Official New England 2014 Megathread

[free my dawg]

And Bob Odell has retired.

This was a 51% Obama district, and the NH GOP, like I said, has a top tier candidate in Vice Chair Marzullo. However, Odell's retirement is a boon to Democrats - I would say control of the Senate only Tilts R, but that might be wishful thinking.

There's no doubt that it's competitive though.

[smoltchanov]

And Bob Odell has retired.

This was a 51% Obama district, and the NH GOP, like I said, has a top tier candidate in Vice Chair Marzullo. However, Odell's retirement is a boon to Democrats - I would say control of the Senate only Tilts R, but that might be wishful thinking.

There's no doubt that it's competitive though.

With Marzullo being much more conservative (at least - fiscally, but, probably, socially too) then Odell  - Democrats get good chances in 8th. But a lot will be dependent on candidates... Thanks!

[windjammer]

And Bob Odell has retired.

This was a 51% Obama district, and the NH GOP, like I said, has a top tier candidate in Vice Chair Marzullo. However, Odell's retirement is a boon to Democrats - I would say control of the Senate only Tilts R, but that might be wishful thinking.

There's no doubt that it's competitive though.

Pure toss up this district?

[smoltchanov]

A sort of the afterthought: while Bob Odell is, surely, a moderate, 15 (and even 10) years ago there were much more moderate (in some cases - openly liberal) Republican legislators in New Hampshire legislature. Generally the same - everywhere else in New England: from Maine to Connecticut (i could mention a lot of names here, but state legislators are less known, so many will not recognize them anyway). And that in a period of time when these states generally moved left (may be - not so much in last 10 years, but surely - in 15, especially - on social issues). So, while states moved LEFT, Republican candidates and elected legislators in these states moved RIGHT. Why???

[free my dawg]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

[smoltchanov]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

Change of guard?

[free my dawg]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

Change of guard?

Steve Shurtleff will probably ascend to Speaker. I admittedly don't pay much attention to the NH House that much - there's way too much to keep track of.

[smoltchanov]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

Change of guard?

Steve Shurtleff will probably ascend to Speaker. I admittedly don't pay much attention to the NH House that much - there's way too much to keep track of.

Sure. But i fear that if Republicans will regain majority there (and there is a substantial chance of it) we will get second edition of O'Brien..

[free my dawg]

And Bob Odell has retired.

This was a 51% Obama district, and the NH GOP, like I said, has a top tier candidate in Vice Chair Marzullo. However, Odell's retirement is a boon to Democrats - I would say control of the Senate only Tilts R, but that might be wishful thinking.

There's no doubt that it's competitive though.

Pure toss up this district?

Absolutely. If Latham's and Runyan's open-seat is a tossup with comparable O/R %s then Odell's district is definitely one too.

[Miles]

Michaud clearly had the best Q1 fundraising.

$462K raised/$813 CoH verses $142K/$842K for LePage.

Cutler raised $389K but $200K was self-funded.

[Maxwell]

Michaud clearly had the best Q1 fundraising.

$462K raised/$813 CoH verses $142K/$842K for LePage.

Cutler raised $389K bit $200K was self-funded.

Even minus the self-funded, that's stronger than LePage. The fact that LePage is being outraised by an independent can't be good for his campaign.

[free my dawg]

Alright. Businessman Steve Kenda is running a campaign to primary noted flip-flopper Nancy Stiles in SD-24 (R+3 according to MB, R+2 according to Windjammer). It's bound to be competitive - while Americans for Prosperity has been heavily in Stiles' corner since she got elected, they invited Kenda to speak at their Freedom Summit three weeks ago, and they put him in the spot before Donald Trump. He has many inroads, almost ran for governor last year, and has more than enough money to compete against her.

I'm rooting for him. If he wins, the worst-case scenario is that I'll have a senator that doesn't change their views more frequently than Mitt Romney, and the best-case is of course a Democratic pickup.

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK, Odell and Styles are usually considered the most moderate Republicans in New Hampshire state Senate (especially on social issues). Will it be good for both of them to be replaced by tea-partiers?

[free my dawg]

AFAIK, Odell and Styles are usually considered the most moderate Republicans in New Hampshire state Senate (especially on social issues). Will it be good for both of them to be replaced by tea-partiers?

Yes for Stiles, no for Odell. In fact, comparing them is pretty insane - Stiles originally got elected in a D+6 district in 2010, received a new district that was nine points more Republican, and ever-so-coincidentally changed her stances on SYG, vouchers, and various other issues. One is a statesman who genuinely has pro-choice views and has acted upon them. The other acted as a moderate in a blue district, but decided to go through a Romneyesque reinvention process as soon as she was bolstered by gerrymandering. One genuinely has moderate views and believes that women should have the right to decide if they have a baby. The other presents herself as a moderate to her constituents, but votes party-line in Washington, makes guest appearances at Koch Brothers rallies with Dick Morris, and denies expanding coverage to poors because "muh capitalism".

So yes, I'm endorsing Kenda wholeheartedly in the primary. At least I'll have someone who's honest about their views.

If you're looking for actual moderates, I'd say that John Reagan is more moderate than Stiles socially - he's one of the most economically conservative, but he's pro-legalization and even voted for the SSM bill in 2008 as a state rep.

[windjammer]

It would be great to pick up the NH senate, just for the medicaid expansion!

[free my dawg]

It would be great to pick up the NH senate, just for the medicaid expansion!

We've already implemented a private model.

[free my dawg]

As I expected, Peter Bragdon is retiring. Also, Deborah Pignatelli is too.

My rating does not change at all.

[windjammer]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/09/scott-brown-jeanne-shaheen_n_5297272.html
Loooooool

[free my dawg]

State Senator Jim Rausch is retiring.

No rating change, this is an R+9 district.

[free my dawg]

Back to statewide races!

Lee Nyquist and Mike Cryans are opting for rematches.

I'd say both are toss-ups. In a normal climate, Nyquist vs. Generic R would be Lean R because this district tilts Republican, but after Sanborn's various controversies and his win by 200 votes, I have to call this race a toss-up.

As for Cryans, I'm confident he will win in his rematch with Joe Kenney. Despite it being an off-year, Kenney won the race in a special election where Dartmouth College, which is located in Cryans' heartland, was on spring break. If he can turn out Democrats in Hanover and Plymouth, then he can make up for Pignatelli retiring.

[RogueBeaver]

Dems worried about Cutler.

[homelycooking]

1st day of conventions have concluded in Connecticut. Since Democrats currently hold every statewide office and Congressional seat, all of their incumbents were renominated. So far, the Republicans have finished off their nominations for Congress:

1st District: MATTHEW COREY, Hartford Teamster and former pub owner. Independent candidate in this district in 2012. Unusually moderate for a Republican candidate here - probably got the nomination because no high-profile Republicans are remotely interested in taking on Larson.

2nd District: LORI HOPKINS CAVANAUGH, New London entrepreneur and talk-radio host. Ran for mayor of New London in 2011 and received 2.5% of the vote as a petitioning candidate. The nomination of this unknown conservative is a good indication of how badly the Republicans are doing here.

3rd District: JAMES BROWN, Stratford public school teacher. I've never heard of him. From his campaign site: "He currently holds the Backgammon 'Champion of the World' title (at least in the Brown Family)"

4th District: DAN DEBICELLA of Shelton, former State Senator and 2010 GOP candidate in this district. Himes beat him by four points in 2010. Can't fault the Republicans here - this is a proven strong candidate who's actually won elected office before (incredibly, he might be the only one nominated to a major office this year!) Unfortunately for them, Himes is the perfect candidate and Congressman for this district - young, incumbent, bilingual, and a former Goldman Sachs executive!

5th District: MARK GREENBERG of Litchfield, a real estate developer. He lost in bruising Republican primaries in 2010 and 2012 - I think that GOP delegates determined that it was time to give him a shot. If the moderate, socially liberal Andrew Roraback (famous name in CT politics) couldn't win here, it's difficult to imagine the socially conservative Greenberg surpassing his 48.5%, even without Obama's coattails.

Republicans also nominated PETER LUMAJ, a lawyer from Fairfield, for Secretary of the State. Born in Communist Albania, his website says, Lumaj is "concerned about the rise of socialism in Connnecticut and the United States". Republicans really have no statewide candidates interested in running for the Constitutional officers, so they pick a businessman from Fairfield County to challenge the Democratic incumbent. I had not heard of this man until today.

Today the nominations for the other Constitutional officers will be determined, as well as the Gubernatorial and Lt. Gubernatorial nominations. Tom Foley, who lost to Malloy in 2010 by 6000 votes, will likely be renominated. It's anyone's guess as to which other Republicans, if any, will win the support of enough delegates to force a primary. 

[smoltchanov]

So, almost surely, 5-0 again? Well, not bad, but somewhat boring...))

[free my dawg]

So, almost surely, 5-0 again? Well, not bad, but somewhat boring...))

Pretty much.

In NH-Speaker news, former Speaker Bill O'Brien is exploring a bid again if the GOP takes the House, in yet another gift to Democrats.

If we lose the House and the GOP doesn't have a supermajority, I am okay with this. This is the quickest path to regaining the House. I'd say the House Leans Democratic and the Senate is a pure toss-up. Odell retiring makes it just that easier for Democrats.

[greenforest32]

http://www.demos.org/blog/1/16/14/election-day-registration-massachusetts-welcome-aboard

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any insight on why MA-Dems have been so timid on this issue? 8th year of trifecta control and only now it's seriously being considered.

Weak that they ended up punting on election-day registration: http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2014/05/massachusetts_governor_signs_early_voting_bill

You must be logged in to read this quote.