TX-PPP: Cruz far ahead in home state, GOP voters want him to run in 2016

[Tender Branson]

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 27%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 15%
Chris Christie .................................................. 11%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 11%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 9%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 7%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 6%
Rick Santorum................................................ 4%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 8%

Q2 Do you think Rick Perry should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should........................................................ 18%
He should not.................................................. 69%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q3 Do you think Ted Cruz should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should........................................................ 42%
He should not.................................................. 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

...

June 28-July 1, 2013
Survey of 318 Republican primary voters

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_703.pdf

[California8429]

Why does PPP keep going back and forth between polling Martinez and not? Is it just favorite sons type deal like Rick Perry replacing her here?

[PPT Spiral]

Why does PPP keep going back and forth between polling Martinez and not? Is it just favorite sons type deal like Rick Perry replacing her here?

I'm pretty sure you're right about that. In any case, they should just permanently replace Martinez with someone more likely to run at the moment like Walker.

[BaldEagle1991]

Ted Cruz has the highest approval rating of any Senator. I think his approval ratings is near 70% here in TX.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'll take credit for calling the Cruz surge first. I'm sticking with my prediction that he'll lead a national primary poll before 2013 is out. He's already eating Rubio and could eat Paul too. But maybe his move is happening 2 years too soon.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is Cruz eligible? He was born in Canada.

[Mr. Morden]

It's really not often to you see someone win the "should run" v. "should not run" question in their home state.   I'd say that's actually a good sign for his prospects nationally.

The question's being asked of Republicans only.  This is the Republican primary portion of the poll.  Is it actually that unusual to see someone win the "should" vs. "shouldn't" run in their home state if you're only asking members of their own party?

I'll take credit for calling the Cruz surge first. I'm sticking with my prediction that he'll lead a national primary poll before 2013 is out. He's already eating Rubio and could eat Paul too. But maybe his move is happening 2 years too soon.

This is of course Cruz's home state.  I'd like to see more polling elsewhere before rendering judgment on how much Cruz has surged.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'll take credit for calling the Cruz surge first. I'm sticking with my prediction that he'll lead a national primary poll before 2013 is out. He's already eating Rubio and could eat Paul too. But maybe his move is happening 2 years too soon.

This is of course Cruz's home state.  I'd like to see more polling elsewhere before rendering judgment on how much Cruz has surged.

You're right Texas is a distorted read but check out the last Montana. Cruz is tied with Christie and ahead of Rubio and Ryan. There's two things going on far as I can tell. The same Tea Party primary effect that's been happening down ballot the last two cycles. And this I'd say is before people are even realizing Cruz is the most conservative in the field on immigration. Second is that cable news and the Internet has I think changed the GOP. It used to be frontrunners like Reagan, Dole, Bush Jr. were easily predictable nominees 3 years out. The last 2 cycles were harder to predict with 2012 seeing debates let a lot of people surge in succession. Now, I speculate, conservatives, by definition wary of change, get familiar much faster with people who have never been national candidates. To the point where there are early signs Cruz, a senator for 6 months today, is starting to surge. He's helped himself by being a media whore. But I think it also means someone off everyone's radar could conceivably come out of nowhere to become a major player in the 2016 race. Meanwhile, it's the Democrats whose nominee is a foregone conclusion 3 years out.

[barfbag]

Rand Paul is the closest to my views when it comes to the federal government as Ron Paul was in each of the last 2 primaries, but I vote for the best candidate who is electable. This doesn't mean the most electable, just my choice out of the electable ones. I'd vote for Rubio or Christie most likely.

[Tender Branson]

Is Cruz eligible? He was born in Canada.

Of course he is.

Don't you remember ?

5 years ago the candidates for President were born in Kenya and Panama ...

[Mr. Morden]

As usual on the GOP side, the differences in 2016 preference with self-described ideology are huge.  The top four finishers overall are Cruz, Bush, Christie, and Paul.  How do those four do among....

moderates:
Bush 25%
Christie 23%
Paul 10%
Cruz 5%

somewhat conservative:
Cruz 20%
Bush 19%
Christie 10%
Paul 8%

very conservative:
Cruz 39%
Paul 13%
Bush 11%
Christie 4%

[eric82oslo]

Is Cruz eligible? He was born in Canada.

Good question. I know his mother was American, from Delaware, while his father was a Cuban immigrant. I suppose though that he must have obtained American citizenship at birth, since he had an American mum. That's what should matter, your citizenship at birth. Not whether you were born in the US or not. So I guess the answer is yes, he should be eligible.

[badgate]

I think he is and should be eligible, though I've read a few articles that look at the issue and there is vagueness in the law. He may want to, IDK, challenge his own candidacy in court in order to give his candidacy a more solid legal footing.

[Mehmentum]

Rubio at 6%, how the mighty have fallen.

[Heptahedron]

It seems like Rubio really has nowhere to go. Cruz is going to take away a lot of his usual base, and if Bush and Rubio runs, he really has no niche to fil in the party and receives very little support. In my opinion, he would be better focusing on his Senate seat in 2016 and making a presidential run in 2020.