Official New England 2014 Megathread

[free my dawg]

Anything New England goes here, from Greenwich and Providence to Burlington and Bar Harbor.

To start things off, Stella Tremblay, the NH state representative who claimed that the Boston bombings were staged, has resigned after she emailed the entire state house about how the bombings were staged. Considering she only won the primary last year by 60 votes without the crazy theories she wouldn't have lasted.

[free my dawg]

And now there are some rumblings that Paul LePage might not seek reelection after his budget veto was overridden.

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[windjammer]

And now there are some rumblings that Paul LePage might not seek reelection after his budget veto was overridden.

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I'm not sure a retirement will help us or the dems. After all, he's really disliked! So if the republicans manage to choose a decent republican, we are dead, and cutler too!

[ag]

Wow, the guy must be seriously hated - not only at large, but within his own party. And inept. Republicans, who originally voted against the budget, switched to override the veto - even though the overriders had votes to spare. Any governor in moderate control of his own party should have been able to avoid that. This was a deliberate snub by his own party legislators. What the hell has he done to them?

[free my dawg]

And now there are some rumblings that Paul LePage might not seek reelection after his budget veto was overridden.

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I'm not sure a retirement will help us or the dems. After all, he's really disliked! So if the republicans manage to choose a decent republican, we are dead, and cutler too!

It certainly hurts us. If someone that isn't a crazy bagger runs I could see a victory.

I'm guessing possible candidates include Kevin Raye, Peter Mills, Charlie Summers, Bruce Poliquin, and a few others. Basically the usual suspects.

[Miles]

LePage is running again.

[free my dawg]

Looking into NH-Gov and what little news on that front, it's looking like I have to apologize for my state government again. This time we have Andy Sanborn, a candidate exploring for 2014 and a Tea Party state senator who's no stranger to controversy. This time, he's in hot water for comparing Obamacare to the San Francisco plane crash.

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He last attracted controversy by referring to Maggie Hassan as "Haggie", tweeting "Leaders bring solutions, commissions find excuses. Haggie can't lead." He attributed it to "sloppy multitasking" and "mistakenly combining her first and last name". Interestingly enough, the NHGOP chair's response to the criticism from the NHDP resembled more of one of Krazen's responses to this thread than her, saying that "Maggie Hassan's minions are feigning outrage about a typo because they are trying to distract from the embarrassing defeat of her irresponsible budget proposal in the Democrat-controlled New Hampshire House."

Of course with opponents like him and Kevin Smith and a chair who's defended personal attacks against her, Governor Hassan will be safe for re-election. She's seemed to please everyone while remaining inoffensive. However, it's interesting to note that only 213 votes separated Sanborn and his opponent from getting re-elected to his Senate seat. With a margin that slim, even with turnout a rematch would probably end up in Nyquist's favor. His words are putting his caucus's majority in danger, and if Medex is a huge issue, I could see Democrats taking the majority.

[free my dawg]

Former representative Frank Guinta is very aggressively moving towards running in NH-1.

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There's nothing better than the other party coalescing around a corrupt extremist who's simply a terrible fit for the state. Now that he doesn't have incumbency he can't spend taxpayers' money on mail thinly disguised as a campaign advertisement, and he can still be hit for a mystery account of $355,000 that he never got, lied about not paying his student loans, and in general is corrupt and right-wing enough to lose one of the easier tossups in the state. I'd say in today's environment it Tilts D with him and could even go as far as a full lean. But on the other hand, this is who I'm scared for...

And on the more moderate side of things, UNH's business school's dean, Dan Innis, is exploring a run for CD-1.

Dan Innis is a gay Republican who's mainly known for fiscal conservatism. He's on the Concord Committee, and he's very vocal about fiscal responsibility. However, he's also pro-education (he opposes the steep cuts to the university system), very pro-environment, and naturally pro-gay marriage. Hasn't spoken on abortion, but I'd imagine he's to the left of Guinta.

I'd say if he gets past the primary he has a great chance at knocking off Shea-Porter. The only reason it's changed hands is because of the incumbents' more polarized ideologies. Being a progressive in the biggest wave in recent history killed Shea-Porter, and being to the right of Todd Akin on abortion killed Guinta. Any moderate could make this seat safe, and if Innis does win I think he can hold onto this seat for as long as he pleases.

[Napoleon]

Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

[free my dawg]

Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

I'd love to see that.

Anyways, 2012 candidate and conservative activist Kevin Smith is out for governor.  The NHGOP is having a hard time fielding a candidate to the point that the only real enthusiastic one is in trouble for calling Maggie Hassan a hag and comparing Obamacare to the SF plane crash. Let's assume she's safe for 2014.

[free my dawg]

Mike Michaud's internal has him up by 9 on LePage and Cutler. 40/31/26. Interestingly enough this is one of the more accurate Democratic pollsters out there. It got MN6 and the result for NH on the money, and it was a percent away from the result in IA4. No link, but it isn't a push poll or anything, so color me optimistic, especially if LePage is barely treading water to stay above 30%.

[Joe Republic]

More hijinks from the NH megalegislature... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/30/jordan-ulery-bestiality_n_3676166.html

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Has Peter Bragdon thought about running for NH Governor?  I would really love to see Hassan out in 2014.  But barring a major change between now and then, it probably won't happen.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, she's safe. No idea about Bragdon, but he's very unlikely to run. A poll by WMUR/UNH had Hassan at a 58% approval rating, and Republicans are having a hard time fielding a candidate.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yeah, she's safe. No idea about Bragdon, but he's very unlikely to run. A poll by WMUR/UNH had Hassan at a 58% approval rating, and Republicans are having a hard time fielding a candidate.

Sad, but true, at this point.  I would actually put the New Hampshire GOP up there with the most disorganized state parties, because despite having plenty of strong Republicans, few of them ever seem to win statewide or even be interested in running.

[sg0508]

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

[smoltchanov]

Has Peter Bragdon thought about running for NH Governor?  I would really love to see Hassan out in 2014.  But barring a major change between now and then, it probably won't happen.

Hassan is, probably, unbeatable in any year, but wave one, like 2010, and, probably, even in such year. Almost surely - she will not be beaten by "solid conservative"

[free my dawg]

Senate President Peter Bragdon has taken a job as the director of the Local Government Center, which oversees a health trust, worker's comp, and legal advice. He'll be staying on.

Sounds like a conflict of interest to me. Manchester Mayor and former Senator Ted Gatsas even said it's "impossible" for him to remain Senate President and essentially called for his resignation. The fact that the Senate President now has power over the largest insurer in the state is extremely shady to me.

[PolitiJunkie]

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

I hope so, and it's very possible- especially if the seat is open because she is on the national ticket- but the Democratic bench doesn't seem too deep. Former Gov. John Lynch, who would be the best candidate, has already declined to run. Some think incumbent Gov. Maggie Hassan will run, but I think it's much more likely that she serves 4 two-year terms, totaling eight years, and then runs for the open seat in 2020 when Jeanne Shaheen retires. Or maybe she isn't interested in running for Senate at all. New Hampshire's incumbent Congresswomen, Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster could run for the seat, but Shea-Porter may not survive 2014 (though I think the race tilts D at the very least, especially if extremist Guinta is the nominee). Kuster is very viable. Then we look to statewide officials. NH has no Lt. Gov. The incumbent Secretary of State, Democrat Bill Gardner, is 64 and has held the office since 1976 (37 years!). Pretty clear why he will not be running for Senate. The Attorney General, Joseph Foster, is low-profile, but he just took office three months ago so we'll see what he does in office. Highly unlikely that he'll be a candidate though. State Treasurer, State Auditor, Superintendent of Schools, Agriculture Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, and State Public Services Commissioner are all appointed offices in New Hampshire, and appointed officers rarely become Senate candidates. Also, the three officers in those respective positions currently in NH are all low-profile and fairly undistinguished. New Hampshire does not have a Comptroller or Land Commissioner, two other common statewide offices. Terie Norelli, the Speaker of the NH House, will be 64 in 2016 and has been involved in major controversy before, and Stephen Shurtleff, the House Majority Leader, will be 69 in 2016. New Hampshire's House is the largest in the country, consisting of 400 members, of which 221 are Democrats, so obviously there are a lot of choices there, but how many of them are really viable or likely candidates? In the State Senate, there are only 24 seats, 11 of which are held by Democrats. The Minority Leader, Sylvia Larsen, will be 67 in 2016. Some of the other State Senators could be viable.

So in conclusion, yes, this should be an easy pickup for the Democrats, but they may have difficulty finding the right candidate.

[Miles]

Michaud is officialy running for Governor.

[free my dawg]

Great news!

[PolitiJunkie]

Michaud is officialy running for Governor.

Uh, he announced several weeks ago.

[PolitiJunkie]

Michaud is officialy running for Governor.

Uh, he announced several weeks ago.

Whoops, that announcement was just for an exploratory campaign, though it was basically clear that he was running. My bad.

Anyway, I'm endorsing Cutler. Cutler is to Michaud's left, and I think he'll be a stronger candidate. I do like Michaud though. As long as LePage is gone- he's horrendous! Way too conservative for Maine.

[PolitiJunkie]

Michaud is officialy running for Governor.

Uh, he announced several weeks ago.

Whoops, that announcement was just for an exploratory campaign, though it was basically clear that he was running. My bad.

Anyway, I'm endorsing Cutler. Cutler is to Michaud's left, and I think he'll be a stronger candidate. I do like Michaud though. As long as LePage is gone- he's horrendous! Way too conservative for Maine.

It's a little scary that LePage LOSES ALL two-way polls but WINS ALL three-way polls (besides Michaud's internals). I really hope the Cutler and Michaud campaigns know what they are doing, or else they are just handing this race to LePage.

[free my dawg]

Senate President Peter Bragdon stepped down yesterday, and it's looking like Senator and candidate for higher office Chuck Morse wants to succeed him. Consider him out of contention.