Official New England 2014 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Has Peter Bragdon thought about running for NH Governor?  I would really love to see Hassan out in 2014.  But barring a major change between now and then, it probably won't happen.

Hassan is, probably, unbeatable in any year, but wave one, like 2010, and, probably, even in such year. Almost surely - she will not be beaten by "solid conservative"

[smoltchanov]

Won't happen, but Ned Lamont really should challenge Dan Malloy.

Here's a good criticism of Malloy though.

Nah CT usually goes for Moderate Republican Governors. Malloy beat Foley by 1 % in 2010. Weicker and Malloy were/are mistakes that I think Connecticut voters regret putting into office. They are looking for a John Rowland type without the corruption issues of course.

Rowland??? Jodi Rell was MUCH more popular then he EVER was..

[smoltchanov]

Call me biased, but I think Allan Fung and Charlie Baker each has a solid chance of winning their respective governorships.

1. Is it you, who banned me on RMG?)))))

2. Fung needs Avedisian to improve his chances. Despite these elections being separate they could form excellent "unofficial ticket".

[smoltchanov]

Call me biased, but I think Allan Fung and Charlie Baker each has a solid chance of winning their respective governorships.

1. Is it you, who banned me on RMG?)))))

2. Fung needs Avedisian to improve his chances. Despite these elections being separate they could form excellent "unofficial ticket".

No, I don't know what RMG is.

Red Mass Group. A site of rather very partisan Republicans from Massachusetts. There is Cordeiro among that site admns, so, i think, my question was natural. My apologies then...

[smoltchanov]

Call me biased, but I think Allan Fung and Charlie Baker each has a solid chance of winning their respective governorships.

1. Is it you, who banned me on RMG?)))))

2. Fung needs Avedisian to improve his chances. Despite these elections being separate they could form excellent "unofficial ticket".

No, I don't know what RMG is.

Red Mass Group. A site of rather very partisan Republicans from Massachusetts. There is Cordeiro among that site admns, so, i think, my question was natural. My apologies then...

Is this the only political forum you aren't banned from?

No there is, at least, 5 other forums))) Though i acknowledge my "combative nature"))))

[smoltchanov]

Mark Fisher (candidate for Governor in MA, running for the Republican nomination) spoke to FOX 25 Boston last night. I supported him originally, but he doesn't seem overly knowledgable on the issues, and dodged some questions from the reporter. I am supporting Charlie Baker for Governor, because I believe he is our best chance to win.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=9753317#.Ut_SO9MYFVQ.facebook

Fisher, with his strong tea-party views, would be an automatic loss in Massachusetts. When Republicans will stop running unwinnable far-rightists at least there?

[smoltchanov]

State Rep. Marilinda Garcia (R) is running against Kuster.

And again - the same. An ultraconservative in Democratic-leaning New England district, which even relatively moderate Bass held with serious difficulties (and was defeated twice). Idiocy. Even NH-01 is more conservative...

[smoltchanov]

I'm thinking we're going to see a split between the Paulites and the establishment here. I'm, needless to say, praying for a Garcia victory.

Another candidate being Gary Lambert? Very conservative too. It's a sort of irony that more conservative 1st has a relatively moderate Republican candidate (Innis) (though it's more likely that conservative Guinta will be nominated again), while more moderate 2nd  - only "genuine conservatives"...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah. The liberty movement's not enthused on Garcia, but Lambert is more of a socon than she is. They'll either stay home or vote third party.

Innis is a candidate that many people (including me) have talked about glowingly, but has no real chance at victory. A little after he declared, a huge problem rose up - not only did he vote in the Democratic primary in 2012, but he voted for his friend (and from what I've heard his business associate), whose only real difference from Hassan was campaigning on an income tax. He'd be a good fit for the district, but there's no doubt he will be painted as a tax-and-spend RINO.

I read about that too... Yes, for (probably) a majority of Republican voters (especially in tax-averse New Hampshire, and, especially, in 1st district) it's, most likely, an absolute "no go"...

[smoltchanov]

He very barely won in 2012. So - quite possible

[smoltchanov]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

Tea-party idiots happen everywhere, even in the most liberal states like Massachusetts. An examples - many on RMG, i mentioned couple of times: despite utter impossibility of winning anything substantial (above state legislative seats, and even them - not so many) for their beloved far-rightists, the only answer you get from them is "I will not vote for such and such RINO, i want a genuine conservative". They don't care that such conservative absolutely can't win s statewide or Congressional race in the state. Usually, in such cases i end all talk with an advice: "Move to Oklahoma!!"

[smoltchanov]

Charlie Baker, Richard Tisei face the Tea Party smear

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/01/28/charlie-baker-richard-tisei-face-tea-party-smear/W1PrrhYTSp9vmhxqyuCC5J/story.html

I thought this was an interesting article, portraying the political climate in Massachusetts.

Tea-party idiots happen everywhere, even in the most liberal states like Massachusetts. An examples - many on RMG, i mentioned couple of times: despite utter impossibility of winning anything substantial (above state legislative seats, and even them - not so many) for their beloved far-rightists, the only answer you get from them is "I will not vote for such and such RINO, i want a genuine conservative". They don't care that such conservative absolutely can't win s statewide or Congressional race in the state. Usually, in such cases i end all talk with an advice: "Move to Oklahoma!!"

This.

I easily admit that Baker and Tisei don't have anything in common with Tea-party and would vote for both if i could. New England (especially Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont) desperately need more bipartisan politics. But to even have a shot Republicans must understand- these states will never (in foreseable future) vote for right-wing, even "moderate incarnation of Romney" (in 2002) won with great difficulty. They need to run pragmstists - centrists (with some conservative streak on fiscal matters) on economy and liberals on social issues, which most people in these states are. In 90th they could even win in Suffolk county (Boston) (they held DA post there), now that's seems impossible. Rjght now they have exactly 1 statewide elected official in 3 states i mentioned - Lt. Governor of Vermont Phil Scott (exact moderate). They need much more of such candidates, not less. And even then it will take time to turn around almost reflexive unwillingness of most people in these 3 states to even consider Republican candidates.

Similar situation - in Connecticut and even Maine (LePage is an aberration). Only New Hampshire votes sometimes for "genuine conservatives", and even it - not so frequently (in wave years)

P.S. And yes - Democrats readily use "tea-party bogus" in New England. Just as Republicans exploit "Obam-Pelosi bogus" in the South. Both things are absolutely dirty, but - it's politics.

[smoltchanov]

The family of former Executive Councilor Ray Burton (R-NH) endorses Democrat Mike Cryans in the race for his open seat.

I don't think I ever posted anything about this, but to give you an idea, Ray Burton was a legend in New Hampshire, especially the North Country. He's served from 1976 to 1978, but won his seat back in 1980 and held it until he died last November. He was a master of retail politics, and was known for his tireless efforts to attract attention to the North Country. His family's endorsement is a huge coup for Democrats, who hold the Executive Council by a 3-2 margin.

Republicans again nominated the most conservative candidate (may be - because only "base" turned out for specials, and primary turnout was very low), while Burton was very moderate. So - naturally)))

[smoltchanov]

A NH legislator is introducing a bill that would make "none of above" an option for elections, like in NV.

Good for situation when you viscerally hate all candidates)))

[smoltchanov]

And Bob Odell has retired.

This was a 51% Obama district, and the NH GOP, like I said, has a top tier candidate in Vice Chair Marzullo. However, Odell's retirement is a boon to Democrats - I would say control of the Senate only Tilts R, but that might be wishful thinking.

There's no doubt that it's competitive though.

With Marzullo being much more conservative (at least - fiscally, but, probably, socially too) then Odell  - Democrats get good chances in 8th. But a lot will be dependent on candidates... Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

A sort of the afterthought: while Bob Odell is, surely, a moderate, 15 (and even 10) years ago there were much more moderate (in some cases - openly liberal) Republican legislators in New Hampshire legislature. Generally the same - everywhere else in New England: from Maine to Connecticut (i could mention a lot of names here, but state legislators are less known, so many will not recognize them anyway). And that in a period of time when these states generally moved left (may be - not so much in last 10 years, but surely - in 15, especially - on social issues). So, while states moved LEFT, Republican candidates and elected legislators in these states moved RIGHT. Why???

[smoltchanov]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

Change of guard?

[smoltchanov]

House Speaker Terie Norelli is also retiring.

Change of guard?

Steve Shurtleff will probably ascend to Speaker. I admittedly don't pay much attention to the NH House that much - there's way too much to keep track of.

Sure. But i fear that if Republicans will regain majority there (and there is a substantial chance of it) we will get second edition of O'Brien..

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK, Odell and Styles are usually considered the most moderate Republicans in New Hampshire state Senate (especially on social issues). Will it be good for both of them to be replaced by tea-partiers?

[smoltchanov]

So, almost surely, 5-0 again? Well, not bad, but somewhat boring...))

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! I know there will be lot of open seats and some primary defeats in House races, and, as i see from your posts, substantial turnout in state Senate too. My queston is about ideology - the Democratic caucus (with rare exceptions like 2 Paulists in House) runs, generally speaking from center-left to solid left ideologically. 15 years ago there was a lot of moderate (and some - openly liberal) Republicans in legislature, but now even the most moderate (Kidder, Gargasz and so on) Republican legislators sit somewhere not far from center (may be - very slightly left of it for most moderate). Will the tendency continue this year with retirements of such "moderate stalwarts" as Bob Odell? Or we can expect greater moderation in this swingy (though somewhat Democratic-leaning) state?

[smoltchanov]

So, essentially, no interesting primaries on Democratic side, and quite a lot (usually with extreme right attacking more moderate counertparts) - on Republican? Plus - some "establishment" vs "tea-party" in open seats...

[smoltchanov]

Boston Globe endorses Grossman in the Dem primary.

Naturally. He seems to be "business Democrats" candidate. And, probably, better GE candidate then Coakley.

[smoltchanov]

Boston Globe endorses Moulton.

One more "business Democrat". Socially liberal, but not anti-business..

[smoltchanov]

I may be bias, but Baker is seeing a ton of momentum in Massachusetts. Hopefully it continues

Baker is rather good candidate, but Massachusetts is too Democratic and too liberal simultaneously for him to win barring Democratic candidate gaffes. But, this Democratic candidate being (probably) Coakley - everything is possible...