Official New England 2014 Megathread (user search)

Quote from: brah on June 13, 2014, 05:06:39 PM

SD1: Safe D (D+4). This district is a classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove, and he is good to go, even if he wasn't facing in Some Dude
SD2: Likely R (PW) (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. She is easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has, and she is strongly favored to beat her opponent, school board member Carolyn Mello. (I know, dangerously close to Some Dudette)

However, she is being primaried by part-time New Hampshirite and Free Stater Tim Condon, who practices law in Tampa Bay. If, for some odd reason Condon makes it past Forrester (who has a reputation for being in touch with her constituents), you can bet that Mello might have a chance.
SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory, even if he's facing Some Dude John White.
SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in this district, it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. South Hampton police chief (not in his district, but he lives in Dover) and former liquor commission official Eddie Edwards is running here. Watters is a weaker candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height, but overall, if this is Likely R, it is a very, very Likely R.
SD5: Safe D (D+15). This district is based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce would be safe, even if he wasn't facing anyone.
SD6: Likely R (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. He's a very strong challenger, but Cataldo is 77, so he might not have the energy to run here soon. Democrats never really put full effort into this race, and maybe his pro-death penalty stance will cause him to target others.
SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. Luckily for the GOP, he opted to sit out a run here again. Still, Hosmer has a decent opponent in former representative Kathy Lauer-Rago - she's a hardcore conservative, and he's a moderate, but considering there's no real attack on this race, we're fine.
SD8: Toss-up (OPEN) (R+1). Pro-choice, NARAL Republican Bob Odell has retired, giving Democrats a pickup opportunity in this race. Republicans, however, have a top-tier recruit in conservative activist and NHGOP Vice Chair JP Marzullo, but Odell is backing former banking lobbyist Jerry Little, shaping up for a competitive Republican primary. Meanwhile, Democrats have coalesced around Linda Tanner, a state representative who was just elected last year.
SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag and compared Obamacare to a fatal plane crash that killed two people. However, his worst offense came recently when he threatened to get a constituent's scholarship revoked because he supported marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time, and his opponent looking for a rematch, and he has a good chance of losing, despite this district's Republican lean.
SD-10: Safe D. (D+9). It's Keene. Republicans aren't contesting this seat, and Republicans won't contest this seat.
SD-11: Leans R (OPEN) (R+3).This all depends. It's a crowded primary, with three establishment candidates and one Tea Party candidate. Hynes is bringing in Free Staters to help him win this seat, and the other three establishment candidates are good enough to split the vote. Three establishments are godly.
SD-12: Toss-up (R+4). Although Peggy Gilmour has been applauded on both sides for being a bipartisan legislator, her district is a 51.9% Romney district. This rating hinges on which candidate Republicans nominate. The establishment will back Michael McCarthy, who seems to be reasonable for this district, but the Tea Party is backing Kevin Avard, a men's rights activist who's running against Scott Brown.
SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a near-anomaly in this district, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district if Lasky doesn't watch her back.
SD-14: Safe R: (R+9) Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got only 40%. Write this place off, even if Messner is running again.
SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) Sylvia Larsen may be retiring, but this isn't going anywhere
SD-16: Safe R (R+2). Wow, is all I can say. This was a bad recruitment failure on behalf of the New Hampshire Democratic Party - they decided to put all their eggs in one basket, and were banking on a Patrick Arnold run. He declined, and in the en-masse solidarity filing by all the Democratic candidates in the State Senate, none filed for this district.

David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news for him - a libertarian got 950 more votes. The bad news - carpetbagger (from Alton) and arch-conservative Jane Cormier is running in the primary to take Boutin down from his right. This just looks bad for Democrats - while we did recruit competent candidates in safe districts, Cormier would have rolled back all progress in the entrenching of this seat, and Democrats needed to capitalize here.
SD-17: Likely R. (R+3) Reagan is more economically conservative, yet was one of the few marriage supporters in 2008, is pro-legalization, and his district tilts Republican. He ran a bad campaign last year, barely squeaking by his primary from Howard Pearl. He's seeking a rematch, and so is his opponent from last year, Nancy Fraher (who used to chair some small-town school board).
SD-18: Leans D. (R+2) Once again, another Tea Party vs. establishment case. The establishment is backing Manchester School Board member Robyn Dunphy, but the Tea Party is backing state representative. George Lambert. Lambert, to say the very least, is a nutcase. He is one of the few libertarian extremists left in the legislature, sponsoring a bill to require a warrant in all cases of domestic abuse, even if there is clear evidence because of "freedoms", and even advocated against suicide prevention classes because "shouldn't be deprived the choice of evaluating whether suicide is an option for them".
SD-19: Safe R. (OPEN SEAT) (R+9) R+9 district. However, Frank Sapareto, who supported a "gaygregation" bill in 2012 and voted against the same domestic violence bill I discussed in SD-18, could win the nomination, giving Democrats a crack in this race. I'd say this is Likely R with him, but Safe R with Birdsell and Foley.
SD-20: Safe D. (D+1) Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 10 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
SD-23: Leans R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside. This isn't the same district Hassan held. Democrats have a better candidate in Donna Schlachman, but it'll be an uphill battle for her.
SD-24: Leans R. (PW) (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. However, some of her moderate stances regarding Medicaid expansion and gay marriage have been called into question, and she will be facing a top-tier primary challenge from businessman and AFP poster child Steve Kenda. Democrats have lots of room to hit Stiles here, but Kenda would be a much easier opponent.

I agree with your ratings for the most part, but I have a few differences:

District 6 (Cataldo): Lean R
If you reread your description, it sounds much more like Lean R than Likely R, which makes sense, because that's what it is.

District 7 (Hosmer): Likely D
If you reread your description, it sounds much more like Likely D than Lean D, which makes sense, because that's what it is.

District 11 (Open) Sad

Toss-Up
Since, like you said, Hynes is the only Tea Partier facing three strong establishment candidates who will inevitably split the vote, he should almost certainly win the primary, especially since the Tea Party looks to be strong in the NH GOP this fall. For the general, the Dem may have low name recognition, but let's not forget why Hynes's is high- he's a felon, who did jail time for the extortion that took place during his very corrupt legal career.

District 13 (Lasky): Safe D
I agree that Lasky could *maybe* be a bit vulnerable in the future, but this is not the year. Her only Republican opponent is virtually unknown; she ran for State Rep last year and lost badly; she came in last place and hardly cracked double digits.

District 18 (Soucy): Likely D
Normally this district would Lean D for the reasons you described, but Soucy is incredibly strong and Lambert is likelier than most of the Tea Party candidates to win his primary.

Agreed that what happened in 16 is a huge disappointment.

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