Official New England 2014 Megathread
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« Reply #125 on: May 29, 2014, 01:55:22 AM »
« edited: June 10, 2014, 01:01:33 PM by brah »

A few updates on my NH-Sen ratings. A few big ratings changes.

  • SD1: Safe D (D+4). This district is a classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove, and he is good to go.
  • SD2: Likely R (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. She is easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has, and she is favored to beat her opponent.
  • SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory.
  • SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in this district, it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height and there's a moderate (read: not Woody), but overall, if this is Likely R, it is a very, very Likely R.
  • SD5: Safe D (D+15). This district is based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce is as safe as can be.
  • SD6: Likely R (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. He's a very strong challenger, but Cataldo is 77, so he will retire eventually. Democrats did not put full effort into this race
  • SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins the primary, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting he'll be this lucky again. It's a toss-up if someone else gets the nominee - at this point, anyone is better than Josh Youssef.
  • SD8: Toss-up (OPEN) (R+1). Pro-choice, NARAL Republican Bob Odell has retired, giving Democrats a pickup opportunity in this race. Republicans, however, have a top-tier recruit in conservative activist and NHGOP Vice Chair JP Marzullo, but Odell is backing former banking lobbyist Jerry Little, shaping up for a competitive Republican primary. Meanwhile, Democrats have coalesced around Linda Tanner, a state representative who was just elected last year.
  • SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag and compared Obamacare to a fatal plane crash that killed two people. However, his worst offense came recently when he threatened to get a constituent's scholarship revoked because he supported marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time, and his opponent looking for a rematch, and he has a good chance of losing, despite this district's Republican lean.
  • SD-10: Safe D. (D+9). It's Keene. Who's going to run here, DW Perry?
  • SD-11: Leans R (OPEN) (R+3). Peter Bragdon retired recently, but the tilt of this seat should keep it in the Republican column unless they run Peter "Women Are Vaginas" Hansen.
  • SD-12: Toss-up (R+4). Although Peggy Gilmour has been applauded on both sides for being a bipartisan legislator, her district is a 51.9% Romney district. This rating hinges on whether they call this off.
  • SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a fluke, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district if the wave reaches 2010's proportions
  • SD-14: Safe R: (R+9) Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got only 40%. Write this place off.
  • SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) The safest seat in the state. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
  • SD-16: Leans R (R+2). David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. He has a primary challenger, so if a good candidate rises up (and the best one in Patrick Arnold declined), he could win.
  • SD-17: Safe R. (R+3) Reagan is from the libertarian wing, yet was one of the few marriage supporters in 2008, and his district tilts Republican. Even though he ran a bad campaign, the pro-gay lobby and his general reputation will keep him in this seat.
  • SD-18: Likely D. (R+2) George Lambert, Donna Soucy's likely primary challenger, is a nutcase, to say the least. He is one of the few libertarian extremists left in the legislature, sponsoring a bill to require a warrant in all cases of domestic abuse, even if there is clear evidence because of "freedoms", and even advocated against suicide prevention classes because "shouldn't be deprived the choice of evaluating whether suicide is an option for them". Republicans may have kept the crazy boogeyman away in the rest of the country, but in NH, they just threw away their second most likely pickup opportunity because of it.
  • SD-19: Safe R. (OPEN SEAT) (R+9) R+9 district. However, Frank Sapareto, who supported a "gaygregation" bill in 2012 and voted against the same domestic violence bill I discussed in SD-18, could win the nomination, giving Democrats a crack in this race.
  • SD-20: Safe D. (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
  • SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 10 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
  • SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
  • SD-23: Leans R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside. This isn't the same district Hassan held. Democrats have a better candidate in Donna Schlachman, but it'll be an uphill battle for her.
  • SD-24: Leans R. (PW) (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. However, some of her moderate stances regarding Medicaid expansion and gay marriage have been called into question, and she will be facing a top-tier primary challenge from businessman and AFP poster child Steve Kenda. Democrats have lots of room to hit Stiles here, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say the Senate Tilts Republican, but control of the New Hampshire Senate is trending Democratic every day. Andy Sanborn was always a question mark to begin with, but the moment Odell retired, Senate control went to a toss-up. Democrats did a brilliant job with recruiting in these down-ballot races, and while Forrester and Bradley look to be safe, control of the Senate is once again a toss-up.

The Democratic path to picking up the Senate must go through one of SD-8 or SD-9. One simply is a competitive open seat, around the same PVI as IA-3 or NJ-3. The other is in trouble because of an incumbent who put his foot in his mouth and resorted to bullying his constituent into silence. However, JP Marzullo is no Zaun or Lonegan, and Sanborn is deeply ingrained in party leadership - in fact, his wife is chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. In addition, Sanborn has the tilt of his district on his side. Democrats also could conceivably pick up SD-11 (open seat), SD-16 (swingy, plus deep D bench), and SD-24 (primary challenge/strong challenger), but their main path to the majority goes through Odell's old district and Sanborn's district.

As for Republican pickups, I only see SD-12 (Gilmour's seat) and SD-7 (Hosmer's seat) due to plain-old PVI, considering they just threw away Soucy's seat.
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« Reply #126 on: June 05, 2014, 02:50:46 AM »

Your occasional NH-Downballot race update.

First off, Sylvia Larsen, the NH Senate Minority Leader and the Senate's dean (serving since 1994), is unexpectedly retiring. Democrats regularly break 60% in this district (which is why Sanborn moved to Bedford), so my rating doesn't change. This is surprising, even to me - I thought she was a lifer. She joins Terie Norelli, the Speaker, in retirement. Can anyone confirm if both party's leaders in any legislature have retired at the same time?

For new candidates, I could see Lou D'Allessandro (who has made his seat safe, but could be endangered if he got leadership), Molly Kelly (Keene Democrat, decently progressive), or Bette Lasky (Nashua, been in leadership before) getting the nod. Martha Fuller Clark could too, but she's getting up there in age, and she hasn't been well medically.

Second of all, Laurie Sanborn, Andy Sanborn's wife, has confirmed she is going to run for Speaker in 2015 if Republicans take the House. I'm guessing this means that Gene Chandler (the current Minority Leader) is standing aside for her, and that she's the establishment pick over Bill O'Brien. The state's House of Representatives leans Democratic for the time being, but this could affect her husband's competitive Senate race. It's the second-most competitive race for the cycle, but you bet that the establishment will do everything in their power to keep their candidate's husband in politics.

Last but not least, we go to SD-11, Bragdon's old seat. It's set to be a crowded primary, and I'm ready to make a prayer circle for the candidates. We have longtime representative Gary Daniels), former Assistant Minority Leader Maureen Mooney, and Merrimack Councilor Dan Dwyer.

And then we have Dan Hynes, DWI attorney and Free Stater. In true NHGOP fashion, he seems to be getting his primary help from other Free Staters, and on an unrelated note has seen legal trouble for extortion. I was just crossing my fingers for Peter Hansen, but this might be even better.

If Democrats run a candidate here, even a Some Dude, and Hynes wins the nomination (which is likely, considering his three opponents aren't Tea Party-types), we're looking at a pickup opportunity. We just might have another Josh Youssef on our hands.
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« Reply #127 on: June 07, 2014, 12:03:35 AM »

Okay, time for my Executive Council ratings. For those of you who aren't familiar, the Executive Council is separate from the Legislature, and is a group of five people who advise the governor and have the power to approve the budget, to veto appointments, to impeach the governor if they think he/she isn't fit to serve in office (which is tried by the NH Supreme Court), and to veto gubernatorial pardons. It's important enough to have its own ratings, so I'll be posting updates every once in a while.

EC-1: Toss-Up/Tilt D (D+3)Sad This seat used to be Ray Burton's seat - Burton has been serving in some fashion of NH politics since 1976 (mostly here), and when he died, a special election opened up. Joe Kenney, the Republican, won by about 1% of the vote. He has a lengthy list of experience as a 3-term state senator, 5-term state representative, and was the sacrificial lamb against Lynch in 2008. Mike Cryans, the Democrat, is running again. However, don't be fooled - the special election was on Dartmouth's spring break (which is on Cryans' home turf), Town Meeting Day (which if anything boosts Republican turnout), and Plymouth's finals week. Basically, Kenney only got to the Council because all the stars aligned in his favor.

Now, his wife Asha, a county commissioner, is embroiled in a local scandal for accusing a county employee's daughter of being a prostitute. The rest of the Carroll County Commission, which is all Republicans, is pressuring her to resign and filed a motion to censure her. She's clashed with Republicans and Democrats alike, and if this scandal grows large enough, I can see her husband being dragged down with her.

EC-2: Safe D (D+7)Sad The most obvious gerrymander in the state - this district snakes up from the deep blue, more Vermont-like parts of Cheshire County, up to Concord (which is also deep-blue), and then back down to Rochester and Dover (once again, deep blue cities), ending in Durham (a college town). The original plan had it going into Portsmouth, which politically is an extension of southern Maine. This district was meant to elect a Democrat, and it will.

EC-3: Likely R (R+4)Sad Not an awful gerrymander by any means of the imagination, but more due to the strength of the incumbent. Chris Sununu actually overperformed Romney by four points against education activist Bill Duncan. However, he faces a stronger opponent this time in Robin McLane, who happens to be Annie Kuster's sister. She might not look like much on paper, but she's got a famous name of her own in the state.

EC-4: Toss-up (R+4)Sad Chris Pappas, the incumbent, is an intriguing character. He is an openly gay 31-year-old, a former state representative and county treasurer, who actually overperformed Obama by 7% in a rematch against Robert Burns, the man who beat him in 2010 for Treasurer (and he beat in 2012 for Executive Council). Now, he is looking for a rubber match, and it's anyone's game, considering this district's tilt.

EC-5: Toss-up (OPEN SEAT) (R+2)SadIt's going to be a very competitive election - comparable O/R splits include FL-13 (which looked promising before Florida Democrats screwed themselves), NH-1 (which tbh I only have CSP holding because the GOP nominated a corrupt extremist), and WA-8 (held down by a moderate, but decent chance at a pickup if this opens up). Former state representative Jennifer Daler, who won in an R+13 district's special election in one year, has to face off against Nashua alderman Diane Sheehan for her party's nomination. On the other side is former Councilor Dave Wheeler, who is favored to beat anesthesiologist/Some Dude Steve Hattamer. This district, due to the unknown quantity of the Democrat in the race, is the tipping point in control of the executive council.

No House projections - I can keep track of 5 EC seats and 24 Senate seats, but not 400 House seats.
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« Reply #128 on: June 07, 2014, 01:13:40 AM »

Thanks! I know there will be lot of open seats and some primary defeats in House races, and, as i see from your posts, substantial turnout in state Senate too. My queston is about ideology - the Democratic caucus (with rare exceptions like 2 Paulists in House) runs, generally speaking from center-left to solid left ideologically. 15 years ago there was a lot of moderate (and some - openly liberal) Republicans in legislature, but now even the most moderate (Kidder, Gargasz and so on) Republican legislators sit somewhere not far from center (may be - very slightly left of it for most moderate). Will the tendency continue this year with retirements of such "moderate stalwarts" as Bob Odell? Or we can expect greater moderation in this swingy (though somewhat Democratic-leaning) state?
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« Reply #129 on: June 07, 2014, 04:31:52 PM »

Doubtful. The NHGOP has firmly embraced the Tea Party, and seem to be getting more libertarian than anything.
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« Reply #130 on: June 08, 2014, 07:34:33 PM »

So, Republicans have a candidate in SD-12 in NH, which is by far their best pickup opportunity.

His name is Kevin Avard, and he is a state representative. Good on paper, but once you delve into his views (or his public access show), you'll notice that he is a rabid men's rights activist who also thinks that Scott Brown is a Democrat.

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« Reply #131 on: June 11, 2014, 06:36:51 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2014, 08:48:41 AM by Midwest Governor windjammer »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Maine,_2014

Poliquin won. He was the anti establishment candidate I suppose?

EDIT: After reading this article, indeed. http://bangordailynews.com/2014/06/10/politics/elections/bruce-poliquin-leads-in-early-voting-tallies-in-2nd-congressional-district-republican-primary/

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« Reply #132 on: June 13, 2014, 01:00:07 AM »

Some good news for Juliette Kayyem: She's been endorsed by the Massachusetts House Majority Leader: http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/06/massachusetts_house_majority_l.html

And here's a great profile on her by the Boston Globe: http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/11/kayyem-refreshing-candidate/i3Ryn7jWgpBgHiJ9i4uqAO/story.html
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« Reply #133 on: June 13, 2014, 03:36:48 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2014, 03:39:40 PM by BeyondTruthAndIdeals »

As stated above, Maine's former State Treasurer, Bruce Poliquin has won the primary for ME-02.
This actually makes the race less competitive, as ME-02 is already a D+3 district, despite its huge rural population. Also, treasurer is not an elected position in ME, so Poliquin has never faced a general election before. I also find it unlikely that the GOP establishment would be willing to spend a lot of money on him. Would still keep an eye on this race though. Things probably will get interesting.
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« Reply #134 on: June 13, 2014, 05:06:39 PM »

Alright. Back to me sperging about New Hampshire State Senate races, now that the filing period is over. Have a few changes to make, and it's worth noting that the Tea Party wants to make another purge.

  • SD1: Safe D (D+4). This district is a classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove, and he is good to go, even if he wasn't facing in Some Dude
  • SD2: Likely R (PW) (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. She is easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has, and she is strongly favored to beat her opponent, school board member Carolyn Mello. (I know, dangerously close to Some Dudette)

    However, she is being primaried by part-time New Hampshirite and Free Stater Tim Condon, who practices law in Tampa Bay. If, for some odd reason Condon makes it past Forrester (who has a reputation for being in touch with her constituents), you can bet that Mello might have a chance.
  • SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory, even if he's facing Some Dude John White.
  • SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in this district, it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. South Hampton police chief (not in his district, but he lives in Dover) and former liquor commission official Eddie Edwards is running here. Watters is a weaker candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height, but overall, if this is Likely R, it is a very, very Likely R.
  • SD5: Safe D (D+15). This district is based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce would be safe, even if he wasn't facing anyone.
  • SD6: Likely R (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. He's a very strong challenger, but Cataldo is 77, so he might not have the energy to run here soon. Democrats never really put full effort into this race, and maybe his pro-death penalty stance will cause him to target others.
  • SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. Luckily for the GOP, he opted to sit out a run here again. Still, Hosmer has a decent opponent in former representative Kathy Lauer-Rago - she's a hardcore conservative, and he's a moderate, but considering there's no real attack on this race, we're fine.
  • SD8: Toss-up (OPEN) (R+1). Pro-choice, NARAL Republican Bob Odell has retired, giving Democrats a pickup opportunity in this race. Republicans, however, have a top-tier recruit in conservative activist and NHGOP Vice Chair JP Marzullo, but Odell is backing former banking lobbyist Jerry Little, shaping up for a competitive Republican primary. Meanwhile, Democrats have coalesced around Linda Tanner, a state representative who was just elected last year.
  • SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag and compared Obamacare to a fatal plane crash that killed two people. However, his worst offense came recently when he threatened to get a constituent's scholarship revoked because he supported marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time, and his opponent looking for a rematch, and he has a good chance of losing, despite this district's Republican lean.
  • SD-10: Safe D. (D+9). It's Keene. Republicans aren't contesting this seat, and Republicans won't contest this seat.
  • SD-11: Leans R (OPEN) (R+3).This all depends. It's a crowded primary, with three establishment candidates and one Tea Party candidate. Hynes is bringing in Free Staters to help him win this seat, and the other three establishment candidates are good enough to split the vote. Three establishments are godly.
  • SD-12: Toss-up (R+4). Although Peggy Gilmour has been applauded on both sides for being a bipartisan legislator, her district is a 51.9% Romney district. This rating hinges on which candidate Republicans nominate. The establishment will back Michael McCarthy, who seems to be reasonable for this district, but the Tea Party is backing Kevin Avard, a men's rights activist who's running against Scott Brown.
  • SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a near-anomaly in this district, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district if Lasky doesn't watch her back.
  • SD-14: Safe R: (R+9) Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got only 40%. Write this place off, even if Messner is running again.
  • SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) Sylvia Larsen may be retiring, but this isn't going anywhere
  • SD-16: Safe R (R+2). Wow, is all I can say. This was a bad recruitment failure on behalf of the New Hampshire Democratic Party - they decided to put all their eggs in one basket, and were banking on a Patrick Arnold run. He declined, and in the en-masse solidarity filing by all the Democratic candidates in the State Senate, none filed for this district.

    David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news for him - a libertarian got 950 more votes. The bad news - carpetbagger (from Alton) and arch-conservative Jane Cormier is running in the primary to take Boutin down from his right. This just looks bad for Democrats - while we did recruit competent candidates in safe districts, Cormier would have rolled back all progress in the entrenching of this seat, and Democrats needed to capitalize here.
  • SD-17: Likely R. (R+3) Reagan is more economically conservative, yet was one of the few marriage supporters in 2008, is pro-legalization, and his district tilts Republican. He ran a bad campaign last year, barely squeaking by his primary from Howard Pearl. He's seeking a rematch, and so is his opponent from last year, Nancy Fraher (who used to chair some small-town school board).
  • SD-18: Leans D. (R+2) Once again, another Tea Party vs. establishment case. The establishment is backing Manchester School Board member Robyn Dunphy, but the Tea Party is backing state representative. George Lambert. Lambert, to say the very least, is a nutcase. He is one of the few libertarian extremists left in the legislature, sponsoring a bill to require a warrant in all cases of domestic abuse, even if there is clear evidence because of "freedoms", and even advocated against suicide prevention classes because "shouldn't be deprived the choice of evaluating whether suicide is an option for them".
  • SD-19: Safe R. (OPEN SEAT) (R+9) R+9 district. However, Frank Sapareto, who supported a "gaygregation" bill in 2012 and voted against the same domestic violence bill I discussed in SD-18, could win the nomination, giving Democrats a crack in this race. I'd say this is Likely R with him, but Safe R with Birdsell and Foley.
  • SD-20: Safe D. (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
  • SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 10 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
  • SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
  • SD-23: Leans R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside. This isn't the same district Hassan held. Democrats have a better candidate in Donna Schlachman, but it'll be an uphill battle for her.
  • SD-24: Leans R. (PW) (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. However, some of her moderate stances regarding Medicaid expansion and gay marriage have been called into question, and she will be facing a top-tier primary challenge from businessman and AFP poster child Steve Kenda. Democrats have lots of room to hit Stiles here, but Kenda would be a much easier opponent.
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« Reply #135 on: June 15, 2014, 01:42:58 AM »

So, essentially, no interesting primaries on Democratic side, and quite a lot (usually with extreme right attacking more moderate counertparts) - on Republican? Plus - some "establishment" vs "tea-party" in open seats...
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« Reply #136 on: June 15, 2014, 02:21:25 AM »

So, essentially, no interesting primaries on Democratic side, and quite a lot (usually with extreme right attacking more moderate counertparts) - on Republican? Plus - some "establishment" vs "tea-party" in open seats...

Yeah. The conservatives are pushing hard against any senator who voted for Medicaid expansion - they passed a compromise plan this year with bipartisan support.

Reagan is the most socially liberal senator on the Republican side, though. He's being challenged by an establishment guy. I see him, Stiles, and possibly Boutin going down.

Forrester and Bradley should be good to go though.
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« Reply #137 on: June 15, 2014, 03:42:34 PM »

  • SD1: Safe D (D+4). This district is a classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove, and he is good to go, even if he wasn't facing in Some Dude
  • SD2: Likely R (PW) (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. She is easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has, and she is strongly favored to beat her opponent, school board member Carolyn Mello. (I know, dangerously close to Some Dudette)

    However, she is being primaried by part-time New Hampshirite and Free Stater Tim Condon, who practices law in Tampa Bay. If, for some odd reason Condon makes it past Forrester (who has a reputation for being in touch with her constituents), you can bet that Mello might have a chance.
  • SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory, even if he's facing Some Dude John White.
  • SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in this district, it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. South Hampton police chief (not in his district, but he lives in Dover) and former liquor commission official Eddie Edwards is running here. Watters is a weaker candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height, but overall, if this is Likely R, it is a very, very Likely R.
  • SD5: Safe D (D+15). This district is based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce would be safe, even if he wasn't facing anyone.
  • SD6: Likely R (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. He's a very strong challenger, but Cataldo is 77, so he might not have the energy to run here soon. Democrats never really put full effort into this race, and maybe his pro-death penalty stance will cause him to target others.
  • SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. Luckily for the GOP, he opted to sit out a run here again. Still, Hosmer has a decent opponent in former representative Kathy Lauer-Rago - she's a hardcore conservative, and he's a moderate, but considering there's no real attack on this race, we're fine.
  • SD8: Toss-up (OPEN) (R+1). Pro-choice, NARAL Republican Bob Odell has retired, giving Democrats a pickup opportunity in this race. Republicans, however, have a top-tier recruit in conservative activist and NHGOP Vice Chair JP Marzullo, but Odell is backing former banking lobbyist Jerry Little, shaping up for a competitive Republican primary. Meanwhile, Democrats have coalesced around Linda Tanner, a state representative who was just elected last year.
  • SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag and compared Obamacare to a fatal plane crash that killed two people. However, his worst offense came recently when he threatened to get a constituent's scholarship revoked because he supported marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time, and his opponent looking for a rematch, and he has a good chance of losing, despite this district's Republican lean.
  • SD-10: Safe D. (D+9). It's Keene. Republicans aren't contesting this seat, and Republicans won't contest this seat.
  • SD-11: Leans R (OPEN) (R+3).This all depends. It's a crowded primary, with three establishment candidates and one Tea Party candidate. Hynes is bringing in Free Staters to help him win this seat, and the other three establishment candidates are good enough to split the vote. Three establishments are godly.
  • SD-12: Toss-up (R+4). Although Peggy Gilmour has been applauded on both sides for being a bipartisan legislator, her district is a 51.9% Romney district. This rating hinges on which candidate Republicans nominate. The establishment will back Michael McCarthy, who seems to be reasonable for this district, but the Tea Party is backing Kevin Avard, a men's rights activist who's running against Scott Brown.
  • SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a near-anomaly in this district, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district if Lasky doesn't watch her back.
  • SD-14: Safe R: (R+9) Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got only 40%. Write this place off, even if Messner is running again.
  • SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) Sylvia Larsen may be retiring, but this isn't going anywhere
  • SD-16: Safe R (R+2). Wow, is all I can say. This was a bad recruitment failure on behalf of the New Hampshire Democratic Party - they decided to put all their eggs in one basket, and were banking on a Patrick Arnold run. He declined, and in the en-masse solidarity filing by all the Democratic candidates in the State Senate, none filed for this district.

    David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news for him - a libertarian got 950 more votes. The bad news - carpetbagger (from Alton) and arch-conservative Jane Cormier is running in the primary to take Boutin down from his right. This just looks bad for Democrats - while we did recruit competent candidates in safe districts, Cormier would have rolled back all progress in the entrenching of this seat, and Democrats needed to capitalize here.
  • SD-17: Likely R. (R+3) Reagan is more economically conservative, yet was one of the few marriage supporters in 2008, is pro-legalization, and his district tilts Republican. He ran a bad campaign last year, barely squeaking by his primary from Howard Pearl. He's seeking a rematch, and so is his opponent from last year, Nancy Fraher (who used to chair some small-town school board).
  • SD-18: Leans D. (R+2) Once again, another Tea Party vs. establishment case. The establishment is backing Manchester School Board member Robyn Dunphy, but the Tea Party is backing state representative. George Lambert. Lambert, to say the very least, is a nutcase. He is one of the few libertarian extremists left in the legislature, sponsoring a bill to require a warrant in all cases of domestic abuse, even if there is clear evidence because of "freedoms", and even advocated against suicide prevention classes because "shouldn't be deprived the choice of evaluating whether suicide is an option for them".
  • SD-19: Safe R. (OPEN SEAT) (R+9) R+9 district. However, Frank Sapareto, who supported a "gaygregation" bill in 2012 and voted against the same domestic violence bill I discussed in SD-18, could win the nomination, giving Democrats a crack in this race. I'd say this is Likely R with him, but Safe R with Birdsell and Foley.
  • SD-20: Safe D. (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
  • SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 10 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
  • SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
  • SD-23: Leans R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside. This isn't the same district Hassan held. Democrats have a better candidate in Donna Schlachman, but it'll be an uphill battle for her.
  • SD-24: Leans R. (PW) (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. However, some of her moderate stances regarding Medicaid expansion and gay marriage have been called into question, and she will be facing a top-tier primary challenge from businessman and AFP poster child Steve Kenda. Democrats have lots of room to hit Stiles here, but Kenda would be a much easier opponent.

I agree with your ratings for the most part, but I have a few differences:

District 6 (Cataldo): Lean R
If you reread your description, it sounds much more like Lean R than Likely R, which makes sense, because that's what it is.

District 7 (Hosmer): Likely D
If you reread your description, it sounds much more like Likely D than Lean D, which makes sense, because that's what it is.

District 11 (Open)Sad Toss-Up
Since, like you said, Hynes is the only Tea Partier facing three strong establishment candidates who will inevitably split the vote, he should almost certainly win the primary, especially since the Tea Party looks to be strong in the NH GOP this fall. For the general, the Dem may have low name recognition, but let's not forget why Hynes's is high- he's a felon, who did jail time for the extortion that took place during his very corrupt legal career.

District 13 (Lasky): Safe D
I agree that Lasky could *maybe* be a bit vulnerable in the future, but this is not the year. Her only Republican opponent is virtually unknown; she ran for State Rep last year and lost badly; she came in last place and hardly cracked double digits.

District 18 (Soucy): Likely D
Normally this district would Lean D for the reasons you described, but Soucy is incredibly strong and Lambert is likelier than most of the Tea Party candidates to win his primary.

Agreed that what happened in 16 is a huge disappointment.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #138 on: June 15, 2014, 08:18:23 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2014, 08:28:09 PM by brah »

District 18 (Soucy): Likely D
Normally this district would Lean D for the reasons you described, but Soucy is incredibly strong and Lambert is likelier than most of the Tea Party candidates to win his primary.

Agreed that what happened in 16 is a huge disappointment.

I agree with you for the most part, but I think the establishment might back Dunphy, and she might win the primary. I'm fully aware that Soucy has a long future in the senate, but I think Dunphy makes it competitive. It's a lean, but a strong lean.

As for Lambert, we all know she's safe if he gets the primary.
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badgate
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« Reply #139 on: June 15, 2014, 08:55:08 PM »


Sad to report that Kayyem only got 12% at the convention, 3% short of the threshold for the primary ballot. Sad

Hopefully she will run for something else, she is a fantastic candidate and her website is amazing. Of any Democrat running for Governor, her website showed that she was the only one that actually had ideas for what to do in office.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #140 on: June 24, 2014, 07:03:56 PM »

Jim Lawrence, a State Rep who filed at the last minute to run in the Republican primary along with Lambert and Garcia against Kuster in NH-2, is the first of the Republican candidates with an ad out. It's hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-peOirDtFQ
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IceSpear
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« Reply #141 on: June 24, 2014, 07:32:16 PM »

Jim Lawrence, a State Rep who filed at the last minute to run in the Republican primary along with Lambert and Garcia against Kuster in NH-2, is the first of the Republican candidates with an ad out. It's hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-peOirDtFQ

Looks like a high school class project.
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Miles
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« Reply #142 on: July 01, 2014, 05:04:01 PM »

Even if LePage didn't do anything wrong, this isn't the type of news you want to be making:

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NHLiberal
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« Reply #143 on: July 06, 2014, 10:26:58 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2014, 10:32:59 PM by NHLiberal »

Walt Havenstein, a candidate for Governor of New Hampshire and (at least until now) the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, makes 2 successive gaffes that will hurt him from both the right and the left, calling Tea Partiers "teabaggers" and then calling himself "out of touch"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3XYURXMzwA
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« Reply #144 on: August 17, 2014, 05:49:59 PM »

David Boutin caught drunk at a bar a few days ago.

This is comedy gold.
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Miles
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« Reply #145 on: August 26, 2014, 11:24:28 AM »

DKE says Bill Clinton is visiting Portland next week for Michaud.
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Vega
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« Reply #146 on: August 26, 2014, 04:55:51 PM »

DKE says Bill Clinton is visiting Portland next week for Michaud.

To be expected, I guess.
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windjammer
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« Reply #147 on: August 27, 2014, 06:07:26 AM »

Update Sawx???
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Miles
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« Reply #148 on: August 29, 2014, 06:36:05 PM »

Bill Clinton also going to CT for Malloy.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #149 on: August 30, 2014, 08:11:19 PM »

Boston Globe endorses Grossman in the Dem primary.
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