North Carolina and Republicans' push to the extreme right

[Sol]

What happened in Asheville and Charlotte?

The state took control of Charlotte's airport and Asheville's  water system away from them.

[barfbag]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

It's not as bad as Democrats think it is or want it to be though. It never is. Human nature makes us biased. Obama being black helped him enormously in North Carolina which makes its trends deceiving. By 2020 we should be able to tell how much he helped the trend or how much he skewed the trend. Right now we're only wishfully thinking. Trends don't go on forever. It's not  like the state will ever actually belong to the Democrats.

Really? I don't think a lot of Republicans who are unemployed and sees their benefits cut feel the same way.

North Carolina has the 5th highest unemployment rate and trust me, it's not because people there just don't want jobs.

Also, I know that North Carolina is moving to the left because Charlotte and the Research Triangle are the fastest growing areas just like I know that Missouri is moving to the right because Southwestern Missouri is the fast growing area there.

So unless Republicans can start winning urban and secular voters, North Carolina is moving to the left.

Additional note: stealing the water system and regional airport from Asheville and stealing the international airport from Charlotte can already mobilize a lot of voters.

I don't know about the airports. People who are unemployed vote against the party in the white house. They don't just blame Republicans like the parties blame each other.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know about the airports. People who are unemployed vote against the party in the white house. They don't just blame Republicans like the parties blame each other.

North Carolina is a manufacturing-heavy state that is more sensitive to economic swings and that such traditional industries as textiles, tobacco and furniture have been devastated by foreign competition. This is why the unemployment rate is so high.

I do agree that the people of North Carolina did voted against the president's party for the reason you have just stated.

What is happening now, though, is that once the NC GOP has taken over, it has push a lot of extremely unpopular measures (the prime example is to cut unemployment benefit). This is what will cause the people to swing the other way (to the NC Democrat).

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[barfbag]

I don't know about the airports. People who are unemployed vote against the party in the white house. They don't just blame Republicans like the parties blame each other.

North Carolina is a manufacturing-heavy state that is more sensitive to economic swings and that such traditional industries as textiles, tobacco and furniture have been devastated by foreign competition. This is why the unemployment rate is so high.

I do agree that the people of North Carolina did voted against the president's party for the reason you have just stated.

What is happening now, though, is that once the NC GOP has taken over, it has push a lot of extremely unpopular measures (the prime example is to cut unemployment benefit). This is what will cause the people to swing the other way (to the NC Democrat).

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It's possible, but it will probably depend on what the map looks like. For the Democrats to win NC they'd have to win the election even under these circumstances. It may not be overly conservative though if the Republicans win. Having an unpopular state government will hurt Republicans in 2014 most likely but by 2016 things could be different.

[illegaloperation]

It's possible, but it will probably depend on what the map looks like. For the Democrats to win NC they'd have to win the election even under these circumstances. It may not be overly conservative though if the Republicans win. Having an unpopular state government will hurt Republicans in 2014 most likely but by 2016 things could be different.

McCrory is going to be on the ballot in 2016 (assuming that he runs for reelection). I am sure there are going to be plenty of people who are itching to throw him out.

The are going to be a lot of people who split ticket (vote for Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Republican presidential candidate), but I also suspect that a lot of people who felt burn may vote against both McCrory and the Republican presidential candidate.

[barfbag]

It's possible, but it will probably depend on what the map looks like. For the Democrats to win NC they'd have to win the election even under these circumstances. It may not be overly conservative though if the Republicans win. Having an unpopular state government will hurt Republicans in 2014 most likely but by 2016 things could be different.

McCrory is going to be on the ballot in 2016 (assuming that he runs for reelection). I am sure there are going to be plenty of people who are itching to throw him out.

The are going to be a lot of people who split ticket (vote for Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Republican presidential candidate), but I also suspect that a lot of people who felt burn may vote against both McCrory and the Republican presidential candidate.

I don't follow NC politics, but I'd think it would have to be really bad for that to happen. Usually it's the Presidential Election that effects the candidates from the respective parties. Assuming the Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party, the GOP candidates will likely be helped as well. We'll have to wait and see though. It should be interesting to see what happens in NC and other battleground states like FL, OH, PA, CO, and NV after the 2014 midterm elections. I know NC votes in presidential years.

[illegaloperation]

I don't follow NC politics, but I'd think it would have to be really bad for that to happen. Usually it's the Presidential Election that effects the candidates from the respective parties. Assuming the Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party, the GOP candidates will likely be helped as well. We'll have to wait and see though. It should be interesting to see what happens in NC and other battleground states like FL, OH, PA, CO, and NV after the 2014 midterm elections. I know NC votes in presidential years.

There is a protest every Monday in Raleigh. 3000+ people (by conservative estimate) attended the last protest, so yes, it is really that bad.

Also, you can never assume that "Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party".

[Non Swing Voter]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

You're not worried at all about the blatant gerrymandering or disenfranchisement attempts? 

Yes, your point is probably correct.  That's exactly why Republicans won't win Virginia in a Presidential election for at least 20 years.  They pushed extreme measures over the past few years just as the state started becoming more moderate and diverse.  I suspect North Carolina will follow a similar pattern.

That is assuming the Democrats nominate someone like Obama, the GOP nominates someone like Romney and the political climate and the political coalitions will remain the same the next 20 years. So your statement is based on a lot of assumptions that are uncertain, at best. If 2016 (or 2020) is a bad year for the Democrats, and the GOP nominates a decent candidate, the Republicans will probably win Virginia.

Absurd comment.  A generic democrat would have beaten a generic republican in Virginia.  In fact, right before the election there was a lot of talk by right wing pundits about how weak Obama was. 

Your reply was inapposite.  I did not make assumptions, nor did I even discuss Obama/Romney in the post you quoted.  You seem to assume I am basing this off 2012.  OK - well that wasn't a particularly good year for Democrats and Obama still won Virginia.  The fact is that Virginia has been trending Democrat for the past 20 years, regardless of Obama being on the ballot.  Yes, it's possible that if stars align that Republicans will win Virginia.  But in the next few cycles, given the population trends, that would probably mean Republicans are winning handily. 

I posted census projections and articles about the demographic changes in Virginia in another thread.  Basically, by 2016, Northern Virginia, suburban Richmond, and the Virginia Beach area will account for something like 90% of the population growth in the state.  Obama won all three regions.  Northern Virginia will account for over 50% of the statewide population growth, Obama won that region 60/40.  Conversely, some regions of the state are losing population, mostly they are small towns concentrated in the southwestern portion of the state.  Republicans tend to win that region 70/30. 

Clearly Republicans have a long term problem in Virginia that is getting worse every year.

By all means, if things continue the way they are now, the GOP will have a tough time winning Virginia in a neutral political environment. I am not arguing about that. However, political coalitions tend to change. And when a party has been defeated enough time, they usually change course somehow. By the late 1980s the Democrats knew they a lot of voters viewed them as the party of big government, abortion and welfare queens. So they nominated Michael Dukakis (who really wasn’t the “Massachusetts Liberal” as he was portrayed by the Bush campaign. He was a moderate.). Then they nominated Bill Clinton, and the rest is history.

The same thing goes for the Republicans of today. Some sort of change will occur if they lose enough times. And that was the core of my critique of your post, because it looks like you assume that the trends of today will continue indefinitely.  Suburban moderates in Northern Virginia will keep voting for the Democrats, because the Republicans are too extreme on social issues. That is probably the case today, but it might very well not be in 2024.

And that is before we take into account frictions within the Democratic coalition. There might be important issues where suburban liberals are at odds with Africa Americans, or where the interests of the public sector unions clash with those of working class Hispanics. And whenever that happens, the opposing party is usually ready to accommodate the people that are disillusioned by the other party.

American political history is full of false realignments, coalitions that never became permanent and trends that ceased. In 1988 a lot of people believed the GOP had a “lock” on the Electoral College, because of their strength in the Sunbelt states, and that the Democrats had a “lock” on Congress. It took 6 years for that to change. And in the beginning of the 1920s people knew that African Americans would continue voting for the GOP, and that the South would forever be the Solid Democratic South. By 1928 the Republicans were able to win several states in the South, and African Americans became an important part of the Democratic coalition under Roosevelt a few years later. So the GOP might turn into a permanent minority, unable to win places like Virginia and North Carolina (and eventually Georgia and Arizona), but I think that is unlikely. 

That's fair.  However, The GOP has lost 5 of the last 6 Presidential elections in terms of the popular vote, most by fairly large electoral/popular vote margins... and they are now further to the right than they were 20 years ago.  So it seems very unlikely that they will change course by 2024.  In fact, the trend lines indicate they'll probably be more extreme by then.  They lost the senate in 2012 because of extreme candidates and now they've nominated Cuccinelli and some even more extreme people in Virginia.  Rather than admitting they are losing badly, their main arguments are: voter fraud, the polls are skewed, and that not enough whites voted in the last election.  They clearly have not learned anything and I doubt they will anytime soon.

[opebo]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

[Person Man]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

I wonder how far an armed insurrection would get. I mean, you might have the support of a fair majority of the military but who would support you internationally? How many soldiers would actually defect and if you are lucky every step of the way and  the Government starts to lose and gets desperate, what do you think they would do with 5000 kiloton and megaton warheads when that becomes their sole deterrent against your rebellion? 

This is what I think of when I think of "the other side"...and this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpQkJ2T7zrc

[barfbag]

I don't follow NC politics, but I'd think it would have to be really bad for that to happen. Usually it's the Presidential Election that effects the candidates from the respective parties. Assuming the Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party, the GOP candidates will likely be helped as well. We'll have to wait and see though. It should be interesting to see what happens in NC and other battleground states like FL, OH, PA, CO, and NV after the 2014 midterm elections. I know NC votes in presidential years.

There is a protest every Monday in Raleigh. 3000+ people (by conservative estimate) attended the last protest, so yes, it is really that bad.

Also, you can never assume that "Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party".

I never assume. No one should assume the Democrats would keep the white house after 8 years of being there. There's a very strong chance the Republicans will win it though. No one is pay

[tpfkaw]

Hmm, remember OMG ROMNEY GOT 25,000 PEOPLE AT HIS RALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE HE'S SURELY GOING TO WIN?

[barfbag]

No one is paying attention yet and like Bush before him, Obama's popularity is declining. They're at about the same approval rating at this point in their presidency. 2016 can easily be a referendum on Obama.

[barfbag]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

Our founding fathers started an armed insurrection and they accomplished great things. It is our duty to do the same if the government gets out of hand.

[barfbag]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

I wonder how far an armed insurrection would get. I mean, you might have the support of a fair majority of the military but who would support you internationally? How many soldiers would actually defect and if you are lucky every step of the way and  the Government starts to lose and gets desperate, what do you think they would do with 5000 kiloton and megaton warheads when that becomes their sole deterrent against your rebellion? 

This is what I think of when I think of "the other side"...and this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpQkJ2T7zrc

So the left would use warheads on conservative insurgents but not terrorists in Ben-Ghazi. I guess Obama's logic has worked its way on people. "If they bring a knife we bring a gun."

[illegaloperation]

Anyway, let us get back on topic.

The NC Republicans are just social conservatives. There is nothing small government about them.

This is what I mean:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/04/20/2839185/christensen-column-big-government.html

[Beet]

The Democrats actually won the state legislative popular vote in 2012; the Republicans have an out-sized majority due to gerrymandering.

[barfbag]

The Democrats actually won the state legislative popular vote in 2012; the Republicans have an out-sized majority due to gerrymandering.

Gerrymandering can have a reverse effect if the party gets out of hand. It's also part of politics though and to some degree I like it.

[tpfkaw]

The Democrats actually won the state legislative popular vote in 2012; the Republicans have an out-sized majority due to gerrymandering.

The NCGOP let a few dozen Dems in safe districts (that they created, admittedly) run without opposition, so that's not really meaningful.

[illegaloperation]

I am not sure that changes anything, but I know one person in NC who is a staunch conservative.

He said that he is going to vote for Democrats in the next election.

[Person Man]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

I wonder how far an armed insurrection would get. I mean, you might have the support of a fair majority of the military but who would support you internationally? How many soldiers would actually defect and if you are lucky every step of the way and  the Government starts to lose and gets desperate, what do you think they would do with 5000 kiloton and megaton warheads when that becomes their sole deterrent against your rebellion? 

This is what I think of when I think of "the other side"...and this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpQkJ2T7zrc

So the left would use warheads on conservative insurgents but not terrorists in Ben-Ghazi. I guess Obama's logic has worked its way on people. "If they bring a knife we bring a gun."

A conservative "dicatorship" would do the same against  theoretical left-wing insurgents.

[barfbag]

I just had dinner with three elderly (55,58,72) Republicans - expats here, all from Illinois of all places - and it was an eye opener.  I hadn't met people like that in a long time, and they seriously support not only the kind of policies being implemented now in NC, but even 'armed insurrection' (not really, just bluster in their beer, the poor old nincompoops).  Very typical older white voters I guess, but seeing them in the flesh reminded me where the other side is coming from:  for certain they hadn't a rational idea in their heads, it was all just pure racism and outraged privilege.

I wonder how far an armed insurrection would get. I mean, you might have the support of a fair majority of the military but who would support you internationally? How many soldiers would actually defect and if you are lucky every step of the way and  the Government starts to lose and gets desperate, what do you think they would do with 5000 kiloton and megaton warheads when that becomes their sole deterrent against your rebellion? 

This is what I think of when I think of "the other side"...and this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpQkJ2T7zrc

So the left would use warheads on conservative insurgents but not terrorists in Ben-Ghazi. I guess Obama's logic has worked its way on people. "If they bring a knife we bring a gun."

A conservative "dicatorship" would do the same against  theoretical left-wing insurgents.

No one is being a dictator. Dictators do exist in places like Cuba and Venezuela.

[cheesepizza]

Lower taxes, smaller government, and more economic freedom =/= "the extreme right".

[barfbag]

Lower taxes, smaller government, and more economic freedom =/= "the extreme right".

It's the way it should be. In Maryland are you kind of outnumbered? I have friends in your state through my best friend and they're all die hard Republicans and very socially conservative. It's funny how that works out. Actually, I've found that outside of the Washington D.C. and Baltimore areas, Maryland is fairly moderate.

[illegaloperation]

Lower taxes, smaller government, and more economic freedom =/= "the extreme right".

There's nothing small government about the NC Republicans. They are just social conservatives.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/04/20/2839185/christensen-column-big-government.html