Official New England 2014 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

He very barely won in 2012. So - quite possible

[free my dawg]

He very barely won in 2012. So - quite possible

Of course. I say Dems are favored. Sanborn, like I've said, has had a controversial term here, which I've detailed quite a bit here. This is his worst yet, though.

[free my dawg]

Enough of my ranting. Here's Garcia's first foray into campaigning. She's seeming to run on her record as a conservative, which really doesn't bode well in this district. Charlie Bass lost by 5 here, so even with the NHGOP's fastest rising star here, Kuster should hold. Likely D.

And, in other news, Hemingway's in. I already profiled him - if he runs on personal liberty (hint: pot) than fiscal conservatism, he's got a small chance at beating Hassan. Overall, still Likely D, but close to safe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Enough of my ranting. Here's Garcia's first foray into campaigning. She's seeming to run on her record as a conservative, which really doesn't bode well in this district. Charlie Bass lost by 5 here, so even with the NHGOP's fastest rising star here, Kuster should hold. Likely D.

And, in other news, Hemingway's in. I already profiled him - if he runs on personal liberty (hint: pot) than fiscal conservatism, he's got a small chance at beating Hassan. Overall, still Likely D, but close to safe.

To be fair, Bass had noteworthy ethics issues.

[free my dawg]

Enough of my ranting. Here's Garcia's first foray into campaigning. She's seeming to run on her record as a conservative, which really doesn't bode well in this district. Charlie Bass lost by 5 here, so even with the NHGOP's fastest rising star here, Kuster should hold. Likely D.

And, in other news, Hemingway's in. I already profiled him - if he runs on personal liberty (hint: pot) than fiscal conservatism, he's got a small chance at beating Hassan. Overall, still Likely D, but close to safe.

To be fair, Bass had noteworthy ethics issues.

Naturally, but Bass would still have probably lost by a slim margin.

[free my dawg]

Now, Andrew Hemingway has come out in favor of marijuana and won't push for repeal of gay marriage. There's a big reason why I think he's the real future of the NHGOP and not Garcia, like everyone else says: he's economically conservative, but if he can play up his social moderation and win back the vote that Republicans lost last year (plus with the pro-pot crowd), he can definitely win.

I'm predicting a Hassan win by 7-10 points, with a few close calls on the way.

[New_Conservative]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, it happens everywhere. On the other side, tying moderates to unpopular liberals could very well sink Democrats for control of the Senate.

[smoltchanov]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

Tea-party idiots happen everywhere, even in the most liberal states like Massachusetts. An examples - many on RMG, i mentioned couple of times: despite utter impossibility of winning anything substantial (above state legislative seats, and even them - not so many) for their beloved far-rightists, the only answer you get from them is "I will not vote for such and such RINO, i want a genuine conservative". They don't care that such conservative absolutely can't win s statewide or Congressional race in the state. Usually, in such cases i end all talk with an advice: "Move to Oklahoma!!"

[New_Conservative]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

Tea-party idiots happen everywhere, even in the most liberal states like Massachusetts. An examples - many on RMG, i mentioned couple of times: despite utter impossibility of winning anything substantial (above state legislative seats, and even them - not so many) for their beloved far-rightists, the only answer you get from them is "I will not vote for such and such RINO, i want a genuine conservative". They don't care that such conservative absolutely can't win s statewide or Congressional race in the state. Usually, in such cases i end all talk with an advice: "Move to Oklahoma!!"

This.

[smoltchanov]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

Tea-party idiots happen everywhere, even in the most liberal states like Massachusetts. An examples - many on RMG, i mentioned couple of times: despite utter impossibility of winning anything substantial (above state legislative seats, and even them - not so many) for their beloved far-rightists, the only answer you get from them is "I will not vote for such and such RINO, i want a genuine conservative". They don't care that such conservative absolutely can't win s statewide or Congressional race in the state. Usually, in such cases i end all talk with an advice: "Move to Oklahoma!!"

This.

I easily admit that Baker and Tisei don't have anything in common with Tea-party and would vote for both if i could. New England (especially Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont) desperately need more bipartisan politics. But to even have a shot Republicans must understand- these states will never (in foreseable future) vote for right-wing, even "moderate incarnation of Romney" (in 2002) won with great difficulty. They need to run pragmstists - centrists (with some conservative streak on fiscal matters) on economy and liberals on social issues, which most people in these states are. In 90th they could even win in Suffolk county (Boston) (they held DA post there), now that's seems impossible. Rjght now they have exactly 1 statewide elected official in 3 states i mentioned - Lt. Governor of Vermont Phil Scott (exact moderate). They need much more of such candidates, not less. And even then it will take time to turn around almost reflexive unwillingness of most people in these 3 states to even consider Republican candidates.

Similar situation - in Connecticut and even Maine (LePage is an aberration). Only New Hampshire votes sometimes for "genuine conservatives", and even it - not so frequently (in wave years)

P.S. And yes - Democrats readily use "tea-party bogus" in New England. Just as Republicans exploit "Obam-Pelosi bogus" in the South. Both things are absolutely dirty, but - it's politics.

[free my dawg]

The family of former Executive Councilor Ray Burton (R-NH) endorses Democrat Mike Cryans in the race for his open seat.

I don't think I ever posted anything about this, but to give you an idea, Ray Burton was a legend in New Hampshire, especially the North Country. He's served from 1976 to 1978, but won his seat back in 1980 and held it until he died last November. He was a master of retail politics, and was known for his tireless efforts to attract attention to the North Country. His family's endorsement is a huge coup for Democrats, who hold the Executive Council by a 3-2 margin.

[smoltchanov]

The family of former Executive Councilor Ray Burton (R-NH) endorses Democrat Mike Cryans in the race for his open seat.

I don't think I ever posted anything about this, but to give you an idea, Ray Burton was a legend in New Hampshire, especially the North Country. He's served from 1976 to 1978, but won his seat back in 1980 and held it until he died last November. He was a master of retail politics, and was known for his tireless efforts to attract attention to the North Country. His family's endorsement is a huge coup for Democrats, who hold the Executive Council by a 3-2 margin.

Republicans again nominated the most conservative candidate (may be - because only "base" turned out for specials, and primary turnout was very low), while Burton was very moderate. So - naturally)))

[Miles]

A NH legislator is introducing a bill that would make "none of above" an option for elections, like in NV.

[smoltchanov]

A NH legislator is introducing a bill that would make "none of above" an option for elections, like in NV.

Good for situation when you viscerally hate all candidates)))

[greenforest32]

http://www.demos.org/blog/1/16/14/election-day-registration-massachusetts-welcome-aboard

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Any insight on why MA-Dems have been so timid on this issue? 8th year of trifecta control and only now it's seriously being considered.

[free my dawg]

Kenney has a 1% lead in the EC-1 race. Worth counting that there was low turnout in Hanover  and Plymouth, the two college towns in the district. It's also worth noting that Dartmouth College is on spring break right now, and it's midterms week at Plymouth State. I'm calling it for him right now

This seat's definitely a toss-up in 2014, but once 2016 rolls around, Democrats should have a much easier time.

[Miles]

CT-Gov: Martha Dean, who sounds like a Some Dudette to me except for her role in challenging Malloy's gun proposals, is looking at a run.

[Miles]

NH-02: Roll Call interviews Marilinda Garcia.

[Miles]

'Any chance that this jerk get voted out?

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[free my dawg]

'Any chance that this jerk get voted out?

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If a third Republican enters the race than there's a decent chance he gets kicked out.

[badgate]

This is how much this Democrat wants to be the Governor of Massachusetts
Boston Globe: Grossman passes kidney stone during gubernatorial debate

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2014/03/26/grossman-passing-kidney-stone-during-gubernatorial-debate/V6tCQ8eQnBPy9PT2xYliVK/story.html?s_campaign=sm_tw

[Blue3]

Not sure where it should go, but has everyone heard that RI's speaker has resigned amid a mysterious investigation, and a more conservative one sworn in?

[free my dawg]

In NH-Leg news...

NHGOP Vice Chairman JP Marzullo has set a primary challenge to moderate state Senator Bob Odell.

[free my dawg]

Updated Senate rankings:

• SD1: Safe D (D+4). A classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove.
• SD2: Likely R (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
• SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory.
• SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height and there's a moderate (read: not Woody), but overall, he should be safe.
• SD5: Safe D (D+15). It's based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce is as safe as can be.
• SD6: Likely R (RW) (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he's be 77), but he just got elected, so he's probably sticking around. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very economically conservative.
• SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again. It's a toss-up if someone else gets the nominee - anyone is better than Youssef.
• SD8: Likely R (RW) (PW) (R+1). Odell is probably the most moderate of the Republicans here, and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney in Romney. However, he will be 71, and a top candidate in JP Marzullo is running against him, so Odell may call it quits. It's Safe R with Odell, and a toss-up with Marzullo.
• SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag, compared Obamacare to a plane crash, and threatening to revoke a constituent's scholarship over him supporting marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
• SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Who's going to run here, DW Perry?
• SD-11: Likely R (RW) (R+3). After the scandal at the LGC.
• SD-12: Toss-up/Tilt R (RW) (R+4). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this Republican-leaning district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
• SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a fluke, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district.
• SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
• SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
• SD-16: Leans R (R+2). David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
• SD-17: Safe R. (R+3) Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
• SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. (R+2) Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her strength.
• SD-19: Safe R. (R+9) Rausch, even in a swing district, would be fine.
• SD-20: Safe D (RW). (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
• SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
• SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
• SD-23: Safe R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
• SD-24: Leans R. (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a conservative who will sometimes beat Democrats, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. This district is going to be a rough hit. She is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, Chris Muns has raised quite a bit of money for a State Senate campaign, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn and Gilmour fall and both parties break even. For Democrats to take the Senate, they must hold all of their seats, obviously. The path to taking the Senate, however, must go through Andy Sanborn's seat. His last two controversies were overblown, but bullying a constituent into silence will not stand well. Then, they will have to win one of SD-2, SD-8 (which is possible thanks to a top-tier primary threat), SD-16, and SD-24. Preferably more would do for an insurance.