A Walk in the Park... The Scott Walker Story.

[Maxwell]

A Walk in the Park... The Scott Walker Story.

November 2013

After months of anticipation, things got much worse than the Governor could've possibly imagined. His approvals, while higher than some Governors at the time, were not confidence inspiring, swinging from barely positive to barely negative. His opponents were more relied up and ready than ever after the failed Recall attempt, blaming it on a failed campaign rather than their failed ideas. It had come to the Democrats that it was time for Walker to go, for the sake of the Party's Presidential nominee. That's why they brought out the old and good...

"Our founders fought for our rights, our rights not to be trampled on by a tyrant Government, and right now with Governor Walker's insatiable appetite for destruction, our freedoms are certainly getting trampled on. He doesn't have Wisconsins in mind, he has his wealthy friends and donors in mind. That's why I am announcing I am running to be your Governor under the Democratic line!"

Governor Scott Walker Approval Rating:
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 49%
Unsure: 3%

Former Senator Russ Feingold Favorable Rating:
Favorable: 54%
Unfavorable: 34%
Unsure: 12%

Governor's Race:
Former Senator Russ Feingold (D): 49%
Governor Scott Walker (R): 46%
Undecided: 5%

Feingold was defined by some to be a Wisconsin hero. A star. Someone who would be hard to beat. He barely lost in 2010 against Ron Johnson, a man with enough money and enough skills to beat Feingold in the strongest Republican year imaginable. Yet, Feingold left that race with a lot of good will from the people of Wisconsin, and embodied the opposite of the divisive attitude of the Walker Administration. In deed, it looked like a race that could not be won. But somehow, it was...

"The Democrats want back in power to put the unions back in power. They don't want to hear the voice of the American people. That's why I have been pushing for the needed reforms I have pushed as Governor, made plenty of unpopular decisions, because thats what Governors do. I recognize the challenge ahead of me, and Senator Feingold is a good man, but he is fully with the Party that wants to give power back to the power-brokers, and I won't let him do that."

However, Walker did have some reason to hope: Governor Chris Christie, a friend and ally on reforms that both Governors have decidedly pushed in education, won re-election handsomely against State Rep Barbara Buono 65-35. As well, New Jersey gained more Republican seats than the last time anybody could remember. In addition, in a bitterly fought match, Ken Cuccinelli prevailed over Terry McAuliffe 49-45, after McAuliffe was caught receiving unaccounted for gifts from Donors and Lobbyists. Things looked a bit more up for the GOP because of these wins, even though for most of the year the Party had been scrambling to find an identity.

There was hope in the air. Hope, for Scott Walker.

[Maxwell]

March 2014

With some backlash coming toward Walker's education policies, the Feingold capitalized immediately, and had since gained innumerably in the polls. For the first time, Feingold crossed th 50 point line. Additionally, the Paullite primary challenge started to gain some momentum for the first time. Eric Hovde, the man who pulled within 3 points of Tommy Thompson in a Senate Primary, had been trailing by over 50 points for months to Scott Walker. But with some backlash from both sides coming, Hovde managed to poll above 30 percent for the first time. People were starting to listen.

"Governor Walker has done some good reforms, but they are far away from what we need here in Wisconsin. We are trapped by these liberal policies, and with some consideration the Governor made toward Medicaid Expansion makes it clear that he isn't here for our interests. It's time a true conservative ran the state of Wisconsin"

Wisconsin Governor Poll as of 3/14:
Former Senator Russ Feingold: 51%
Governor Scott Walker: 46%
Undecided: 5%

Governor Scott Walker Approval:
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 50%
Unsure: 5%

Republican Primary:
Governor Scott Walker: 61%
Businessman Eric Hovde: 32%
Undecided: 7%

On the stump, rather than shy away from his controversial policies, Walker stood up for his beliefs, pushing School Choice as the right choice. Governor Walker won the praise of some of his adversaries for this stance, but most of them called his policies out of the range and unfitting for the state of Wisconsin. Indeed, things were not looking good in the month of March.

However, it wasn't all a loss. Governor Walker, now, has lowered Wisconsin unemployment to 6%. Economically, things were looking up, business were returning to Wisconsin that had left during the 2008 Economic Collapse. And Walker knew when opportunity was looking his way.

"Both of these opponents of mine are claiming that economically Wisconsin is still in the dirt. We have had dramatic improvements in our economic outlook. Our unemployment is now 6%, and heading in a clearly downward direction. We are ahead of the nation in job creation and job innovation. Jobs are coming back to the state of Wisconsin. We can't turn back now!"

Before this race, Scott Walker was considered Presidential Material, and some still do, but at this moment pollsters like PPP and Quinnipiac stopped including Governor Walker. With the potential loss creating sheer terror for his future career, the uncertainty caused most pollsters to take him off their Presidential lists. The Governors ambition was still there, but he understood their reasons. It was time to go on the attack...

[Maxwell]

June 2014

During the Summer months, Walker was building up a machine. Several ads were already out, promoting Governor Walker's accomplishments. They pushed his approvals a little, but not much effect on the race. It was clear one thing: Walker had to lower Feingold's almost universally favorable outlook. However, it was going to have to be nimble, a lot of moves could backfire on him. He didn't want to do what Mitch McConnell was currently doing (McConnell is now down 40-48 to Alison Lundergan Grimes). An opening wasn't there until the Middle of June.

"Look, I think the State's budgets should be expanded massively. I think we need more Government jobs, I think I agree with the sentiment of President Obama, you know, you didn't build that..."

You know that moment when a soundbite is heard that will be continually played over and over again? This is one of those moments. Normally, a reference to Obama actually helps Feingold, whose numbers are loosely connected to Obama's approval rating in Wisconsin. But, in this case, It adds to an argument that Walker was trying to make that Feingold is to Wisconsin voters left. Now he had a soundbite to match that. The outcry from that clip caused Feingolds numbers to fall, and for the first time in this race, Walker was tied with the Former Senator.

Wisconsin Governor Poll as of 6/14:
Former Senator Russ Feingold: 48%
Governor Scott Walker: 48%
Undecided: 4%

Governor Scott Walker Approval:
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 46%
Unsure: 5%

Former Senator Russ Feingold Favorable Rating:
Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 40%
Unsure: 8%

Meanwhile, the Primary race only got more contentious. While Hovde still trailed by over twenty points, his following was gaining traction. He recently received an endorsement from Senator Rand Paul and Senator Marco Rubio, two Presidential contenders. Walker was backed by fellow Governors Mike Pence and Chris Christie, two conservative Governors. However, Christie was still rebounding from accusations of fellow Republicans that he wasn't conservative enough, his endorsement came almost as a negative to the Wisconsin Republican electorate. Hovde's rhetoric, as well, was getting more vicious, accusing Walker of holding back Republicans in the state and giving in to Democrats on many issues. Walker did not understand what he was trying to say, so they scheduled a debate for June, which is when, among staunchly conservative Republicans, Walker's numbers began to turn around.

"My friend, Eric Hovde, has never been in the Government sector. He has run for office, but never has he dealt with the bureaucracy. And I sincerely doubt, and I think you do as well, that he could be as effective as a Conservative Governor as I can. And unlike Hovde, my policies have brought serious reform to Wisconsin Government and we see those solutions every day. I have worked hard for Wisconsin, and I hope Wisconsinites realize I have."

Republican Primary Pre-Debate:
Governor Scott Walker: 60%
Businessman Eric Hovde: 36%
Undecided: 4%

Republican Primary Post-Debate:
Governor Scott Walker: 66%
Businessman Eric Hovde: 32%
Undecided: 2%

Hovde sounded unprepared on most issues except for ones dealing with the economy, which Walker countered with the idea that the economy is clearly improving. Walker had his opponent nailed on every point. This debate ended Hovde's momentum and was a bit of a sign of Walker's momentum into the future. Shortly thereafter, Marco Rubio could not be seen by reporters; when caught, he almost re-canted his support for Hovde, saying that Hovde had proved himself unready to be Governor. After that, things no longer looked possible, nor probable, for the Businessman. Two weeks after Rubio recanted his support, so did Hovde, endorsing Governor Walker.

"I'd like to announce my withdraw from the Wisconsin Governors race. I came into it arguing for a point, for a cause of economic sanity, and I think I have won over minds. That's all I wanted. Governor Walker is the clear choice of this race, and I will be endorsing him for Governor of Wisconsin. We can't let Feingold, who was one of the most Liberal Senators back when he was in office, change the fabric of the Wisconsin constitution and destroy business. Walker is our only choice."

[Maxwell]

October 2014

As the September months came to a close, one thing became clearer and clearer; Walker may very well survive this challenge. The Governors approval ratings were higher than ever, the results of his work were showing around the state. The unemployment had shrunk to 5.2%, the lowest since the last time anyone could remember. While the people still liked Feingold by a large margin, his follies as a canddiate became clear. His donation limitations made it difficult for the candidate to raise money against Walker, who had a well-funded machine. Obama offered Feingold for help, but Feingold wanted to run a truly grassroots campaign: an interesting choice, but a mistake. The polls started to show victory in sight for the Governor.

Governor Scott Walker Approval:
52% Approve
47% Disapprove
1% Not Sure

Former Senator Russ Feingold Favorables:
55% Favorable
42% Unfavorable
3% Not Sure

Wisconsin Governor Poll (Among Register Voters):
48% Feingold
48% Walker
1% Other
3% Undecided

Wisconsin Governor Poll (Among Likely Voters):
49% Walker
46% Feingold
2% Other
3% Undecided

The scene is the middle of October. The final debate amongst the candidates. Most of these debates were at small venues and were town halls with both candidates there. Sometimes it got vicious, but a lot of times it was civil, as if both candidates were there just to be there. However, now the debate was going to get heated. This is the one people are paying attention to, and both Feingold and Walker had a lot on their minds when it came to closing statements.

"Governor, you have a passive aggressive attitude towards governing. You go after unions, you go after teachers, you go after everybody. It's time to stop the bullying government that you have put in place. It's time for a government that cares for its citizens, not one that has an iron fist for its citizens. I believe in the future of Wisconsin, you believe in nothing."

"You're listing my policies as if I do the policies I do for no reason. Clearly there is a reason. I believe in a functioning, efficient government that can do what it needs to do. Most importantly, I believe a limited government is best. And what Wisconsin was was a bloated behemoth, and I cut it down. I don't regret any decisions I made, because ultimately you can't just take your ball and go home, you have to fix the problem and sometimes fixing problems hurts but it hurts a little in the short term for a lot more fun in the long term. I don't Wisconsin to be California in the long term, I want Wisconsin to be Wisconsin."

What came from the coverage of the debate was that it was mostly a draw, as both campaigns came with detailed proposals and attacks on one another. However, one thing seemed to be what people remembered from the debate: Feingold didn't seem as likable as he used to be. After this point, what used to be Feingold's strongest point, his likability, seemed to fade, and so did his favorability numbers. This is going to be a close one...

[Maxwell]

November 2014

The Final Polls were coming in... Scott with a narrow lead! Among Likely and Registered voters, Scott held a 1 and 3 point leads over Russ Feingold. The strategy seemed to be working. However, understandably, the campaign was on the edge of their seats.

Governor Scott Walker Approval:
53% Approve
46% Disapprove
1% Unsure

Former Senator Russ Feingold Favorables:
52% Favorable
44% Unfavorable
8% Unsure

Wisconsin Governor Poll (Among Registered Voters):
49% Walker
48% Feingold
1% Other
2% Unsure

Wisconsin Governor Poll (Among Likely Voters):
50% Walker
47% Feingold
0% Other
3% Unsure

They waited on the results. The first relevant percentage of the vote in began to shake them...

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race: (20% of Precincts In)
Former Senator Russ Feingold: 49.9%
Governor Scott Walker: 48.1%
Others: 2.0%

While the campaign acknowledged a lot of the first areas called in this race were areas that were more favorable to Feingold, the worrying didn't stop. What if all this time invested was for nothing? Walker at that point began to question his reforms in the Wisconsin Government. He would accept the loss if he did (he wrote the concession speech first), but would feel badly if he did. He got a call from his friend, former Puerto Rico Governor Luis Furtuno, who told him not to worry. Luis Furtuno had experienced the pounding that many expected Walker to get, and all because of the reforms he had made in Puerto Rico. Furtuno told the Governor that a lot of his ideas in Wisconsin inspired him in Puerto Rico. Wishing him luck in his future endeavors, Furtuno gave hope to Walker. And almost seemed like that hope, helped Walker through his race.

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race: (45% of Precincts In)
Governor Scott Walker: 49.2%
Former Senator Russ Feingold: 49.0%
Others: 1.8%

With more returns coming in, Walker returned to the lead. He barely held on to his lead, but through the rest of the night, Governor Walker closely lead over the Former Senator. Many in Walker headquarters wanted to pop champagne, but Walker held them back, the race wasn't over yet. The Feingold camp wasn't celebrating either, but rather, stressing for the final call. They would wait until late late that night to get that call. When they finally did, it was for the one who looked to return to office all along...

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race: (100% of Precincts In)
Governor Scott Walker: 49.7%
Former Senator Russ Feingold: 48.8%
Others: 1.5%



Governor Scott Walker will be re-elected narrowly over Former Senator Russ Feingold

Meanwhile in the rest of the country:

Governors Races:
Alabama - Bentley 56%, Benjamin 44%
Alaska - Parnell 66%, French 28%, Libertarian 6%
Arizona - Bennett 52%, Stanton 47%
Arkansas - Halter 50.1%, Hutchinson 49.9%
California - Brown 60%, Donnelly 38%
Colorado - Hickenlooper 53%, Gessler 46%
Connecticut - Foley 54%, Malloy 45%
Florida - Crist 57%, Scott 42%
Georgia - Deal 54%, Reed 45%
Hawaii - Djou 50.2%, Abercrombie 49.8%
Idaho - Otter 78%, Chaney 22%
Illinois - Daley 58%, Brady 40%
Kansas - Brownback 52%, Brewer 44%
Maine - Cutler 34%, LePage 33%, Michaud 28%
Maryland - Brown 59%, George 40%
Massachussets - Capuano 55%, Tisei 43%
Michigan - Schauer 54%, Snyder 44%
Minnesota - Dayton 49%, Thompson 35%, Horner 16%
Nebraska - Janssen 52%, Beutler 45%
Nevada - Sandoval 58%, Buckley 38%
New Hampshire - Hassan 60%, Smith 38%
New Mexico - Martinez 55%, King 44%
New York - Cuomo 68%, Wilson 25%
Ohio - Kasich 54%, Fitzgerald 42%
Oklahoma - Fallin 59%, Savage 39%
Oregon - Kitzhaber 57%, Hanna 42%
Pennsylvania -Schwartz 52%, Corbett 46%
Rhode Island - Taveras 48%, Fung 43%, Block 8%
South Carolina - Haley 49%, Sheheen 48%
South Dakota - Daugaard 67%, Weise 32%
Tennessee - Haslam 58%, Fitzhugh 40%
Texas - Abbott 53%, Davis 46%
Vermont - Shumlin 95%
Wisconsin - Walker 50%, Feingold 49%
Wyoming - Mead 64%, Peterson 32%


Senate Races:
Alabama - Sessions 70%, Swanson 28%
Alaska - Treadwell 49%, Begich 47%
Arkansas - Cotton 53%, Pryor 42%, Kennedy 5%
Colorado - Udall 56%, Norton 43%
Delaware - Coons 63%, Kovach 35%
Georgia - Nunn 49.9%, Broun 49.8%
Hawaii - Schatz (D) 46%, Hanabusa (I) 43%, Cavasso (R) 10%
Idaho - Risch 66%, Archuleta 32%
Illinois - Durbin 69%, Walsh 31%
Iowa - Braley 52%, Schultz 45%
Kansas - Roberts 57%, Parkinson 43%
Kentucky - Grimes 50%, McConnell 48%
Louisana - Landrieu 53%, Landry 47%
Maine - Collins 64%, Mills 35%
Massachussets - Markey 59%, Gomez 40%
Michigan - Peters 51%, Rogers 46%
Minnesota - Franken 56%, Stanek 42%
Mississippi - Reeves 54%, Hood 45%
Montana - Schweitzer 48%, Rasicot 47%, Cox 4%
Nebraska - Osborn 56%, Robak 44%
New Hampshire - Shaheen 51%, Bass 48%
New Jersey - Booker 62%, Lonegan 37%
New Mexico - Udall 46%, Johnson 30%, Pearce 22%
North Carolina - Tillis 50.5%, Hagan 49.5%
Oklahoma - Lamb 57%, Taylor 41%
Oregon - Merkley 61%, Starr 37%
Rhode Island - Reed 100%
South Carolina - Bright 52%, Colbert-Busch 47%
South Carolina (Special) - Scott 65%, Stamper 33%
South Dakota - Rounds 75%, Weiland 22%
Tennessee - Alexander 73%, Crim 25%
Texas - Cornyn 55%, Castro 45%
Virginia - Warner 100%
West Virginia - Capito 64%, Davis 34%
Wyoming - Enzi (R) 58%, Cheney (I) 33%, Others 9%

Republicans gained seats in the Senate, were net neutral in the house, and lost some Gubernatorial seats. Certainly looked better than the beating that some pundits were expecting in closer races. Republicans even gained some unexpected seats (North Carolina looked done as soon as Tillis was nominated). Walker saw these results as a sign of things to come. He knew he was ready...

[Maxwell]

Here is what I would guess the county map to be. Use it if you'd like.

I wanted to make a map but wasn't quite sure what it would look like, Thank you!

[Maxwell]

Nice little timeline you made here, a very good read!

I don't think I am done quite yet, 2016 is coming up

[Maxwell]

June 2015

The Time has come...

With the Ames Iowa Straw Poll approaching, Governor Walker was preparing forces. He had prepared for a Presidential run as soon as he was re-elected Governor. Frankly, at that point, it seemed like the state had a lot of self-managing: with unemployment lowering, jobs being created, it didn't seem like his job was as necessary to him. Instead, he was pushing his ideas around the country, going to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, looking and talking to donors. He knew he had funds. Polls showed him low, but he knew he could rise. He was going to announce today...

"I told you earlier on to believe in Wisconsin again. We faced immense challenges, stepping stones in our way, but I believe we accomplished everything in our face. It's time for me to face a bigger calling. The nation needs real leadership, from President Obama we haven't gotten the leadership we deserve. From Hillary or any other Democrat, we won't either. Republicans are doubting themselves, thinking of moving toward some sort of Democrat-lite message. I believe in Wisconsin we have the perfect picture that America should follow. That's why I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States!"

National Polling:
Senator Rand Paul - 25%
Governor Chris Christie - 21%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 18%
Senator Ted Cruz - 13%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 6%
Governor Scott Walker - 5%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 4%
Former Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 1%
Undecided - 5%

Iowa Poll:
Senator Rand Paul - 35%
Senator Ted Cruz - 17%
Governor Chris Christie - 9%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 9%
Governor Scott Walker - 8%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 8%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 5%
Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 1%
Undecided - 6%

New Hampshire Poll:
Governor Chris Christie: 26%
Senator Rand Paul: 22%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 16%
Senator Ted Cruz - 9%
Governor Scott Walker - 6%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 4%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 4%
Congressman Allen West - 1%
Other - 4%
Undecided - 8%

South Carolina Poll:
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 24%
Senator Rand Paul - 21%
Senator Ted Cruz - 15%
Governor Chris Christie - 14%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 10%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 4%
Governor Scott Walker - 3%
Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 1%
Undecided - 6%

Early on in the race, Scott Walker looked like an underdog: The top tier included Former Governor Jeb Bush, the ultimate establishment favorite, Chris Christie, a hero of the moderate faction, and many also in the establishment who point to Christie's favorable numbers with Democrats, and Rand Paul, a hero of Conservatives, Paleo-cons and Libertarians. Also, Ted Cruz had a strong grip on Rand Paul stragglers, believing Rand to be too libertarian for their tastes. However, the Walker campaign saw flaws in all of these candidates: Bush was the member of the family who had a President, George W. Bush, who was judged by many as an unmitigated disaster. Christie, while his numbers were favorable to many who wanted to win, was too friendly with Democrats, with some calling him a RINO. Paul was decided by the lot that he was too crazy, and would lose immediately as the general election dawned. However, most had fears about Cruz: Some thought a loss in every state was in store if Cruz had the nomination. That's partially why Walker entered the race: there seemed to be no clear consensus, and he saw himself as the consensus man.

As the race began, many reported impressively about Walker's 1st Quarter fundraising numbers. They shouldn't have been surprised after seeing his Governors race, but these numbers put him in the top three. He beat out Bush, which shocked many in the establishment GOP. Ahead of him was Christie and Paul. Christie used his many connections along with his wide popularity to earn massively, and Paul had a key grassroots fundraising ability.

1st Quarter Fundraising Numbers:
Rand Paul - $16.2 Million
Chris Christie - $12.1 Million
Scott Walker - $11.2 Million
Jeb Bush - $9.3 Million
Ted Cruz - $9.1 Million
Bobby Jindal - $4.8 Million
Allen West - $2.2 Million
Rick Santorum - $1.8 Million

Many were wondering if those bottom three candidates even had a chance anymore after the publishing of these numbers. All three stayed in, for at least the June Month, but begun to consider amongst their campaign as to the option of leaving the race. If wasn't over for Governor Jindal earlier, it looked pretty dead now.

Among Democrats it looked fairly clear: Hillary Clinton was going to be the nominee. She decided to wait a bit to announce, but many democrats pushed her and she announced in June of 2015. Everything was prepared to perfection, the line up of people behind her, the crowds were massive, and the press was certainly there. This was a star showing.

"Republicans have stood for obstruction time and time again, and what we shouldn't do is reward their policies with a Presidency. I believe it is time we had a President that represented the people that she works for, that works hard and fights for every man, woman and child. Believe me, I am ready, now more than ever. I am announcing my run for President of the United States, and I believe we will take it!"

With Obama's approvals hovering at around 42%, Americans were looking ready for another administration. However, Hillary's numbers seemed to remain higher still: She had the political skills to rise above an unpopular President, and Republicans were finding it rather hard to come up and beat that.

Head-To-Heads!
51% Hillary - 41% Paul, +10 Hillary
48% Hillary - 44% Christie, +4 Hillary
51% Hillary - 45% Bush, +6 Hillary
53% Hillary - 35% Cruz, +18 Hillary
52% Hillary - 31% Santorum, +21 Hillary
48% Hillary - 38% Walker, +10 Hillary
52% Hillary - 36% Jindal, +16 Hillary
54% Hillary - 29% West, +25 Hillary

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
53% Favorable
45% Unfavorable
2% Unsure

It looked like a long shot for anyone not named Hillary Clinton to become President. There wasn't much hope, even in the Christie campaign. However, there was some hope... Hope... in the Walker campaign.

[Maxwell]

August 2015 - Ames Iowa Straw Poll

Winding up to the Ames Iowa Straw Poll some things became clear: For one, conservatives were not having it. Christie would not do. After a recent press conference where he opened up with a Bill Clinton quote, Conservative voices have been raging against the Governor of New Jersey. His numbers remained steady, as many of his fans are moderates, but it became all of a sudden very clear that he would not leave the 15-22% range ever again. Christie withdrew his name from the Iowa Straw Poll as did Jeb Bush.

Another thing was Rand Paul's lack of organization. While Rand Paul had the most money coming in, he did not exactly know how to use it. The Paul campaign didn't understand Ron's straw poll mechanism, and while many thought he would win the Straw Poll, internal sources within the Paul campaign thought him winning would be a shock. Many campaign heads were screaming amongst themselves wondering... what are we doing?? Rand didn't seem to lead these people.

This opened up room in the Iowa Straw Poll. Between Walker and Cruz, it looked like it was going to be a tough battle. However, Walker had an advantage. Unlike Cruz, Walker had a neighboring state. Organizing supporters from nearby the Iowa Straw Poll, Walker began to bus people to the Straw Poll. This became a turnout competiton, and one Walker managed to pull out in the end.

Iowa Straw Poll:
Scott Walker - 32.9%
Ted Cruz - 28.2%
Rand Paul - 17.0%
Bobby Jindal - 10.4%
Allen West - 8.2%
WI: Jeb Bush - 1.5%
Rick Santorum - 1.2%
WI: Chris Christie - 0.4%
WI: Nick Nolte - 0.2%

August National Polls b/Ames:
Senator Rand Paul - 22%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 21%
Governor Chris Christie - 18%
Senator Ted Cruz - 15%
Governor Scott Walker - 7%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 5%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 4%
Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 4%

August National Polls Af/Ames:
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 20% (-1)
Senator Rand Paul - 19% (-3)
Governor Chris Christie - 18%
Governor Scott Walker - 15% (+8)
Senator Ted Cruz - 13% (-2)
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 4% (-1)
Governor Bobby Jindal - 4%
Congressman Allen West - 1% (-1)
Other - 2%
Undecided - 4%

August Iowa Polls b/Ames:
Senator Rand Paul - 30%
Senator Ted Cruz - 19%
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 12%
Governor Scott Walker - 11%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 7%
Governor Chris Christie - 6%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 6%
Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 5%

August Iowa Poll a/Ames:
Senator Rand Paul - 25% (-5)
Senator Ted Cruz - 19%
Governor Scott Walker - 17% (+6)
Former Senator Rick Santorum - 10% (-2)
Governor Chris Christie - 7% (+1)
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 7%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 7% (+1)
Congressman Allen West - 2%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 4%

With the results of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll announced, the poll changes devastated a couple of candidates. Rand Paul's immense lead in Iowa became vulnerable, he lost the lead in the national polls. It crushed any dreams Former Senator Rick Santorum may have had, he would announce about two months later that he would withdraw his candidacy for President. Bobby Jindal would stay in the race, but all pundits would ignore the candidate after this final, fatal bungling of the Iowa Straw Poll. Scott Walker came out of the Straw Poll with a clenched fist of victory. It was the only time he truly felt confident about his chances.

Through the summer months, he started to gain in fundraising compared to the other candidates. His stump was improving while constant stories of the other candidates attacking one another started to build up. Walker kept to his devices, campaigning and raising money hard, and talking about his record in Wisconsin. In the midsts of a debate with Bush and Paul almost violently arguing over immigration policy, Walker had a calm, collected, almost Presidential-like way of talking through the issue: agreeing with the Rubio deal in principle, but wished the plan focused more on border security. His numbers continued to grow.

[Maxwell]

Governor Walker trailed in most polls in the National race, but some polls showed him as competitive, even as he fell a bit in the National race after his Iowa Straw Poll results. However, Walker began to grow more and more in Iowa. Right before the primary, Walker tied with Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, who were in an ad war against one another. Many thought the Iowa caucus was a total toss-up, very few predicted this result:

Walker Wins Iowa!

Iowa Caucus:
Governor Scott Walker - 37.2%
Senator Rand Paul - 20.2%
Senator Ted Cruz - 18.5%
Governor Chris Christie - 10.2%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 8.6%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 3.8%
Former Congressman Allen West - 1.0%
Others - 0.5%

Some were shocked by Jeb Bush's vote, by how low it was. Some were shocked by how many Iowans voted for Christie, a number that deemed well for him in the New Hampshire primary. However, the number that was deemed the most shocking was, in fact, Walker's massive win. He laped the field, defeating Rand Paul by 17 points. This caused Governor Walker to shift to the top of the polls. On top of that, it gained him two key endorsements: Governor John Kasich of Ohio and Congressman Charlie Bass of New Hampshire. Kasich had been on the fence between Chris Christie and Scott Walker for months, but seeing Iowa caused him to have a change of heart. Bass was stuck on whether Walker could win, it was clear from Iowa he could win, which helped cause this result in the New Hampshire primary...

Walker wins the New Hampshire Primary!

New Hampshire Primary:
Governor Scott Walker - 26.8%
Governor Chris Christie - 25.9%
Senator Rand Paul - 21.2%
Governor Jeb Bush - 12.2%
Senator Ted Cruz - 8.3%
Governor Bobby Jindal - 2.1%
Others - 3.5%

Jindal's campaign had been doomed for a long time, but it was certainly time to end the campaign now, and this is when he decided to give Walker his endorsement. Jindal had even thought of not running if Walker had run, but decided to try anyway. Jindal gave his full-throated support for Walker in South Carolina.

"Governor Scott Walker has actually applied Conservative values. He has fought everyday for Conservatives, and has brought forth change. Most of these candidates are either Senators who contribute everyday to the gridlock, or are moderates who contribute to the idea that conservatism doesn't work, and with Walker on the helm, it does! I believe in Scott Walker, and you should too!"

In South Carolina, many didn't have hope for Walker: He trailed Ted Cruz by 15 still. Cruz had, by far, the strongest operation in the state, with Rand Paul in second and Walker in third. With the Bush campaign in shambles, he was putting all of his chips on the Florida Campaign in order to survive the nomination process. The Christie camp wasn't actually quite sure where to go next, Nevada looked possible, but Sandoval was being coy over who he was going to endorse, and the Governors endorsement was going to be key. Indeed, Walker had been courting it too, and with that momentum, he could take that too.

The strangest, and hardest, situation was the Rand Paul campaign. Slipping hard in the polls and in money, the Libertarian-ish Republican had to survive without too many endorsements. He was still in second and third in many polls, but many polls showed that in a lot of states, there was no way he could actually compete. Even in Kentucky, he only led by 2 points. Quite simply, it was the Paul disorder: there was a strong base, but there is nobody outside of that base he would want to be associated with it. That started to become startlingly clear for Senator Paul.

As for the Walker camp, they were worried still about Senator Cruz. He could use the South Carolina win to promote his conservative standing and paint Walker as the moderate in the race. They had to beat Cruz, and beat Cruz quickly. However, it didn't look like it was going to be possible. Only time will tell...

[Maxwell]

Nearing the South Carolina primary, Scott Walker gained fairly quickly on Ted Cruz in the polls. Cruz had a lot of endorsements out of South Carolina, heavy campaigning from Jim DeMint and Tim Scott, along with the whole South Carolina Congressional Congregation (Minus the Democrat, of course). However, things started to look up for Walker. He received an endorsement from Governor Nikki Haley after the New Hampshire primary. It looked like the cards were stacking in Walker's favor for the South Carolina primary, and then this happened...

Brian Williams:"This question goes to all of the candidates, but first to Governor Walker: Would you oppose a tax increase on any instance."

Scott Walker: "Well, in 95% of instances, a tax increase is not necessary, and if anything, in most cases a tax cut is necessary. However, we need to be reasonable here: if we are having chronic problems with debt, I am not against using revenues to pull us out of that hole."

Brian Williams: "And you, Senator Cruz?"

Ted Cruz: "Of course I oppose any tax increase. Chances are, government spending is always the problem, not the lack of taxation. I think Scott Walker is beginning to sound a lot like Barack Obama."

Walker deflected the moment at the debate. but Cruz created a hard hitting ad out of it, pointing to Walker's record as not a perfect Conservative model, and pointing to his Senate record as otherwise. This worked with South Carolina voters, and when the votes came in...

Ted Cruz wins the South Carolina Primary!

South Carolina Primary:
Senator Ted Cruz: 38.8%
Governor Scott Walker: 26.4%
Senator Rand Paul: 14.6%
Former Governor Jeb Bush: 10.1%
Governor Chris Christie: 7.9%
Others: 2.2%

With the Florida primary coming up, Walker couldn't risk looking like a loser. Jeb Bush had a 25 point lead even after Bush's fourth place showing in South Carolina, so winning wasn't an option, Walker's camp thought. However, Walker could come close and declare a comeback kid. So he decided to put some resources into Florida. Not all of his resources, but he decided to put some behind the Florida primary. Bush was floundering, so the Governor was desperately trying to defend the state from Walker. However, Bush's hope for the nomination fell into the deep dark waters when he made this utterance...

"Well I mean let's be mindful of the illegal immigration into this country I believe we need to be concerned that we are letting too many in But our minds need be more concerned on the deficits that we run They are too high Let us not sink America!"

Bush sounded utterly confused, and many thought from that moment on that Bush wasn't ready. He certainly didn't improve that in the Florida Primary debate, and he sounded confused there too. It's almost as if he lost his positions and forgot where he stood. The polish was gone, and as a result...

Bush holds onto the Florida Primary by a single point, Walker surprises

Florida Primary:
Former Governor Jeb Bush: 36.1%
Governor Scott Walker: 34.8%
Senator Ted Cruz: 15.8%
Governor Chris Christie: 7.8%
Senator Rand Paul: 5.1%
Others: 0.4%

Bush dropped out right after that primary and made no endorsement. He understood that not winning the Florida Primary by a large large margin meant the end of his campaign. The story out the Florida Primary was that Walker came surprisingly close. And he looked stronger than ever and closer than ever. Meanwhile, with other candidates, Ted Cruz was looking toward Super Tuesday, building up his resources in the South, and skipping the Nevada Caucuses and Maine Caucuses. Nevada and Maine were prime targets for comebacks for Christie and Paul. Paul had a tiny lead in Nevada, but the state had a history of under-polling the Pauls, and Christie was competitive still in Maine, albeit his wide lead had been sinking since Walker's win in New Hampshire. The map was unclear for all of those candidates, but Walker simply had to steamroll. It was almost as if Walker were already the nominee...

[Maxwell]

After this point, the Walker camp is concerned about a Cruz resurgence, but they actually tend to cruise through the rest of the primaries. With Christie's third place showing in Nevada, he endorses Scott Walker for President, clearing the big moderate group before Super Tuesday. After that, it was a fairly easy win for Scott Walker. There were moments when some in the press thought the Cruz campaign was about to go to war and start making some serious momentum, but Cruz's already limited conservative appeal continued to be flanked by Rand Paul's refusal to leave the race, causing Cruz to lose states that were somewhat winnable like Missouri and Virginia.  After Cruz's extremely narrow win in his home state Texas (39.8-39.2-15), his candidacy was deemed negligible and Walker won all states after that.

Governor Scott Walker - 58%
Senator Ted Cruz - 22%
Senator Rand Paul - 12%
Former Governor Jeb Bush - 3%
Governor Chris Christie - 2%
Scattered Others - 3%

As Republicans coalesced around Governor Walker, polls showed him still trailing Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Her campaign faced a minor challenge from Martin O'Malley, who she easily picked off after beating him by 40 points in Iowa. Her campaign had extremely strong fundraising numbers and even a retiring Senator John McCain not so subtley praising her candidacy.

Bob Scheiffer: "John McCain, what are your thoughts on the President race as it stands right now, from your standing."

John McCain: "Well, let me be clear by saying I think Walker is a capable nominee. And I think it's just not fair. I think Hillary Clinton is probably the strongest person the Democrats would put out, a person who I have deep respect for, and a personal relationship with that I think will also mend with other Senators"

Bob Scheiffer: "Is that an endorsement?"

John McCain: "Well, not quite, I will be making an endorsement much later, but I would like to remind the world that I am a life-long Republican, and will always be a Republican."

PPP Polls:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton - 49%
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker - 41%
Others - 3%
Undecided - 7%

Rasmussen Polls:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton - 47%
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker - 42%
Others - 4%
Undecided - 7%

Walker's camp didn't have much tolerance for that. Walker booked an appearance later on to combat McCain's constant undermining of the campaign in the press. In McCain's office, there was something calmly aware about McCain and what he was doing. When Walker stormed in, it was almost expected. Walker gave McCain a piece of his mind about his appearance on Face the Nation, and McCain replied softly, "I don't care". Walker had a puzzled expression, as McCain explained his liberation from GOP politics, and his tire of the ever increasing extremities of the caucus. Walker still worked the old Senator for his endorsement, and he got it, for the promise that he would stand up to the Isolationist wing every now and then. Walker agreed to it, feeling his foreign policy mood was kind of a mold and he wasn't really an expert on the subject. McCain gave him an endorsement and signed on as a Foreign Policy expert for the Walker team. In order to back the Rand Paul wing of the Party, he also talked to Justin Amash on privacy law and decided to take up the anti-privacy invasion wing of the party.

Walker team at this point was looking for a Vice President. Many conservatives began to worry that Walker still couldn't win, even after making his lightning round win across the country to become the nominee. In order to make it, Walker would have to make a bolder pick for VP. The Neo-Con wing of the Party became tiresome of the isolationist wing, as had the isolationist wing of the neo-con wing, but part of Walker's candidacy was that he was able to unite those wings due to his molding views on foreign policy. Therefore, isolationists wouldn't be so willing to bolt the party if Walker picked a neo-con. This opened his book to all kinds of candidates: top of the list though was Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte was a Senator who, despite a lot of expectations as a future big candidate, decided to lay low. She was, among other things, growing into a more legislative role. She joined McCain on many foreign policy issues, but was a conservative on most other issues. However, her views gained more and more respect among New Hampshire voters. Walker knew, if he was going to go head to head with Clinton, he had to go bold.

Hillary Clinton picked out her VP nominee very soon after Walker became the nominee to blunt the blow. She went with an expert in domestic policy, someone who took a big role as a progressive fighter. Her pick was Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, someone who she was reluctant to pick, but felt was the right person to go with due to some issues with the base turnout. She was more pleased the minute after she announced him as the pick when she found out how good he was on the stump.

Hillary Clinton VP pick is Sherrod Brown!



"Do you really think Scott Walker would've turned around this economy on a national level the way Barack Obama did? We have had 8 years of prosperity and reform and Republicans are too stuck up to understand that. We need real change, and Obama has brought that, and Hillary Clinton will give us more of that!"

This was going to make Walker's win even tougher: Brown was someone who could hold on to Ohio even if Clinton narrowly lost the popular vote. The electoral map looked a little tricky for Governor Scott Walker. But the campaign nevertheless was optimistic: if they could beat the most popular figure in Wisconsin, they could at least try to go after the most popular figure in America.

[Maxwell]

Obviously Walker is going to win the election, which is a bummer, but... Sherrod Brown

Don't be so sure, Maybe Walker wins later on...

[Maxwell]

Ayotte: Political Corruption at it's worst

Leading up to the GOP Convention, Walker still wasn't quite sure what to do with the VP ticket. They looked at Governor Chris Christie, he checked out, and he polled the best among VP candidates against Clinton/Brown, but many conservatvies also said they would not turn out for a Walker/Christie ticket. Some of those conservatives include Senator Ted Cruz, who had been talking and pressuring GOP delegates and the Walker camp. Cruz played very much the Jesse Helms role in stomping out moderate VP picks. Ayotte seemed like a concensus candidate, and Walker liked that about her, because it reflected how he managed to be the GOP nominee. That night, on August of 2016, he was ready to pick her.

However, something deadly came up on Senator Ayotte that destroyed her chances of being the Vice Presidential nominee. It turned out she had taken direct checks from military industrial companies in exchange for votes on certain pieces of legislation, and writing of pieces of legislation. The details of the scandal emerged rather quickly, and sank her re-election numbers. She announced that she would leave the Senate race in New Hampshire, leaving a big hole in the race against Governor Maggie Hassan. NH Republicans held a convention to fill the spot and decided to go with staunch conservative Ovide Lamontage, her former Republican opponent for Governor. The whole ordeal was a disaster and Walker moved away quickly from any speculation of Senator Ayotte.

This made Walker's decision much more difficult. His top names were Governor Chris Christie, who he was aware of the risks, but also noted how much the two got along, Governor John Kasich, whose endorsement helped him upset in New Hampshire and whose reputation was still that of a conservative, and Senator Dean Heller, a moderate in the Senate who could help throw Nevada to the Republicans. There was one that was mentioned often in the media, Governor Susana Martinez, who had soundly rejected time and time again the notion of being the VP pick. The Walker camp knew they need to make a bold choice, so they confronted Martinez and pushed her to the ticket. She accepted, with a couple of conditions: if her family life got in the way, she had to have time to go to them, and she was to be allowed to not answer questions that involved negative attacks on the Clinton camp. Walker accepted it, knowing she would be the only VP pick to even have a possibility against Clinton.

Susana Martinez is Governor Scott Walker's VP pick!



"Thank you Governor Walker for giving me the opportunity in this role. Governor Walker and I agree on this basic premise: that we will fight for all of you. Policies both I and Walker have put into action in our states made our states models for the rest of the nation. We can turn this nation around, back to the principles we fought for, and we can do this if we vote the right way. I encourage you, Walker/Martinez is the real deal!"

The pick was interesting, some conservatives felt anguish, but certainly not Senator Ted Cruz the power broker. Cruz liked Martinez, he understood the need, and was accepting of her nomination. This shocked Walker in some ways, but he understood it in others. Afterwards, the Walker camp set up who was going to give the keynote: Senator Rand Paul. Even with his botched President campaign, he was still admired in most GOP circles for his filibuster, and had pushed the GOP to accept an Anti-Patriot Act Anti-NSA platform. Walker set up a lot of the key speakers in a way that the convention wouldn't go after it's more isolationist element. The convention looked to be a success.

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign faced some staunch criticism. Hillary's foreign policy and privacy policy plan appalled many Democrats. Congressman Rush Holt had announced that he would not endorse the Clinton campaign because of that major policy difference. He even stated that he thought about leaving the Democratic Party and joining the Greens. This brought Hillary's favorability numbers down some, but Sherrod Brown held up some of that fall by announcing the campaign's ideas on Labor Laws. He pushed Hillary to the left when she needed it after appealing to the right, and that combination seemed to work, as Holt's outrage seemed to do no real damage to her polling numbers. It seemed like Walker was facing Teflon Hillary.

[Maxwell]

Polls as of September!

PPP Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Scott Walker: 43%
Others: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Rasmussen Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Scott Walker: 45%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Quinnipiac Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Scott Walker: 44%
Others: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup Polls:
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Scott Walker: 45%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 6%

RCP Averages:
Hillary Clinton: 48.8%
Scott Walker: 44.2%
Undecided: 5.6%

249 - 215 - 74

[Maxwell]

The Conventions: An even match

Walking into the convention, many thought the message of the GOP would be convoluted and muddy. However, walking out, it looks like a GOP united on a re-investigation of our Privacy Rights and a strong national defense. With Senator Rand Paul giving a speech uniting the GOP under that banner, and many unlikely faces standing behind Rand Paul. Governor Christie gave a roaring speech going after Hillary's record as Senator of New York and Sherrod Brown's liberal voting record. Martinez gave the passion that Walker could not, and Walker gave the data that Martinez could not, showing they were a good team. After the convention, the Walker camp shot to the first lead of the entire campaign.

However, the Hillary camp fought back with their convention. Keynote Speaker Bruce Braley promoted labor rights, while Sherrod Brown covered much of the same ground. Hillary Clinton gave a star studded speech, detailing her life and promoting her experience. Senator Lundergan Grimes ripped apart Governor Walker's record as Governor, going after him on unions and education. While Walker gained a lead right after the Republican convention, the Democratic Convention shot the polls back to normal. The debates will prove to be extremely important.

[Maxwell]

Obamacare in Flames: The First Debate

President Barack Obama was unpopular, holding approval ratings of 39-40%. This barely harmed Hillary's numbers, which many were surprised by, but there was a recognition that his Presidency was not as successful as many had hoped. Most of that negativity came from his own party: Their continual angst over NSA spying and drone warfare continued to bog down on the incumbent President. Now, more and more were disapproving over Obamacare.

A cost analysis showed that healthcare costs had managed to get even bigger, even with the bill promising lower costs. And as the cost for the bill came in, we sank deeper into a deficit. Economic confidence lowered, and unemployment went up a tid bit for the first time in months. The administration still held out hope for the bill, but it looked to be going nowhere, with approval of the bill still in the low 30s and starting to sink. With that in mind, Walker came on even stronger.

This issue was the central issue of the debate, and it was fierce. Hillary Clinton stood up in the debate and chastised Walker's criticism.

"It's Republicans like you, who stalled progress, who held back, who fought every living second, that made the bill more inefficient and weak. I'd say you were part of the problem, not part of the solution."

Now, Walker knew what to go after. Talking about her consistent favoring of Universal Healthcare, the Governor charged Clinton wanted an even more inefficent system. Making note of Harry Reid's admission that Obamacare was a step to Universal Healthcare, he went after her own plans and said that; "Healthcare in America only got worse when Government got involved, we need more innovation and less intervention. Look what intervention has given us? This is the wrong way to go!"

Walker won the first debate handily, and the Clinton's began to worry deeply about their prospects and their abilities. It would be the second debate that would bring the race back to normal. Now the question is, what happens to these candidates in the third debate?

[Maxwell]

Before the Election - A look at the Senate and the Presidential race

The townhall debate was a draw, with Clinton knocking Walker on his anti-union stances and Walker knocking Clinton on her lack of accomplishment in the Senate. It was considered contentious, and the story afterward was when Walker wagged his finger in Clinton's face. Nevertheless, the polling didn't change much after the debate.

The foreign policy debate, however, was a shining point for Walker. This was another referendum on the administration - Walker knocked the Presidents actions on the NSA, while holding back on Iraq talk. Clinton laid out an elaborate foreign policy, attempting to appeal to the neo-cons. There was almost a confusion in her voices, as if someone had turned the tables, and in a way, they had. Walker, in a surprising turn, said about Iraq.

"We should learn the lessons of History. I know some of my allies won't acknowledge this, but I will. When you're President, the buck stops with you, and I have to say that the war in Iraq was a failure. We have to take in mind that, and while I support an active America and a strong national defense, we have to be cautious about intervention under both Republicans and Democrats, and that's why I think the administration's foreign actions are wrong and Clinton's ideas are wrong for America."

Democratic operatives have voiced their lack of satisfaction with the Clinton campaign. Despite some positioning to help in coal states, Walker has successfully moved the polls substantially in states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, Lousiana, and even Arkansas, where the Former First Lady of the state ties Governor Walker. In spite of the pick of Sherrod Brown, he has proven to not move the meter much in the state, and Walker trails Clinton there by only a point.

In most of the states toss-up, Clinton either ties or leads. Most of the former Lean states went to Likely states, and Likely went to Safe, as expected. As a result, despite Walker's one vote lead in a generic electoral college, Clinton leads in the popular vote.

PPP Polls - 49% Clinton, 46% Walker
Rasmussen Poll - 49% Walker, 48% Clinton
Quinnipiac Poll - 49% Clinton, 49% Walker
Reuters Poll - 50% Clinton, 45% Walker
RealClear Average - 49.0% Clinton, 47.3% Walker

238 - 237 - 63

Notable Senate Races
AZ - 49% McSally, 47% Kelly
AR - 52% Boozman, 42% Ross
CO - 48% Gardner, 47% Bennet
FL - 49% Rubio, 46% Brown
IL - 50% Schakowsky, 47% Schock
KY - 51% Whitfield, 45% Edelen
MO - 48% Blunt, 48% Zweifel
NV - 52% Sandoval, 43% Reid
NH - 61% Hassan, 30% Lamontage
NC - 50% Burr, 46% Foxx
PA - 49% Toomey, 46% Wolf
WI - 48% Barca, 47% Johnson

[Maxwell]

Gore Redux: Walkers wins popular vote, loses electoral vote

In spite of Walker's electoral victories, there was no question he still faced massive hurdles. Even in the last quarter of fundraising, Walker still came up short to the Clinton machine. The Clinton's, well-funded and organized, knew what they needed to do, and were far more organized than the Republicans. Nevertheless, election night was considered to be one of the closest in our nations history. Walker scored large victories outwest, and most states trended to the right. When all the results were in, Walker had won the popular vote.

But organization was the issue. Clinton scored a crucial victory in Arkansas by less than a thousand votes. Nevada, Arkansas, Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico weren't called until three weeks after election day, leaving most Americans waiting to see who their next President would be. With that narrow win, Clinton enters the White House weakened and without a mandate that Democrats needed for their next session.

Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)/Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM) - 49.38%, 266 EV's
Fmr. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) - 49.23%, 272 EV's
Others - 1.39%, 0 EV's

Senate results will be up later tonight.

[Maxwell]

Obviously Clinton would not win Arkansas while losing the popular vote.

I know T. Jeff, but use your imagination.

A high quality timeline, but I agree. If Clinton wins Arkansas she wins every state that has been considered a swing-state in the past decade and would certainly keep Walker under 60% in West Virginia.

You're probably right on that, I kind of calculated to see, and that's something I may revise.

[Maxwell]

Full Notable Senate Results

Arizona
Congresswoman Martha McSally is considered the frontrunner for the Arizona seat by a large margin. Until September, she led most polls by 10 to 20 point margins. However, with the late entrance and growth of Mark Kelly’s numbers, the Arizona race turned surprisingly competitive, and the outcome was not known. However, by the last minute, undecideds came home, and McSally won a narrow but respectable victory

Congresswoman Martha McSally (R) - 51.1%
Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) - 47.7%
Others - 1.2%

Arkansas
Senator John Boozman faced a re-match of sorts in the surprising primary victory of Former Congressman Mike Ross. No Democrat, besides maybe Mike Beebe, was considered likely to win this race, but Ross ran an active and aggressive campaign, and by getting within ten of the incumbent Senator, surprised many pundits.

Senator John Boozman* (R) - 53.2%
Former Congressman Mike Ross (D) - 44.5%
Others - 2.3%

Colorado
Instead of challenging Mark Udall, Cory Gardner instead decided to use his talents against the other Senator from Colorado. He cleared the field instantly and polled surprisingly well against Senator Michael Bennet. Bennet, considered a rather anonymous figure to most Coloradans, ran an aggressive campaign. The race was considered a toss-up the whole time, but in the end, Coloradans went with Governor Walker, and Walker pulled Gardner narrowly to victory, in one of the toughest Senate fights in the country, even in a year of very tough Senate fights.

Fmr. Congressman Cory Gardner (R) - 48.7%
Senator Michael Bennet* (D) - 48.5%
Others - 2.8%

Florida
Even with a contentious re-election campaign, Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown was considered a rising star in the Florida Democratic party. Though Debbie Wasserman Schultz considered the race, she ultimately passed, due to her weak polling numbers. Brown ran instead, and attacked Rubio hard on his very conservative record, painting himself as a moderate. Rubio trailed for a couple of months, but fired back, attacking the mayors record in Jacksonville and dominating the mayor in the only debate they had. Rubio shaved the image of the water sipping fool, and won by a surprising margin.

Senator Marco Rubio (R) - 52.6%
Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D) - 45.2%
Others - 2.2%

Illinois
Senator Kirk’s stroke was the reason for his retirement, but he also knew that he would face one of the most contentious re-election campaigns in history. Instead, he passed it off to Congressman Aaron Schock, who was considered somewhat controversial after being outted as a homosexual even though he has consistently voted against gay rights. Most Democrats considered Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky a weak nominee, and her numbers started to dip after mid September, but she managed to win the open Republican seat anyway.

Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D) - 53.0%
Congressman Aaron Schock (R) - 45.6%
Others - 1.4%

Kentucky
Senator Rand Paul’s failed Presidential also led to a failed primary successor, with Ed Whitfield beating out Thomas Massie in a very contentious primary. State Auditor Adam Edelen, the Democrat in the race, thought the contentious primary could lead to success, but Whitfield proved to be a competent nominee, and won the Senate race easily.

Congressman Ed Whitfield (R) - 54.2%
State Auditor Adam Edelen (D) - 44.6%
Others - 1.2%

Missouri
Senator Roy Blunt, besides the retiring John McCain, was the least popular Senator in the country. The State Treasurer, Cliff Zweifel, entered the race uncontested in the Democratic primary, and ran 20 points ahead of Blunt out the gate. However, Blunt ran hard to regain his seat, and the polling narrowed toward the end. However, a gaffe in which Blunt called the new Iraqi prime minister an “egg head”, his momentum stopped, causing Zweifel to win the seat.

State Treasurer Cliff Zweifel (D) - 49.3%
Senator Roy Blunt* (R) - 48.2%
Others - 2.5%

Nevada
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had lost his re-election to Alison Lundergan Grimes, and it looked like Majority Leader Harry Reid was headed toward the same path. Governor Brian Sandoval, whose approvals stood at over 70%, announced he would end Harry Reid’s career. Reid, rather unpopular in Nevada, trailed the whole campaign, and even with a large turnout machine, didn’t stand a chance against Sandoval.

Governor Brian Sandoval (R) - 52.6%
Majority Leader Harry Reid* (D) - 41.1%
None of the Above - 4.2%
Others - 1.1%

New Hampshire
After a major scandal forced Senator Kelly Ayotte to resign, the Republican Party in New Hampshire faced an impossible task - holding a tainted seat. Governor Maggie Hassan ran for the open seat, and her former Gubernatorial opponent, Ovide Lamontage, was the GOP designated pick to run for the seat. Due to Ayotte’s scandal, the GOP had no chance of holding the seat, and Lamontage certainly did nothing to improve their chances.

Governor Maggie Hassan (D) - 69.3%
Lawyer Ovide Lamontage (R) - 27.4%
Others - 3.3%

North Carolina
The anonymous Senator Richard Burr faced a tough challenge from Former Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. He was forced to defend his votes and defend his record as a backbencher who accomplished little for North Carolina. The polls tightened quickly, and the debate between the two was fierce. Foxx’s connection to the Obama administration was consistently attacked (Obama’s approvals in NC were 38%), but Foxx got a boost from some ads by Pro-Burr Super PAC’s that were considered racist. Nevertheless, Burr won by a narrower than expected margin.

Senator Richard Burr* (R) - 50.2%
Fmr. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx (D) - 48.3%
Others - 1.5%

Pennsylvania
Despite a bipartisan streak, Senator Pat Toomey was nevertheless considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the nation. He thought luck had struck him when Former Pennsylvania Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf won the Democratic nomination, but Wolf proved to be a very strong candidate, running as a Warren-esqe populist. Debates were very contentious, and in spite of his constant advertising, voters never bought Toomey as a conservative outsider. Wolf won in a narrow upset against the Senator.

Fmr. Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf (D) - 50.8%
Senator Pat Toomey* (R) - 47.9%
Others - 1.3%

Wisconsin
The second least popular Senator in the country, Ron Johnson was deeply in danger early on in his campaign. However, the Democratic primary became one of the most contentious remebered, Assembly Leader Peter Barca and Congressman Ron Kind blasted eachother with ads and attacking eachothers controversies. This resulted in a boon for Johnson, who faced two net negative favorable candidates. Barca, known as the weaker of the two in a possible general election, won, but even then Johnson still trailed by five. Voters had forgotten Johnson’s strong campaign in 2010, but would face his abilities once again in 2016, running against Washington, pledging this to be his last term, and attacking Barca for being a leader in disfunction in Wisconsin. Polls up the election day still showed Barca ahead, but Johnson won re-election by holding on to Governor Walker’s coat-tails.

Senator Ron Johnson* (R) - 48.4%
Assembly Leader Peter Barca (D) - 47.8%
Others - 3.8%

Other Senate Races
Alabama - 70% Shelby, 27% Griffith
Alaska - 58% Sullivan, 39% Egan
California - 60% Boxer, 38% Strickland
Connecticut - 56% Blumenthal, 40% Boughton
Georgia - 66% Isakson, 30% Thurmond
Hawaii - 62% Schatz, 35% Aiona
Idaho - 61% Crapo, 38% Stallings
Indiana - 55% Coats, 43% Ellsworth
Iowa - 56% Grassley, 42% Krause
Kansas - 100% Moran
Lousiana - 52% Boustany, 34% Edwards, 12% Landry
Maryland - 62% Miluski, 36% Craig
New York - 72% Schumer, 26% Walter
North Dakota - 100% Hoeven
Ohio - 56% Portman, 41% Hagan
Oregon - 64% Wyden, 30% Bruun
South Carolina - 78% Scott, 21% Greene
South Dakota - 68% Thune, 31% Johnson
Utah - 57% Lee, 40% Becker
Vermont - 100% Leahy
Washington - 60% Murray, 39% Rossi

[Maxwell]

2016 Gubernatorial Elections

Delaware
No surprises here. Beau Biden wins the Democratic nomination unopposed, and faces sacrificial lamb, Republican state Rep. Michael Ramone. Ramone performs slightly better than expectations, but not enough to get passed being a sacrificial lamb in this race.

Attorney General Beau Biden (D) - 62.2%
State Rep. Michael Ramone (R) - 37.8%

Missouri
Democratic Governor Jay Nixon is term-limited, and top Democratic recruits avoided this race to run for Senate. Jason Holsman, a former Senate staffer and state Senator, took the mantle as the top second tier candidate, and faced off against top Republican recruit Tom Schweich. Inspite of Missouri’s Dem-leaning history, Schweich beat even Walker’s margins in the state and ran away with the election.

State Auditor Tom Schweich (R) - 54.1%
State Senator Jason Holsman (D) - 43.4%
Others - 2.5%

West Virginia
In one of the most contentious races of the year in a fight for control over the state of West Virginia, Sec. of State Natalie Tennant faces off against Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. The race goes nuclear negativie, the voters don’t have a positive view of either candidate. However, Morrissey is aided by the Republican revolution in the state, and narrowly defeats Tennant.

Attorney General Patrick Morrissey (R) - 50.3%
Sec. of State Natalie Tennant (D) - 49.7%

Montana
The state Majority Leader Wittich ran a very hopeful campaign, but didn’t stand a chance against the popular Governor Steve Bullock.

Governor Steve Bullock* (D) - 56.8%
Majority Leader Art Wittich (R) - 38.9%
Others - 4.3%

Washington
Inslee’s approvals are middling to below average, usually around 42-44%, and Republicans saw an oppurtunity. They re-ran Fmr. Attorney General Rob McKenna for a re-match, and McKenna and Inslee battled it out like before. However, McKenna’s candidacy was weakened by his partisan affiliation, and with an improving situation in the state of Washington, McKenna was bound to lose.

Governor Jay Inslee* (D) - 51.6%
Fmr. Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) - 47.3%
Others - 1.1%

Indiana
Pence’s popularity in the state was strong, and after Former Senator Evan Bayh rejected calls to enter the race, Democrats ran a sacrificial lamb in Scott Pelath, the House Minority Leader in the state. Easy to say, he didn’t stand a chance.

Governor Mike Pence* (R) - 62.4%
House Minority Leader Scott Pelath (D) - 35.4%
Others - 2.2%

North Dakota
Governor Jack Dalrympe* (R) - 100%

North Carolina
Governor Pat McCrory had a rough first two years, but as the situation in North Carolina began to improve, so did his numbers. By July, McCrory held a ten point lead over Attorney General Roy Cooper. However, after July, the McCrory campaign’s incompetence began to take hold, and by late October, Cooper and McCrory were again in a dead heat, with some polls even showing Cooper ahead by 2. However, Cooper made some notable gaffes throughout the campaign that offended some traditional Democratic demographics (including blacks), and McCrory managed to win a very narrow re-election on the back of those comments.

Governor Pat McCrory* (R) - 49.4%
Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) - 48.7%
Others - 1.9%

Utah
In the first contentious statewide race in a long time, Congressman Jim Matheson faces Assistant Majoirty Whip Peter C. Knudson. Knudson, known by his colleagues to be kind of a bore, runs a mediocre campaign and Matheson runs an energetic one. Nevertheless, Matheson, even with all his talents, is never able to leap above the partisan boundries of the state, and loses by 7 points, the closest a Democrat has come since his father’s election to the same office so many years ago.

State Senator Peter C. Knudson (R) - 52.3%
Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 45.4%
Others - 2.3%

New Hampshire
The Ayotte scandal has poisoned the water for state-wide Republicans in New Hampshire, and Democrats are not only poised to win back the state house and Senate, but are also poised to win the office of Governor and Senate. A fierce Democratic primary results in a victory for State Senator David Pierce, who famously gave a great speech on gay marriage. He faces Republican perennial candidate Kevin Smith. Smith runs a better campaign than his counterpart, Ovide Lamontage, but he still is swept by the Anti-State Republican tidal wave that exists in New Hampshire.

State Senator David Pierce (D) - 60.2%
Former State Rep. Kevin Smith (R) - 36.5%
Others - 3.3%

Vermont
Shumlin popularity hits new lows over budget issues, and voters find themselves with a competitive race. Lt. Governor Phillip Scott, seeing new opportunity in the red eyes of the voters, runs against the Governor on a moderate reform package. Shumlin, trailing in the polls, trashes the package, asking the ever famous “Where’s the Beef” question. Shumlin starts to come back, but on election day, him and Scott are tied. Undecideds come home, though, and Shumlin wins by close to 9 points.

Governor Pete Shumlin (D) - 53.6%
Lt. Governor Phillip Scott (R) - 45.2%
Others - 1.2%

[Maxwell]

Wondering what percentage of the African American vote did McCrory got against Cooper ?

I know he won 13% of the AA vote in 2012.

His numbers go down amongst whites and hispanics, but he wins 14% of African Americans in 2016.

[Maxwell]

First year of the Clinton Administration

Hillary's Cabinet
Secretary of State - Bill Richardson
Secretary of Treasury - Beth Brooke
Secretary of Defense - Susan Collins
Attorney General - Seth Waxman
Secretary of Interior - Sally Jewell
Secretary of Agriculture - Brad Ashford
Secretary of Commerce - Steven Rattner
Secretary of Labor - Janice Hahn
HHS Secretary - Walter Broadnax
HUD Secretary - Saul Ramierez
Secretary of Transportation - Royce West
Secretary of Education - Tom Vilsack
Secretary of Energy - Rob Brenner
Secretary of Veteran's Affairs - John McCain
Secretary of Homeland Security - Wesley Clark

While staying neutral in the campaign, Hillary Clinton knew that she had to push an agenda right away during the first year. During the State of the Union, she managed to push off Democrats and Republicans by pushing for immigration reform, deficit reduction, further reforms to healthcare, and an activist america across the globe. The GOP leadership have already said no dice to immigration reform and healthcare, but have been willing to talk on deficit reduction.

The first year of the Clinton administration was marked by strong critiques from both sides. The Progressive caucus stood against The Deficit Reduction Act of 2017, and Senator Patrick Leahy, an aging voice in the Senate, filibustered the bound to pass bill, calling it a "sham and a shame, cutting the American people while continuing record military spending". The further right said the bill wouldn't put us on a balanced budget until 2025, and raised taxes on job creators in a weakening economy. The bill, nevertheless, passed 68-31 in the Senate, and passed in the House despite nearly a quarter of the Democratic Party voting against it.

Unemployment started to go up again by the end of the election year, and it only continued to go up afterwards. Senator Brian Sandoval and Senator Mark Warner put together a package that would give tax credits to businesses to hire more people, and lowering the corporate tax rate while closing loopholes. In spite of Sandoval's gesture of goodwill, Democrats, including the President, saw this as too much of a giveaway to the Republicans, and the bill was voted down.

The only piece of legislation on the agenda signed at the end of the Clinton first year was a moderate education reform piece, allowing payments of student loans to be tied to income. This was another piece of work from Mark Warner, only this time with Senator Marco Rubio. This was a bill that was considered uncontroversial, and both Minority Leader John Cornyn and Speaker John Boehner let their people go free on the issue.

On foreign policy, Clinton followed through on her promise of an activist America. She sent more military officials to the troubled region of Iraq, heeding the call to be in defense of the state of Israel, and sending drones to Syria. The spokesman in the U.S. Senate for non-interventionism, Congressman Justin Amash, gave a highly publicized speech criticizing the Clinton policy across the globe, calling it "ineffective, undiplomatic, and saber rattling at its worst".

Clinton Approval (12/31/17)
50% Approve
45% Disapprove

Elections that year

Maine Special

Governor Eliot Cutler appointed Independent State Rep. James Campbell to Susan Collins Senate seat. However, Campbell proved to be unable to hold the Democrats with him (he chose to caucus with the Democrats), and as a result, they ran a strong candidate in Hannah Pingree. Pingree faced Campbell and Republican State Senator Roger Katz. Katz ran a strong campaign, and thankfully for him, Campbell was taking a larger chunk of the Democrat vote, and in a strong upset, Katz won the special election.

State Senator Roger Katz (R) - 36.2%
State Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) - 35.4%
Interim Senator James Campbell (I) - 24.6%
Others - 3.8%

Virginia

Governor Terry McAuliffe proved to be a surprisingly strong Governor, but even with the surprise, his approvals were fairly middling, holding to a 43-46 Approval-Disapproval ratio. Democrats nominated Attorney General Mark Herring, who faced his Attorney General opponent Mark Obenshain in the general election. Obenshain was not Creigh Deeds, and weighed a very credible bid against Herring. The two Mark's battled, but Obenshain rode the tide of history and defeated Herring in the highly publicized and highly negative race.

Fmr. State Senator Mark Obenshain (R) - 50.8%
Attorney General Mark Herring (D) - 49.2%

New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie left office with a negative approval rating (42-50), but nothing outside the unusual for New Jersey. The Lieutenant Governor at the time was tainted by the Christie scandal, and she did not run for the office. Instead, the primary became a battle between State Senator Michael Doherty of the Conservative wing, and Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. of the Moderate wing. the Kean and Doherty battle went nuclear, and basically eliminated the chances of the Republicans reclaiming Christie's house. Barbara Bunono ran again for Governor, but fell to third place at barely double digits against a battle between Congressman Frank Pallone and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop. Pallone led by large margins at first, but Fulop caught up quickly, and defeated Pallone by less than five points.

Dem Primary
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) - 38.8%
Congressman Frank Pallone (D) - 34.9%
State Senator Barbara Buono (D) - 13.2%
Essex County Executive Joe DiVincevio (D) - 9.8%
Others - 3.3%

Rep Pimary
State Senator Michael J. Doherty (R) - 51.4%
Minority Leader Tom Kean (R) - 44.2%
Others - 4.4%

General Election
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) - 56.8%
State Senator Michael J. Doherty (R) - 41.3%
Others - 1.9%

[Maxwell]

So Holbrooke survived his 2011 heart aneurysm?

sh**t, thanks.