West Virginia Megathread

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Well if he wants to run with Obamacare, this is a damn good way to do it. This, and the other ad spot the Majority PAC put out, are pretty impressive.

Running on Obamacare, rather than from it, is the smartest move for Democrats at this point.  An unpopular law won't become popular if the people who voted for it won't bother defending it, and for that reason they deserve to pay the price.

[Miles]

Wow. Tomblin vetoed the abortion bill.

[Donerail]

Wow. Tomblin vetoed the abortion bill.

Simple majority to override in West Virginia, though.

[windjammer]

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[Hifly]

Big mistake.

[windjammer]

Big mistake.

If this bill is unconstitutional, that is a waste of time.

[Hifly]

Big mistake.

If this bill is unconstitutional, that is a waste of time.

Nobody knows whether it's unconstitutional yet, and West Virginia is an overwhelmingly pro-life state. This won't help Democrats this November.
If the legislature is smart, they will override this veto.

[Potus]

There are a couple things that have me convinced at least one house of the Legislature(Probably the House of Delegates) is going to flip this year:

1. The abortion bill. Tomblin vetoing the abortion bill just hit local parties hard. I was in line with our local Dem chair at the grocery store yesterday and he said to, "People around here, myself included, won't vote for a pro-abortion party. I thought Tomblin was different. I thought the party I've been a member of my whole life was different. He proved me wrong." This is going to be really rough on Democrats.

2. The AG ethics bill. This hurts in a couple ways. The first is that people like the AG and they still don't trust Democrats with justice issues. Patrick can give a great speech that persuades people while still turning out the base. The second way this kills them is that it makes the AG's office angrier than they needed to be. The AG is politically moneyed and this "ethics" bill is a beacon for hellfire and brimstone.

3. The Manchin gun bill. Manchin's always been the WV Dem's workhorse in this state. He was wildly popular and the support was spread across party lines. He was someone that could hold the party together and keep them grounded on the centrist line. He kept the ear of many West Virginians tuned into the Democratic Party. After the gun bill, his popularity wasn't so wild. Tomblin is now a pro-choice supporter of late term abortion and Manchin is an awful gun grabber. They're running out of idols.

4. The false claims bill. Sue-and-settle rattled the Chamber of Commerce which has actually been a swing constituency in WV. They endorsed Tomblin for Governor, for example. Sue-and-settle really agitated them and I fully expected them to move dramatically closer to the Republican Party in this election.

5. Shelley. She's an absolutely great nominee and she's going to win and win big. Having her at the top of the ticket and a constant political prosecution against the President is nothing but good for the Republican Party.

6. The WVGOP. They're doing great. The party is more organized today and more competent. They're answering the infrastructural problems of the RNC in the state and I have no doubt that our party will deliver more partisan heft in the fall with a sluggish Democratic Party.



There are a number of others that may be skipping my mind, but this is the gist of it.

[TJ in Oregon]

One thing I don't understand is that if people are going to be unwilling to vote for the Democrats because they're a pro-abortion party now that Tomblin vetoed this, how are they then going to turn around and vote for Shelley Moore Capito? Isn't she pro-choice too?

[Potus]

One thing I don't understand is that if people are going to be unwilling to vote for the Democrats because they're a pro-abortion party now that Tomblin vetoed this, how are they then going to turn around and vote for Shelley Moore Capito? Isn't she pro-choice too?

Shelley is very unique on abortion. She and I hold the same position but call ourselves different things. She supports an x week abortion ban and a bunch of other regulations on abortion but still calls herself pro-choice because she wants to protect the right to choose early on. My same position, and I call myself pro-life because I'd get boo'ed off stage at an EMILY'S LIST event.

[Joshgreen]

The concern trolling is stong in this thread...

[Deus Naturae]

American Energy Alliance ad ties Rahall to carbon tax.

[Deus Naturae]

WV-03: House Majority PAC released ad tying Jenkins to the chemical spill and the Koch bros.

[Miles]

Some good news for Rahall was that Jenkins had weaker than expected fundraising.

Jenkins: $200K raised, $500K CoH
Rahall: $325K raised, $1.1M CoH

[Miles]

Yikes. Sabato moved WV-03 to Leans R.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Yikes. Sabato moved WV-03 to Leans R.

I haven't followed this race too closely this cycle so far, is he polling really that terribly?

[IceSpear]

Yikes. Sabato moved WV-03 to Leans R.

I haven't followed this race too closely this cycle so far, is he polling really that terribly?

Well Sabato gives McConnell the same odds of getting re-elected as he does to Merkley and Warner, so don't take it too seriously.

[Miles]

Yikes. Sabato moved WV-03 to Leans R.

I haven't followed this race too closely this cycle so far, is he polling really that terribly?

Its mostly because 1) Evan Jenkins is better than his previous opponents and 2) AFP has already spent upwards of $1 million on ads hammering him.

Still, WV-03 has not voted for a downballot Republican in the last century. A Rahall defeat would truly be historic. Even if she loses by 10-12 statewide, I can still see Tennant carrying it.

[RogueBeaver]

Capito and Tennant both raised about $800k, but SMC still has a 4-1 COH advantage.

[windjammer]

Heitkamp heads to West Virginia for Tennant Campaign.

[Miles]

Poor Rahall

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[RogueBeaver]

He should've retired. Now he could get Blanched.

[IceSpear]

Poor Rahall

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Resigning because you're so terrified of losing will look just as bad if not worse than just running a tough campaign and losing, so what's the point?

[publicunofficial]

Poor Rahall

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Resigning because you're so terrified of losing will look just as bad if not worse than just running a tough campaign and losing, so what's the point?

The man wins in landslides for 30 years, and now he's the most endangered incumbent in Congress through no fault of his own. Losing is going to be tough on him.

I haven't given up on Rahall yet. He could lose by ten or win by ten and I don't think anyone would be that surprised by either result due to the nature of WV-03.

[DINGO Joe]

Just to give a little perspective on how rapidly CAPP coal (the center of the CAPP coal region is Rahal's district)  is dying, some coal production numbers:

2008   East Kentucky (CAPP)       90.6 million tons
           West Kentucky (Illinois)    30.2 mt

2013   East Kentucky (CAPP)       39.2 mt
           West Kentucky (Illinois)    40.9 mt

2008   South WV  (CAPP)             116.7 mt
           North WV   (NAPP)             41.2 mt
         
2013   South WV (CAPP)              70.4 mt
           North WV (NAPP)               42.5 mt

2008   Virginia (CAPP)                   24.7 mt
2013   Virginia (CAPP)                   17.1 mt

The CAPP region has the oldest mines (older generally means more expensive to get remaining coal out)  and the mines had higher transportation costs to get to the power plants they supplied.  They also employed more people than NAPP or Illinois coal mines do per ton.  Virtually all the plants in the Southeast that will continue to burn coal are switching to Illinois Basin coal because it's cheaper and the high sulfur content doesn't matter anymore because any plant still burning coal will have to have scrubbers.

The coal miners have been hit with a second whammy this year by the big drop in met coal (used in steelmaking) prices due to a global glut of supply.  Met coal has been the more profitable product and became super profitable in 2011 when Australian mines had massive flooding.  That's only a memory now and thanks to the global price drop, one US CAPP miner, James River Coal Company has gone bankrupt and intends to auction off what's left of the company.

Also, a  Russian miner Mechel, which ran three complexes in Southern WV through their US subsidiary, Bluestone, had hired JP Morgan to try and sell the mines, then started laying off around Thanksgiving  and seems to have completely shut down.  They're also being sued by two WV counties for not paying their property taxes which were due April 1st.  For work related reasons,  I spent an excessive amount of time last week scouring the internet for any info I could find on what's going on at Bluestone from any backwoods WV newspaper or even stooping to Topix message boards (which is about as much fun as reading a bathroom wall at a gas station). 

Anyway, this region is just doomed, it's incredibly poor, lacks infrastructure or educational opportunities, has severe environmental issues and has little to no diversification, oh and the number of current corruption scandals in the region I read about last week were just numbing.