansas will still go republican.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The Silver app is flawed because it limits you to direct national swings with different groups. Hillary won't do much better than Obama with Northeastern and Western whites (in fact she may do worse with the latter, looking at CO polls), but is likely to do much better with Southern whites, especially in the border states.

[ElectionsGuy]

People can't seem to accept the fact that Arkansas has swung hard right lately, and will probably stay that way. Yes, it was once one of Bill Clinton's best states and yes the state had been controlled by democrats but this state is just adapting the the south. The House of Representatives is controlled by republicans 4/4. The Senate seat for 2014 is a toss-up according to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the governor next year is also more likely to be a republican. Also Blanche Lincoln got nailed (although it was 2010) in the Senate race against John Boozman.  Anyways I just went on a little rant, but people really need to accept the fact. I think Hillary might possibly be the last chance, and at this point, they might have a hard time voting for her IF she's even on the ballot.

By the way, here's the link to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball if you haven't seen it yet.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[HansOslo]

I think Hillary might possibly be the last chance, and at this point, they might have a hard time voting for her IF she's even on the ballot.

I don’t understand why people assume that Hillary Clinton will perform that much better in the South than other Democratic nominees.

There are of course a lot of polls that indicate that she is an incredibly strong candidate, in a lot of Republican states. But I don’t think it will stay that way once the campaign starts. She will have to take positions on a lot of issues that she has been able to avoid whilst being State Secretary.

I don’t think there are any substantial differences between Obama and Hillary on policy, and she doesn’t sound like a cultural conservative, like Clinton or Schweitzer. Hillary Clinton was not the Governor of Arkansas, her husband was. And that was more than 20 years ago. 

Not to mention how Arkansas was far more of a Democratic state back in 1996, when the Democrats carried it for the last time. As of today most of the congressional delegation is Republican, and the Republicans control the State Legislature.  Arkansas just isn’t the same place politically that it were when Bill Clinton ran for President.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mo and Ark and WVa has been replaced by CO, NH, and NV. Ironically, working class find themselves voting for the same GOP that rely on cheap labor.

[Mister Mets]

People can't seem to accept the fact that Arkansas has swung hard right lately, and will probably stay that way. Yes, it was once one of Bill Clinton's best states and yes the state had been controlled by democrats but this state is just adapting the the south. The House of Representatives is controlled by republicans 4/4. The Senate seat for 2014 is a toss-up according to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the governor next year is also more likely to be a republican. Also Blanche Lincoln got nailed (although it was 2010) in the Senate race against John Boozman.  Anyways I just went on a little rant, but people really need to accept the fact. I think Hillary might possibly be the last chance, and at this point, they might have a hard time voting for her IF she's even on the ballot.

By the way, here's the link to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball if you haven't seen it yet.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

I wanted to call BS on Arkansas being one of Bill Clinton's best states, but it literally was his best state in '92. It was his seventh best state in '96.

It's been a remarkable turnaround since then, although there were extenuating circumstances (strong third party candidate, the favorite son effect is bigger in small states.)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Arkansas was the only state in 1992 to give any candidate an absolute majority of the vote, IIRC.

Considering everything remains as is, Hillary is literally the Dems' only chance at taking AR for a long time. I'm not even sure she could win there, and the favorite son (daughter?) effect is probably much weaker there, considering she hasn't been First Lady of the state in over 20 years.

AR at this point is close to unreachable for the Democrats, and it will be that way for a long time.

[illegaloperation]

Maybe Clinton can win it once. It can be a phenomena like Obama winning Indiana in 2008.

Personally, I think that this is a waste of time. In the foreseeable future, Arkansas will be out of reach for any Democratic candidate (except for maybe Clinton).

Better time can be spend getting North Carolina back and cracking Georgia: a gain future Democratic presidents can build on.

[pbrower2a]

Barack Obama lost Arkansas in 2008 and 2012 by margins similar to those by which George McGovern lost the state in 1972. In 1972, Republicans cast George McGovern as a dangerous radical of dubious loyalty to America nationwide and won nationwide. That year they won Connecticut, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by similar margins, too. In 1976 the Democrats nominated a Southern moderate and won Arkansas decisively.

In 2008 and 2012 Republicans tried to cast Barack Obama as a dangerous radical of dubious loyalty, and got desired results in many Southern states. Barack Obama lost Arkansas by margins typical of huge R landslides for a Republican nominee for President as in 1972 and 1984. That appeal failed in 2008 and 2012 in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast.   

Four years can make a huge difference in what states are in play and which ones are not. Nominees obviously matter.

[ElectionsGuy]

Barack Obama lost Arkansas in 2008 and 2012 by margins similar to those by which George McGovern lost the state in 1972. In 1972, Republicans cast George McGovern as a dangerous radical of dubious loyalty to America nationwide and won nationwide. That year they won Connecticut, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by similar margins, too. In 1976 the Democrats nominated a Southern moderate and won Arkansas decisively.

In 2008 and 2012 Republicans tried to cast Barack Obama as a dangerous radical of dubious loyalty, and got desired results in many Southern states. Barack Obama lost Arkansas by margins typical of huge R landslides for a Republican nominee for President as in 1972 and 1984. That appeal failed in 2008 and 2012 in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast.   

Four years can make a huge difference in what states are in play and which ones are not. Nominees obviously matter.

True, but did they cast Blanche Lincoln as a dangerous radical of dubious loyalty the second time? John Kerry? Al Gore? Bush still won Arkansas with fair margins just not nearly the amount of McCain or Romney, and it has only trended more republican over the years. Maybe it will change, but I can't see it happening unless Hillary gets a 400+ electoral landslide because this is a state that just went R+27.

[JerryArkansas]

What you need to remember is the people on the ground.  I am now going to tell you guys about two people I know who have voted for the winner in races over the 6 years that I have known them.  I consider the two the average Arkansas voter.  Both like democrats, but hate obama.  I asked them who they would support in 2016 and both said hillary.  I also have done some local polling in my county and surrounding ones and found that she is getting about 45 to 55 percent against different people.

[ElectionsGuy]

What you need to remember is the people on the ground.  I am now going to tell you guys about two people I know who have voted for the winner in races over the 6 years that I have known them.  I consider the two the average Arkansas voter.  Both like democrats, but hate obama.  I asked them who they would support in 2016 and both said hillary.  I also have done some local polling in my county and surrounding ones and found that she is getting about 45 to 55 percent against different people.

Interesting, I'm not saying she can't win Arkansas. With a Clinton on the ticket it's definitely possible. I think if she does run Arkansas will be either Lean R or Toss-Up. Just curious, which county do you live in? 

[JerryArkansas]

I am in Craighead County.

[barfbag]

With all things being equal, Arkansas would be about 58-41 right now but it's a huge difference from where it once was. While trends don't go on forever, the time has now come where Arkansas has joined the rest of the deep south in being a solid Republican state. Sure they might elect Democratic governors, but Presidential Elections are much different because of the issues included at the federal level. I don't see it voting Democrat anymore than Mississippi or West Virginia.

[barfbag]

What you need to remember is the people on the ground.  I am now going to tell you guys about two people I know who have voted for the winner in races over the 6 years that I have known them.  I consider the two the average Arkansas voter.  Both like democrats, but hate obama.  I asked them who they would support in 2016 and both said hillary.  I also have done some local polling in my county and surrounding ones and found that she is getting about 45 to 55 percent against different people.

Interesting, I'm not saying she can't win Arkansas. With a Clinton on the ticket it's definitely possible. I think if she does run Arkansas will be either Lean R or Toss-Up. Just curious, which county do you live in? 

Arkansas hasn't been winnable for the Clintons for some time I suspect. They couldn't carry it for Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton would have to answer for abandoning Arkansas for New York as if she were too good for them. I don't see her doing better than 40% there.

[ElectionsGuy]

I am in Craighead County.

Oh, so you live in a pretty anti-Obama area. I'm thinking Hillary could be competitive, especially in Eastern and Southern Arkansas where Bill Clinton got much of the vote. But still much of this is early and while they may have much respect for Hillary, that could change by election day 2016 IF she runs.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I don't perceive Clinton as a Southerner, and I doubt anyone else in the south will either, so she probably has just as much chance as anyone else.

[ElectionsGuy]

What you need to remember is the people on the ground.  I am now going to tell you guys about two people I know who have voted for the winner in races over the 6 years that I have known them.  I consider the two the average Arkansas voter.  Both like democrats, but hate obama.  I asked them who they would support in 2016 and both said hillary.  I also have done some local polling in my county and surrounding ones and found that she is getting about 45 to 55 percent against different people.

Interesting, I'm not saying she can't win Arkansas. With a Clinton on the ticket it's definitely possible. I think if she does run Arkansas will be either Lean R or Toss-Up. Just curious, which county do you live in? 

Arkansas hasn't been winnable for the Clintons for some time I suspect. They couldn't carry it for Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton would have to answer for abandoning Arkansas for New York as if she were too good for them. I don't see her doing better than 40% there.

I don't think she could win there either, but I think she would be a little more competitive than a generic D or a Barack Obama. I do think she could crack 40%, possibly about 42%, but it would be the ceiling for the Democrats in the new Arkansas we know today. I'm listening to what Jerry Arkansas is saying and from what he's saying it might actually be competitive, but I still don't think it would elect even Hillary, never mind I say toss-up, what was I thinking. Probably lean R or Likely R.