Interesting article on Vermont's voting patterns

[TDAS04]

http://www.davegentile.com/philosophy/Vermont.html

It discusses the way in which Vermont has always been opposed to the South ideologically, and has voted differently from Alabama in almost every presidential election.  I've long admired Vermont for being the nation's conscience regarding civil rights and personal liberty.

[ElectionLover]

Really interesting actually...

[TDAS04]

It is interesting how the polarization between Vermont and the Deep South intensified in both 2004 and 2008.  Vermont swung heavily toward Kerry in 2004.  Four years later, it swung sharply Democratic again.

The state seemed quite eager to vote for Obama.  First, Obama carried the every county in his 20% victory over Hillary Clinton in the primary.  Then Obama captured 67% of the state's vote in the general, and in 2012, he again received 67% in the same state that twice provided Lincoln with 76%.  There seems to be some symbolism about the ultimate Yankee state enthusiastically voting for the black candidate.  While Obama was crushed in the Deep South white vote, even by a larger margin than Kerry, Obama carried almost every Vermont town.  Even most old-stock Vermont farmers cast their ballot to elect a black POTUS, although some of them may have never even met a black person.

[ElectionsGuy]

Really interesting actually...

Are you my twin?

[DS0816]

http://www.davegentile.com/philosophy/Vermont.html

It discusses the way in which Vermont has always been opposed to the South ideologically, and has voted differently from Alabama in almost every presidential election.  I've long admired Vermont for being the nation's conscience regarding civil rights and personal liberty.

Add to Alabama the state of Mississippi. Those two first voted in 1820 and have disagreed just once—in 1840.

Compare Alabama and Mississippi to Vermont, and take notice that Ulysses Grant carried the trio in 1872 and, well, it wasn't until 1972 that another president—Richard Nixon—won the trio.

If I have it correct, ever since the Republicans and Democrats first matched in 1856, there have been five presidential elections in which this trio voted the same: 1872, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. (Add a sixth: James Monroe carried all three in 1820. But that wass before the current two-party system of Rs-vs.-Ds.) All were presidential victories in which more than 80 percent of available states were carried by a landsliding winner.

I typed this before reading the article. But I did take notice of this some time ago. And part of a conclusion one can make of this is: For U.S. residents posting here at Atlas Forum, ask oneself, "Does my home state tend to agree more, long term, with Alabama and Mississippi or Vermont?"

[eric82oslo]

Awesome article, I very much enjoyed it.

Taking into account certain good points in the article, one might expect the three most Democratic-leaning states in 2016 to be something like this:

1. Vermont
2. Massachusetts
3. Hawaii

(Obviously Washington D.C. will always top though.)

Rhode Island, New York, Maryland and California will fight it out for the fourth place. Or fifth if you include D.C.

[soniquemd21921]

Regardless of recent voting trends, I still find the idea that Vermont has always been a "progressive" state (in the modern sense of the word) to be a bit of a stretch.
I would describe the politics of pre-Sanders/Dean Vermont as right-of-center with a strong libertarian tinge.

For one thing, the strong level of support left-wing and center-left populist and labor presidential candidates received in the Farm Belt and Mountain states and urban centers of the Northeast and Midwest was almost nowhere to be found (outside of a few granite and quarry mining areas like Barre).

The Prohibition Party candidate ran ahead of Debs in 1912, LaFollette only receive 6% in the state (his second-worst state outside the South), in 1932 it wasn't one of Norman Thomas' top 20 states, nor was it one of Henry Wallace's top 20 best states in 1948. And, of course, it voted against FDR all four times, and progressive hero Adlai Stevenson failed to get more than 30% in both of his runs.

[SingingAnalyst]

Ironically, VT is one of only 3 states (the other 2 are DE and MS) that has never elected a woman to either the House or the Senate. VT did however elect the first woman governor, Madeline Kunin, in 1984.

[Sumner 1868]

Ironically, VT is one of only 3 states (the other 2 are DE and MS) that has never elected a woman to either the House or the Senate. VT did however elect the first woman governor, Madeline Kunin, in 1984.

The first woman governor was Ella Grasso.

[Sumner 1868]

Ironically, VT is one of only 3 states (the other 2 are DE and MS) that has never elected a woman to either the House or the Senate. VT did however elect the first woman governor, Madeline Kunin, in 1984.

The first woman governor was Ella Grasso.

Nellie Tayloe Ross  of Wyoming was the first woman governor.

I had assumed we were only counting elected ones. If not, then you are right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ironically, VT is one of only 3 states (the other 2 are DE and MS) that has never elected a woman to either the House or the Senate. VT did however elect the first woman governor, Madeline Kunin, in 1984.

Big deal, Vermont has only 6 Congressmen from the last 40 years.

[SingingAnalyst]

I don't see VT electing a Republican statewide in the foreseeable future. The last was Jeffords in 2000 who left the party a few months later. In 1994 a Republican almost unseated Bernie Sanders, winning 46% to Sanders 50%. It is difficult to imagine that today.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't see VT electing a Republican statewide in the foreseeable future. The last was Jeffords in 2000 who left the party a few months later. In 1994 a Republican almost unseated Bernie Sanders, winning 46% to Sanders 50%. It is difficult to imagine that today.

I could see VT electing a GOP governor in the following circumstances:
1. Shumlin has a disastrous next 4 years.
2. Clinton gets elected and a recession begins.
3. The GOP nominates Scott Milne. 

It would pretty much have to be in 2018, and someone like Milne or Phil Scott would have to run. Maybe Shumlin will retire by then.

[Sumner 1868]

I don't see VT electing a Republican statewide in the foreseeable future. The last was Jeffords in 2000 who left the party a few months later. In 1994 a Republican almost unseated Bernie Sanders, winning 46% to Sanders 50%. It is difficult to imagine that today.

I could see VT electing a GOP governor in the following circumstances:
1. Shumlin has a disastrous next 4 years.
2. Clinton gets elected and a recession begins.
3. The GOP nominates Scott Milne. 

Actually, Vermont governors are actually elected every two years. And since Scumlin has caved on health care, an ouster is quite likely.

[Podgy the Bear]

Even though New England has tilted heavily to the Democrats nationally (since 1992, the Republicans have won only once in 2000 in New Hampshire), many continue to call themselves independents or Republicans--and there are several Republicans remaining at statewide and local levels.  

I can see Vermont moving to the Republicans at the gubernatorial and state legislature level briefly but it would have to take a big swing nationally to do it.

[bobloblaw]

I don't see VT electing a Republican statewide in the foreseeable future. The last was Jeffords in 2000 who left the party a few months later. In 1994 a Republican almost unseated Bernie Sanders, winning 46% to Sanders 50%. It is difficult to imagine that today.

A GOPer could certainly get elected Governor.

[RFayette]

I don't see VT electing a Republican statewide in the foreseeable future. The last was Jeffords in 2000 who left the party a few months later. In 1994 a Republican almost unseated Bernie Sanders, winning 46% to Sanders 50%. It is difficult to imagine that today.

I could see VT electing a GOP governor in the following circumstances:
1. Shumlin has a disastrous next 4 years.
2. Clinton gets elected and a recession begins.
3. The GOP nominates Scott Milne. 

Actually, Vermont governors are actually elected every two years. And since Scumlin has caved on health care, an ouster is quite likely.

OK.  If whichever Dem replaces Schumlin in 2016 has a very bad 2 years, as does Clinton, then it's possible for Milne/Scott to eke out a win.

[H. Ross Peron]

One has to remember that Vermont has been demographically transformed by urban migrants from New York and elsewhere, of whom the most famous example is Senator Bernie Sanders himself:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/new-vermont-is-liberal-but-old-vermont-is-still-there/

In terms of anecdotal evidence, I came across a humourous book about Vermont once at the library used book store and it definitely had a conservative stance, making fun of the new migrants and contrasting them with the "real Vermonters". It also expressed the hope that than Mayor Bernie Sanders would not seek any sort of higher office.

[bobloblaw]

One has to remember that Vermont has been demographically transformed by urban migrants from New York and elsewhere, of whom the most famous example is Senator Bernie Sanders himself:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/new-vermont-is-liberal-but-old-vermont-is-still-there/

In terms of anecdotal evidence, I came across a humourous book about Vermont once at the library used book store and it definitely had a conservative stance, making fun of the new migrants and contrasting them with the "real Vermonters". It also expressed the hope that than Mayor Bernie Sanders would not seek any sort of higher office.

As a born and bred member of the Green Mountain State I agree wholeheartedly. VT was ruined by NYers and MAssholes

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It should be remember that the strain of Conservatism in VT was distinctly old right as opposed to new right. As far back as the Whigs it was an anti-war state. I don't think Clinton will do as well as Obama in the state and if the Republican is less hawkish, fiscally conservative and maybe has some green positions, Vermont could trend hard towards the GOP.

[Ebsy]

Comparing the quality of life both Vermont and the South, I would say that doing the opposite of whatever the South has been a resounding success for the people of the Great State of Vermont.

[solarstorm]

Comparing the quality of life both Vermont and the South, I would say that doing the opposite of whatever the South has been a resounding success for the people of the Great State of Vermont.

^^^^