2008 ... just for fun

Ben.
Ben
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2008 ... just for fun

« on: April 04, 2004, 07:08:05 AM »

Warning Republicans will see this as biased, but I genuinely don’t (Well maybe alittle)…

Bush won in 2004… by a modest, but not insignificant or dubious margin… in 2005 spending cuts where forced on Bush spending by the GOP House and the divided senate (Cheney effectively giving the GOP a precious hold over the upper house) but these where resented by many voters added to this Bush pushed through a further tax cut this time aimed more directly at the middle classes… however the deficit is still there and many are concerned about it… the leader of the Democrats in the Senate Chris Dodd is quick to exploit popular dissatisfaction with the republican administration, in the house Pelosi can do little as many on the right lead by the charismatic congressman Harold Ford and Ben Chandler are forcing a more moderate agenda upon her, with this moderate agenda the “blue dogs” effectively build a coalition in the house of moderate republicans and moderate and moderately liberal democrats and are better able to obstructed the Presidents plans… Both Ford and Dodd become regular guests on the news networks and popular interview shows while Pelosi becomes more and more marginalised… the midterms role around in November 2006… Dodd has launched a massive campaign to raise cash and polls show public sentiment running the DNC’s way… the senate which has sat on a razor’s edge for two years since Dem gains in the 2004 senate races now swings to the Dems… Democrats hold in tough open contests in West Virginia (Dem pro-lifer congressman Nick Rahall winning), Wisconsin and California (Sanchez winning) while in Mississippi (Moore), Missouri, Tennessee (Ford), Arizona and Indiana the Dems make gains… in the house the GOP majority narrows to 12 and thanks to this Pelosi is largely able to hang on to her precarious but somewhat strengthened position as minority leader… By now Bush’s presidency seems very similar to a more conservative version of Nixon’s without the Watergate… there has been no solid economic recovery and many view it as pretty mediocre, conservatives worry about the deficit and the religious right worry about Bush’s real commitment to their goals added to this the Democratic control over congress is hampering any passage of legislation that could cement the base behind Bush again and help unite the Republican party going into the Primary season…

The Religious right and many on the right of the GOP including attorney general John Ashcroft support the campaign of Rick Santorum… the moderate conservatives largely support the campaign of former majority leader Bill Frist… initially Santorum makes gains on Frist painting him as a liberal republican and too soft and leftwing on a range of issues… however Frist soon retools his campaign and by running more to the right is able to marginalise Santorum and paint him as a radical… despite upsetting Frist in South Carolina and a number of other southern contests Santorum is soundly defeated by Frist… At the GOP convention in Seattle Frist moves to fill the gaps in his executive experience and boost his appeal amougst moderate voters.. his first choice is former CO governor Bill Owens however Owens declines, Frist then turns to George Pataki the moderate former NY governor who accepts the Vp spot on the ticket… despite the shows of republican unity in Seattle the religious right and right of the GOP are disappointed in the selection of Frist as the Party’s standard bearer and even more so at the choice of the moderate Pataki over the more conservative Santorum who many of the GOP right had hoped would have been chosen to produce a unity ticket. Meanwhile PA Governor Ed Rendell wins the Democratic nomination after a tougher fight than Frist and selects the young southern senator (has been for only two years, however he has been in the house since 1998) as his VP in what many see as a surprising and risky move…

The economy is growing however this growth is slow and the world’s economy more generally is beginning to slow down yet again… higher taxes have been brought in, in many states, to make up for the shortfall in government spending while at the same time the cuts in many social programs introduced by Bush have been very unpopular as this is now being exacerbated by the first wave of “baby boomers” retiring, the campaign is further shaken up by the appearance of Jesse Ventura as an independent campaigning on a platform not dissimilar to that of Ross Perot in 92 with former VT sn Jim Jeffords as his VP (maybe a stretch but fun!)…

The polls in late September now stand at…

Frist/ Pataki = 40%

Rendell/ Ford = 47%

Jesse Ventura/ Jim Jeffords = 9%

Undecided = 4%

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