Out of these swing-state Senators, who's most likely to be Hillary's VP?

[Blue3]

Out of these swing-state Senators, who's most likely to be Hillary's VP?
(I originally was only going to include 7, but decided to throw them all, and make it multiple-choice)


Bennet (Colorado)


Udall (Colorado)


Nelson (Florida)


Stabenow (Michigan)


Franken (Minnesota)


Klobuchar (Minnesota)


McCaskill (Missouri)


Reid (Nevada)


Shaheen (New Hampshire)


Heinrich (New Mexico)


Udall (New Mexico)


Hagan (North Carolina)


Brown (Ohio)


Casey (Pennsylvania)


Kaine (Virginia)
 

Warner (Virginia)


Baldwin (Wisconsin)






Of course, there's no rule saying the Democratic nominee has to pick a Senator (though they almost always do).

And it definitely doesn't need to be someone from a swing state (see Biden, Palin, Lieberman, Cheney)

There's also a chance that Hillary isn't the Democratic nominee.




But, if Hillary is the nominee, and she picks a Senator from a swing-state, which of these are the most likely?

[bballrox4717]

It's gotta be Warner. I realize the love for Brown on here, but both Hillary and national Democrats realize that an Ohioan progressive is much more useful in the Senate than having him sit on his bum as vice president. Successful, legitimate progressives in swing states are rare enough as it is. Also, no way in hell does Hillary go with an all female ticket.

[Napoleon]

Heinrich and Kaine are the only ones on this list that come close to being possible, Kaine much more so than Heinrich.

[Mister Mets]

I like the idea of starting with a complete list, and narrowing options from there.

It's unlikely to be a woman. That excludes Stabenow, Klobuchar, McCaskill, Shaheen, Hagan and Baldwin.

There's a likely age cutoff. That excludes Tom Udall, Mark Udall, Harry Reid, Al Franken and Bill Nelson, all of whom will be elderly in 2016. If they aren't already.

There's no obvious reason to exclude Bennett. He has education bona fides, is relative young and provides geographic diversity.

Heinrich has similar advantages.

Brown comes from a more important swing state. He may be older than the ideal veep, but the base should like him. He may be caricatured, and he was first elected to public office in 1974.

Bob Casey is Pro-Life. So it's not going to be him.

Either Virginian would be a solid pick. Warner's more popular in a crucial swing state, Kaine is a bit younger and fluent in Spanish, but I honestly don't see Hillary picking a Veep who was a prominent Obama supporter in 2008.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Either Virginian would be a solid pick. Warner's more popular in a crucial swing state, Kaine is a bit younger and fluent in Spanish, but I honestly don't see Hillary picking a Veep who was a prominent Obama supporter in 2008.

Clinton/Lieberman 2016?

[Governor Zeeland]

I would say Tim Kaine, an actual moderate who certainly have the experience to be president.  I think she might pick an incumbent second term governor, due to the folksy touch as well as having a "D.C. outsider" on the ticket.

[Sec. of State Superique]

I don't see why Hillary would never choose another woman!

I like Brown, I like Heinrich (his name is almost like mine: Henrique) and I'd be a great supporter of Warner. Udall (CO) is nice but Hickenlooper would be better if she wants a guy from Colorado

[barfbag]

Tim Kaine would help in the crucial state of Virginia and they compensate each other well.

[Mister Mets]

Either Virginian would be a solid pick. Warner's more popular in a crucial swing state, Kaine is a bit younger and fluent in Spanish, but I honestly don't see Hillary picking a Veep who was a prominent Obama supporter in 2008.

Clinton/Lieberman 2016?

I meant the primary.

But I could see Crist as a contender, if she wants to build a campaign around Republican excesses.

[The Free North]

When the boogeyman goes to sleep at night, he checks under his bed for Claire McCaskill's official congressional photo

[Miles]

I like Brown or Casey the most.

[Flake]

She will probable never choose an all-female ticket, but I think Hagan would be the best choice because it would make it much easier to win NC's 15 electoral votes.

[Bull Moose Base]

When was the last time a president was elected after choosing a swing-state senator? Romney didn't even win Ryan's congressional district. (And Kerry lost North Carolina, and Dole lost New York...) It doesn't work like everyone here seems to think it does. I guess Warner and Kaine are the most likely from the list, but less so because Virginia is (was?) a swing state but because they're both picks that would satisfy Hillary's likely actual priority that her VP pick does no harm. I agree if Hillary is in a very tight race with a big gender gap she's extremely unlikely to pick a female, but does everyone saying she could never pick a woman think that still applies if she's up by 5-10 points with 2 months to go? It's not all that unlikely a scenario.

[JRP1994]

Well, first of all: Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico are not swing states.

Secondly, out of that group, I'd say either Nelson (FL), Kaine (VA), or Warner (VA). My choice would be Warner.

[eric82oslo]

I agree if Hillary is in a very tight race with a big gender gap she's extremely unlikely to pick a female, but does everyone saying she could never pick a woman think that still applies if she's up by 5-10 points with 2 months to go? It's not all that unlikely a scenario.

I agree with you. I consider the possibility for Hillary picking a woman being somewhere around 30-40%. So the "never" talk is just too out there. If you wanna make history, why not go all the way?

It's not like you're offering two extreme right religious nuts, or a lesbian for president and a gay guy for VP. Not that there's anything wrong with a lesbian/gay ticket, I just don't think more than 50% of American voters are ready for it yet. Maybe in 2020 or 2024. I think we might have a gay (or lesbian) VP in 2020 actually.

[Maxwell]

Klobuchar, Kaine, and Baldwin.

Klobuchar would be the best dark horse of the bunch. I don't think Kaine would be a smart choice at all, but I am not entirely shocked if he's picked. As for Baldwin, that's who I hope is picked, and would rally the base.

[TDAS04]

Heinrich would be plausible if Martinez is on the Republican ticket, in order to secure New Mexico. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

I doubt Hillary would pick a woman.  Once upon a time, I'd have considered that silly, but given the gender gap and its associated issues, the Democrats may well choose to double down on that issue and pick a woman.

I believe that Sherrod Brown is the most likely pick for VP.  Period.  Ohio is the closest of the swing states and is more likely to switch to the GOP than Virginia, based on demographic trends.

[anvi]

Good thread question.  If Hillary runs, she stands good chances to win the general no matter who she picks as VP, just because of the demographics and her overall popularity.  But she still needs a VP, of course.  I think for the most part that Mister Mets above is right.  But I don't think Hillary would have qualms about picking Kaine just because he supported Obama in 2008.  If he helps, he helps, and in terms of region and organizational muscle among Dems, Kaine could help.  I think, from the list above, Brown, Bennett and Kaine are the most appealing choices.  Warren of Virginia is popular there, but I find him to be quite wishy-washy on policy and I don't think it would reflect well on a national stage.

Actually, in thinking about this, it seems to me that, if Hillary doesn't run, the generally weak field of possible Dem candidates that's left over would make any one of these three guys viable presidential candidates in their own right, for different reasons.

[Napoleon]

Warner of Virginia is popular there, but I find him to be quite wishy-washy on policy and I don't think it would reflect well on a national stage.

He's also really ugly, which, to be blunt, can hurt his chances.



It's just not a good face.

[anvi]

LOL!!

[windjammer]

I'm not fan with pro life Bob Casey. Mark Warner would be perfect.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Kaine, Warner, Heinrich, and Brown, with Kaine being the likeliest out of these options.

[Blue3]

I voted Kaine, Warner, Heinrich, and Brown, with Kaine being the likeliest out of these options.

I already went to round 2:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176376.0

[eric82oslo]

Warner of Virginia is popular there, but I find him to be quite wishy-washy on policy and I don't think it would reflect well on a national stage.

He's also really ugly, which, to be blunt, can hurt his chances.



It's just not a good face.

Doesn't seem to hurt his chances at all in Virginia though. People are just not that superficial. I had the same reaction to begin with. But the more I got to know him, the more I liked him. And honestly, there's no way a future president will not be extremely well-known by the time the election day arrives. By then personality will trump looks one million percent. Had Gingrich had a nice personality, he might even have been in it with a shot himself. (The trouble with him though is that his personality - as agreed upon by his own lesbian half sister - is even more horrendous than his looks).