Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota

[Ben.]

this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shale we….

Personally I would expect Kerry to win MN by between 2-4%... largely thanks to no “La Duke” factor (Nader got 7%!)… the 2002 results are far more complicated than showing a GOP resurgence in the state… Coleman won thanks to Wellstone dieing and Tim Pawlenty won thanks to a strong third party showing…both Pawlenty and Coleman are working hard to establish themselves and secure their positions as both know how precariously positioned they are…

In Conclusion Minnesota will be close but its history and the situation in the state at present would suggest that it will go to Kerry however it will never go to him by that kinda margin!... between 2-4% ditto in Iowa to….  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I had Kerry leading in MN... but not by 12 points.
I'm a hellofalot more worried about Wisconsin than Minnesota...

[© tweed]

Bush will win Minnesota.  End of story.

[Ben.]

Bush will win Minnesota.  End of story.

Don't see Bush winning MN... it will be close but i dont see him winning it... neither do i see him winning MI or WA... having said that MN could well be a toss-up... we'll see.... WI and most the midwest worries me as well as PA... i just dont know if Kerry is the guy we need and i worry about the platform, his tax plan was good though... god i miss Bill Clinton!  

[© tweed]

With bush tacking 5 or more % on to his national total, he will pick up alot of states.  I say nationally it will be 54-45% in favor of bush.

[Ben.]

With bush tacking 5 or more % on to his national total, he will pick up alot of states.  I say nationally it will be 54-45% in favor of bush.

I really don’t think that Kerry would do that poorly… I think that as things stand at the moment (and not ruling out a Kerry win)… I’d say Kerry gets 48.3% to 49.7% for Bush while Nader rakes in a pathetic .9% … and if your prediction where correct then surly Kerry would lose WV yet your map has him winning?... I won’t deny that Kerry could lose badly; I just don’t think it will come to that…    

[© tweed]

I think WV will go our way, I just do.  They coal miners are gonna vote this year, as Kerry is skilled at holding two contradicting positions on issues.

[Ben.]

I think WV will go our way, I just do.  They coal miners are gonna vote this year, as Kerry is skilled at holding two contradicting positions on issues.

Hope so... at least we dont have Gore great stratergy on gun control ... but i take your piont i think we have a better shot at WV than in 2000...

[MN-Troy]

I don't trust this poll.

I agree


Check out this story on the Minnesota poll from Powerline Blog. 2nd article down from the top and read the links with in the article.

The Star Tribune does oversample the Democrats in Minnesota.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/

I agree that John Kerry is not by 12 pts here in Minnesota, but I would think he leading anywhere from 1 to 3 points (all with in the margin of error)

[ilikeverin]

this poll is whack

Personally I would expect Kerry to win MN by between 2-4%... largely thanks to no “La Duke” factor (Nader got 7%!)…

Woo!  First post back from my cruise!

Nader got 5.2% in MN.

I'm also going to ignore the "La Duke" factor thing, because I'm tired of telling people "No, that's wrong."

Also, Boss Tweed (AKA Miamiu), why do you think Bush will win MN?

[Fritz]

Kerry is going to win in this state, there is no doubt in my mind.  We Minnesotans haven't voted for A Republican since 1972.  And our Republican Senator and Governor had anomolies in their elections, as has been discussed.  Minnesota is in the bag for Kerry.

[they don't love you like i love you]

yeah seriously. Even in the other polls he's doing bad, while Kerry's lead isn't big, there are lots of undecides, and undecideds break 2:1 against the incumbent. An incumbent president polling 41%and 44% (the results in both polls) is very poor.

I've seen that previous Star Tribune polls have given the Democrat 8 more points than the election. But even that gives Kerry a solid 4 point lead. There is simply nothing pointing to Bush winning Minnesota, and no reason to make a blanket comment like "Bush will win Minnesota, end of story." especially from someone who doesn't live here.

but then again, he actually thinks Bush will win Washington state. Give me a break.

[klrbzzz]

I have some friends in the Minneapolis area, and they agree Bush has no chance in Minnesota.  They are not exactly crazy about Kerry, but their view of Bush is even more negative.  They say they can never understand why Minnesota is considered a "swing state" every 4 years.  

[© tweed]

Let me show you how much people "know" about how their home states will vote.

Texas Exit poll (done day of 3/9 TX Primary):

Will Kerry beat Bush in TX?

Very likely 43%
Somewhat Likely 35%

----

Mississippi Exit Poll (done day of 3/9 MS Primary):

Will Kerry beat Bush in MS?

Very Likely 47%
Somewhat Likely 32%

---

So as you can see, people are optimistic fruitcakes.  79% of MS Dems think Kerryy will win the state.

[they don't love you like i love you]

OK, but there is nothing pointing toward Bush winning Minnesota.

[klrbzzz]

I'm sure that Republicans in California and Rhode Island might think that Bush will win those states, but he won't even come close.  Some of the Democrats in TX in 1984 thought Mondale would win there.

[Ben.]

I'm sure that Republicans in California and Rhode Island might think that Bush will win those states, but he won't even come close.  Some of the Democrats in TX in 1984 thought Mondale would win there.

The Kids gota piont!

[MN-Troy]

 Minnesota is in the bag for Kerry.

Ok, then why has the Kerry campaign considered Minnesota a battleground state? If he has Minnesota "in the bag", why spend any money in this state?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Minnesota is in the bag for Kerry.

Ok, then why has the Kerry campaign considered Minnesota a battleground state? If he has Minnesota "in the bag", why spend any money in this state?

To make sure it doesn't slip out of the bag?

[© tweed]

this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….

Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks..

Change your signature.

[© tweed]

this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….

Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks..

Change your signature.

What don't you like...?

It takes up too much screen space.

[muon2]

Better...?

The map and legend are clear, but the Ayn Rand has definitely lost resolution.

[12th Doctor]

Could anyone tell me how to down size my map?

[© tweed]

Could anyone tell me how to down size my map?

There is a YaBB way to do it, but I just did it in-house and uploaded it.

[12th Doctor]

Could anyone tell me how to down size my map?

in your "signature go..

 

Thanks