Problem seems to be more in pundits' binary yes/no prognostication. Some say that his problems with the base will sink him and others that he'll be fine. Both seem so certain, with fewer than you would hope making intermediate predictions, in which his problems are a drag on his chances, but with him still having a greater than 0% chance of winning the nomination. The field is rather divided right now in any case, so even if you think his problems with the base will *probably* prevent him from being nominated, and that they keep his chances at the nomination at being down at ~15%, 15% would still make him one of the leading candidates. Heck, 10% would make him one of the leading candidates!
That sounds more like a problem with the litmus test Republican Party. As of late is seems like an all or none game. If you believe the base will have a significant problem with even one of Christie's policies, decisions, behavior then you have to immediately strike his name. It's an extreme situation. You can't expect a lot of intermediate answers.
