New York City murder rate drops to record-low

[Tender Branson]

City Homicides Drop Sharply, Again; Police Cite New Antigang Strategy

By JOSEPH GOLDSTEIN
Published: June 28, 2013

The number of homicides on record in New York City has dropped significantly during the first half of the year — to 154 from 202 in the same period last year — surprising even police officials who have long been accustomed to trumpeting declining crime rates in the city.

In the first 178 days of 2013, the city averaged less than a murder a day, the first time the police can recall that happening for any sustained period. The latest numbers were recorded through Thursday.

Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly attributed much of the drop to a new antigang strategy meant to suppress retaliatory violence among neighborhood gangs. Police officials also credited their efforts at identifying and monitoring abusive husbands whose behavior seemed poised to turn lethal.

The recent decrease in violence is all the more striking because last year the department recorded the fewest homicides since it began a reliable method of compiling crime statistics half a century ago. The police recorded 419 murders in 2012.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/29/nyregion/city-homicides-drop-sharply-again-police-cite-new-antigang-strategy.html

[Tender Branson]

Just a few statistics for comparison:

Early 1990s: ca. 2500 murders in NYC every year, population: 7.5 million

2013: on track to 300 murders, population: 8.5 million

...

The murder rate (per 100.000 inhabitants) was 33 in the early 90s and will be 3.6 this year.

[Tender Branson]

NYC (and other US cities) still have a lot to do though to match rates in various Western European cities:

For example, London (a city with a similar population size as NYC) recorded 102 homicides in the past year.

And Berlin, which has slightly less than half the population of NYC and London, had 45 homicides.

So, in both cities the homicide rate is only 1/3 of New York's rate.

[Brittain33]

Unleaded gasoline.

[The Free North]

Im not a huge fan of Bloomberg, but he really has change this city for the better in terms of crime. There are parts of the city that, 10 years ago, you simply couldnt walk through, now, nearly every neighborhood is safe.

[jaichind]

Im not a huge fan of Bloomberg, but he really has change this city for the better in terms of crime. There are parts of the city that, 10 years ago, you simply couldnt walk through, now, nearly every neighborhood is safe.

Crime in NYC fell much faster under Giuliani than Bloomberg.  Of course one can always argue that Bloomberg was facing diminishing returns.  I am very negative on Dinkins but even I have to admit that he took over at the peak of crime in NYC and it did fall slightly under his reign.

[The Free North]

Im not a huge fan of Bloomberg, but he really has change this city for the better in terms of crime. There are parts of the city that, 10 years ago, you simply couldnt walk through, now, nearly every neighborhood is safe.

Crime in NYC fell much faster under Giuliani than Bloomberg.  Of course one can always argue that Bloomberg was facing diminishing returns.  I am very negative on Dinkins but even I have to admit that he took over at the peak of crime in NYC and it did fall slightly under his reign.

Giuliani deserves some credit as well obviously. Overall, im just very glad to see the city so much safer, not only for people who live in the tri state area like myself, but obviously for those living in the inner parts of the city. Reductions in crime like this really have a profound impact on so many communities.

Lets hope the trend continues with the next mayor

[opebo]

In other news, NYC is now so boring there is no reason to visit.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

In other news, NYC is now so boring there is no reason to visit.

Why?  You don't have to kill anyone to get drunk at the Mets game and then barhop Manhattan. 

[memphis]

In other news, NYC is now so boring there is no reason to visit.

If a high murder rate is your metric for good vacation spot, I welcome you to visit my hometown. We can certainly use the tourism money.

[Frodo]

In other news, NYC is now so boring there is no reason to visit.

If the murder rate were higher, would you feel more sufficiently entertained? 

[Silent Hunter]

In other news, NYC is now so boring there is no reason to visit.

If a high murder rate is your metric for good vacation spot, I welcome you to visit my hometown. We can certainly use the tourism money.

Cape Town is also good for that sort of thing.

[7,052,770]

Read Freakonomics if you want to know why.

[traininthedistance]

Read Freakonomics if you want to know why.

No, read Kevin Drum.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

[tpfkaw]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

Normally I'd say you must be joking but...

[Tender Branson]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

Normally I'd say you must be joking but...

In the 70s, the numbers were way higher than they are now:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

This is for NY state, but still.

[tpfkaw]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

Normally I'd say you must be joking but...

In the 70s, the numbers were way higher than they are now:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

This is for NY state, but still.

That was essentially my point.  New York City was nationally notorious for its extremely high crime rates under the Lindsey and Beame administrations.  I would not be surprised if the entire decline in NYS came from NYC.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

Normally I'd say you must be joking but...

In the 70s, the numbers were way higher than they are now:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

This is for NY state, but still.

Then the numbers must be cooked. Probably a propaganda effort to pump up Giuliani and Doomberg.

[Tender Branson]

No way is it lower than it was in the '70s - unless the numbers are cooked.

Normally I'd say you must be joking but...

In the 70s, the numbers were way higher than they are now:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

This is for NY state, but still.

Then the numbers must be cooked. Probably a propaganda effort to pump up Giuliani and Doomberg.

According to you, everything is cooked: poll numbers, crime statistics, reality ...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Guys, they've gone down most places.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The crime rate nationwide started dropping like a rock in 2009.

[traininthedistance]

The crime rate nationwide started dropping like a rock in 2009.

The crime rate nationwide started dropping in more like 1989.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The crime rate nationwide started dropping like a rock in 2009.

The crime rate nationwide started dropping in more like 1989.

Actually it went up through most of the 1990s and 2000s.

[Frodo]

The crime rate nationwide started dropping like a rock in 2009.

The crime rate nationwide started dropping in more like 1989.

Actually it went up through most of the 1990s and 2000s.

And you base this on what, exactly?  

To those of us living in the real world, both violent and property-related crimes have declined steeply since the early 1990s:





Both images and data are from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.