Official New England 2014 Megathread

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Anything New England goes here, from Greenwich and Providence to Burlington and Bar Harbor.

To start things off, Stella Tremblay, the NH state representative who claimed that the Boston bombings were staged, has resigned after she emailed the entire state house about how the bombings were staged. Considering she only won the primary last year by 60 votes without the crazy theories she wouldn't have lasted.

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And now there are some rumblings that Paul LePage might not seek reelection after his budget veto was overridden.

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And now there are some rumblings that Paul LePage might not seek reelection after his budget veto was overridden.

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I'm not sure a retirement will help us or the dems. After all, he's really disliked! So if the republicans manage to choose a decent republican, we are dead, and cutler too!

It certainly hurts us. If someone that isn't a crazy bagger runs I could see a victory.

I'm guessing possible candidates include Kevin Raye, Peter Mills, Charlie Summers, Bruce Poliquin, and a few others. Basically the usual suspects.

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Looking into NH-Gov and what little news on that front, it's looking like I have to apologize for my state government again. This time we have Andy Sanborn, a candidate exploring for 2014 and a Tea Party state senator who's no stranger to controversy. This time, he's in hot water for comparing Obamacare to the San Francisco plane crash.

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He last attracted controversy by referring to Maggie Hassan as "Haggie", tweeting "Leaders bring solutions, commissions find excuses. Haggie can't lead." He attributed it to "sloppy multitasking" and "mistakenly combining her first and last name". Interestingly enough, the NHGOP chair's response to the criticism from the NHDP resembled more of one of Krazen's responses to this thread than her, saying that "Maggie Hassan's minions are feigning outrage about a typo because they are trying to distract from the embarrassing defeat of her irresponsible budget proposal in the Democrat-controlled New Hampshire House."

Of course with opponents like him and Kevin Smith and a chair who's defended personal attacks against her, Governor Hassan will be safe for re-election. She's seemed to please everyone while remaining inoffensive. However, it's interesting to note that only 213 votes separated Sanborn and his opponent from getting re-elected to his Senate seat. With a margin that slim, even with turnout a rematch would probably end up in Nyquist's favor. His words are putting his caucus's majority in danger, and if Medex is a huge issue, I could see Democrats taking the majority.

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Former representative Frank Guinta is very aggressively moving towards running in NH-1.

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There's nothing better than the other party coalescing around a corrupt extremist who's simply a terrible fit for the state. Now that he doesn't have incumbency he can't spend taxpayers' money on mail thinly disguised as a campaign advertisement, and he can still be hit for a mystery account of $355,000 that he never got, lied about not paying his student loans, and in general is corrupt and right-wing enough to lose one of the easier tossups in the state. I'd say in today's environment it Tilts D with him and could even go as far as a full lean. But on the other hand, this is who I'm scared for...

And on the more moderate side of things, UNH's business school's dean, Dan Innis, is exploring a run for CD-1.

Dan Innis is a gay Republican who's mainly known for fiscal conservatism. He's on the Concord Committee, and he's very vocal about fiscal responsibility. However, he's also pro-education (he opposes the steep cuts to the university system), very pro-environment, and naturally pro-gay marriage. Hasn't spoken on abortion, but I'd imagine he's to the left of Guinta.

I'd say if he gets past the primary he has a great chance at knocking off Shea-Porter. The only reason it's changed hands is because of the incumbents' more polarized ideologies. Being a progressive in the biggest wave in recent history killed Shea-Porter, and being to the right of Todd Akin on abortion killed Guinta. Any moderate could make this seat safe, and if Innis does win I think he can hold onto this seat for as long as he pleases.

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Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

I'd love to see that.

Anyways, 2012 candidate and conservative activist Kevin Smith is out for governor.  The NHGOP is having a hard time fielding a candidate to the point that the only real enthusiastic one is in trouble for calling Maggie Hassan a hag and comparing Obamacare to the SF plane crash. Let's assume she's safe for 2014.

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Mike Michaud's internal has him up by 9 on LePage and Cutler. 40/31/26. Interestingly enough this is one of the more accurate Democratic pollsters out there. It got MN6 and the result for NH on the money, and it was a percent away from the result in IA4. No link, but it isn't a push poll or anything, so color me optimistic, especially if LePage is barely treading water to stay above 30%.

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Yeah, she's safe. No idea about Bragdon, but he's very unlikely to run. A poll by WMUR/UNH had Hassan at a 58% approval rating, and Republicans are having a hard time fielding a candidate.

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Senate President Peter Bragdon has taken a job as the director of the Local Government Center, which oversees a health trust, worker's comp, and legal advice. He'll be staying on.

Sounds like a conflict of interest to me. Manchester Mayor and former Senator Ted Gatsas even said it's "impossible" for him to remain Senate President and essentially called for his resignation. The fact that the Senate President now has power over the largest insurer in the state is extremely shady to me.

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Great news!

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Senate President Peter Bragdon stepped down yesterday, and it's looking like Senator and candidate for higher office Chuck Morse wants to succeed him. Consider him out of contention.

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House seats are up every two years, and Republicans governed far to the right. They decimated funding for secondary education, tried to pass an Arizona-style immigration law here of all places, and basically governed like we were in Oklahoma. Add to the fact that O'Brien seemed more interested in RINO hunting than keeping his majority (two moderates in the party would have probably won if they didn't split the big Republican town off of the district) and you have a hilarious amount of incompetence.

The scary thing is Democrats might actually tie for the Senate if Sanborn defers to someone else for Governor. He's in a lot of hot water lately and only won by a razor-thin margin.

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House seats are up every two years, and Republicans governed far to the right. They decimated funding for secondary education, tried to pass an Arizona-style immigration law here of all places, and basically governed like we were in Oklahoma. Add to the fact that O'Brien seemed more interested in RINO hunting than keeping his majority (two moderates in the party would have probably won if they didn't split the big Republican town off of the district) and you have a hilarious amount of incompetence.

The scary thing is Democrats might actually tie for the Senate if Sanborn defers to someone else for Governor. He's in a lot of hot water lately and only won by a razor-thin margin.

When you despise something Sawx, it's really funny how you explain this, you're really ironical you know .

And are the dems a chance to regain the senate or the gop successfully gerrymandered the legislature in 2010?

Yes, there's at least a chance to tie it. Like I said, if Sanborn doesn't run for Governor like he's planning he'll probably lose. He only won by around 200 votes in a neutral climate, and he's most famous for calling Maggie Hassan a hag and comparing Obamacare to the SF plane crash.   If Democrats can capitalize on that they have a tie. SD9 (R+1) is in swing territory, and "accidentally" calling anyone in public office a hag most likely gets you kicked out.

If libertarians can siphon enough votes off of the Republican candidate like they almost did in SD16 (R+2), they can lose. If people in SD24 (R+1) realize that their state senator flipflopped on her moderate credentials, they're down another seat. If Bradley goes for higher office then SD3 (R+1) looks a lot better for Democrats. Hell, if Bragdon (R+2) retires this year or a high-profile candidate takes him on, he could lose because of the scandal that's still flying around him.

At the same time Democrats have to hold on to SD18 (R+2, if Beaudry runs again he could siphon off votes from Soucy) and SD12 (R+1). I think it's doable to take the Senate.

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Thanks for your answer! If I remembered correctly, you had a picture of you with Maggie Hassan. So maybe you know her personally! Do you know if she thinks about running against Ayotte in 2016?

I do know her but haven't gotten into a discussion about Ayotte.

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Umm... That's a letter.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

I'll expect them to adopt an Arkansas-style version that's more focused towards private insurance. Stiles is for this compromise.

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

>338 Romney votes
>Michigan flips
>338

Everyone listen to this guy, Ayotte is safer than Barrasso.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/17/new-hampshire-will-hold-special-session-on-medicaid-expansion/

Yes!

I'll expect them to adopt an Arkansas-style version that's more focused towards private insurance. Stiles is for this compromise.

The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.

No, she's not.

>338 Romney votes
>Michigan flips
>338

Everyone listen to this guy, Ayotte is safer than Barrasso.

Will the NH governor try to unseat her?

No idea.

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Missed this. This is Susan Collins' primary challenger.

He's got less of a chance than Stockman does.

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And it turns out Bridgegate might have some regional spillover into here - the guy who asked the Fort Lee mayor for his endorsement is now the executive director of the NHGOP. He's essentially second-in-command to Jennifer Horn, the chairwoman who's there.

And in other news, activist/businessman Andrew Hemingway will decide on a run for governor soon. Republicans might just get their candidate after all - Bill Binnie isn't chomping at the bit to get into the political game, and John Stephen is just another Ovide Lamontagne.

To give you a flyover, Andrew Hemingway's a very interesting candidate. He's very young and he's from the conservative wing of the party. He chairs the Republican Liberty Caucus in NH ran as an outsider against Horn for chair of the state, but lost, and he headed Newt Gingrich's campaign in New Hampshire. He's not going to be your generic establishment candidate and he's probably not going to win, but getting his name out there would do wonders for him if Hassan or Kuster opt for a run at Ayotte's seat.

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Call me biased, but I think Allan Fung and Charlie Baker each has a solid chance of winning their respective governorships.

I admittedly don't know that much about Fung, but Baker could definitely win. The specter of 2009 still looms over her candidacy for me - that's why I'm supporting Kayyem.

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Call me biased, but I think Allan Fung and Charlie Baker each has a solid chance of winning their respective governorships.

I admittedly don't know that much about Fung, but Baker could definitely win. The specter of 2009 still looms over her candidacy for me - that's why I'm supporting Kayyem.

Fung is very popular in RI. Probably the only Republican that could have success in Rhode Island at this point.

That's what I thought.

Welcome to the forum, btw. I just go to college in Pennsylvania - I'm a New Englander at heart (specifically NH if you couldn't tell).

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State Rep. Marilinda Garcia (R) is running against Kuster.

And again - the same. An ultraconservative in Democratic-leaning New England district, which even relatively moderate Bass held with serious difficulties (and was defeated twice). Idiocy. Even NH-01 is more conservative...

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. She's pretty much the definition of a paper tiger - she gets talked about because she can help outreach to Hispanics and women, but in reality, there's not a real opening unless Salem gets redistricted into the first district. She's better off running against Shaheen or 'going for the governor's mansion once there's an opening (and with her vote against pot legalization there really isn't one). She's also said on Twitter that she would have slapped Joe Biden if she was Paul Ryan, and that "she's not a fan" of John Boehner.

In addition, her press release lists 70 state legislators who "stood with her" as she campaigned. When it turned out 3 of them were actually endorsing her opponent, she said that they were "just friends, not endorsers".  I'm thinking we're going to see a split between the Paulites and the establishment here. I'm, needless to say, praying for a Garcia victory.

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I'm thinking we're going to see a split between the Paulites and the establishment here. I'm, needless to say, praying for a Garcia victory.

Another candidate being Gary Lambert? Very conservative too. It's a sort of irony that more conservative 1st has a relatively moderate Republican candidate (Innis) (though it's more likely that conservative Guinta will be nominated again), while more moderate 2nd  - only "genuine conservatives"...

Yeah. The liberty movement's not enthused on Garcia, but Lambert is more of a socon than she is. They'll either stay home or vote third party.

Innis is a candidate that many people (including me) have talked about glowingly, but has no real chance at victory. A little after he declared, a huge problem rose up - not only did he vote in the Democratic primary in 2012, but he voted for his friend (and from what I've heard his business associate), whose only real difference from Hassan was campaigning on an income tax. He'd be a good fit for the district, but there's no doubt he will be painted as a tax-and-spend RINO.

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And Marilinda Garcia's campaign rollout has hit a huge roadblock.

She was caught posting this list of state representatives who "stood with her as she launched her campaign:


Sounds like an endorsement, right? Problem is, four state representatives have come out as not endorsing her, and Al Baldasaro is starting to walk back after they found his endorsement over a Facebook comment.

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New Hampshire state Senator Andy Sanborn is in controversy again. This time, he got caught threatening to revoke his constituent's scholarship for supporting legalization.

I hope this douchebag loses next fall. I'd give up a Martha Fuller Clark or a Sylvia Larsen in a heartbeat just to get this bully out of office. Maggie Hassan may be a supporter of the police lobby, but at least she isn't a piece of human garbage who threatens to ruin someone's life over their opinion.