Future minority-majority states

[eric82oslo]

According to this New York Times article - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/12/racial-makeup-of-red-and-blue-america/ - Democrats in Congress will soon be a minority-majority party. That is to say, that more than 50% of the voters in the districts carried by Congressional Democrats will be non-white Hispanics. As it stands right now, in 2013, the voter percentage in Democratic districts is only 51.1% white, against 48.9% non-white. In comparison, Republicans hold districts which are only one fourth non-white.

Here are the exact numbers for both parties.

Democratic Congressional Districts 2013-2015:

White: 51.1%
Hispanic: 22.5%
Black: 16.4%
Asian: 6.8%
Other: 3.3%

Republican Congressional Districts 2013-2015:

White: 74.7%
Hispanic: 11.1%
Black: 8.5%
Asian: 2.9%
Other: 2.8%

So when do you think Democrats will become a minority-majority party? In the 2014 or the 2016 election? In the case of a Democratic landslide with Hillary as the captain in 2016, I'd say that the most likely years for such an outcome might very well be 2014 and 2018.

[eric82oslo]

This is the year by which I've calculated that each of these 31 states will turn into minority-majority:

5. Nevada: 2014
6. Maryland: 2016 (or 2017)
7. Georgia: 2018
8. Florida: 2021
9. New Jersey: 2022
10. Arizona: 2022
11. Delaware: 2028

12. New York: 2032
13. Mississippi: 2032
14. Virginia: 2033
15. North Carolina: 2034
16. Oklahoma: 2036 (or 2037)
17. Illinois: 2037
18. Connecticut: 2038 (or 2039)
19. Washington: 2039 (or 2040)

20. Louisiana: 2042
21. Alabama: 2042 (or 2043)
22. Colorado: 2044 (or 2045)
23. Alaska: 2046
24. Massachusetts: 2046
25. South Carolina: 2048
26. Arkansas: 2049

27. Oregon: 2052
28. Nebraska: 2052
29. Indiana: 2052
30. Rhode Island: 2053
31. Kansas: 2053
32. Tennessee: 2053 (or 2054)
33. Minnesota: 2056
34. Utah: 2057
35. Pennsylvania: 2057

States that won't go minority-majority for quite a while yet (year to do so extremely uncertain of course):

36. South Dakota: 2066
37. Idaho: 2071
38. Iowa: 2072
39. Missouri: 2077 (or 2078)
40. Wisconsin: 2080 (or 2081)
41. Ohio: 2080 (or 2081)
42. Wyoming: 2096
43. North Dakota: 2097 [though likely to happen (much) sooner than this due to its recent oil boom]
44. Kentucky: 2100
45. Michigan: 2118 [yet with renewed growth, this might change/speed up]
46. New Hampshire: 2121
47. Montana: 2151
48. Maine: 2186
49. Vermont: 2202
50. West Virginia: 2318 [this explains why WV has skewed more rapidly Republican than any other state during the past few elections! this trend will obviously continue, long-term at least]

Based on the newly released US Census' 2013 Population Estimates, we can now update these predictions above. Apparently the reduction in the non-Hispanic white percentage has been much less steep (so far at least) than previously estimated, at least in most states (there are six exceptions to that rule however). So based on these Census estimates (see here for a graphic map illustration: http://www.census.gov/censusexplorer/censusexplorer-popest.html?intcmp=sldr2 ), these are my new calculations of when each state will go minority-majority...

5. Nevada: 2016

6. Maryland: 2019 or 2020
7. Florida: 2024
8. New Jersey: 2024 or 2025
9. Georgia: 2025
10. Arizona: 2028 or 2029

11. New York: 2029 or 2030 (faster than anticipated)
12. Alaska: 2033 or 2034 (much faster than anticipated)

13. Virginia: 2042
14. Delaware: 2043 or 2044
15. Connecticut: 2044
16. Louisiana: 2045
17. Illinois: 2047 or 2048

18. Washington: 2050
19. Mississippi: 2050 or 2051
20. Oklahoma: 2053
21. Massachusetts: 2054 or 2055
22. North Carolina: 2056
23. Rhode Island: 2057 or 2058

24. Wyoming: 2066 or 2067 (much faster than anticipated)

25. North Dakota: 2078 or 2079 (much faster than anticipated)
26. South Dakota: 2079 or 2080
27. Kansas: 2080 or 2081
28. Alabama: 2083
29. Pennsylvania: 2084
30. Colorado: 2085
31. Minnesota: 2086 or 2087
32. Oregon: 2088

33. Nebraska: 2090 or 2091
34. Arkansas: 2092

35. Indiana: 2105
36. Tennessee: 2106

37. Utah: 2112
38. Idaho: 2112
39. Iowa: 2115 or 2116

40. Wisconsin: 2121

41. Montana: 2136 (faster than anticipated)

42. Missouri: 2143
43. Ohio: 2143 or 2144
44. Michigan: 2143 or 2144
45. Kentucky: 2146 or 2147

46. New Hampshire: 2151 or 2152
47. South Carolina: 2152

48. Vermont: 2232

49. West Virginia: 2269 (faster than anticipated)
50. Maine: 2277


Now, these new estimates above are "of course" based on the average decrease in the non-Hispanic population only for the 3 years between 2010 and 2013. Now, if I'd broaden the scope and calculate the average decrease between 2000 and 2013 instead, the numbers would look significantly different of course.

West Virginia is no longer assumed to be the last white majority state standing. Now, there's possibly an even greater chance that the last state to flip minority-majority might as well be Maine.

Notice how absurdly long time it will take most Black Belt states (except Georgia) to flip minority-majority, with current recession-level trends that is. Minorities just don't seem very attracted to states such as Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina. In fact, South Carolina is the single state where the non-Hispanic white population has decreased the least during the last 3 years, only an astonishingly meager 0.3%.

The oil booming states of Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota and Montana are attracting a very high level of citizens with a minority background lately.

[eric82oslo]

This is the percentage point decrease of the non-Hispanic white population in each of the 50 states between 2010 and 2013:

1. Nevada: -2.1%
2. New Jersey: -2%
3. Connecticut: -1.9%
4. Wyoming: -1.9%
5. Alaska: -1.8%
6. Massachusetts: -1.8%
7. Florida: -1.7%
8. Washington: -1.7%
9. Rhode Island: -1.7%
10. North Dakota: -1.7%
11. Maryland: -1.5%
12. South Dakota: -1.5%
13. Texas: -1.4%
14. Virginia: -1.4%
15. Delaware: -1.4%
16. California: -1.3%
17. New Mexico: -1.3%
18. Arizona: -1.3%
19. New York: -1.3%
20. Minnesota: -1.3%
21. Georgia: -1.2%
22. Oklahoma: -1.2%
23. Kansas: -1.2%
24. Pennsylvania: -1.2%
25. Nebraska: -1.2%
26. Illinois: -1.1%
27. Oregon: -1.1%
28. Iowa: -1.1%
29. North Carolina: -1%
30. Indiana: -1%
31. Idaho: -1%
32. Louisiana: -0.9%
33. Utah: -0.9%
34. Arkansas: -0.9%
35. Wisconsin: -0.9%
36. Montana: -0.9%
37. New Hampshire: -0.9%
38. Colorado: -0.8%
39. Tennessee: -0.8%
40. Kentucky: -0.8%
41. Alabama: -0.7%
42. Missouri: -0.7%
43. Ohio: -0.7%
44. Mississippi: -0.6%
45. Michigan: -0.6%
46. Vermont: -0.6%
47. West Virginia: -0.5%
48. Maine: -0.5%
49. South Carolina: -0.3%
50. Hawaii: +0.2%
(Washington D.C.: +0.8%)

[eric82oslo]

Compare the post above with the percentage point change in the non-Hispanic white population between 2000 and 2013:

1. Nevada: -13.5%
2. Florida: -9.4%
3. Maryland: -9%
4. New Jersey: -9%
5. Texas: -8.7%
6. Delaware: -8.6%
7. California: -8.4%
8. Connecticut: -8.4%
9. Washington: -8.4%
10. Georgia: -8%
11. Massachusetts: -7.7%
12. Rhode Island: -7.6%
13. Arizona: -7.5%
14. Virginia: -6.9%
15. Oklahoma: -6.8%
16. Nebraska: -6.5%
17. Oregon: -6.4%
18. Kansas: -6.2%
19. North Carolina: -5.9%
20. Utah: -5.9%
21. New Mexico: -5.8%
22. Pennsylvania: -5.8%
23. Alaska: -5.5%
24. Illinois: -5.5%
25. New York: -5.4%
26. Colorado: -5.4%
27. Minnesota: -5.4%
28. Indiana: -5.3%
29. Iowa: -5.2%
30. Arkansas: -5%
31. Wyoming: -5%
32. Wisconsin: -4.9%
33. South Dakota: -4.8%
34. Idaho: -4.7%
35. North Dakota: -4.6%
36. Tennessee: -4.5%
37. Alabama: -4%
38. Kentucky: -3.8%
39. Ohio: -3.7%
40. New Hampshire: -3.7%
41. Missouri: -3.5%
42. Mississippi: -3.3%
43. Louisiana: -3.1%
44. Michigan: -2.9%
45. Montana: -2.7%
46. Maine: -2.6%
47. Vermont: -2.5%
48. South Carolina: -2.3%
49. West Virginia: -2%
50. Hawaii: -0.3%
(Washington D.C.: +7.6%)

Or let's illustrate the changes on this map below (the darker red, the bigger changes):

Shade coding:

Up to -1.5%: Shade 20% (only Hawaii)
Up to -3%: Shade 30%
Up to -4%: Shade 40%
Up to -5%: Shade 50%
Up to -6%: Shade 60%
Up to -8%: Shade 70%
Up to -10%: Shade 80%
Above -10%: Shade 90% (only Nevada)

[eric82oslo]

Fastest percentage point latino growth of any states between 2010 and 2013:

1. Connecticut: +1.3% (from 13.4% to 14.7%)
2. Rhode Island: +1.2% (from 12.4% to 13.6%)
3. New Jersey: +1.2% (from 17.7% to 18.9%)
4. Alaska: +1.1% (from 5.5% to 6.6%)
5. Florida: +1.1% (from 22.5% to 23.6%)
(Washington D.C.: +1% (from 9.1% to 10.1%))
6. Nevada: +1% (from 26.5% to 27.5%)
7. New Mexico: +1% (from 46.3% to 47.3%)
8. North Dakota: +0.9% (from 2% to 2.9%)
9. Hawaii: +0.9% (from 8.9% to 9.8%)
10. Massachusetts: +0.9% (from 9.6% to 10.5%)
11. Maryland: +0.8% (from 8.2% to 9%)
12. Wyoming: +0.8% (from 8.9% to 9.7%)
13. New York: +0.8% (from 17.6% to 18.4%)
14. California: +0.8% (from 37.6% to 38.4%)
15. Texas: +0.8% (from 37.6% to 38.4%)
16. South Dakota: +0.7% (from 2.7% to 3.4%)
17. Oklahoma: +0.7% (from 8.9% to 9.6%)
18. Nebraska: +0.7% (from 9.2% to 9.9%)
19. Kansas: +0.7% (from 10.5% to 11.2%)
20. Washington: +0.7% (from 11.2% to 11.9%)
21. Illinois: +0.7% (from 15.8% to 16.5%)
22. Arizona: +0.7% (from 29.6% to 30.3%)
23. Pennsylvania: +0.6% (from 5.7% to 6.3%)
24. Idaho: +0.6% (from 11.2% to 11.8%)
25. Oregon: +0.6% (from 11.7% to 12.3%)

The rest of the states (25 in total) have had a percentage point increase of latinos of "only" 0.5% or less during the lapse of these three years.

New Jersey seems poised to become the 8th state which will crack the 20% latino threshold, followed by New York.

If we look at the top of the list, we'll notice that the three states with the highest percentage point increase of latinos are all suburban/exurban states of New York City, also part of the larger metropolitan sweep of the Boston to Washington D.C. area. Of the "seven traditional" latino states (those with at least 1/5 of their population being latino), Florida has had the most substantial growth with an increase of 1.1%, while Colorado easily has had the slowest latino growth with only a meager 0.3% increase during these three years. This could of course lead to Florida having a more dramatic Democratic trend over the course of the next decade than Colorado. Actually, almost no state has had a less impressive latino population increase than Colorado since 2010 (only a bit more than a handful of states).

[eric82oslo]

Here's a Wall Street Journal graphic fitting for this thread.



Just one fourth of the New Mexico and California population under age 15 are non-Hispanic white and just one in three youngsters/children in Texas are the same. While in Nevada and Arizona, the whites under 15 number is hovering around 40%.

The numbers also show that the other/multiracial group in the future might very well surpass the number of Asian Americans, as they already do in the below 15 age group.

[eric82oslo]

This is the year by which I've calculated that each of these states will turn into minority-majority:

Nevada: 2014
Maryland: 2016 (or 2017)
Georgia: 2018
Florida: 2021
New Jersey: 2022
Arizona: 2022
Delaware: 2028

New York: 2032
Mississippi: 2032
Virginia: 2033
North Carolina: 2034
Oklahoma: 2036 (or 2037)
Illinois: 2037
Connecticut: 2038 (or 2039)
Washington: 2039 (or 2040)

Louisiana: 2042
Alabama: 2042 (or 2043)
Colorado: 2044 (or 2045)
Alaska: 2046
Massachusetts: 2046
South Carolina: 2048
Arkansas: 2049

Oregon: 2052
Nebraska: 2052
Indiana: 2052
Rhode Island: 2053
Kansas: 2053
Tennessee: 2053 (or 2054)
Minnesota: 2056
Utah: 2057
Pennsylvania: 2057

So I posted this in 2013. Let's see how far some of the states had come by 2017 and the Census Bureau's 1 year American Community Service estimates (https://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/state-minority-population-data-estimates.html).

As predicted, Nevada had already become minority-majority by 2017. It probably happened in 2016, 2 years later than I estimated.

The next in line, Maryland, however, had still not reached minority-majority status by 2017, although they had gotten awfully close. I now estimate it will happen during the first couple of months of 2019.

Here are my updated predictions for when some of the next in line states will reach minority-majority status:


Maryland: 2019 (winter/early spring, +2 years)

Georgia: 2022 (+4 years)
Florida: 2023 (+2 years)
New Jersey: 2025 (+3 years)
Arizona: 2027 (+5 years)
New York: 2028 (-4 years)


Massachussets: 2040 (-6 years)
Delaware: 2042 (+14 years)
Alaska: 2042 (-4 years)
Virginia: 2043 (+10 years)
Mississippi: 2046 (+14 years)
Illinois: 2048 (+11 years)
Washington: 2048/2049 (+9 years)
Louisiana: 2049 (+7 years)

Connecticut: 2051 (+12 years)
Oklahoma: 2051 (+14 years)
North Carolina: 2053 (+19 years)


Arkansas: 2078/2079 (+29 years)

Alabama: 2084 (+41 years)
Colorado: 2086 (+41 years)



South Carolina: 2154 (+106 years)


There might be several reasons why for most of the states - the exceptions being New York, Massachussets and Alaska - it seems to be taking several more years for them to become minority-majority. The most important reason is probably the recession which occured in 2007/8/9, and which then lead to lower birth rates and dramatically reduced border crossings on the southern border during the Obama years. Overall immigration probably went down quite a bit too, although I haven't seen those statistics. After all, my extrapolation in 2013 was based on the changes between the 2000 and 2010 censuses (censi?), a decade with record high changes in the demographic of the population in almost every state. Hopefully these projections I just made will stand the test of time a little better.

Politically speaking, these changes will have most immediate effects for Georgia, Florida and Arizona, all who are either estimated to go full-blown minority by the 2024 or the 2028 presidential election. Also don't forget Texas, which went minority-majority many, many years ago already, plus Nevada which did so 3 years ago.

[Annatar]

The fall in Hispanic TFR from 2.8 in 2007 to 2.0 in 2017 has really changed the rate of demographic change in a lot of states. For example in Texas, the percentage of births to Hispanic mothers was around 49% in 2006 and was 47% in 2017, virtually no change whereas the actual proportion of Hispanics has grown as a percentage of the population. The biggest effect has been the share of Non-Hispanic white births has basically flat-lined at 52 - 53% since the late 2000's, the share had fallen from 63% in 1990 to 58% in 2000 to 53% by 2008 and has basically stayed there ever since.

[Beet]

The fall in Hispanic TFR from 2.8 in 2007 to 2.0 in 2017 has really changed the rate of demographic change in a lot of states. For example in Texas, the percentage of births to Hispanic mothers was around 49% in 2006 and was 47% in 2017, virtually no change whereas the actual proportion of Hispanics has grown as a percentage of the population. The biggest effect has been the share of Non-Hispanic white births has basically flat-lined at 52 - 53% since the late 2000's, the share had fallen from 63% in 1990 to 58% in 2000 to 53% by 2008 and has basically stayed there ever since.

Looks like the alt right hysteria over immigration was unfounded. Without that they have literally no raison d'etre.

[Annatar]

The fall in Hispanic TFR from 2.8 in 2007 to 2.0 in 2017 has really changed the rate of demographic change in a lot of states. For example in Texas, the percentage of births to Hispanic mothers was around 49% in 2006 and was 47% in 2017, virtually no change whereas the actual proportion of Hispanics has grown as a percentage of the population. The biggest effect has been the share of Non-Hispanic white births has basically flat-lined at 52 - 53% since the late 2000's, the share had fallen from 63% in 1990 to 58% in 2000 to 53% by 2008 and has basically stayed there ever since.

Looks like the alt right hysteria over immigration was unfounded. Without that they have literally no raison d'etre.

I have always found the hysteria that you see from white nationalists on the internet about demographic replacement and cultural change to be pretty funny and strange. The main group that is growing in America are Hispanics and 53% of them identity as white, furthermore the other 47% are still mostly Christian and assimilate fairly easily into American life. With both Hispanic and black fertility rates more or less converging with white ones and Asian fertility being lower then white fertility, there really is no argument that whites are going to be replaced and vanish.