Is Virginia Gone to Republicans?

[ElectionsGuy]

With Mark Warner "likely" to be Senator-elect again in 2014, and if republicans lose this gubernatorial race this November, can they still prove that Virginia still has Republican DNA left for 2016? If Hillary runs, I have doubts. I think it might be a while until we see a republican victory in the old dominion (unless Ken Cuccinelli wins, in which he has a 50/50 chance), which is hard for me to say. Will the Old Dominion turn into the Democratic Dominion soon?

[Enderman]

Man, this is hard, I guess, if anything, Virginia will just be tossed around between the Republicans and Democrats... but hey, anything can happen!

[ElectionsGuy]

Man, this is hard, I guess, if anything, Virginia will just be tossed around between the Republicans and Democrats... but hey, anything can happen!

Yep

[Sol]

Somewhere between 1 and 2. Long term, the trend is clear and probably irreversible, but short-term, it'll stay swingy.

[Blue3]

It has a slight Democratic advantage now, and that advantage will grow with time, but for the next 10 years that advantage will stay slight and be surpassable.

[Mister Mets]

For the last two elections, Virginia has been the state that most closely matches the outcome of the national vote.

So I'm guessing it's a purple state under most circumstances. Of course if you think the popular vote will always favor Democrats, then it would be a de facto light blue state.

Kaine would probably do a few points better. That turns Virginia into a state as blue as Nevada or Wisconsin.

Warner would probably do a few points better than that. That turns Virginia as blue as Michigan or New Mexico.

[HansOslo]

Of course not. The Democrats have won Virginia in two Presidential elections since 1964; 2008 and 2012. It is far too early to tell if Virginia will become a blue state. That claim will be more plausible if the Republicans win in 2016, with the Democrats carrying Virginia.

[Cryptic]

It'll become more Democratic as time goes on, but it'll stay a swing state for awhile. 

[Del Tachi]

Continued growth in the D.C. suburbs will continue to add Democrats to the VA voter rolls.

The fact that under both the GOP's and President Obama's proposed budgets the federal government is spending almost 1 trillion dollars more in 2020 than they are in 2010 and that 15% of all federal money stays in the D.C. metro area does not bode well for VA Republicans. 

That's $150 billion more dollars for the D.C. metro area every year; money that will undoubtedly go to projects that will continue the increasing urbanization and liberalization of the D.C. suburbs as they attract more government professionals.

I expect the current trends to continue, and by 2020 VA will be a lean-dem state with a high GOP ceiling, similar to PA or MN.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as there no shift like it was in 2008 for the GOP to make youth like young Latinos and blacks to depress their turnout, their attitudes has fundamentally changed the landscape. No Va is not gone for the GOP but the GOP can't win with OH alone. NV,Co,NH equals its electoral votes and along with Va, it can certainly put Dems in White House.

[barfbag]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

Yeah, a lot of strategists actually predict Black vote will go down (%) as in turnout when Obama is done. By the way D.C. will always be >80% D no matter what, it has never voted for a republican, and probably never will so it's a lost cause. Ohio used to be the perfect bellwether state, now it's Virginia. Virginia has moved from light red to purple, while Ohio has been steady purple for a while, and even though Florida is seen as a complete swing state, I think it's a very light red as it votes more republican than the nation almost always.

[barfbag]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

Yeah, a lot of strategists actually predict Black vote will go down (%) as in turnout when Obama is done. By the way D.C. will always be >80% D no matter what, it has never voted for a republican, and probably never will so it's a lost cause. Ohio used to be the perfect bellwether state, now it's Virginia. Virginia has moved from light red to purple, while Ohio has been steady purple for a while, and even though Florida is seen as a complete swing state, I think it's a very light red as it votes more republican than the nation almost always.

I agree Florida is more like a purplish red. As for  D.C., I was referring to the D.C. suburbs that bleed into Virginia, not D.C. itself. Actually without Obama on the ticket, I think Nevada would be another perfect bellwether state but that's a different topic.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Not yet. People are acting like 2016 is the absolute last chance to get Virginia back, but I think that VA will stay as a purple state, possibly a purplish-(Atlas) red state as time goes by. I think, however by 2024 or 2028 Virginia will slip out of reach and fall into Minnesota/Michigan territory, and stay there.

[Space7]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

There's some merit in this argument, but Virginia has most certainly been heading left for quite a while now.

In 1988 it was an R+13 State, and it steadily trended Democratic to 2004, when it was R+9. At that point, it made a huge jump to +0, where it has stayed for the past 2 elections.

It might rubber band back a bit to, say, R+2 or something in the next few elections, but there is no particular reason to think that it will entirely reverse it's trend, especially when you consider that the Washington suburbs are continuing to grow at a rapid rate.

I expect in another 20 years of so it will become a semi-safe Democratic seat.

[ElectionsGuy]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

Yeah, a lot of strategists actually predict Black vote will go down (%) as in turnout when Obama is done. By the way D.C. will always be >80% D no matter what, it has never voted for a republican, and probably never will so it's a lost cause. Ohio used to be the perfect bellwether state, now it's Virginia. Virginia has moved from light red to purple, while Ohio has been steady purple for a while, and even though Florida is seen as a complete swing state, I think it's a very light red as it votes more republican than the nation almost always.

I agree Florida is more like a purplish red. As for  D.C., I was referring to the D.C. suburbs that bleed into Virginia, not D.C. itself. Actually without Obama on the ticket, I think Nevada would be another perfect bellwether state but that's a different topic.

Oh, Alexandria and Arlington are surprising, both are whiter than Fairfax County itself and yet more liberal. I would guess many are rich government workers. And yes turnout might go down in those areas, but I don't know, we'll see.

Nevada is an elastic state so it's pretty unpredictable, but in 2004 it was a pretty good bellwether.

[barfbag]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

There's some merit in this argument, but Virginia has most certainly been heading left for quite a while now.

In 1988 it was an R+13 State, and it steadily trended Democratic to 2004, when it was R+9. At that point, it made a huge jump to +0, where it has stayed for the past 2 elections.

It might rubber band back a bit to, say, R+2 or something in the next few elections, but there is no particular reason to think that it will entirely reverse it's trend, especially when you consider that the Washington suburbs are continuing to grow at a rapid rate.

I expect in another 20 years of so it will become a semi-safe Democratic seat.

Oh it won't change back to where it was and there has been a steady trend for a quarter of a century now. It's southern location should keep social issues on voters' priority lists though so I'm not sure how much more it will drift to the left. The growth of D.C. is a whole different can of worms to discuss but it has contributed to Virginia becoming a battleground state. I would put it in the barely GOP column right now amongst the categories of safe, solid, likely, lean, barely, and toss up.

[ag]

I would also pay attention to the new Silver Line that is about to open This is, certainly, not a bad news for the Dems.  A huge chunk of land is opening up for the settlement by the metro types This is bound to result in some medium-term reallocation of government workers from DC and Maryland towards Virginia.

Virginia is still very much competitive - but it is getting on that train.

[Non Swing Voter]

As someone who lives in the NOVA area.  I'd say it's a purple state that is getting bluer every year.  The problem Republicans will have in Virginia going forward is that while the vote totals are close, the number of swing voters in the state is very small.  Right now, on the Presidential level, 48% of the state is going to vote Democrat, 46% is going to vote Republican, and the remaining 6% is up for grabs.  By 2020, those numbers will probably shift to 50% Democrat, 44% Republican.

I have to think that the people in this thread talking about how Virginia is a lean-right state, the democratic growth is overrated, and that it will trend back to center are somewhat delusional.

There is no denying that NOVA growth is accelerating and continues to outpace the rest of the state.  I also suspect the growth will accelerate even more, largely because DC itself can hardly fit any more people to sustain the growth it is experiencing and a lot of people are moving into Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria.  Which I think is pushing a lot of Fairfax people to the outer burbs.  It's increasing the population of Fairfax, and it's making the outer burbs far more liberal. 

If Republicans couldn't win against a President who backed gay marriage in 2012, not sure why they think they will win in 2020.  The only argument I buy is that African American turnout will be lower.  The argument that Virginia voters are about average when compared to the national vote is not persuasive either.  The national vote is trending democrat as well.  Republicans have a problem, and it's not just in Virginia, but Virginia is a pretty strong example of their problem... it's diversifying, urbanizing, and becoming much better educated.  All factors that point to it becoming a blue state. 

[ElectionsGuy]

As someone who lives in the NOVA area.  I'd say it's a purple state that is getting bluer every year.  The problem Republicans will have in Virginia going forward is that while the vote totals are close, the number of swing voters in the state is very small.  Right now, on the Presidential level, 48% of the state is going to vote Democrat, 46% is going to vote Republican, and the remaining 6% is up for grabs.  By 2020, those numbers will probably shift to 50% Democrat, 44% Republican.

I have to think that the people in this thread talking about how Virginia is a lean-right state, the democratic growth is overrated, and that it will trend back to center are somewhat delusional.

There is no denying that NOVA growth is accelerating and continues to outpace the rest of the state.  I also suspect the growth will accelerate even more, largely because DC itself can hardly fit any more people to sustain the growth it is experiencing and a lot of people are moving into Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria.  Which I think is pushing a lot of Fairfax people to the outer burbs.  It's increasing the population of Fairfax, and it's making the outer burbs far more liberal. 

If Republicans couldn't win against a President who backed gay marriage in 2012, not sure why they think they will win in 2020.  The only argument I buy is that African American turnout will be lower.  The argument that Virginia voters are about average when compared to the national vote is not persuasive either.  The national vote is trending democrat as well.  Republicans have a problem, and it's not just in Virginia, but Virginia is a pretty strong example of their problem... it's diversifying, urbanizing, and becoming much better educated.  All factors that point to it becoming a blue state. 

I think this is part of the natural electoral movement of states throughout history. States getting more democratic and more republican, and Virginia is one of those states getting more Democratic. Remember that this is a democratic dominated era, democrats also had a huge problem in the 1980's, but in the 1990's they won big (besides '94). Republicans and Democrats have new appeals over time, and eventually this Democratic dominated era will change. I agree with you on the republican problem, it seems like everything is moving away from the GOP: More Urban, More Diverse, Less White, Less Religious, etc. It is frustrating for some conservatives, but with that said the GOP will eventually pick up it's feet in the future, it's just a matter of time.

[Gass3268]

Virginia is essentially becoming more and more like Maryland.

[Mister Mets]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

There's some merit in this argument, but Virginia has most certainly been heading left for quite a while now.

In 1988 it was an R+13 State, and it steadily trended Democratic to 2004, when it was R+9. At that point, it made a huge jump to +0, where it has stayed for the past 2 elections.

It might rubber band back a bit to, say, R+2 or something in the next few elections, but there is no particular reason to think that it will entirely reverse it's trend, especially when you consider that the Washington suburbs are continuing to grow at a rapid rate.

I expect in another 20 years of so it will become a semi-safe Democratic seat.

That's possible.

However, there is likely to be a point of diminishing returns for Democrats. And it's possible that point was just reached.

I compared Virginia's presidential vote to the nations.

In 2000, it was 8.54 % more conservative than the rest of the nation. In 2004, that number was down to 5.8%. In 2008, that number was down to 0.9%. 2012 had the smallest shift, as the number was down to 0.03%.

Virginia also has a higher percentage of African American voters, so it's likely that Obama overperformed relative to other potential Democratic candidates. And without him on the ballot, we may no longer have a situation in which African Americans have higher than average turnout. Which is likely to hurt Democrats a bit.

[sg0508]

A perfect example of the GOP's "demographic" problem.  In demographical years, this example is way back, but if you remember in 2005, Jerry Kilgore ran one of the WORST gubernatorial campaigns ever in that state; he ran as if he were running for Governor in 1985.  Then, he found out just how out of tune he was with the demographics when Kaine swamped him in DC and the suburbs.

[DS0816]

It's now a bellwether state in a realigning presidential period, beginning in 2008, for the Democrats.

[RedSLC]

At the presidential level, not quite yet, but since its D trend will likely continue, probably after about 3 to 4 cycles.

AT the state level, they could probably still win elections with the right candidates (but definitely NOT with E. W. Jackson-type candidates). However, I see the democrats becoming the dominant party by the mid 2020's to early 2030's.