MA US Senate Special Election: Official Election Day & Results Thread + Poll

[Tender Branson]

Results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/MA_US_Senate_0625.html?SITE=MABOH

You can post predictions here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174260.0

The candidates are:

Ed Markey (Democrat)



Gabriel Gomez (Republican)



Richard Heos (12 Visions Party)

[Tender Branson]

A final poll from Suffolk:

52% Markey
42% Gomez
  1% Heos
  1% refused
  4% Undecided

The bellwether areas of Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley all point to a big win for Markey as well. In Lowell, Markey leads 49 percent to 38 percent; in Dartmouth his lead is 52 percent to 37 percent; and in South Hadley the lead is 51 percent to 37 percent.

These communities -- Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley -- correctly predicted the statewide winner in the January 2010 special Senate election, and each was within 1 percentage point of the statewide vote cast for Scott Brown, Martha Coakley, and Joseph L. Kennedy, as follows:

Statewide: Brown 52 percent, Coakley 47 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
Lowell: Brown 52 percent, Coakley 47 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
Dartmouth: Brown 53 percent, Coakley 46 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
South Hadley: Brown 51 percent, Coakley 48 percent, Kennedy 1 percent

President’s approval ratings

President Barack Obama’s favorability ratings have shown a steady decrease from 67 percent favorable-29 percent unfavorable in May, to 60 percent favorable-35 percent unfavorable in early June to 53 percent favorable-43 percent unfavorable today.

His job performance numbers have fallen from 63 percent approve-32 percent disapprove in May to 57 percent approve-37 percent disapprove in early June to 47 percent approve-43 percent disapprove today.

Methodology

The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a tight screen to filter out voters who weren't certain to vote or who couldn't name when the special general election would be held. The field of 500 likely voters was conducted Wednesday, June 19, through Saturday, June 22. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

The bellwether survey used voter lists from each community with the same tight screen as the statewide poll. It was fielded Friday, June 21, through Sunday, June 23. The margin of error is +/- 5.65 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence for each area. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/17889.php#.UciP39hICKJ

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Guess:  Markey: 55%    Gomez: 44%

I think Gomez will get by carrying Worcester, Barnstable, and Plymouth counties, while just losing Essex and Norfolk counties. Markey will probably sweep through the rest. I'm interested in how good Markey will do in Suffolk County/Boston area.

Thanks for the results.
                                   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those are really low Obama numbers. I'm skeptical of them but the topline seems reasonable.

I'm predicting Markey anywhere between 54% and 59%. I'll be surprised but not shocked if he's slightly above or below that range. If he's far outside it in either direction I'll be shocked.

Markey is going to run up his margins in Middlesex, the West, and the Islands, in the case of Middlesex possibly even more so than other Democrats. He'll win Suffolk by a wide margin. He'll also win Bristol but could underperform a hypothetical Lynch run against Gomez there. I agree with ElectionsGuy that he's likelier than not to carry Essex and Norfolk, but I'd add that he might carry Barnstable too if he wins statewide by somewhere around the upper edge of the range I've given him here.

EDIT: I no longer think Markey will run up his margins in Middlesex because I've been reminded that Middlesex includes such areas as Billerica and Tewksbury. Regardless, he'll win it, and not by a particularly narrow margin.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Gomez (R).  But isn't the election tomorrow?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah nobody takes Suffolk seriously. Didn't they pull out of polling Florida halfway through October because they were so sure of a Romney win?

[JRP1994]

Yeah nobody takes Suffolk seriously. Didn't they pull out of polling Florida halfway through October because they were so sure of a Romney win?

To be fair, Romney WAS leading in Florida (if my memory serves me, by about 2% on average) in mid October. Though it was an irresponsible decision to pull out of polling the state.

[RogueBeaver]

HuffPo's awesome interactive map.

[JerryArkansas]

when do polls close? 7 or 8 east coast.

[Niemeyerite]

when do polls close? 7 or 8 east coast.

[PPT Spiral]

when do polls close? 7 or 8 east coast.

Should be at 8.

[Eraserhead]

This should be a pretty boring one.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Polls are now closed.  Time to watch and wait.

[Niemeyerite]

Gomez leading! It's the end of the World!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

53-46.6 Markey with 1% in

[Niemeyerite]

Markey has taken the lead. Viva el comunismo!

[JerryArkansas]

Now 51.3 to 48.3 Gomez

[Niemeyerite]

Noooooo, Gómez has taken the lead! Capitalism wins!

[JerryArkansas]

Right now Gomez best county is hampton.

[JerryArkansas]

Gomez   37,803   52.0%   
 Markey   34,577   47.6%

5% of precincts reporting

[JerryArkansas]

Gomez   59,187   52.1%   
 Markey   54,141   47.6%

8% of precincts reporting

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still predicting a comfortable Markey win.  Boston hasn't even reported, yet.

[RogueBeaver]

All the experts on Twitter- Blumenthal, Cohn, Kornacki, etc.- say Markey's doing fine. Question of margin.

[Eraserhead]

Nothing from Suffolk yet. Enjoy the Gomez lead while it lasts.

[JerryArkansas]

17% of precincts reporting

Gomez   117,186   52.4%   
Markey   105,710   47.2%