Official New England 2014 Megathread

[windjammer]

Sawx, can you explain me how the NH has succesfully given a 3/4 majority to the gop and 2 years after a dem majority please?

[free my dawg]

House seats are up every two years, and Republicans governed far to the right. They decimated funding for secondary education, tried to pass an Arizona-style immigration law here of all places, and basically governed like we were in Oklahoma. Add to the fact that O'Brien seemed more interested in RINO hunting than keeping his majority (two moderates in the party would have probably won if they didn't split the big Republican town off of the district) and you have a hilarious amount of incompetence.

The scary thing is Democrats might actually tie for the Senate if Sanborn defers to someone else for Governor. He's in a lot of hot water lately and only won by a razor-thin margin.

[windjammer]

House seats are up every two years, and Republicans governed far to the right. They decimated funding for secondary education, tried to pass an Arizona-style immigration law here of all places, and basically governed like we were in Oklahoma. Add to the fact that O'Brien seemed more interested in RINO hunting than keeping his majority (two moderates in the party would have probably won if they didn't split the big Republican town off of the district) and you have a hilarious amount of incompetence.

The scary thing is Democrats might actually tie for the Senate if Sanborn defers to someone else for Governor. He's in a lot of hot water lately and only won by a razor-thin margin.

When you despise something Sawx, it's really funny how you explain this, you're really ironical you know .

And are the dems a chance to regain the senate or the gop successfully gerrymandered the legislature in 2010?

[free my dawg]

House seats are up every two years, and Republicans governed far to the right. They decimated funding for secondary education, tried to pass an Arizona-style immigration law here of all places, and basically governed like we were in Oklahoma. Add to the fact that O'Brien seemed more interested in RINO hunting than keeping his majority (two moderates in the party would have probably won if they didn't split the big Republican town off of the district) and you have a hilarious amount of incompetence.

The scary thing is Democrats might actually tie for the Senate if Sanborn defers to someone else for Governor. He's in a lot of hot water lately and only won by a razor-thin margin.

When you despise something Sawx, it's really funny how you explain this, you're really ironical you know .

And are the dems a chance to regain the senate or the gop successfully gerrymandered the legislature in 2010?

Yes, there's at least a chance to tie it. Like I said, if Sanborn doesn't run for Governor like he's planning he'll probably lose. He only won by around 200 votes in a neutral climate, and he's most famous for calling Maggie Hassan a hag and comparing Obamacare to the SF plane crash.   If Democrats can capitalize on that they have a tie. SD9 (R+1) is in swing territory, and "accidentally" calling anyone in public office a hag most likely gets you kicked out.

If libertarians can siphon enough votes off of the Republican candidate like they almost did in SD16 (R+2), they can lose. If people in SD24 (R+1) realize that their state senator flipflopped on her moderate credentials, they're down another seat. If Bradley goes for higher office then SD3 (R+1) looks a lot better for Democrats. Hell, if Bragdon (R+2) retires this year or a high-profile candidate takes him on, he could lose because of the scandal that's still flying around him.

At the same time Democrats have to hold on to SD18 (R+2, if Beaudry runs again he could siphon off votes from Soucy) and SD12 (R+1). I think it's doable to take the Senate.

[windjammer]

Thanks for your answer! If I remembered correctly, you had a picture of you with Maggie Hassan. So maybe you know her personally! Do you know if she thinks about running against Ayotte in 2016?

[hopper]

Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

Nah CT usually goes for Moderate Republican Governors. Malloy beat Foley by 1 % in 2010. Weicker and Malloy were/are mistakes that I think Connecticut voters regret putting into office. They are looking for a John Rowland type without the corruption issues of course.

[smoltchanov]

Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

Nah CT usually goes for Moderate Republican Governors. Malloy beat Foley by 1 % in 2010. Weicker and Malloy were/are mistakes that I think Connecticut voters regret putting into office. They are looking for a John Rowland type without the corruption issues of course.

Rowland??? Jodi Rell was MUCH more popular then he EVER was..

[free my dawg]

Thanks for your answer! If I remembered correctly, you had a picture of you with Maggie Hassan. So maybe you know her personally! Do you know if she thinks about running against Ayotte in 2016?

I do know her but haven't gotten into a discussion about Ayotte.

[Kevinstat]

There's a special election in Senate District 19 (which will become Senate District 23 next year (it was unchanged in this spring's redistricting, except for the number) today, caused by the resignation in July (announced in June) of then Senate Majority Leader Seth Goodall (D-Richmond), who is now the New England administrator for the U.S. Small Business Administration.  The Republicans nominated former (2006-2008) State Senator Paula Benoit (R-Phippsburg), seemingly the strongest candidate they could field (former (2010-2012) State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin (R-Georgetown), who's now running for Congress in ME-02 where he doesn't live right now (he announced on talk radio and wouldn't talk to the other press that whole day) teased with running, but that's definitely a good thing for the Republicans).

House Majority Leader Seth Berry (D-Bowdoinham), who is termed out of the House in 2014 mulled running, but decided to serve out his term in the House and as Majority Leader.  He and Goodall both endorsed both endorsed Eloise Vitelli (D-Arrowsic), the program and policy director of what sounds like a women's-centered vocational support/economic development group.  She beat out two other Democrats for the "caucus" nomination (it's technically a meeting of the members of county committees who live in the district, but some county committees like the Kennebec Dems allow enrolled Democrats to be voted in before the meeting or at a pre-meeting that same day so it functions more like a caucus; I'm not sure how it worked in this contest) , seemingly with ease.  (Benoit also had what seemed like a token intra-party challenger).

There's also a Green Independent candidate, Daniel Stromgren (G-Topsham), the only candidate from that side of Merrymeeting Bay (you have to leave Sagadahoc County to drive from one part of the county to the other; the presence of Dresden in the district makes it functionally contiguous but I'm sure campaign volunteers have regularly passed through Brunswick).  I volunteered for Vitelli the Saturday before last and the woman I was working with picked up one of his flyers that had blown onto the road.  He sounded like a Republican.  One of my aunts was at the meeting where he was nominated (my dad grew up in Bowdoinham) and she said his criticism of the Maine People's Allaince (a progressive issue advocacy group in Maine that also gets involved in elections) was just about big money, but it didn't seem like from the flyer.  So he might sway some marginal voters to vote for Benoit while taking votes from progressives (who might not realize he's kind of attacking them) because he's a Green!  I called my three aunts who live in the district (all left of center) and gave tried to get them to support Vitelli.  I definitely didn't convert the aunt referenced above, but my conversation with the one who shares a driveway with her seemed promising.  The third aunt was somewhat in the middle - pretty much the order I expected.

I have two cousins and one of their wives who live in the district, but one of them is the daughter of the intractable Green aunt.  I kind of wish I had called my other cousin and his wife as we get along very well, but it's different asking your cousin to vote for someone than your aunt who can't really get bothered with their sweet nephew - not that that's always the case I know, but you know what I mean.  I thought about calling my cousin and his wife while I was writing this at around 7:30 but decided not to.  It's now 11 minutes to closing time so it's doubtful whether they would make it in time if they hadn't voted yet.  Okay, I'm done writing about this.  I'll let you know the results if they're in before I go to bed tonight.

[Kevinstat]

Vitelli (D) won, according to unofficial results with all precincts in, with 4,621 votes (49.60%*) to Benoit (R)'s 4,339 (46.57%) to Stromgren's 357 (3.83%), a margin of 282 votes (3.03%).  Vitelli's best town was Arrowsic, which isn't surprising as it's both her hometown and a noted Democratic stronghold (people referred to it as the "People's Republic of Arrowsic" back in the 70s and 80s) when much of that part of Maine was a lot more Republican than it is today.  She won 69.57% to 28.02% there, although that only netted her 86 votes (Arrowsic is the smallest town in the district).  Interestingly, Benoit's best town was not her hometown of Phippsburg (which she carried 54.47% to 43.99%) but Bowdoin in the far end of the district (which she carried 55.13% to 41.20%).  Bowdoin doesn't seem particularly Republican, although it is the furthest town from Arrowsic and the one town on that side of Merrymeeting Bay other than Topsham which is less out of the way that isn't the hometown of either Seth Goodall or Seth Berry.

Stromgren's best town was Richmond (8.42%) which does have a strong Green presence.  He got 4.92% in his hometown of Topsham where one of the Green Party founders I believe, John Rensenbrink (sp?) is from (he ran as in Independent for U.S. Senate in 1996 as the Greens had ballot access at the time (which they later lost and regained) but there were some complications getting enough Greens registered to allow him to get enough signatures from them alone to get on the primary ballot).

Turnout "far exceed[ed] expectations" (it was pegged at 31.92% of registered voters (whenever that registered voter data was from) according to a Bangor Daily News Table that's no longer there, at least not where it was).

*For percentages, I'm not counting blank ballots (the state does now in its official results, although perhaps not for determining recount cost, but I'm sure there aren't enough blank ballots to push Vitelli's margin under 2% and the next threshold margin is 4% which her margin is under already - not that I expect Benoit to request a recount) or any write-in votes of which I probably won't be aware until the official results are posted on the Maine Elections Division's website which might take a month or two (maybe not for a solitary special election though).

[Kevinstat]

Vitelli's win puts the Maine Senate back at 19 D, 15 R and 1 Indy.  The Maine House is now 89 D, 58 R and 4 Unenrolled (the "official" term for Independent voters in Maine).  2 of the 4 Unenrolled members the House identify as "Independent" while the others are just listed as "Unenrolled".  One of the 4 (one of the 2 "Independents"), a former Republican representative, caucuses with the Ds or at least did at the beginning of the session.  The others also have ties with either the Democrats or the Greens, one having served for 8 years previously as a Democrat, one having run as a Democrat before and one having been involved with the Greens in some form or another (and he represents a district on the Portland Peninsula where the Greens would probably field a candidate if they didn't feel he was one of them).

[Kevinstat]

The Republican nominee sounded like a sore loser.  See the video here (starting at around 0:53).

[PolitiJunkie]

Jeb Bradley's son committed voter fraud in 2008; despite being registered in Colorado where he attends college, he also registered in New Hampshire to vote for his dad's losing campaign:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/06/sebastian-bradley-votes_n_3880965.html

I'm guessing this plays a big role in Jebby's decision not to challenge Shaheen.

[windjammer]

http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20130921-OPINION-309210308

Nancy Stiles (R), a state senator, will support medicaid expansion. NH legislatures are currently debating.
So, the House is controlled by the dems, so no problem. But the senate: 13-11 rep, so an another rep support is needed.

[free my dawg]

Umm... That's a letter.

[Miles]

New England College released these NH polls.

All are solid for Democrats except CD1.

Senate

Shaheen- 51%
Bass- 32%

Governor

Hassan- 53%
Gastas- 25%

CD1

Shea-Porter- 43%
Guinta- 42%

CD2

Kuster- 46%
Lambert- 26%

[Holmes]

It's so annoying how every race Shea-Porter is in is so tight until the very end.

[IceSpear]

Despite holding the seat for a term, Guinta is really not a good candidate. He has ethics issues and voted a straight Tea Party line which won't fly in NH. It's likely only close because CSP is to the left of the district as well and he has name recognition, but I don't see him winning.

[windjammer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

[SamInTheSouth]

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

[free my dawg]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

I'll expect them to adopt an Arkansas-style version that's more focused towards private insurance. Stiles is for this compromise.

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

>338 Romney votes
>Michigan flips
>338

Everyone listen to this guy, Ayotte is safer than Barrasso.

[windjammer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

I'll expect them to adopt an Arkansas-style version that's more focused towards private insurance. Stiles is for this compromise.

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

>338 Romney votes
>Michigan flips
>338

Everyone listen to this guy, Ayotte is safer than Barrasso.

Will the NH governor try to unseat her?

[free my dawg]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

I'll expect them to adopt an Arkansas-style version that's more focused towards private insurance. Stiles is for this compromise.

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

>338 Romney votes
>Michigan flips
>338

Everyone listen to this guy, Ayotte is safer than Barrasso.

Will the NH governor try to unseat her?

No idea.

[Miles]

Guinta is fundraising with Scott Brown.

[Gass3268]

Governor LePage wants to lower the legal working age to 12.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/02/child-labor-laws_n_4374014.html