Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota

[they don't love you like i love you]

http://www.startribune.com/stories/784/4702737.html

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Seven months before the election, Democratic Sen. John Kerry has a 12-point lead over Republican President Bush in Minnesota, according to the latest Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

The poll, conducted last week, showed Kerry leading Bush, 50 percent to 38 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had backing from 2 percent of the state's likely voters.

The poll carried plenty of potentially troubling news for the president. A majority of voters -- 52 percent -- say the country is pretty seriously off on the wrong track, and one of Bush's biggest problems is that voters perceive him to have a lack of compassion.

Far more chose Kerry over Bush as being in tune with Minnesotans on the issues.

They also said Kerry is more likely to side with the average citizen. And while 49 percent view the president favorably, 46 percent have an unfavorable impression of him, a high negative rating for an incumbent. That negative rating is higher for Bush than at any time during the 2000 campaign.

(requires registration, but you can just use username/password weallbleed/weallbleed.)

and after all the people saying Bush would definately win here just because we elected a Republican governor with 44% and a Republican Senator with 44.5%! Let's not forget Bush has been pounding his stupid ads nonstop here.

[© tweed]

riiiiiight.  No way Kerry is up 12 in Minnesota.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He's a hell of a lot more popular than Bush here, let me tell you that.

[agcatter]

Could be right but I doubt it.  Bush running even or leading in Wisconsin in two recent polls  and trailing by 12 in Minn?  Something screwy with this picture.  I would be surprised if Kerry was not leading in Minn - not by double digits however.

[© tweed]

He's a hell of a lot more popular than Bush here, let me tell you that.

That's what everybody says.  80% of people who took the exit poll in TX thought Kerry would win there come November.

[Dave from Michigan]

does it even say the margin of error I couldn't find it. Bush could lose Minnesota and still win

[Dave from Michigan]

the margin of error is most likely like 13%

[they don't love you like i love you]

Do you have any clue how a MoE is calculated? 13% would be a poll of about 50 people.

[they don't love you like i love you]

57, now that I calculate it.

[Dave from Michigan]

Do you have any clue how a MoE is calculated? 13% would be a poll of about 50 people.

I was just joking I know it wouldn't be 13%

[Fritz]

Woo-hoo!!!  I knew Bush couldn't take this state.

[© tweed]

Woo-hoo!!!  I knew Bush couldn't take this state.

He will.  Mark my words.

[Dave from Michigan]

Woo-hoo!!!  I knew Bush couldn't take this state.

the elections 7 months away!

[12th Doctor]

I don't trust this poll.

[© tweed]

I don't trust this poll.

I don't either.  Any polls that has John Kerry up 12 in a battleground is waaaaaayyyy off.

[12th Doctor]

I don't trust this poll.

I don't either.  Any polls that has John F'ing Kerry up 12 in a battleground is waaaaaayyyy off.

Not just that, but it really goes against my intuition and ALL of the political data that you can find on the state.

[© tweed]

I don't trust this poll.

I don't either.  Any polls that has John Kerry up 12 in a battleground is waaaaaayyyy off.

Not just that, but it really goes against my intuition and ALL of the political data that you can find on the state.

Well don't make the mistake of using 2002 as a Minnesota barometer, Coleman won because of Wellstone's death and the Gov won because of the MN Grssroots.

[The Vorlon]

Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks..

[agcatter]

Once again, Vorlon is the voice of sanity here.

[agcatter]

I'd guess Kerry up 3 - 5 pts.  However, there didn't to seem to be more than a one or two pt spike nationally for Kerry in the middle of Clark according to Rasmussen.  Polls will drive us all crazy before this thing is done!

[The Vorlon]

I'd guess Kerry up 3 - 5 pts.  However, there didn't to seem to be more than a one or two pt spike nationally for Kerry in the middle of Clark according to Rasmussen.  Polls will drive us all crazy before this thing is done!

Rasmussen weights by Party Id - It levels out spikes, thats why they do it.

This poll did not do similar weighting, hence a big blip.

No surprises here ...

[agcatter]

Vorlon, what about Rasmussen polling on weekends.  Doesn't that hurt Bush's weekend numbers.  I remember in 2000 he didn't poll on Sat night if I recall correctly.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, what about Rasmussen polling on weekends.  Doesn't that hurt Bush's weekend numbers.  I remember in 2000 he didn't poll on Sat night if I recall correctly.

"in theory" a properly designed sample will filter out the so called "weekend effect",

as a practical matter.. it "almost" does.. ya, there is probably about a 2 point weekly "ripple" in the data going every day...

Again, it's no big deal...

[Dave from Michigan]

this poll is whack

[Beet]

The poll does get one result in common with the Gallup poll of the national mood... it showed only 40 percent thought the nation was headed in the right direction. Gallup showed about the same percentages nationally (60 percent said they were generally unsatisifed with the way things were going). Since theres an oversample of Democrats/leaners in this poll, Minnesotans are probably slightly more likely to answer "yes" to that question than nationally.