ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST: Obama's shift to right losing the youth vote
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  ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST: Obama's shift to right losing the youth vote
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Author Topic: ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST: Obama's shift to right losing the youth vote  (Read 782 times)
King
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« on: July 15, 2008, 06:51:37 PM »
« edited: July 15, 2008, 06:54:08 PM by Casual Fraction™ »

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1066a308Politics.pdf

In March, 66% of voters age 18-to-29 said they’d “definitely vote” in November; now it’s down to 46%.



As a result, Obama's 8 point lead among registered voters falls to just 3 points as youth say they aren't likely to vote --

Registered voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Likely voters:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%



Also...

Former Clinton supporters:
Obama 66%
McCain 23%



METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
July 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a
3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2008, 06:53:26 PM »

Welcome back to reality!
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2008, 07:01:36 PM »

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1066a308Politics.pdf

In March, 66% of voters age 18-to-29 said they’d “definitely vote” in November; now it’s down to 46%.



As a result, Obama's 8 point lead among registered voters falls to just 3 points as youth say they aren't likely to vote --

Registered voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Likely voters:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%



Also...

Former Clinton supporters:
Obama 66%
McCain 23%



METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
July 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a
3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.


Even in March, when it was 66%, it wasn't really 66%.  Democrats aren't going to like this simple fact, but a good solid chunk of all these newly registered voters simply aren't going to be headed to the polls in November.

I'm just surprised that they're starting to admit it in polls this soon.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2008, 07:03:48 PM »

I agree with the two preceding posts with the caveat that this poll has a rich and exciting history of sucking.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2008, 07:55:32 PM »

The ABC/WaPo poll is one of the worst!

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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2008, 02:01:10 AM »

Obama's going to lose the youth vote to McCain!  Watch out Obama!!

[I know the poll is talking about turnout]
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2008, 02:05:05 AM »

Excitement about this campaign has definitely gone down in the last few months but then again it is summer. Obama needs to excite the youth vote later this year if he wants to secure his win. His much debated convention speech could just add that fire needed to turn out the young'uns.
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Meeker
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2008, 02:54:23 AM »

So we have one poll, during the summer, from a crappy pollster, with a small sample size

Pretty much the definition of accurate polling data
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