BREAKING: DOMA UNCONSTITUTIONAL

I think this is an excellent decision handed down by the Supreme Court on the merits. It's only unfortunate that it didn't extend equal protection of marriage rights to same-sex couples in all 50 states. However, I don't entirely follow the Court's logic on the standing issue. It seems to me like the Court has allowed for a single House of Congress to stand in as defendant of a federal law, which would be a significant ruling in and of itself. Prior to this ruling, I'm not aware of any other stand-in for the Executive in terms of representing the United States in court.

Another thing I was thinking about was how this decision reconciles with the decision in the Prop 8 case. Contrary to oral arguments, Justice Kennedy seemed willing to take that case on the merits. I do wonder if the Court does actually have a majority for a 50-state ruling in support of marriage equality. To me, it seems like the Court intentionally left the broader ruling for a later date. Interestingly, Chief Justice Roberts hasn't really picked sides on the gay marriage issue. His only thoughts have been conveyed through the issue of standing. He did not sign on to Justice Scalia's sharper dissent. I think that might raise big questions on how he might rule on a less ambiguous case. I really don't think he wants his hand forced at this point.

Ultimately, I think this decision will lead to a 50-state ruling within the couple years. I'd expect a lawsuit to start fairly soon in a state that currently has a constitutional ban on gay marriage. That should probably make for a Supreme Court ruling in 2016 (2017 at the latest). And, by then, current law and public opinion will give such a ruling considerably more weight.

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