When will Arkansas vote Democratic in a presidential election?

[DS0816]

According to the Nate Silver app (per wormyguy), Arkansas would not swing Democratic even if the Democratic candidate was to win 50% of whites, 95% of blacks, 80% of Hispanics, 80% of Asians, and 70% of others.  I find myself a tad skeptical of thus; just four years ago, the AR Dems controlled both Senate seats, the statehouse, and 3/4 House seats.  I could see Arkansas returning to the Democrats in 2016 with the right candidate (such as Hillary or Schweitzer) under the right circumstances.  That said, there's probably little to no chance of that happening if neither of them are the nominee.

Arkansas females pissed on Barack Obama by dropping their 2008 Democratic support down to 39 percent after giving 49 percent of their vote to John Kerry in 2004. Difference of course was that Hillary Clinton, who would have won the state in a Democratic pickup had she been her party nominee, wasn't on the ballot. This is the state with those PUMAs.

Good thing about Obama was a re-route to the presidency that meant winning Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, making him the first Democrat, with at least two elections, to win the state every time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Ark. used to be a state that backed all prevailing Democrats. The same used to be true with Missouri and Texas. And on the Republican side, the same used to be with New Hampshire (which didn't carry for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004) and Iowa (which didn't carry for George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988). Things change.

If we could see a Democrat win a 40-state landslide, I wouldn't mind Arkansas being one of ten states siding with the losing Republican. Just as this state did with losing Democrats in 1928, 1952, and 1956. Arkansas is not a pivotal state. It did vote with the winner in the nine elections of 1972 to 2004, but it shifted in opposite direction from the country in 2008 (resentment of the PUMAs; men held their Democratic vote, from 2004 and 2008, steady) and was way off again in 2012 (I still laugh at the notion that Mitt Romney, the type of Republican who ran in the wrong decade, carried any states in the south).

[JerryArkansas]

I just had my monthly polling with my two friends, and right now, both still want hillary, and one of them now supporting bill halter for Governor.

[cheesepizza]

Hilary has a fighting chance here.

[barfbag]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

[JerryArkansas]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

I have asked people about this, and where mad at her, but now have forgiven her and her popularity is pretty high here.  Also, reps will take us for avantage like they did with florida last year, and lose.

[barfbag]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

I have asked people about this, and where mad at her, but now have forgiven her and her popularity is pretty high here.  Also, reps will take us for avantage like they did with florida last year, and lose.

Arkansas seems too steep a mountain for her but you're from there and have great insight. I don't see her getting higher than 44%.

[HansOslo]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

I have asked people about this, and where mad at her, but now have forgiven her and her popularity is pretty high here.  Also, reps will take us for avantage like they did with florida last year, and lose.

There is a big difference between Arkansas and Florida.  Florida is a swing state with a slight Republican tilt. Arkansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation.

[JerryArkansas]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

I have asked people about this, and where mad at her, but now have forgiven her and her popularity is pretty high here.  Also, reps will take us for avantage like they did with florida last year, and lose.

There is a big difference between Arkansas and Florida.  Florida is a swing state with a slight Republican tilt. Arkansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation.

the only reason we are so right is because of Obama.  Romney was a horrible candidate, against any one else, state would have voted for him with about 51%.  After Obama we should go to about where GA or IN is right now, where it can flip with hillary.  With out her, we would flip, given the hispanic growth in the state, in about 2040 or so.

[HansOslo]

She will be asked why she abandoned Arkansas for New York as if it had promises of bigger and better dreams. Republicans may campaign there if she runs and they will be successful.

I have asked people about this, and where mad at her, but now have forgiven her and her popularity is pretty high here.  Also, reps will take us for avantage like they did with florida last year, and lose.

There is a big difference between Arkansas and Florida.  Florida is a swing state with a slight Republican tilt. Arkansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation.

the only reason we are so right is because of Obama.  Romney was a horrible candidate, against any one else, state would have voted for him with about 51%.  After Obama we should go to about where GA or IN is right now, where it can flip with hillary.  With out her, we would flip, given the hispanic growth in the state, in about 2040 or so.

I am not really sure that is the case. There isn’t a very large amount of minorities in Arkansas. According to Wikipedia the state is about 80% white. I don’t know the state that well, but I doubt there is that many urban liberals either. That means that the components that are pushing Georgia towards the Democrats aren’t present in Arkansas, at least not to the same extent. To win Arkansas, the Democrats will need to win a lot of white churchgoing conservative people, and the Democrats haven’t been able to do that since Bill Clinton was on the ticket. Hillary Clinton might be able to do it, but I don’t think so.

You are probably right that Obama was one of the main reasons Romney won the state with 60% of the vote. In more neutral years it looks like Arkansas is more of a 55% -45 % Republican state (again according to Wikipedia). Maybe it will revert back to that in 2016, but that depends on who the nominees are.

Arkansas was a bit slower than other Southern states in turning Republican on the state level. But now that they control the legislature and the Congressional delegation is overwhelmingly Republican, I don’t see the Democrats coming back any time soon.

[JerryArkansas]

I am not really sure that is the case. There isn’t a very large amount of minorities in Arkansas. According to Wikipedia the state is about 80% white. I don’t know the state that well, but I doubt there is that many urban liberals either. That means that the components that are pushing Georgia towards the Democrats aren’t present in Arkansas, at least not to the same extent. To win Arkansas, the Democrats will need to win a lot of white churchgoing conservative people, and the Democrats haven’t been able to do that since Bill Clinton was on the ticket. Hillary Clinton might be able to do it, but I don’t think so.

That 80% number is old, right now, the state as of 2010 Census, is 74.8% or so white.  14.6% Black, and 6.2% Hispanic.  From 2000 to 2010, almost all of the Growth in the state was from hispanics, and I don't see that slowing down soon.  There are more white Liberal than you think, especially in Little Rock.  Also, remember, two of Arkansas congressional districts are trending dem.

You are probably right that Obama was one of the main reasons Romney won the state with 60% of the vote. In more neutral years it looks like Arkansas is more of a 55% -45 % Republican state (again according to Wikipedia). Maybe it will revert back to that in 2016, but that depends on who the nominees are.

I will give you that it really depends on the nominee in whether or not arkansas goes dem.

Arkansas was a bit slower than other Southern states in turning Republican on the state level. But now that they control the legislature and the Congressional delegation is overwhelmingly Republican, I don’t see the Democrats coming back any time soon.

You should remember that rep only have 51 seats in the house.  There are a lot of Akin type reps who will make comments over the next few years, so the dems have a chance to recover the house.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I doubt Arkansas would carry for Hillary Clinton, but I could be wrong.  Hillary was never as popular as Bill in Arkansas; her refusal to use her married name while campaigning was one of the reasons Clinton was not re-elected Governor in 1980.  Hillary did not begin to call herself "Hillary Clinton" until after Clinton's 1980 re-election defeat.  (That defeat, by the way, cannot be blamed on Reagan; Arkansas went for Reagan by the barest of margins, and only because of controversy over Cuban refugees relocated to Fort Smith, AR.)

The shift in white voters to the Republicans is not balanced.  When you speak of white voters in Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and much of Missouri outside of the major metropolitan areas, you are talking about white voters of Anglo-Saxon and/or Scot-Irish descent.  These white voters have very little ethnic attachment; they consider themselves, for the most part, to be "Americans", and are not descended from the waves of immigrants from the 19th and 20th centuries.  They are likely to be Protestant, and of a conservative denomination.  They have cultural outlooks that are more conservative than even groups such as Italian-Americans in the Northeast and Midwest, who have generally been the most Republican of the Catholic immigrant groups of the Ellis Island immigrants.  THESE white voters make up a disproportionate shift toward the GOP at all levels to where it rises to the level of a realignment.  Losing THESE voters is why Arkansas is now Republican at all levels, why West Virginia is next, and why Missouri is no longer a true swing state.  The shift of the Anglo-Saxon and Scot-Irish white voter in the upper South (save for Virginia and North Carolina) and Border States has left the Democrats, for the moment, with no real pathway back to a majority, barring demographic change.

[Suburbia]

Arkansas will in 2016. Hillary fits their style of Democrats. Working class appeal.

[IceSpear]

Unless the GOP nominates a joke like Trump/Palin/Cruz, not anytime soon. Hillary's best scenario is coming within single digits.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Wow, crazy how much a toxic midterm result changes everyone's opinion.

Anyway, it will heavily depend on what direction the Democratic Party goes in the next few decades.  The Democratic Party of the '80s is not THAT much different than the party of today, at least not in terms of its campaigns or lip service, and it did fine in the state back then.  If the Dems go the Elizabeth Warren route and campaign on populist ideas (pretty much hammer the GOP as the party of Wall Street, a rigged system that screws over the working class and tax cuts for the rich that limit services that poor folks need) rather than their current style (motivate women to vote by painting the GOP as sexist, motivate Blacks to vote by painting the GOP as racist, motivate young people to vote by painting the GOP as out of touch culturally, motivate Hispanics to vote by painting the GOP as xenophobic, etc. ... Pretty much anything but talk about what they actually want to do, which is raise taxes and increase regulation), then they'll definitely become competitive again.  Until then, what's AR's motivation to vote for a party that its voters (rightly or wrongly) believe has abandoned most issues they might care about and actively insult a lot of their views?

[Stranger in a strange land]

When the coalitions change.

[RogueBeaver]

When the coalitions change.

[hopper]

According to the Nate Silver app (per wormyguy), Arkansas would not swing Democratic even if the Democratic candidate was to win 50% of whites, 95% of blacks, 80% of Hispanics, 80% of Asians, and 70% of others.  I find myself a tad skeptical of thus; just four years ago, the AR Dems controlled both Senate seats, the statehouse, and 3/4 House seats.  I could see Arkansas returning to the Democrats in 2016 with the right candidate (such as Hillary or Schweitzer) under the right circumstances.  That said, there's probably little to no chance of that happening if neither of them are the nominee.

Arkansas females pissed on Barack Obama by dropping their 2008 Democratic support down to 39 percent after giving 49 percent of their vote to John Kerry in 2004. Difference of course was that Hillary Clinton, who would have won the state in a Democratic pickup had she been her party nominee, wasn't on the ballot. This is the state with those PUMAs.

Good thing about Obama was a re-route to the presidency that meant winning Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, making him the first Democrat, with at least two elections, to win the state every time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Ark. used to be a state that backed all prevailing Democrats. The same used to be true with Missouri and Texas. And on the Republican side, the same used to be with New Hampshire (which didn't carry for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004) and Iowa (which didn't carry for George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988). Things change.

If we could see a Democrat win a 40-state landslide, I wouldn't mind Arkansas being one of ten states siding with the losing Republican. Just as this state did with losing Democrats in 1928, 1952, and 1956. Arkansas is not a pivotal state. It did vote with the winner in the nine elections of 1972 to 2004, but it shifted in opposite direction from the country in 2008 (resentment of the PUMAs; men held their Democratic vote, from 2004 and 2008, steady) and was way off again in 2012 (I still laugh at the notion that Mitt Romney, the type of Republican who ran in the wrong decade, carried any states in the south).

Yeah Romney should have ran in the 1980's. But "The South" really didn't take a liking to Obama ever except for NC.  VA doesn't count because of NOVA and NOVA is part of the Northeast now because of its proximity to MD.

[hopper]

It'll likely be some time.

There is very little precedent for the 2016 Democratic nominee outperforming the 2012 nominee. Obama lost the state by nearly 24 points, so it's a tall order even for someone like Hillary Clinton who has unique appeal in the state.

There is a scenario under which it could happen, but it's way too unlikely to refer to it as a certainty.

Republicans could nominate a far-right loon, who then goes on to make several gaffes. And it could be worse if they run against a reasonably popular incumbent 45th President. This might happen in 2020 if an establishment candidate loses in 2016, allowing the likes of Erick Erickson to demand a true conservative for a nominee.

Otherwise, Arkansas may be lost to Democrats. Just like Utah and Wyoming. Some states just stick with one of the political parties for 13 straight elections and counting.

More like a true crazy or a little wacky.

[Thunderbird is the word]

According to the Nate Silver app (per wormyguy), Arkansas would not swing Democratic even if the Democratic candidate was to win 50% of whites, 95% of blacks, 80% of Hispanics, 80% of Asians, and 70% of others.  I find myself a tad skeptical of thus; just four years ago, the AR Dems controlled both Senate seats, the statehouse, and 3/4 House seats.  I could see Arkansas returning to the Democrats in 2016 with the right candidate (such as Hillary or Schweitzer) under the right circumstances.  That said, there's probably little to no chance of that happening if neither of them are the nominee.

Arkansas females pissed on Barack Obama by dropping their 2008 Democratic support down to 39 percent after giving 49 percent of their vote to John Kerry in 2004. Difference of course was that Hillary Clinton, who would have won the state in a Democratic pickup had she been her party nominee, wasn't on the ballot. This is the state with those PUMAs.

Good thing about Obama was a re-route to the presidency that meant winning Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, making him the first Democrat, with at least two elections, to win the state every time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Ark. used to be a state that backed all prevailing Democrats. The same used to be true with Missouri and Texas. And on the Republican side, the same used to be with New Hampshire (which didn't carry for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004) and Iowa (which didn't carry for George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988). Things change.

If we could see a Democrat win a 40-state landslide, I wouldn't mind Arkansas being one of ten states siding with the losing Republican. Just as this state did with losing Democrats in 1928, 1952, and 1956. Arkansas is not a pivotal state. It did vote with the winner in the nine elections of 1972 to 2004, but it shifted in opposite direction from the country in 2008 (resentment of the PUMAs; men held their Democratic vote, from 2004 and 2008, steady) and was way off again in 2012 (I still laugh at the notion that Mitt Romney, the type of Republican who ran in the wrong decade, carried any states in the south).

Yeah Romney should have ran in the 1980's. But "The South" really didn't take a liking to Obama ever except for NC.  VA doesn't count because of NOVA and NOVA is part of the Northeast now because of its proximity to MD.

Honestly even now against a different type of Democrat I could see Romney doing poorly in the south. The biggest landslide scenario for Democrats in 2008 i've often imagined is John Edwards vs Romney if Edwards had somehow never met Rielle Hunter. In the wake of the financial collapse I could almost see the populist Edwards sweeping the south against a rich Mormon from Massachussetts.

[Türkisblau]

Wow, crazy how much a toxic midterm result changes everyone's opinion.

Anyway, it will heavily depend on what direction the Democratic Party goes in the next few decades.  The Democratic Party of the '80s is not THAT much different than the party of today, at least not in terms of its campaigns or lip service, and it did fine in the state back then.  If the Dems go the Elizabeth Warren route and campaign on populist ideas (pretty much hammer the GOP as the party of Wall Street, a rigged system that screws over the working class and tax cuts for the rich that limit services that poor folks need) rather than their current style (motivate women to vote by painting the GOP as sexist, motivate Blacks to vote by painting the GOP as racist, motivate young people to vote by painting the GOP as out of touch culturally, motivate Hispanics to vote by painting the GOP as xenophobic, etc. ... Pretty much anything but talk about what they actually want to do, which is raise taxes and increase regulation), then they'll definitely become competitive again.  Until then, what's AR's motivation to vote for a party that its voters (rightly or wrongly) believe has abandoned most issues they might care about and actively insult a lot of their views?

I usually disagree with you but this was actually a very sensible post and something that I've said before and will continue to say.

[7,052,770]

2020 in Hillary's Reaganesque reelection landslide