The Simple Truths Silver Mine

[memphis]

Lief and JR's pictures made me sick, but I can't say I'm surprised at all.

Also, IceSpear, was it really necessary to use the n-word in that post?

Thanks, but I don't need you to get offended for me. Have you heard of this thing called context?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Unexpected source:

The 2nd Amendment doesn't say anything about bearing arms for individual self-defense. It says the right to bear arms shall not be infringed because collective security relies upon a well-regulated militia.

We have no more well-regulated militias, and gun-owners rarely give a damn about collective security. The 2nd Amendment is dead. We're just arguing about how it's spirit should be honored.

[memphis]

No woman with basic sex ed and access to birth control wants 12 children.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Americans should be banned on commenting on the politics of other countries until they've past a test.

[courts]

I love it when Atlas posters have encounters with black people! They never know how to act, and the fear of saying the wrong thing both to the black people in the moment and to the internet white people about the experience afterward is the sort of awkward that has come to define comedy over the past few decades. I wish the real Update could have explored this more in the most recent call center. Some of you guys should visit Memphis. Our meteo has the highest percentage of the blacks of all American metros over 1 millon people. My town could use more comedy.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I'd also like to nominate every last one of our openly Zionist posters for the title too, given that, you know, Zionism is a form of racism.

[IceSpear]

Actually this isn't true, 47% want a less involved foreign policy and only 19% want more involved.

Most Americans want to be thin, too. That doesn't stop them from eating that pizza and chocolate cake.

[memphis]

I would love for Darren Wilson to be a cold-blooded killer who set out to kill someone. The PD could fire him, the courts could convict him, and we could all go home.

The real problem here is that he's not.

[Miles]

45 years ago a woman drowned at Chappaquiddick. The other big boozy, well, didn't.

You're not original, even within this thread.

[politicus]

I'd also like to nominate every last one of our openly Zionist posters for the title too, given that, you know, Zionism is a form of racism.

Jews are not a race, so Jewish ethnic nationalism is not racist. Modern Israel is one of the most racially diverse countries on earth with everything from blue eyed blond Russian Jews to black Ethiopian Jews and the most ardent Zionists today are descendants of Arabic Jews who looks just like other Arabs from their original countries (and share many elements of Arabic culture).
whatever the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is, its hardly a racial conflict.

[Velasco]

There's an element of discrimination, but it isn't racial. The problem is that if you write something like "ethnic-based discrimination" you might lead someone into error, because "ethnic" has a connotation of "origin" and "community" but also a connotation of "race".

[Flake]

Only posting this because of the source

Can someone explain to me what makes this scandal so devastating to Fitzgerald? I mean, I never thought he would win in the first place, but this always seemed like a whole bunch of nothing to me.

Well, a lot of voters, mainly women, are now turning against FitzGerald because they think and are appalled that Ed would cheat on his wife; even though those women have little evidence to show for it. That and licensegate, lack of judgment, lack of transparency, and still some sentiments about his choice of Eric Kearney. If you compare the last 2 OH-Dem PPP internals, Fitzy had a +1 lead among women in July, and now Kasich has the women vote by 7. It really should be nothing, but the ORP saw a golden opportunity to make FitzGerald's first major statewide ID known through an alleged affair which distracted everyone from the campaign itself.

Now onto something shocking you guys are about to hear from me. Not only the polls, but the personal experience of campaigning just tells me that we can't beat Kasich. There are Democratic women in my area who are saying they won't vote for FitzGerald now, but they won't cast a vote for Kasich, either. Basically, a + for Rios and higher dropoffs that would have otherwise went to Fitzy. It's at least relieving from the aspect that they're willing to care about their own self-interests and still reject Kasich considering a vote for Kasich is a vote for de-funding Planned Parenthood, shutting down abortion clinics, and a 6-week abortion ban to come. The state Democratic Party is giving up on FitzGerald and even FitzGerald's giving up on FitzGerald. He's been giving a lot of his campaign contributions to a voter turnout initiative for more young and minority voters to turnout to vote this November; thus helping down-ballot. I'm still going to campaign for FitzGerald and I'm optimistic that he'll return to run for an office in 2018, but for now, this is not winnable. On the plus side, this means we're favored to control redistricting in 2021 seeing as how another term of Kasich and Ohio GOP control will not go well for their approval numbers in the long run.

We're slightly favored in Treasurer though and we also have a pretty good chance at knocking off Husted. Mandel and Husted are incredibly unpopular and to Husted's dismay, this race has become one of the most nationalized races in Ohio this year with tons of negative publicity for Husted over the state's modern-day Jim Crow laws. If he survives, it will only be b/c Husted has a large cash advantage and Turner is too polarizing of a politician to win statewide in a midterm, but it will be very, very close.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That post made me quite sad

[Antonio the Sixth]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

Election forecasting and predictions is what made Mr. Silver famous--whether or not he realizes it, that is what his appeal is built upon. Instead, he's traveling the country to find America's Best Burrito.

[Paul Kemp]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

Election forecasting and predictions is what made Mr. Silver famous--whether or not he realizes it, that is what his appeal is built upon. Instead, he's traveling the country to find America's Best Burrito.

Maybe that's what he actually wants to do though?

[traininthedistance]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

Election forecasting and predictions is what made Mr. Silver famous--whether or not he realizes it, that is what his appeal is built upon. Instead, he's traveling the country to find America's Best Burrito.

Maybe that's what he actually wants to do though?

Also keep in mind that Silver was pretty well-known for his fantasy baseball work well before he jumped into elections- a jump that, by his own admission, was more because the competing work was so shoddy and easy-to-best rather than because of any passion for electoral politics per se.

[SWE]

I tend to agree, Del.  The GOP is clearly favored in LA, GA, and AR, although I concede that any one of those could go Democratic.  And IA, CO, NC, and AK are all pretty close to 50/50--and the GOP only needs one.  It isn't over yet, but it would really take something extraordinary for Democrats to sweep the field and keep their majority.

My hunch is actually that it really could be a stunningly good night for the GOP.  Instead of two years ago when we were all marveling at how well Obama did in places like Florida and Virginia, I suspect that we'll be talking about the GOP doing exceptionally well in places that a lot of people thought they'd lose.

Only Republican hacks were marveling at how well Obama did in Virginia. It was obvious he was going to win there.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In light of their comments just within this thread, TNF and Snowstalker seem like obvious candidates, though Snow obviously is just trolling.

lol

If you're going to define "zionism" so broadly as to include any practice of Judaism and then say"zionism" is automatically racism, that's anti-Semitic. 

[Joe Republic]

Questions probably don't count as 'truths', but it's a rhetorical one, so I say it counts:

I wish people would dress in suits and hats regularly again, so guess.

Why is everyone on this site so weird?

[Paul Kemp]

I don't think we should allow mods to create nonsensical threads on line-item veto.

[memphis]

We have enough crazy religious nuts in America that you can go observe.

[Хahar 🤔]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

Election forecasting and predictions is what made Mr. Silver famous--whether or not he realizes it, that is what his appeal is built upon. Instead, he's traveling the country to find America's Best Burrito.

I knew about Nate Silver before he did anything related to politics, and I'm not even the only person on the forum who did.

[TDAS04]

No surprise.

This doesn't shock me one bit. Many church leaders are messed up sexually, and they're still trying to use the junkest of junk science in order to cover up their sick actions.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ugh.  Ernest may not be quite as malevolent as Todd Akin, but he sure as hell doesn't know when to just stop talking about rape.

[TDAS04]

Agree (critical).  

It's critical because we have people sitting in a jail cell with their lives ruined for smoking pot.  There are few other things to do in the United States where the consequence is so outrageous when compared to the action.