MT-Sen: Daines raises $415k

[RogueBeaver]

Up from 250 last quarter, as he "seriously considers" a run.

[windjammer]

So if he runs, it will an epic battle!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Well he wouldn't really have a record to run on. Schweitzer does. I think the Governor will be able to paint him as a lightweight and win this with a bit of effort.

[free my dawg]

Oy.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

After Rick Berg, I am unsure of first term Representatives running for Senate.

What is Daines like? Is he a better candidate quality wise?

[publicunofficial]

My guess is he will run if Schweitzer doesn't, but will stay out if he does. He's raising money just in case.

[free my dawg]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Daines staying out, still. He's already a regional head for the Central West region in the NRCC, so clearly he's already making moves up the ladder in the house.

[RedSLC]

After Rick Berg, I am unsure of first term Representatives running for Senate.

What is Daines like? Is he a better candidate quality wise?

I'm not really sure of this, but one reason I thought of was that Berg could have been seen as inexperienced. He had only just won his first statewide election two years earlier, wheras Heitkamp had 14 years of statewide experience as State Tax Commissioner and State Attorney General.

If this had a part, then this could also apply to Daines, but I'm still not sure about that being the case.

[free my dawg]

After Rick Berg, I am unsure of first term Representatives running for Senate.

What is Daines like? Is he a better candidate quality wise?

I'm not really sure of this, but one reason I thought of was that Berg could have been seen as inexperienced. He had only just won his first statewide election two years earlier, wheras Heitkamp had 14 years of statewide experience as State Tax Commissioner and State Attorney General.

If this had a part, then this could also apply to Daines, but I'm still not sure about that being the case.

He's even less experienced than Berg is. Berg had about thirty years in the North Dakota House of Representatives, but Daines has no prior political experience besides a run for LtGov in 2008.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell's SuperPAC donated $10k to Daines last month, Thune's $2500. Their PACs almost exclusively donate to incumbent Senators, NRSC or announced Senate candidates.

[windjammer]

So, Daines is probably in?

[free my dawg]

So, Daines is probably in?

Signs point to yes. Here's to hoping Schweitzer can hold on.

[RogueBeaver]

Probably. He probably personally (so as not to leak) gave them private assurances, it would be incredibly embarrassing for everyone otherwise. He's also doing a fundraiser with Portman, yet another signal of intent.

[free my dawg]

Yeah. To be completely honest I thought he was raising so much because he's a regional director for the NRCC and has two hard races to run, but McConnell/Thune/Portman lead me to believe he's in for the long haul.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Rehberg 2.0

[Maxwell]

I think this Montana Senate race is lean Schweitzer. I find it hard to believe that Daines or even Racicot is close or leading. Schweitzer is very popular but he is also very Montana, something Daines and Racicot seem to lack. With Daines you might as well just run "Generic Republican". It seems clear Republicans are not quite learning from the North Dakota fiasco.

[bballrox4717]

I think this Montana Senate race is lean Schweitzer. I find it hard to believe that Daines or even Racicot is close or leading. Schweitzer is very popular but he is also very Montana, something Daines and Racicot seem to lack. With Daines you might as well just run "Generic Republican". It seems clear Republicans are not quite learning from the North Dakota fiasco.

I want to believe this, but it's so much harder to win a national race than a statewide race, especially when the MT seat might decide the Senate.

What aren't they learning? There isn't a better candidate than Daines, no?

[free my dawg]

I think this Montana Senate race is lean Schweitzer. I find it hard to believe that Daines or even Racicot is close or leading. Schweitzer is very popular but he is also very Montana, something Daines and Racicot seem to lack. With Daines you might as well just run "Generic Republican". It seems clear Republicans are not quite learning from the North Dakota fiasco.

I want to believe this, but it's so much harder to win a national race than a statewide race, especially when the MT seat might decide the Senate.

What aren't they learning? There isn't a better candidate than Daines, no?

Racicot would be the best candidate, but he has the Palin problem. That is, he basically left the state high and dry once he got national prominence. Stapleton strikes me as too conservative, and Edmunds is crazy. That pretty much leaves Daines as the best candidate.

[Maxwell]

I think this Montana Senate race is lean Schweitzer. I find it hard to believe that Daines or even Racicot is close or leading. Schweitzer is very popular but he is also very Montana, something Daines and Racicot seem to lack. With Daines you might as well just run "Generic Republican". It seems clear Republicans are not quite learning from the North Dakota fiasco.

I want to believe this, but it's so much harder to win a national race than a statewide race, especially when the MT seat might decide the Senate.

What aren't they learning? There isn't a better candidate than Daines, no?

They have to learn that dull, corporate suits aren't going to work in states like Montana or North Dakota. They have to go for candidates with a more unique appeal, perhaps a Huckabee type or a Paul-ish type. Something more interesting than establishment suit, because clearly they will not get the job done in those states.

[windjammer]

It will be difficult for Cotton and Daines to win. On the 100 senators, 0 was elected  after 2 years in the house.

[RogueBeaver]

Daines would be an underdog against Schweitzer. If one runs and the other doesn't, seat at least leans that party's way IMO.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It will be difficult for Cotton and Daines to win. On the 100 senators, 0 was elected  after 2 years in the house.

Sam Brownback was the last to do it successfully.

[RogueBeaver]

It will be difficult for Cotton and Daines to win. On the 100 senators, 0 was elected  after 2 years in the house.

Sam Brownback was the last to do it successfully.

And in Montana, no Governor has been elected to the Senate since the 17th Amendment's adoption. Schweitzer will be the first. These dry spells last till they're broken.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It will be difficult for Cotton and Daines to win. On the 100 senators, 0 was elected  after 2 years in the house.

Sam Brownback was the last to do it successfully.

And in Montana, no Governor has been elected to the Senate since the 17th Amendment's adoption. Schweitzer will be the first. These dry spells last till they're broken.

No Class III Senator was reelected in NC after 1968, until 2010. Indeed.

[windjammer]

So you're right, forget what I've said!