A Walk in the Park... The Scott Walker Story.

[badgate]

I'd prefer to see Walker narrowly win, be blamed for four years for keeping Hillary from the Oval Office in some hilariously subtle rhetoric, and get his ass handed to him by Sherrod Brown. But I'm not writing this.

[Maxwell]

Ayotte: Political Corruption at it's worst

Leading up to the GOP Convention, Walker still wasn't quite sure what to do with the VP ticket. They looked at Governor Chris Christie, he checked out, and he polled the best among VP candidates against Clinton/Brown, but many conservatvies also said they would not turn out for a Walker/Christie ticket. Some of those conservatives include Senator Ted Cruz, who had been talking and pressuring GOP delegates and the Walker camp. Cruz played very much the Jesse Helms role in stomping out moderate VP picks. Ayotte seemed like a concensus candidate, and Walker liked that about her, because it reflected how he managed to be the GOP nominee. That night, on August of 2016, he was ready to pick her.

However, something deadly came up on Senator Ayotte that destroyed her chances of being the Vice Presidential nominee. It turned out she had taken direct checks from military industrial companies in exchange for votes on certain pieces of legislation, and writing of pieces of legislation. The details of the scandal emerged rather quickly, and sank her re-election numbers. She announced that she would leave the Senate race in New Hampshire, leaving a big hole in the race against Governor Maggie Hassan. NH Republicans held a convention to fill the spot and decided to go with staunch conservative Ovide Lamontage, her former Republican opponent for Governor. The whole ordeal was a disaster and Walker moved away quickly from any speculation of Senator Ayotte.

This made Walker's decision much more difficult. His top names were Governor Chris Christie, who he was aware of the risks, but also noted how much the two got along, Governor John Kasich, whose endorsement helped him upset in New Hampshire and whose reputation was still that of a conservative, and Senator Dean Heller, a moderate in the Senate who could help throw Nevada to the Republicans. There was one that was mentioned often in the media, Governor Susana Martinez, who had soundly rejected time and time again the notion of being the VP pick. The Walker camp knew they need to make a bold choice, so they confronted Martinez and pushed her to the ticket. She accepted, with a couple of conditions: if her family life got in the way, she had to have time to go to them, and she was to be allowed to not answer questions that involved negative attacks on the Clinton camp. Walker accepted it, knowing she would be the only VP pick to even have a possibility against Clinton.

Susana Martinez is Governor Scott Walker's VP pick!



"Thank you Governor Walker for giving me the opportunity in this role. Governor Walker and I agree on this basic premise: that we will fight for all of you. Policies both I and Walker have put into action in our states made our states models for the rest of the nation. We can turn this nation around, back to the principles we fought for, and we can do this if we vote the right way. I encourage you, Walker/Martinez is the real deal!"

The pick was interesting, some conservatives felt anguish, but certainly not Senator Ted Cruz the power broker. Cruz liked Martinez, he understood the need, and was accepting of her nomination. This shocked Walker in some ways, but he understood it in others. Afterwards, the Walker camp set up who was going to give the keynote: Senator Rand Paul. Even with his botched President campaign, he was still admired in most GOP circles for his filibuster, and had pushed the GOP to accept an Anti-Patriot Act Anti-NSA platform. Walker set up a lot of the key speakers in a way that the convention wouldn't go after it's more isolationist element. The convention looked to be a success.

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign faced some staunch criticism. Hillary's foreign policy and privacy policy plan appalled many Democrats. Congressman Rush Holt had announced that he would not endorse the Clinton campaign because of that major policy difference. He even stated that he thought about leaving the Democratic Party and joining the Greens. This brought Hillary's favorability numbers down some, but Sherrod Brown held up some of that fall by announcing the campaign's ideas on Labor Laws. He pushed Hillary to the left when she needed it after appealing to the right, and that combination seemed to work, as Holt's outrage seemed to do no real damage to her polling numbers. It seemed like Walker was facing Teflon Hillary.

[PolitiJunkie]

Governor Maxwell, any chance you'll consider reviving "2004: Senator Bob Graham Rises"? It was a really interesting timeline that kinda ended suddenly.

[Maxwell]

Polls as of September!

PPP Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Scott Walker: 43%
Others: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Rasmussen Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Scott Walker: 45%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Quinnipiac Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Scott Walker: 44%
Others: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Scott Walker: 45%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 6%

RCP Averages:
Hillary Clinton: 48.8%
Scott Walker: 44.2%
Undecided: 5.6%

249 - 215 - 74

[tmthforu94]

I like where this is going. Keep it up!

[Maxwell]

The Conventions: An even match

Walking into the convention, many thought the message of the GOP would be convoluted and muddy. However, walking out, it looks like a GOP united on a re-investigation of our Privacy Rights and a strong national defense. With Senator Rand Paul giving a speech uniting the GOP under that banner, and many unlikely faces standing behind Rand Paul. Governor Christie gave a roaring speech going after Hillary's record as Senator of New York and Sherrod Brown's liberal voting record. Martinez gave the passion that Walker could not, and Walker gave the data that Martinez could not, showing they were a good team. After the convention, the Walker camp shot to the first lead of the entire campaign.

However, the Hillary camp fought back with their convention. Keynote Speaker Bruce Braley promoted labor rights, while Sherrod Brown covered much of the same ground. Hillary Clinton gave a star studded speech, detailing her life and promoting her experience. Senator Lundergan Grimes ripped apart Governor Walker's record as Governor, going after him on unions and education. While Walker gained a lead right after the Republican convention, the Democratic Convention shot the polls back to normal. The debates will prove to be extremely important.

[Maxwell]

Obamacare in Flames: The First Debate

President Barack Obama was unpopular, holding approval ratings of 39-40%. This barely harmed Hillary's numbers, which many were surprised by, but there was a recognition that his Presidency was not as successful as many had hoped. Most of that negativity came from his own party: Their continual angst over NSA spying and drone warfare continued to bog down on the incumbent President. Now, more and more were disapproving over Obamacare.

A cost analysis showed that healthcare costs had managed to get even bigger, even with the bill promising lower costs. And as the cost for the bill came in, we sank deeper into a deficit. Economic confidence lowered, and unemployment went up a tid bit for the first time in months. The administration still held out hope for the bill, but it looked to be going nowhere, with approval of the bill still in the low 30s and starting to sink. With that in mind, Walker came on even stronger.

This issue was the central issue of the debate, and it was fierce. Hillary Clinton stood up in the debate and chastised Walker's criticism.

"It's Republicans like you, who stalled progress, who held back, who fought every living second, that made the bill more inefficient and weak. I'd say you were part of the problem, not part of the solution."

Now, Walker knew what to go after. Talking about her consistent favoring of Universal Healthcare, the Governor charged Clinton wanted an even more inefficent system. Making note of Harry Reid's admission that Obamacare was a step to Universal Healthcare, he went after her own plans and said that; "Healthcare in America only got worse when Government got involved, we need more innovation and less intervention. Look what intervention has given us? This is the wrong way to go!"

Walker won the first debate handily, and the Clinton's began to worry deeply about their prospects and their abilities. It would be the second debate that would bring the race back to normal. Now the question is, what happens to these candidates in the third debate?

[Maxwell]

Before the Election - A look at the Senate and the Presidential race

The townhall debate was a draw, with Clinton knocking Walker on his anti-union stances and Walker knocking Clinton on her lack of accomplishment in the Senate. It was considered contentious, and the story afterward was when Walker wagged his finger in Clinton's face. Nevertheless, the polling didn't change much after the debate.

The foreign policy debate, however, was a shining point for Walker. This was another referendum on the administration - Walker knocked the Presidents actions on the NSA, while holding back on Iraq talk. Clinton laid out an elaborate foreign policy, attempting to appeal to the neo-cons. There was almost a confusion in her voices, as if someone had turned the tables, and in a way, they had. Walker, in a surprising turn, said about Iraq.

"We should learn the lessons of History. I know some of my allies won't acknowledge this, but I will. When you're President, the buck stops with you, and I have to say that the war in Iraq was a failure. We have to take in mind that, and while I support an active America and a strong national defense, we have to be cautious about intervention under both Republicans and Democrats, and that's why I think the administration's foreign actions are wrong and Clinton's ideas are wrong for America."

Democratic operatives have voiced their lack of satisfaction with the Clinton campaign. Despite some positioning to help in coal states, Walker has successfully moved the polls substantially in states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, Lousiana, and even Arkansas, where the Former First Lady of the state ties Governor Walker. In spite of the pick of Sherrod Brown, he has proven to not move the meter much in the state, and Walker trails Clinton there by only a point.

In most of the states toss-up, Clinton either ties or leads. Most of the former Lean states went to Likely states, and Likely went to Safe, as expected. As a result, despite Walker's one vote lead in a generic electoral college, Clinton leads in the popular vote.

PPP Polls - 49% Clinton, 46% Walker
Rasmussen Poll - 49% Walker, 48% Clinton
Quinnipiac Poll - 49% Clinton, 49% Walker
Reuters Poll - 50% Clinton, 45% Walker
RealClear Average - 49.0% Clinton, 47.3% Walker

238 - 237 - 63

Notable Senate Races
AZ - 49% McSally, 47% Kelly
AR - 52% Boozman, 42% Ross
CO - 48% Gardner, 47% Bennet
FL - 49% Rubio, 46% Brown
IL - 50% Schakowsky, 47% Schock
KY - 51% Whitfield, 45% Edelen
MO - 48% Blunt, 48% Zweifel
NV - 52% Sandoval, 43% Reid
NH - 61% Hassan, 30% Lamontage
NC - 50% Burr, 46% Foxx
PA - 49% Toomey, 46% Wolf
WI - 48% Barca, 47% Johnson

[Maxwell]

Gore Redux: Walkers wins popular vote, loses electoral vote

In spite of Walker's electoral victories, there was no question he still faced massive hurdles. Even in the last quarter of fundraising, Walker still came up short to the Clinton machine. The Clinton's, well-funded and organized, knew what they needed to do, and were far more organized than the Republicans. Nevertheless, election night was considered to be one of the closest in our nations history. Walker scored large victories outwest, and most states trended to the right. When all the results were in, Walker had won the popular vote.

But organization was the issue. Clinton scored a crucial victory in Arkansas by less than a thousand votes. Nevada, Arkansas, Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico weren't called until three weeks after election day, leaving most Americans waiting to see who their next President would be. With that narrow win, Clinton enters the White House weakened and without a mandate that Democrats needed for their next session.

Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)/Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM) - 49.38%, 266 EV's
Fmr. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) - 49.23%, 272 EV's
Others - 1.39%, 0 EV's

Senate results will be up later tonight.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Obviously Clinton would not win Arkansas while losing the popular vote.

[tmthforu94]

A high quality timeline, but I agree. If Clinton wins Arkansas she wins every state that has been considered a swing-state in the past decade and would certainly keep Walker under 60% in West Virginia.

[Maxwell]

Obviously Clinton would not win Arkansas while losing the popular vote.

I know T. Jeff, but use your imagination.

A high quality timeline, but I agree. If Clinton wins Arkansas she wins every state that has been considered a swing-state in the past decade and would certainly keep Walker under 60% in West Virginia.

You're probably right on that, I kind of calculated to see, and that's something I may revise.

[Maxwell]

Full Notable Senate Results

Arizona
Congresswoman Martha McSally is considered the frontrunner for the Arizona seat by a large margin. Until September, she led most polls by 10 to 20 point margins. However, with the late entrance and growth of Mark Kelly’s numbers, the Arizona race turned surprisingly competitive, and the outcome was not known. However, by the last minute, undecideds came home, and McSally won a narrow but respectable victory

Congresswoman Martha McSally (R) - 51.1%
Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) - 47.7%
Others - 1.2%

Arkansas
Senator John Boozman faced a re-match of sorts in the surprising primary victory of Former Congressman Mike Ross. No Democrat, besides maybe Mike Beebe, was considered likely to win this race, but Ross ran an active and aggressive campaign, and by getting within ten of the incumbent Senator, surprised many pundits.

Senator John Boozman* (R) - 53.2%
Former Congressman Mike Ross (D) - 44.5%
Others - 2.3%

Colorado
Instead of challenging Mark Udall, Cory Gardner instead decided to use his talents against the other Senator from Colorado. He cleared the field instantly and polled surprisingly well against Senator Michael Bennet. Bennet, considered a rather anonymous figure to most Coloradans, ran an aggressive campaign. The race was considered a toss-up the whole time, but in the end, Coloradans went with Governor Walker, and Walker pulled Gardner narrowly to victory, in one of the toughest Senate fights in the country, even in a year of very tough Senate fights.

Fmr. Congressman Cory Gardner (R) - 48.7%
Senator Michael Bennet* (D) - 48.5%
Others - 2.8%

Florida
Even with a contentious re-election campaign, Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown was considered a rising star in the Florida Democratic party. Though Debbie Wasserman Schultz considered the race, she ultimately passed, due to her weak polling numbers. Brown ran instead, and attacked Rubio hard on his very conservative record, painting himself as a moderate. Rubio trailed for a couple of months, but fired back, attacking the mayors record in Jacksonville and dominating the mayor in the only debate they had. Rubio shaved the image of the water sipping fool, and won by a surprising margin.

Senator Marco Rubio (R) - 52.6%
Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D) - 45.2%
Others - 2.2%

Illinois
Senator Kirk’s stroke was the reason for his retirement, but he also knew that he would face one of the most contentious re-election campaigns in history. Instead, he passed it off to Congressman Aaron Schock, who was considered somewhat controversial after being outted as a homosexual even though he has consistently voted against gay rights. Most Democrats considered Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky a weak nominee, and her numbers started to dip after mid September, but she managed to win the open Republican seat anyway.

Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D) - 53.0%
Congressman Aaron Schock (R) - 45.6%
Others - 1.4%

Kentucky
Senator Rand Paul’s failed Presidential also led to a failed primary successor, with Ed Whitfield beating out Thomas Massie in a very contentious primary. State Auditor Adam Edelen, the Democrat in the race, thought the contentious primary could lead to success, but Whitfield proved to be a competent nominee, and won the Senate race easily.

Congressman Ed Whitfield (R) - 54.2%
State Auditor Adam Edelen (D) - 44.6%
Others - 1.2%

Missouri
Senator Roy Blunt, besides the retiring John McCain, was the least popular Senator in the country. The State Treasurer, Cliff Zweifel, entered the race uncontested in the Democratic primary, and ran 20 points ahead of Blunt out the gate. However, Blunt ran hard to regain his seat, and the polling narrowed toward the end. However, a gaffe in which Blunt called the new Iraqi prime minister an “egg head”, his momentum stopped, causing Zweifel to win the seat.

State Treasurer Cliff Zweifel (D) - 49.3%
Senator Roy Blunt* (R) - 48.2%
Others - 2.5%

Nevada
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had lost his re-election to Alison Lundergan Grimes, and it looked like Majority Leader Harry Reid was headed toward the same path. Governor Brian Sandoval, whose approvals stood at over 70%, announced he would end Harry Reid’s career. Reid, rather unpopular in Nevada, trailed the whole campaign, and even with a large turnout machine, didn’t stand a chance against Sandoval.

Governor Brian Sandoval (R) - 52.6%
Majority Leader Harry Reid* (D) - 41.1%
None of the Above - 4.2%
Others - 1.1%

New Hampshire
After a major scandal forced Senator Kelly Ayotte to resign, the Republican Party in New Hampshire faced an impossible task - holding a tainted seat. Governor Maggie Hassan ran for the open seat, and her former Gubernatorial opponent, Ovide Lamontage, was the GOP designated pick to run for the seat. Due to Ayotte’s scandal, the GOP had no chance of holding the seat, and Lamontage certainly did nothing to improve their chances.

Governor Maggie Hassan (D) - 69.3%
Lawyer Ovide Lamontage (R) - 27.4%
Others - 3.3%

North Carolina
The anonymous Senator Richard Burr faced a tough challenge from Former Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. He was forced to defend his votes and defend his record as a backbencher who accomplished little for North Carolina. The polls tightened quickly, and the debate between the two was fierce. Foxx’s connection to the Obama administration was consistently attacked (Obama’s approvals in NC were 38%), but Foxx got a boost from some ads by Pro-Burr Super PAC’s that were considered racist. Nevertheless, Burr won by a narrower than expected margin.

Senator Richard Burr* (R) - 50.2%
Fmr. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx (D) - 48.3%
Others - 1.5%

Pennsylvania
Despite a bipartisan streak, Senator Pat Toomey was nevertheless considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the nation. He thought luck had struck him when Former Pennsylvania Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf won the Democratic nomination, but Wolf proved to be a very strong candidate, running as a Warren-esqe populist. Debates were very contentious, and in spite of his constant advertising, voters never bought Toomey as a conservative outsider. Wolf won in a narrow upset against the Senator.

Fmr. Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf (D) - 50.8%
Senator Pat Toomey* (R) - 47.9%
Others - 1.3%

Wisconsin
The second least popular Senator in the country, Ron Johnson was deeply in danger early on in his campaign. However, the Democratic primary became one of the most contentious remebered, Assembly Leader Peter Barca and Congressman Ron Kind blasted eachother with ads and attacking eachothers controversies. This resulted in a boon for Johnson, who faced two net negative favorable candidates. Barca, known as the weaker of the two in a possible general election, won, but even then Johnson still trailed by five. Voters had forgotten Johnson’s strong campaign in 2010, but would face his abilities once again in 2016, running against Washington, pledging this to be his last term, and attacking Barca for being a leader in disfunction in Wisconsin. Polls up the election day still showed Barca ahead, but Johnson won re-election by holding on to Governor Walker’s coat-tails.

Senator Ron Johnson* (R) - 48.4%
Assembly Leader Peter Barca (D) - 47.8%
Others - 3.8%

Other Senate Races
Alabama - 70% Shelby, 27% Griffith
Alaska - 58% Sullivan, 39% Egan
California - 60% Boxer, 38% Strickland
Connecticut - 56% Blumenthal, 40% Boughton
Georgia - 66% Isakson, 30% Thurmond
Hawaii - 62% Schatz, 35% Aiona
Idaho - 61% Crapo, 38% Stallings
Indiana - 55% Coats, 43% Ellsworth
Iowa - 56% Grassley, 42% Krause
Kansas - 100% Moran
Lousiana - 52% Boustany, 34% Edwards, 12% Landry
Maryland - 62% Miluski, 36% Craig
New York - 72% Schumer, 26% Walter
North Dakota - 100% Hoeven
Ohio - 56% Portman, 41% Hagan
Oregon - 64% Wyden, 30% Bruun
South Carolina - 78% Scott, 21% Greene
South Dakota - 68% Thune, 31% Johnson
Utah - 57% Lee, 40% Becker
Vermont - 100% Leahy
Washington - 60% Murray, 39% Rossi

[TX Conservative Dem]

How did Hillary lose Virginia?

Does the Old Dominion hate the Clintons that much?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I hope to see Rand back in the Senate ITTL ASAP. Nice way to set up a Walker run.

[Maxwell]

2016 Gubernatorial Elections

Delaware
No surprises here. Beau Biden wins the Democratic nomination unopposed, and faces sacrificial lamb, Republican state Rep. Michael Ramone. Ramone performs slightly better than expectations, but not enough to get passed being a sacrificial lamb in this race.

Attorney General Beau Biden (D) - 62.2%
State Rep. Michael Ramone (R) - 37.8%

Missouri
Democratic Governor Jay Nixon is term-limited, and top Democratic recruits avoided this race to run for Senate. Jason Holsman, a former Senate staffer and state Senator, took the mantle as the top second tier candidate, and faced off against top Republican recruit Tom Schweich. Inspite of Missouri’s Dem-leaning history, Schweich beat even Walker’s margins in the state and ran away with the election.

State Auditor Tom Schweich (R) - 54.1%
State Senator Jason Holsman (D) - 43.4%
Others - 2.5%

West Virginia
In one of the most contentious races of the year in a fight for control over the state of West Virginia, Sec. of State Natalie Tennant faces off against Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. The race goes nuclear negativie, the voters don’t have a positive view of either candidate. However, Morrissey is aided by the Republican revolution in the state, and narrowly defeats Tennant.

Attorney General Patrick Morrissey (R) - 50.3%
Sec. of State Natalie Tennant (D) - 49.7%

Montana
The state Majority Leader Wittich ran a very hopeful campaign, but didn’t stand a chance against the popular Governor Steve Bullock.

Governor Steve Bullock* (D) - 56.8%
Majority Leader Art Wittich (R) - 38.9%
Others - 4.3%

Washington
Inslee’s approvals are middling to below average, usually around 42-44%, and Republicans saw an oppurtunity. They re-ran Fmr. Attorney General Rob McKenna for a re-match, and McKenna and Inslee battled it out like before. However, McKenna’s candidacy was weakened by his partisan affiliation, and with an improving situation in the state of Washington, McKenna was bound to lose.

Governor Jay Inslee* (D) - 51.6%
Fmr. Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) - 47.3%
Others - 1.1%

Indiana
Pence’s popularity in the state was strong, and after Former Senator Evan Bayh rejected calls to enter the race, Democrats ran a sacrificial lamb in Scott Pelath, the House Minority Leader in the state. Easy to say, he didn’t stand a chance.

Governor Mike Pence* (R) - 62.4%
House Minority Leader Scott Pelath (D) - 35.4%
Others - 2.2%

North Dakota
Governor Jack Dalrympe* (R) - 100%

North Carolina
Governor Pat McCrory had a rough first two years, but as the situation in North Carolina began to improve, so did his numbers. By July, McCrory held a ten point lead over Attorney General Roy Cooper. However, after July, the McCrory campaign’s incompetence began to take hold, and by late October, Cooper and McCrory were again in a dead heat, with some polls even showing Cooper ahead by 2. However, Cooper made some notable gaffes throughout the campaign that offended some traditional Democratic demographics (including blacks), and McCrory managed to win a very narrow re-election on the back of those comments.

Governor Pat McCrory* (R) - 49.4%
Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) - 48.7%
Others - 1.9%

Utah
In the first contentious statewide race in a long time, Congressman Jim Matheson faces Assistant Majoirty Whip Peter C. Knudson. Knudson, known by his colleagues to be kind of a bore, runs a mediocre campaign and Matheson runs an energetic one. Nevertheless, Matheson, even with all his talents, is never able to leap above the partisan boundries of the state, and loses by 7 points, the closest a Democrat has come since his father’s election to the same office so many years ago.

State Senator Peter C. Knudson (R) - 52.3%
Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 45.4%
Others - 2.3%

New Hampshire
The Ayotte scandal has poisoned the water for state-wide Republicans in New Hampshire, and Democrats are not only poised to win back the state house and Senate, but are also poised to win the office of Governor and Senate. A fierce Democratic primary results in a victory for State Senator David Pierce, who famously gave a great speech on gay marriage. He faces Republican perennial candidate Kevin Smith. Smith runs a better campaign than his counterpart, Ovide Lamontage, but he still is swept by the Anti-State Republican tidal wave that exists in New Hampshire.

State Senator David Pierce (D) - 60.2%
Former State Rep. Kevin Smith (R) - 36.5%
Others - 3.3%

Vermont
Shumlin popularity hits new lows over budget issues, and voters find themselves with a competitive race. Lt. Governor Phillip Scott, seeing new opportunity in the red eyes of the voters, runs against the Governor on a moderate reform package. Shumlin, trailing in the polls, trashes the package, asking the ever famous “Where’s the Beef” question. Shumlin starts to come back, but on election day, him and Scott are tied. Undecideds come home, though, and Shumlin wins by close to 9 points.

Governor Pete Shumlin (D) - 53.6%
Lt. Governor Phillip Scott (R) - 45.2%
Others - 1.2%

[free my dawg]

My god, just add a Feingold victory, swap out Clinton for Warren, and you have my personal utopia.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Wondering what percentage of the African American vote did McCrory got against Cooper ?

I know he won 13% of the AA vote in 2012.

[Maxwell]

Wondering what percentage of the African American vote did McCrory got against Cooper ?

I know he won 13% of the AA vote in 2012.

His numbers go down amongst whites and hispanics, but he wins 14% of African Americans in 2016.

[Maxwell]

First year of the Clinton Administration

Hillary's Cabinet
Secretary of State - Bill Richardson
Secretary of Treasury - Beth Brooke
Secretary of Defense - Susan Collins
Attorney General - Seth Waxman
Secretary of Interior - Sally Jewell
Secretary of Agriculture - Brad Ashford
Secretary of Commerce - Steven Rattner
Secretary of Labor - Janice Hahn
HHS Secretary - Walter Broadnax
HUD Secretary - Saul Ramierez
Secretary of Transportation - Royce West
Secretary of Education - Tom Vilsack
Secretary of Energy - Rob Brenner
Secretary of Veteran's Affairs - John McCain
Secretary of Homeland Security - Wesley Clark

While staying neutral in the campaign, Hillary Clinton knew that she had to push an agenda right away during the first year. During the State of the Union, she managed to push off Democrats and Republicans by pushing for immigration reform, deficit reduction, further reforms to healthcare, and an activist america across the globe. The GOP leadership have already said no dice to immigration reform and healthcare, but have been willing to talk on deficit reduction.

The first year of the Clinton administration was marked by strong critiques from both sides. The Progressive caucus stood against The Deficit Reduction Act of 2017, and Senator Patrick Leahy, an aging voice in the Senate, filibustered the bound to pass bill, calling it a "sham and a shame, cutting the American people while continuing record military spending". The further right said the bill wouldn't put us on a balanced budget until 2025, and raised taxes on job creators in a weakening economy. The bill, nevertheless, passed 68-31 in the Senate, and passed in the House despite nearly a quarter of the Democratic Party voting against it.

Unemployment started to go up again by the end of the election year, and it only continued to go up afterwards. Senator Brian Sandoval and Senator Mark Warner put together a package that would give tax credits to businesses to hire more people, and lowering the corporate tax rate while closing loopholes. In spite of Sandoval's gesture of goodwill, Democrats, including the President, saw this as too much of a giveaway to the Republicans, and the bill was voted down.

The only piece of legislation on the agenda signed at the end of the Clinton first year was a moderate education reform piece, allowing payments of student loans to be tied to income. This was another piece of work from Mark Warner, only this time with Senator Marco Rubio. This was a bill that was considered uncontroversial, and both Minority Leader John Cornyn and Speaker John Boehner let their people go free on the issue.

On foreign policy, Clinton followed through on her promise of an activist America. She sent more military officials to the troubled region of Iraq, heeding the call to be in defense of the state of Israel, and sending drones to Syria. The spokesman in the U.S. Senate for non-interventionism, Congressman Justin Amash, gave a highly publicized speech criticizing the Clinton policy across the globe, calling it "ineffective, undiplomatic, and saber rattling at its worst".

Clinton Approval (12/31/17)
50% Approve
45% Disapprove

Elections that year

Maine Special

Governor Eliot Cutler appointed Independent State Rep. James Campbell to Susan Collins Senate seat. However, Campbell proved to be unable to hold the Democrats with him (he chose to caucus with the Democrats), and as a result, they ran a strong candidate in Hannah Pingree. Pingree faced Campbell and Republican State Senator Roger Katz. Katz ran a strong campaign, and thankfully for him, Campbell was taking a larger chunk of the Democrat vote, and in a strong upset, Katz won the special election.

State Senator Roger Katz (R) - 36.2%
State Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) - 35.4%
Interim Senator James Campbell (I) - 24.6%
Others - 3.8%

Virginia

Governor Terry McAuliffe proved to be a surprisingly strong Governor, but even with the surprise, his approvals were fairly middling, holding to a 43-46 Approval-Disapproval ratio. Democrats nominated Attorney General Mark Herring, who faced his Attorney General opponent Mark Obenshain in the general election. Obenshain was not Creigh Deeds, and weighed a very credible bid against Herring. The two Mark's battled, but Obenshain rode the tide of history and defeated Herring in the highly publicized and highly negative race.

Fmr. State Senator Mark Obenshain (R) - 50.8%
Attorney General Mark Herring (D) - 49.2%

New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie left office with a negative approval rating (42-50), but nothing outside the unusual for New Jersey. The Lieutenant Governor at the time was tainted by the Christie scandal, and she did not run for the office. Instead, the primary became a battle between State Senator Michael Doherty of the Conservative wing, and Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. of the Moderate wing. the Kean and Doherty battle went nuclear, and basically eliminated the chances of the Republicans reclaiming Christie's house. Barbara Bunono ran again for Governor, but fell to third place at barely double digits against a battle between Congressman Frank Pallone and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop. Pallone led by large margins at first, but Fulop caught up quickly, and defeated Pallone by less than five points.

Dem Primary
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) - 38.8%
Congressman Frank Pallone (D) - 34.9%
State Senator Barbara Buono (D) - 13.2%
Essex County Executive Joe DiVincevio (D) - 9.8%
Others - 3.3%

Rep Pimary
State Senator Michael J. Doherty (R) - 51.4%
Minority Leader Tom Kean (R) - 44.2%
Others - 4.4%

General Election
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) - 56.8%
State Senator Michael J. Doherty (R) - 41.3%
Others - 1.9%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So Holbrooke survived his 2011 heart aneurysm?

[Maxwell]

So Holbrooke survived his 2011 heart aneurysm?

sh**t, thanks.

[tmthforu94]

Good update! Nice to see Holbrooke resurrected.

[Maxwell]

January - April 2018

First Husband Bill Clinton continues to drag down the Hillary Presidency. Reports of distance between the President and her husband continue to be on frontpages, with Bill living nowhere near the White House (he's actually been located in his offices in Harlem). Now, women are coming out and mentioning their affairs with him. These stories have nowhere near the traction they once did, as Clinton had been known for his indiscretions, but its a constant reminder of the troubled Clinton marriage, and has been a strong fundraiser for Republican candidates.

Negotiations over a new healthcare reform have begun, with Senator Kristin Gillibrand and Senator Mark Udall introducing the bill that would lower the age of Medicare eligibility to 50 and continue to move closer and closer to a universal system. Obamacare reviews, even after years of putting more people on private insurance, was still mixed due to premium costs and certain provisions that have hurt healthcare innovation and have slowed down the production of new healthcare technologies. Republicans are united in their opposition - Even the moderates like Senator Katz, Sandoval, Heller, Capito, and Alexander are demanding conservative reforms to the Healthcare legislation in place before even moving toward a more public system. Senator Katz, along with Conservative Senator Mike Lee and Democratic Senator Allison Lundergan Grimes, has introduced a bill that would repeal the Medical Device tax, fix some of the causes of rising premiums, and give prize funding for researchers. Grimes, however, is also a co-sponsor on the Udall-Gillibrand bill that is being pushed by the administration, so the question is whether or not Katz-Grimes and Udall-Gillibrand are even compatible.

Things were surprisingly quiet on the foreign affairs front. Troops in Iraq found themselves in the middle of fire from all sides, the country continued to be in very poor shape. Clinton's approvals continued to drop due to quagmire in the region, and what's looking more and more required is diplomatic action with Iran to stabilize the region, which is an incredibly unpopular move in terms of support from Independents.

Very early polling of the Presidential race have voters preferring Governor Walker to President Clinton by a margin of 45-42. Obviously it's early, but it's a sign of the declining confidence people have with the Presidency at the moment. Republicans favor Governor Walker to lead their party in 2020 by a huge margin, with only Senator Brian Sandoval of the moderate wing and Congressman Justin Amash of the non-interventionist wing even close to double digits.

Presidential Poll
45% Governor Scott Walker
42% President Hillary Clinton

2020 Republican Primary Poll
62% Governor Scott Walker
9% Senator Brian Sandoval
7% Congressman Justin Amash
4% Senator Tom Cotton
10% Other
8% Undecided

President Clinton Approval (As of the end of April)
44% Approve
47% Disapprove
9% Unsure

[NickCT]

This is really pretty great.  Nice work!!