Will LA overtake NYC as the most populous city or metro area in America by 2070?

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

City proper, MSA or CSA.

My answer: no.

[Badlands17]

If the MSA adopts the same boundaries as the CSA (meaning it includes San Bernardino and Riverside counties); otherwise, just Los Angeles and Orange counties are in the metro and there's effectively no room in the Los Angeles Basin to build out anymore. The only part of the metro not in the Basin is around Lancaster and Palmdale north of LA, and it's my impression this particular area is not doing great economically right now.

[traininthedistance]

No, and not even if we're counting by CSA.  Water issues will almost certainly constrain growth in SoCal by then, and NYC is still growing faster than the surrounding metros.

[Torie]

In some ways, everything from San Diego to Santa Barbara/Goleta to Lancaster to Victorville to Banning is one giant metro area - where the land is buildable, it's built.

[Sbane]

There is still room for growth in the IE and I suspect it will continue. If Camp Pendleton gets shut down, you would see explosive growth there.

[Lief 🗽]

We'll all be dead by then so what does it matter?

[© tweed]

We'll all be dead by then so what does it matter?

both will be well underwater.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yeah there's already 70 feet of sea level rise locked in according to the likes of Joe Romm so yeah... LA and NYC won't exist by then.

[muon2]

Yeah there's already 70 feet of sea level rise locked in according to the likes of Joe Romm so yeah... LA and NYC won't exist by then.

So, Chicago will pass them both to be the largest.

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

New York will never fall. If we're engulfed by water, we'll just build a massive dome around the city, like on Naboo in Star Wars.

In some ways, everything from San Diego to Santa Barbara/Goleta to Lancaster to Victorville to Banning is one giant metro area - where the land is buildable, it's built.

The LA CSA annexing the San Diego CSA could definitely put them above New York - but likewise, you have to consider that the NY CSA is only a hair away from that of Philly.

[Dave from Michigan]

10 largest MSA in 2020

New York City
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Philadelphia
Miami
Atlanta
Boston

2030

New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Philadelphia
Miami
Atlanta
Phoenix

2040
New York city
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Miami
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Phoenix

2050
New York City
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Miami
Atlanta
Detroit

2060
NYC
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Detroit
Atlanta
Miami
Philadelphia

2070
NYC
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Washington D.C.
Detroit
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Boston

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

You don't see Houston going any further?

[Brittain33]

You don't see Houston going any further?

There's a heavy weighting for climate change effects in his listing, it looks like. Houston isn't heading for destruction but it's going to flood more often while becoming less and less comfortable.

[memphis]

Detroit? WTF?

[traininthedistance]

You don't see Houston going any further?

There's a heavy weighting for climate change effects in his listing, it looks like. Houston isn't heading for destruction but it's going to flood more often while becoming less and less comfortable.

If climate change gets real bad, the big winner is going to be Chicago.

Here in NYC, I have to imagine we'd start building massive Venice-style seawalls after a couple more Sandies.  As horrifically expensive as such an undertaking would be, it would be more cost-effective than any of the alternatives.