Conservatives at crossroads on gay marriage

[Torie]

In other words, the GOP elite at least at the Federal level is throwing movement social conservatives on SSM under the bus, because it's bad for their business - and destined to get worse than bad over time.

I suspect this issue will just disappear from the public square in about 5 years time. It's over.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Sounds like from a cursory glance at the article that many in the Christian Right are losing their faith (pun intended) in the GOP political establishment to fight their moral battles. Yet many Republicans, particularly in the House but also at the state legislative level, are still pretty zealous on issues like abortion.

Not all morality issues are equal-gay marriage is inevitable, but I wouldn't count  the Religious Right out yet.

[opebo]

So... if gay-hating is off the platform, on what exactly will the GOP stand?  Just racism, xenophobia, and misogyny?  I guess its enough.

[DS0816]

In other words, the GOP elite at least at the Federal level is throwing movement social conservatives on [marriage equality]  under the bus, because it's bad for their business - and destined to get worse than bad over time.

I suspect this issue will just disappear from the public square in about 5 years time. It's over.

I agree.

[Likely Voter]

while there wont be any action in congress it will likely continue to be an issue in elections for House, Senate and even President. Candidates will be expected to take a stand in primaries and then take that stand to general elections.

[DS0816]

So... if gay-hating is off the platform, what exactly will the GOP stand?  Just racism, xenophobia, and misogyny?  I guess its enough.

Voter suppression!

Rick Perry and his Republican party wants to do for the 2010s Texas what Pete Wilson and his Republican party did for the 1990s California.

[TNF]

Gay marriage being legal doesn't threaten corporate profits, and being in opposition to legalization at this juncture actually does with the potential for widespread boycotts. It's a no-brainer as to why the Republican Party is moving to accept same-sex marriage - they're essentially being ordered to do so by their financial backers.

[memphis]

Republican voters (and especially self-described conservatives) continue to hate gays with all the soul and all their heart and all their might. The Republican politicians are indeed extremely annoyed. Their primary tool for getting workers to vote against their own interests no longer works in much of the country. Though it remains highly effective in other areas. But I have no doubt that they will continue to support oppression and indignity by whatever convenient means in the future. At the moment, it seems like we are returning to the ancient ballad of "States Rights." Why does that sound so darn familiar?

[opebo]

Republican voters (and especially self-described conservatives) continue to hate gays with all the soul and all their heart and all their might. The Republican politicians are indeed extremely annoyed. Their primary tool for getting workers to vote against their own interests no longer works in much of the country. Though it remains highly effective in other areas. But I have no doubt that they will continue to support oppression and indignity by whatever convenient means in the future. At the moment, it seems like we are returning to the ancient ballad of "States Rights." Why does that sound so darn familiar?

Really they can still focus on the hatred of blacks, foreigners, and freedwomen.

[memphis]

Totally over I fully expect a large majority of the House GOP to vote for this, just like last time.

http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/06/27/house-republican-to-introduce-constitutional-amendment-defining-marriage/

Torie has a bit of a battered wife syndrome with the GOP. Always swearing they've changed, that they're not as bad as they seem, and that they get him nice things. Maybe he prefers it to dying an old maid.

[bedstuy]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 

The best solution for the GOP is the nationwide acceptance of marriages either by forcing states to accept out of state marriages as valid or with a sweeping Anthony Kennedy opinion.  That will take the issue off the table and then they can continue to placate the religious right with more stealthy homophobia. 

[memphis]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The best solution for the GOP is the nationwide acceptance of marriages either by forcing states to accept out of state marriages as valid or with a sweeping Anthony Kennedy opinion.  That will take the issue off the table and then they can continue to placate the religious right with more stealthy homophobia. 

Because Roe v. Wade sure did take the abortion issue off the table once the Court had ruled, didn't it? In the short term, Kennedy's broad opinion in Windsor v. US is a strong benefit to those in favor of having the government treat same-sex marriage the same as an opposite-sex marriage, just as Kennedy's opinion ended the criminalization of same-sex marriage ten years ago in the Lawrence case.  However, while Lawrence didn't raise too many hackles because most places had already decriminalized sodomy, Windsor is running somewhat ahead of public opinion, as measured on a state-by-state basis, tho not nearly as far ahead as Roe did.  Still, in the long term, Kennedy going for such a broad opinion has pretty much guaranteed that SSM will still remain a political issue long after it has become legal in all 50 States.

[bedstuy]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Maybe that's true.  It's certainly a simplification to put any political party into two groups.  But, I really think education and geography are huge dividing lines on this issue.  Suburbanites and educated professionals are much more accepting of gay people than rural/small town and uneducated people.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Yep. Rich people in Democratic states lean Democratic. Rich people in swing states lean Republican. Rich people in Republican states are strongly Republican. The working class in every state is to the left of the rich-in that state or region, that is.

Here in California, religious right types tend to rural or exurban, but it you go to, say, inland Orange or San Diego County suburbs, you'll find some religious conservatives there. And they are often wealthy themselves.

I think a lot of people conflate poor regions of the country with most religious right types who do tend to live in those areas, but who in reality, tend to be more upscale relative to their regions or states. The most Repulicans and greatest concentration of white evangelicals in Alabama, for example, are not in the rural poor parts of the state but in the suburbs of Birmingham and other cities. This is especially true of the leaders and activists, who tend to be wealthier and better educated than the poor uneducated stereotype would lead you to think.

Maybe the confusion comes from the fact that liberals tend to come from areas where people ARE more liberal than average even in the upper middle and wealthy classes.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Republican voters (and especially self-described conservatives) continue to hate gays with all the soul and all their heart and all their might. The Republican politicians are indeed extremely annoyed. Their primary tool for getting workers to vote against their own interests no longer works in much of the country. Though it remains highly effective in other areas. But I have no doubt that they will continue to support oppression and indignity by whatever convenient means in the future. At the moment, it seems like we are returning to the ancient ballad of "States Rights." Why does that sound so darn familiar?

Maybe because Democrats used it to support Jim Crow.

[memphis]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Maybe that's true.  It's certainly a simplification to put any political party into two groups.  But, I really think education and geography are huge dividing lines on this issue.  Suburbanites and educated professionals are much more accepting of gay people than rural/small town and uneducated people.

I welcome you to visit Southern suburbia. I think you may find it shocking.

[Cory]

Republican voters (and especially self-described conservatives) continue to hate gays with all the soul and all their heart and all their might. The Republican politicians are indeed extremely annoyed. Their primary tool for getting workers to vote against their own interests no longer works in much of the country. Though it remains highly effective in other areas. But I have no doubt that they will continue to support oppression and indignity by whatever convenient means in the future. At the moment, it seems like we are returning to the ancient ballad of "States Rights." Why does that sound so darn familiar?

Maybe because Democrats used it to support Jim Crow.

Don't try to change the subject when you know good and well those people have since moved and now are the backbone of the Republican Party. You're being intellectually dishonest at best.

[Torie]

The best solution for the GOP is the nationwide acceptance of marriages either by forcing states to accept out of state marriages as valid or with a sweeping Anthony Kennedy opinion.  That will take the issue off the table and then they can continue to placate the religious right with more stealthy homophobia. 

Because Roe v. Wade sure did take the abortion issue off the table once the Court had ruled, didn't it? In the short term, Kennedy's broad opinion in Windsor v. US is a strong benefit to those in favor of having the government treat same-sex marriage the same as an opposite-sex marriage, just as Kennedy's opinion ended the criminalization of same-sex marriage ten years ago in the Lawrence case.  However, while Lawrence didn't raise too many hackles because most places had already decriminalized sodomy, Windsor is running somewhat ahead of public opinion, as measured on a state-by-state basis, tho not nearly as far ahead as Roe did.  Still, in the long term, Kennedy going for such a broad opinion has pretty much guaranteed that SSM will still remain a political issue long after it has become legal in all 50 States.

Abortion has an entirely different dynamic than SSM. Abortion is about life and death, and a priori assumptions about the fetus. That issue is not going to go away.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Maybe that's true.  It's certainly a simplification to put any political party into two groups.  But, I really think education and geography are huge dividing lines on this issue.  Suburbanites and educated professionals are much more accepting of gay people than rural/small town and uneducated people.

I welcome you to visit Southern suburbia. I think you may find it shocking.

You mean it's still ok to hate the gays in polite society in certain parts of the country? Say it ain't so!

[bedstuy]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform. 

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them. 
 

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Maybe that's true.  It's certainly a simplification to put any political party into two groups.  But, I really think education and geography are huge dividing lines on this issue.  Suburbanites and educated professionals are much more accepting of gay people than rural/small town and uneducated people.

I welcome you to visit Southern suburbia. I think you may find it shocking.

I suppose.  I'm an ivy-league educated, culture elite who lives in New York City.  Every Republican friend of mine works for Goldman Sachs or Sullivan & Cromwell.  So, yeah, I guess I'm not qualified to make those broad generalizations.   

But, my basic thesis is this.  I've never met an intelligent person that opposes gay marriage.  I guess the problem with that is that intelligent people are a vanishingly small voting block.   

[Torie]

Who here claims to have personally met educated upper middle class Pubs in the South who are homophobes? I question the assertion that they are that common. In any event, gay hating is not socially acceptable in "polite society" (if that means upper middle class educated society) anywhere at this juncture is what I suspect.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

The best solution for the GOP is the nationwide acceptance of marriages either by forcing states to accept out of state marriages as valid or with a sweeping Anthony Kennedy opinion.  That will take the issue off the table and then they can continue to placate the religious right with more stealthy homophobia. 

Because Roe v. Wade sure did take the abortion issue off the table once the Court had ruled, didn't it? In the short term, Kennedy's broad opinion in Windsor v. US is a strong benefit to those in favor of having the government treat same-sex marriage the same as an opposite-sex marriage, just as Kennedy's opinion ended the criminalization of same-sex marriage ten years ago in the Lawrence case.  However, while Lawrence didn't raise too many hackles because most places had already decriminalized sodomy, Windsor is running somewhat ahead of public opinion, as measured on a state-by-state basis, tho not nearly as far ahead as Roe did.  Still, in the long term, Kennedy going for such a broad opinion has pretty much guaranteed that SSM will still remain a political issue long after it has become legal in all 50 States.

Abortion has an entirely different dynamic than SSM. Abortion is about life and death, and a priori assumptions about the fetus. That issue is not going to go away.

This. Abortion and SSM are not really all that comparable in the long-term.

[memphis]

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place here.  The basic GOP coalition has always been the Mods and the Cons, the country club set and the mega church set.  This issue splits that coalition.  Christian fundamentalists will not support gay marriage anytime soon.  It's not a negotiable issue because it goes to religion, culture and sex which most people can't think about with any rationality.  In most states, these conservatives are the preponderance of the GOP so they are going to keep opposition to gay marriage in the GOP platform.  

On the other hand, the country club set is disposed to support gay rights.  The real housewives are on Bravo after all.  Really, almost anyone who qualifies as educated or elite supports gay marriage at this point, certainly among those under 50.  For this group, the GOP's anti-gay rhetoric and platform is going to gradually alienate them.  
  

This is a common analysis from people from in the NE and West Coast. Maybe it's true out there. In the GOP dominated states, there is little distinction between country clubbers and megachurchers. They're usually the same people.  And they've been lining up to vote against equality before the law since the Garden of Eden. Around here, lower class whites are much likely to go to church or to vote at all.

Maybe that's true.  It's certainly a simplification to put any political party into two groups.  But, I really think education and geography are huge dividing lines on this issue.  Suburbanites and educated professionals are much more accepting of gay people than rural/small town and uneducated people.

I welcome you to visit Southern suburbia. I think you may find it shocking.

You mean it's still ok to hate the gays in polite society in certain parts of the country? Say it ain't so!

Not just in certain regions of the country. Amongst wealthy, educated, suburban people, in particular. Take a look at who represents suburbia in Congress outside of the Northeast and West Coast. They're all foaming at the mouth loonies on the issue. By and large, wealthy people (their children, notwithstanding) know how to behave in public. That much is true. That doesn't really change the source of their opinions. This is in a very elite suburban area: http://www.germantownbaptist.org/

[Marokai Backbeat]

Gay marriage being legal doesn't threaten corporate profits, and being in opposition to legalization at this juncture actually does with the potential for widespread boycotts. It's a no-brainer as to why the Republican Party is moving to accept same-sex marriage - they're essentially being ordered to do so by their financial backers.

We have a winner.