Italian Election Series - 1974 General Elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I have written a sh*tload of stuff and I understand that many of you don't have the time/will to go through all the details, so for those who are interested, here is the SUMMARY OF THE EVENTS:

• Formation of a "Popular Front" government (PSI-PSIUP, with PCI external support).
• Nation plunges into chaos and political violence. Bombings orchestrated by the far-right, and subsequent inquiry sabotaged by high-ranking officers close to the right.
• Dec 1970: coup organized by a neofascist oufit, with help from high-ranking officers, right-wing politicians, industrialists and US secret services.
• New regime attempts to establish a "guided democracy", but massive protests and strikes. Soon full-fledged civil war.
• March 1973: The regime collapses, its leaders flee and the Republic is reinstated with a PSI-PCI-PDP-PLI government.
• The government enacts a massive purge of the administration, tries the collaborators, reestablishes law and order, and passes massive left-wing economic legislation. PLI, then PDP leave government.
• New elections scheduled for September 1974. PCI and PSI run together - PDP and PLI also form an alliance. At the same date, several constitutional amendments put forward by the PSI-PCI government are also put to vote.

Now here's the full thing, for those who are courageous.

The outcome of the 1968 election marked a turning point in Italy's history. For the first time ever, PCI, PSIUP and PSI - the forces of the "proletarian" left - held an absolute majority in the Parliament. As the results came in, large crowds gathered spontaneously in several cities to celebrate, while other Italians witnessed these events with fear and anxiety. Few had a clear idea of what exactly was going to happen, but all could perceive that a new era had just begun.

In the following weeks, all the focus turned toward the Socialist Party, which was the cornerstone of the new legislature. However, debates raged within the PSI leadership. Many of them (including the old leader Pietro Nenni) considered the formation of a "Popular Front" coalition with the PCI to be too risky in light of both Italy's internal political climate and its geopolitical situation. The outbreak of a civil war, waged by the radical right with the tacit backing of large sections of the military and US forces, was a real fear for leftists. The safest path for the advancement of progressive goals, some argued, was to preserve the outgoing coalition with PDP and PLI, and use the new parliamentary balance of power to force its partners into new pro-labor reforms. Still, the Socialists could hardly resist to the pressure of circumstances. Throughout the campaign, PSI had relentlessly appealed to the 1968 movements in an effort to spur progressive voters. Rejecting the Popular Front now that it had become a possibility would certainly be perceived as a betrayal by many such voters. Since 1961, the party had already been on the decline, losing many voters to PCI and PSIUP. Socialist leaders feared that continued alliances with centrist and right-wing forced would not only generate frustrations in terms of policymaking, but eventually lead to the party's demise. The Popular Front was thus a risky strategy, but also a real opportunity for PSI to seize.

The question was eventually settled in late November at the party's political bureau. The PSI's new strongman since the mid-1960s was Francesco De Martino, was a representative of the party's left-wing and resolute supporter of the Popular Front strategy. After several weeks of vibrant polemics, he managed to convince the rest of the party's leadership, and the final motion was adopted unanimously in order to showcase the party's unity. But before the decision could be announced officially, several steps had to be taken. Negotiations opened with PCI and PSIUP, both of which were calling for a Popular Front since Election Night. However, to Socialist leaders it was clear that Communists could not take part in the new government, but had to limit themselves to giving external support. Also, PSI made it an imperative that PCI accepted NATO and Italy's other foreign entanglement, so as to avoid a diplomatic crisis with the US. By early January, Longo and the PCI leadership had begrudgingly accepted these preconditions. Simultaneously, socialist leaders were also secretly meeting with representatives of the US administration in order to reassure about Italy's fidelity. The outgoing Johnson administration, obsessed by the Vietnam quagmire, did not pay much attention to the issue and eventually accepted the proposed "deal".

The agreement was finally announced on January 14th, 1969, more than three months after the election (in the meantime, PSI had maintained support for the Tanassi government, which thus had a comfortable majority). President Saragat was very reluctant to the idea, and for long tried to dissuade the socialists from this alliance, but, with his term about to expire, he did not have leverage to block it. He thus nominated De Martino in late January, and the new government received confidence soon after. The cabinet was comprised almost entirely of socialists, with a few PSIUP members, as previously agreed. However, communist Pietro Ingrao was elected as President of the lower house (the Presidency of the Senate was given to former DC PM - now in the PDP - Amintore Fanfani). The government's first act was the passage of a parliamentary resolution reaffirming Italy's loyalty to the NATO and the Western Bloc. As agreed, PSIUP and PCI abstained, and with the support of other parties, the resolution passed overwhelmingly. The PCI's de-facto acceptance of this resolution caused it to definitively break up with USSR.

The next step, before turning on policy matters, was the Presidential election in May. The coalition's parties had already agreed on the name of Pietro Nenni, PSI's historical leader and a respected figure in the political landscape. The opposition, however, saw this as an attempt by PSI to monopolize the control of institutions, and announced an all-out war to stop his election and force a compromise candidate. PDP and PLI settled on Ugo La Malfa, which was later endorsed by monarchists as well. However, the coalition held compact, and Nenni was eventually elected. In his inauguration speech, Nenni stressed his attachment to national unity and his commitment to rise above partisan battles. Still, the bitterness of the fight over the Presidency had ignited the already tense political climate. Acts of political violence throughout the country sparked during the spring, and the government was forced to focus its efforts on maintaining order.

In August (almost a year after the elections already), the government could finally start working on its first reforms. A bill establishing a national minimum wage was introduced and passed by the end of the year. The new budget was also rushed through in December, containing major hikes in various welfare benefits. Deficit ballooned accordingly, since the government had not had the time to craft a fiscal reform to raise revenue. The government was given no time to think about this, though. On December 12th, 1969, a bomb exploded in Milan's National Bank of Agriculture, killing 17 people and injuring 88. While the first inquiries initially focused on anarchist groups, it soon appeared that things were much more complicated. The police's work was increasingly criticized on left-wing milieus, which claimed that the bombing had been orchestrated by far-right activists with the help of some segment of the State's authorities. Caught by surprise, the government had no idea how to react. While the investigations increasingly appeared to be sabotaged, it had to face the reality that a large section of Italy's services were acting on their own intent. This also sparked vehement criticism from independent left-wing circles.

The political climate, which had never really recovered, became truly poisonous. While no real "civil war" erupted, clashes between left-wing and right-wing groups (and between either of them and law enforcement forces) became daily, and the government found itself unable to stop them. De Martino tried to start by reorganizing the government's services and remove officers who were close to the far-right, but soon found itself without sufficient legal tools and was accused of overreach by the opposition. Meanwhile, the economy was tanking, notably because of high inflation. Relationships between PSI and PCI started becoming more difficult, as De Martino was accused of not doing enough in support of the working class. To recover some compactness within the majority, the government enacted new labor regulations in March 1970, which increased the power of labor unions and reduced work times. Finally, by the fall, the government managed to pass a law reorganizing law enforcement services, in the works since January.

However, by that point, it was already too late. Since the first days of the Popular Front government, high-ranking officials of the military and police, far-right and masonic circles, large segments of the parliamentary right, and wealthy industrialists had been preparing a coup. The US government had expressed support for the project, and the CIA heavily collaborated in the organization of the plan. Nixon had never accepted the idea of a socialist-communist government in Western Europe, and at a time when the USSR was seemingly gaining ground in the geopolitical stage, he thought it essential to strike back. The main figurehead behind the plot was Prince Junio Valerio Borghese, a former commander in Mussolini's forces during WW2 and now leader of a small neofascist outfit.

The Borghese coup was put into execution in the night between December 7th and 8th. The renegade forces easily took control of the State televisions and the Defense and Interior Ministry. By the morning of the 8th, De Martino, Nenni, most institutional figures and most leading members of PSI and PCI had been arrested and locked up. All the organs of government had been subjected (the military was already overwhelmingly sympathetic to the new power). A national message was broadcast, proclaiming the establishment of a "new State" free from political affiliations and dedicated entirely to national interests. In the following days, a "Council for National Salvation" (a sort of government, but with absolute power, since the parliament had been dissolved) was established, under Borghese's lead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While the conspirators were united in their desire to rid Italy of the republican government, they however had wide disagreements regarding what should be done afterwards. While Borghese and his far-right allies already dreamed of a fascist renaissance, the real forces behind the coup had no intention to see Italy return to a totalitarian government. In particular, the US knew that a dictatorship of the kind that they were backing in Latin America or Greece could not be sustainable in Italy. They pressed for a swift return to a "moderate" democracy purged of left-wing parties, as did most high-ranking bureaucrats and right-wing political leaders. As a result, Borghese and the other neofascists were ousted within 100 days of the coup. Giulio Andreotti, a former DC politician who had become influential in the PLI and had actively supported the coup, was asked to replace him, but declined. Finally, the spot was given to Alfredo Covelli, the old Monarchist leader. Looking for a way to establish its legitimacy, the Council managed to convince the former King Umberto II to return to Italy and recover the crown in late 1971 (Umberto, who suffered from ill health and did not have a good grasp on the political situation, had accepted on the condition that democracy and rule of law would be soon reestablished).

The Council intended to enact as soon as possible a new Monarchic constitution. The consensus settled around a form of "guided democracy", with elections being purged of left-wing parties and subject to the "control" of unelected offices appointed by the King and other figures. When the drafting began, however, the regime had already begun to collapse. Back in 1970 already, the coup had sparked outrage among the international community. Not only the communist bloc, but also America's allies in Western Europe refused to recognize the new regime and expressed support for De Martino and the government. Within a few days, Italy was suspended from the European Community and stringent economic sanctions were implemented. The government's most serious troubles did not come from the outside, however. By early 1971, massive protests and strikes were launched by the few left-wing leaders who had avoided capture, completely paralyzing economic activity. The regime reacted with brutal repression, persecuting labor unions and sending the armed forces to shoot demonstrators. However, the overwhelming opposition of the Italian populace, left-wing as well as right-wing (and the particularly impressive determination displayed by workers) made the government's efforts vain. By late 1972, the protests had degenerated into a full-fledged civil war, and the regime was concentrating all its efforts on repression (thus neglecting the economy, which had entirely collapsed). The opponents to the regime, which included all the parties of the left, but also most of the PDP and PLI leaderships, organized in the National Liberation Committee (which took the same name as the Resistance group during WW2). A real guerrilla army, the CLN had by 1973 taken over large areas of the country.

Finally, in March of 1973, while the entire city of Rome had become a battlefield, the regime realized that everything was over. On March 14, Covelli, the King, the Council and most high-ranking bureaucrats left the country with the help of the CIA and found asylum in various countries of the western bloc. For the US, this government had become a major source of embarrassment and the Nixon administration had long resigned itself to its fall. Hostilities ceased almost immediately. Nenni, De Martino, Longo and all the other leaders who had been jailed (the regime had shied away from executing high-profile figures, for fear of international condemnation) were liberated, and together with those who had avoided being caught or had escaped (such as PDP's Aldo Moro), they paraded through the city's streets while crowds celebrated the return of democracy.

There were some uncertainties as to what to do now. Some within the CLN thought that the country's institutions had to be rebuilt from scratch. However, the line that prevailed stated that, since the Borghese coup was a violation of the constitution, all the actions of the subsequent government were null and void, and the First Republic, in its 6th Legislature, was still in place. Thus, President Nenni was swiftly reinstated, and, in his first speech, stressed the importance to ensure the continuity of democratic institutions. De Martino also formed a new government made up of ministers coming from PSI, PCI, PDP and PLI who had been opponents to the regime. A few days later, the House and the Senate elected in 1968 reconvened, though almost 250 seats, between the two houses, were left vacant as their holders were either dead, or (in most cases) were dismissed of their offices for having collaborated with the regime. This gave PSI and PCI together (PSIUP had merged back into PSI shortly after the formation of the CLN) almost two thirds of the seats in parliament.

The first task of the new government was to overhaul the State bureaucracy, both to recreate some government efficacy and to purge the members who had actively worked in favor the regime. Soon, the government had to realize that it did not have sufficient legal means to pursue this work. Thus, it swiftly introduced a constitutional amendment creating a special tribunal (made of presidential appointees confirmed by the Parliament) which was allowed to retroactively punish crimes of "high treason" (three different degrees of gravity were established, with penalties going from permanent disqualification from political offices, civil and military services, to life in prison). PLI, pleading for a policy of "reconciliation", left government, but the Amendment was nonetheless passed with an overwhelming majority. After the establishment of the new tribunal (which required a few further laws to make its competence clear), the purge proceeded at a rapid pace, and by the fall of 1973 the main administrative services were functional and filled with people faithful to the Republic. It took an additional half-year to fully reestablish law and order and crush the few far-right groups which still attempted to continue the fight.

In the meantime, the government also took measures to stimulate the economy. Many industries whose owners had collaborated with the dictatorship were nationalized, and public works were launched to rebuild the country's damaged infrastructures. The government also finally managed to pass the fiscal reform it had long attempted to draft, significantly raising taxes on the wealthiest. Opposing this reformist activism, PDP left the government in early 1974. At the international stage, sanctions against Italy were lifted (though most foreign governments regarded the PSI-PCI alliance with distrust). The economy began a slow recovery, though public finances were in a catastrophic state.

The government's goal was to hold new elections as soon as possible, since the regular five-year delay had already expired. But before then, Socialists and Communists intended to enact reforms aimed at making sure a situation like this one would never occur again. In order to show a stark rupture with the preceding era, the government finally passed the organic law regulating referendums, then subsequently submitted a series of constitutional amendments to popular ratification (see this thread). The referendums, like the general election, were scheduled for September of 1974, so as to leave sufficient time for the proper organization of the vote. Only 4 major political forces contested these elections, namely PCI, PSI, PDP and PLI. The neofascist and monarchist rights had been eradicated by the collapse of the regime and subsequent purges - with most of its leaders now facing trial - and did not have sufficient time to reorganize. PCI and PSI largely campaigned together, presenting themselves as the spearheads of the resistance to the regime. Conversely, PDP and PLI formed a de-facto alliance, in opposition to the perceived overreach of the communist and socialist governments.

[Antonio the Sixth]

List of parties:

Italian Communist Party (PCI) The PCI has been involved heavily in the resistance, with its grassroots organizations forming the base of the CLN's infrastructure. These years of combat have radicalized the party a bit, and now it calls for radical measures to "strike back against the fascist menace". Still, the effervescence is already starting to fade a bit, and the party had clearly abandoned any tie with the USSR (which did not give any substantial help to the CLN during the dictatorship). In its first Congress following the fall of the dictatorship, the party elected as its new secretary Enrico Berlinguer to replace the ill and weakened Longo. So far, Berlinguer has had little time to outline his vision of communism, but the party promises to keep working with PSI in favor of the working class.

Italian Socialist Party (PSI) After forcefully participating in the resistance, PSI has recovered its political leadership following the fall of the regime, and now De Martino leads a PSI-PCI government which has enacted sweeping reforms and presents itself as the embodiment of "real change" to the dark years that preceded. It is running alongside with PCI, promising new economic and societal reforms. At the same time, it seeks to moderate the PCI's radical demands and preserve good relationships between the various parties.

Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) The party has played a major role in the resistance, in particular with a figure such as Aldo Moro, and now presents itself as a force for moderate democrats who reject the PSI-PCI government's radical agenda. As Ugo La Malfa retired from active politics, Aldo Moro took over the party, giving it a more "christian democratic" orientation while preserving its republican and social-democratic roots. The party supports the purge (though it has criticized some excesses) but rejects the government's very left-wing economic policies, instead seeking a more moderate and consensual path to economic prosperity. For the sake of convenience, it has allied with PLI, since both parties are united by their opposition to the incumbent government.

Italian Liberal Party (PLI) The attitude of the party was mixed during the dictatorship years, but by now the party has been purged of its most controversial elements. The PLI, now led by Agostino Bignardi, still positions itself as the defender of free enterprise, and has waged an all-out war against the government's economic agenda. It also opposes the extent of the purge enacted by the government, seen as an obstacle to national reconciliation. It intends to form a moderate government with the PDP.

[traininthedistance]

Oh my.

Guess I'm heading back to the PDP for now- even though they're evolving in a direction that may not be as secular as I'd prefer, it looks to me like a force for moderation is sorely needed, at least in this election cycle.

[Donerail]

PLI now PLI forever.

[Goldwater]

Phew, that was a long read.

Anyway, PLI.

[DC Al Fine]

No social conservatives ... PLI I guess. I hope you bring back a party from the not-neoliberal right soon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phew, that was a long read.

Thanks for reading!

No social conservatives ... PLI I guess. I hope you bring back a party from the not-neoliberal right soon.

Yes, the conservative right will reorganize by the next election. No matter the outcome of Amendment 3, I should precise. Its absence for this election is only due to the confusion of the post-liberation years.

[Leftbehind]

Could vote for either PCI or PSI, but decided PCI because I think the PSI won't need my support.

[RogueBeaver]

PLI, as usual.

[Peter the Lefty]

PSI.

[Nanwe]

PDP.

Umm, will poor Aldo Moro die too in the future like he did in our world? That'd be sad.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PSI, though could be persuaded to vote PDP in the future.

[Lumine]

PLI so they can make things even more fun.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

PLI, easily.

[politicallefty]

I'm still with the PSI.

[H. Ross Peron]

PLI, as usual.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PDP.

Umm, will poor Aldo Moro die too in the future like he did in our world? That'd be sad.

That's a good question: I have to think about it yet. I actually have no idea whether the events of this scenario would foster or hinder the development of the Red Brigades.

[Supersonic]

Nooooo! The Monarchists!

I guess PLI by default. Gosh what a horrible four years..

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

[Leftbehind]

Looks like the Right have it.

[minionofmidas]

PDP.

Umm, will poor Aldo Moro die too in the future like he did in our world? That'd be sad.

That's a good question: I have to think about it yet. I actually have no idea whether the events of this scenario would foster or hinder the development of the Red Brigades.

That should depend on the events of the 12 months or so after the election.

[TNF]

PSI!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm stunned to see PDP doing so poorly... I just thought I had found a way to finally give it some appeal among this forum's population.

Anyway, I voted PSI one more time, to keep the progress going while avoiding overreach.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like we have a very close fight between the two coalitions now. The last votes will be decisive!