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Poll
Question: How will Texas Trend in the future?
#1
It will get much more Democratic with more Hispanics aging and showing up.
#2
It will stay the same; Whites will continue to get more republican and Hispanics will continue to stay at 70% D while making up more of the vote.
#3
It will stay the same because Hispanics will continue to not show up very well.
#4
It will get more republican as Hispanics in the future will vote like Whites.
#5
I have no clue
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Texas Trends  (Read 2672 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: June 22, 2013, 02:54:16 AM »

This is just predicting again, what do you guys think will happen to Texas in the next decade or so? Remember that if Texas is lost to republicans, the republicans are pretty much lost to the white house. I personally think it won't happen for a while, but it's interesting to see what people have to say about it. Feel free to express opinions/theories.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2013, 05:05:02 PM »

It will get more Democratic.

The reason Texas is firmly in Republican hand is that Hispanics have very very low turnout in Texas.

Democrats (at least in Texas) have foolishly waited, believing that demographic changes will put them back in power.

Now the Democrats have launched a full-time organization with the goal of turning Texas into a battleground state by doing voter registration drive.

Here is how it will happen. In 2018, the underdog Democratic nominee running for statewide office put up a really strong fight. He ultimately lost, but only by ~2%.

The Democratic base is energized and finally push Democrats to win statewide. Meanwhile, the presidential campaign caught political wind of change and Texas becomes prime battleground state.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2013, 11:09:19 PM »

I voted for option 1, but I think it goes a bit too far and I don't think there were enough choices.  If one choice was "it will get more democratic but still lean slightly Republican for a while" I probably would have chosen that.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2013, 04:56:54 AM »

I voted for option 1, but I think it goes a bit too far and I don't think there were enough choices.  If one choice was "it will get more democratic but still lean slightly Republican for a while" I probably would have chosen that.

Ok, too bad I can't edit polls, otherwise I would probably edit out option 2.
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2013, 10:36:02 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2013, 07:02:27 AM by DS0816 »

None of those options.



I suspect that imbecile governor Rick Perry can [do] with abortion to his party in 2010s Texas what Pete Wilson did with immigration to his party in 1990s California.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2013, 11:52:38 PM »

much more Democratic? I haven't seen any signs of that in the past 9 elections. Maybe the "much more Democratic" talking point is liberal wishful thinking.
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HansOslo
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2013, 05:43:49 AM »

much more Democratic? I haven't seen any signs of that in the past 9 elections. Maybe the "much more Democratic" talking point is liberal wishful thinking.

I think the Democrats have predicted Texas to return to the fold since the 1980s. It's always "just a few" election cycles away.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2013, 06:12:13 AM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.
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barfbag
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2013, 02:13:59 PM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

It's beyond what we should be thinking about in 2013. In 30 years, the politics of each party could change as well.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2013, 03:10:45 PM »

It will trend D as long as dems work to increase Hispanic turnout, particularly in the areas near the Mexican border, where some counties have turnout rates of less than 20 percent. However, I'm not sure it will be enough. If they work to make inroads with young suburbanites as well, though, the Texas GOP will be in trouble.

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Mechaman
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2013, 03:17:34 PM »

I have a gut feeling it will be more like Option 4.  From what I've heard, the Texas GOP isn't exactly a coalition of dunderheads who don't know how to win.  They can, and ultimaltely will, find a way to increase favorability amongst Hispanics.
Not sure if Texas will be like regularly over 60% Republican, but 55% or higher should be about the norm for elections.

Also, this observation:

much more Democratic? I haven't seen any signs of that in the past 9 elections. Maybe the "much more Democratic" talking point is liberal wishful thinking.

I think the Democrats have predicted Texas to return to the fold since the 1980s. It's always "just a few" election cycles away.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2013, 05:40:16 PM »

much more Democratic? I haven't seen any signs of that in the past 9 elections. Maybe the "much more Democratic" talking point is liberal wishful thinking.

Maybe it is, but states can trend hard, look at Arkansas 2004-2008.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2013, 05:43:26 PM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?
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Sol
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2013, 06:47:19 PM »

I'm no Demographic trends sceptic-  I've long predicted the demise of the GOP in GA- but I think that the folks thinking that TX is a future Democratic party zone are not quite right. I think that by the time Hispanics start voting a lot, they will have started voting like whites.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2013, 11:07:48 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2013, 11:09:45 PM by illegaloperation »

Hispanic do vote more Republican in Texas than in other states, so it might not be as competitive as demographics show.

In 2020s, in the presidential election Texas will be winnable for Democrat, but only if he or she is well into the 300+ EVs.

At the state level, statewide races will be very competitive for Democrats.

It will probably be a big Montana with Brian Schweitzer-equivalents running for governor, senators, and other statewide offices.
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barfbag
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2013, 11:26:03 PM »

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2013, 12:42:04 AM »

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Third actually because of New Mexico
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2013, 01:40:51 AM »

As a %, yeah. As a straight number, Texas is #2.

If you go by %, California and Texas are about even.

Oh OK, Yes you are right then.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2013, 04:24:23 AM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?

California? If anything, it's getting more and more democratic.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2013, 01:53:10 PM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?

California? If anything, it's getting more and more democratic.

I know that, but just take a guess
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2013, 02:20:03 PM »

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?

California? If anything, it's getting more and more democratic.

I know that, but just take a guess


It's certainly staying D for the next half-century. Later than that, predictions are impossible.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2013, 03:09:11 PM »

It will get more Democratic.

The reason Texas is firmly in Republican hand is that Hispanics have very very low turnout in Texas.

Democrats (at least in Texas) have foolishly waited, believing that demographic changes will put them back in power.

Now the Democrats have launched a full-time organization with the goal of turning Texas into a battleground state by doing voter registration drive.

Here is how it will happen. In 2018, the underdog Democratic nominee running for statewide office put up a really strong fight. He ultimately lost, but only by ~2%.

The Democratic base is energized and finally push Democrats to win statewide. Meanwhile, the presidential campaign caught political wind of change and Texas becomes prime battleground state.

This is probably what will happen, but probably not until the 2020s. TX Hispanic are both more Republican and less likely to vote than Hispanics elsewhere. The only way it will happen earlier is if the Republicans have a particularly brutal primary for a statewide office in 2014, 2016, or 2018, leaving them with an extreme, unpopular nominee with a bunch of far right positions who then Akins himself, leading to a Democratic victory. The other possibility is that Ted Cruz runs for reelection in 2018 and loses (he's basically what Glenn Beck would be if he were a U.S. Senator, so I wouldn't completely rule it out), though more likely Cruz's defeat in 2024 will be the moment that signifies Texas's transition from a deep red state to a purple state.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2013, 06:25:24 PM »

It will get more Democratic.

The reason Texas is firmly in Republican hand is that Hispanics have very very low turnout in Texas.

Democrats (at least in Texas) have foolishly waited, believing that demographic changes will put them back in power.

Now the Democrats have launched a full-time organization with the goal of turning Texas into a battleground state by doing voter registration drive.

Here is how it will happen. In 2018, the underdog Democratic nominee running for statewide office put up a really strong fight. He ultimately lost, but only by ~2%.

The Democratic base is energized and finally push Democrats to win statewide. Meanwhile, the presidential campaign caught political wind of change and Texas becomes prime battleground state.

This is probably what will happen, but probably not until the 2020s. TX Hispanic are both more Republican and less likely to vote than Hispanics elsewhere. The only way it will happen earlier is if the Republicans have a particularly brutal primary for a statewide office in 2014, 2016, or 2018, leaving them with an extreme, unpopular nominee with a bunch of far right positions who then Akins himself, leading to a Democratic victory. The other possibility is that Ted Cruz runs for reelection in 2018 and loses (he's basically what Glenn Beck would be if he were a U.S. Senator, so I wouldn't completely rule it out), though more likely Cruz's defeat in 2024 will be the moment that signifies Texas's transition from a deep red state to a purple state.

The reason I specifically single out 2018 is because of the assumption that Cruz will be running for reelection. He wins reelection, but the election is closer than anyone expects.

Also, I doubt that Texas will be winnable for the Democrats at the presidential level in 2020. Rather, a popular Democratic presidential incumbent decides to turn Texas into a battleground state. She loses the state, but provides just enough coattail for Democrat running for statewide office to win.
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barfbag
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2013, 09:11:18 PM »

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Yes, but a lot of conservatives are moving to Texas too.
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DS0816
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« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2013, 09:49:12 AM »

We're in a realigning period for Democrats to win the presidency?

If it turns out, like the ones from 1860-1892 (Republican), 1896-1928 (Republican), 1932-1964 (Democratic), and 1968-2004 (Republican), to be seven of nine or ten cycles for prevailing Democrats … it's doubtful that Texas would never once carry for the more dominant of the two major parties. And part of that has to do with the fact the Lone Star State is the No. 2-ranked state in population. One that is not immune to shifts.

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