AK Congressional Races 2014

[illegaloperation]

We might as sell have a thread for Alaska.

Happening now: Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller have filed to challenge popular freshmen senator Mark Begich.

Sarah Palin is also considering a run.

[publicunofficial]

Sarah Palin is also considering a run.

Yeah but not really

[Miles]

PPP should have their poll out in a day or so, but it doesn't look like Begich will be getting a pass:

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[Space7]

PPP should have their poll out in a day or so, but it doesn't look like Begich will be getting a pass:

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This should be interesting.

The poll I made suggests that currently the consensus (barely) is that Alaska is the tipping-point state for the Senate race. Louisiana might as well be tied though, and this poll could easily hand the torch to LA. If Begich lags behind, even a bit, it will be all down to Landrieu.

In any case, the Republicans need to win both.

[Brittain33]

LOL... Public Policy Trolling has Palin leading the Republican primary with 36% of the electorate.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-palin-leads-gop-senate-primary-in-alaska

[windjammer]

Begich is vulnerable.
Who is  Dan Sullivan?

[illegaloperation]

After Begich voted against background check, he went from 49/39 to 41/37

That vote did not go well for him.

Now, it's 42/41 for some reason.

[Miles]

Begich is vulnerable.
Who is  Dan Sullivan?

The mayor of Anchorage, which was actually Begich's job before he was a Senator.

[windjammer]

Is he interested?

[Miles]

Is he interested?

Whoah, I forgot that there are two Dan Sullivans:

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[HAnnA MArin County]

That same poll has Palin losing to Begich by 12 points. We really need the Republicans to nominate her to hang onto this seat and possibly shift it into the Leans D category.

[illegaloperation]

That same poll has Palin losing to Begich by 12 points. We really need the Republicans to nominate her to hang onto this seat and possibly shift it into the Leans D category.

We don't necessary "need" that, but it sure would help tremendously!

[illegaloperation]

Alaska is the most elastic Atlas blue state: it has a large number of genuine undecided voters (as oppose to Independent voters which include those who always vote for one party).

Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats almost two to one in Alaska.

Begich must overcome that be winning over a large segment of these undecided voters.

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[windjammer]

http://news.yahoo.com/begich-may-benefit-gop-woes-075009276.html

I disagree with this article, I think Treadwell can be strong.

How many state gops have been infiltrated by Ron Paul?

[RogueBeaver]

Treadwell can self-fund and is basically Generic R, he's a strong candidate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Treadwell can self-fund and is basically Generic R, he's a strong candidate.

He's barely raised any money. And Generic R won't be a benefit. Alaska is a small state, and people like the door to door campaigning. Some personality would help him.

[windjammer]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/07/the-next-senator-from-alaska-may-have-just-deployed-to-afghanistan-23

Dan Sullivan (not the mayor of Anchorage) might run.

[illegaloperation]

I am begging Sarah Palin to jump in.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/07/the-next-senator-from-alaska-may-have-just-deployed-to-afghanistan-23

Dan Sullivan (not the mayor of Anchorage) might run.

Wouldn't be interesting if Dan Sullivan wins in 2014, then in 2016 Murkowski retires and the other Dan Sullivan wins?

[Miles]

Begich will be running hard on local issues:

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[illegaloperation]

Begich has a few things working in his favor.

1. Begich is the incumbent and Alaska is very pro-incumbent

2. Alaska is a very elastic state

3. Alaskans care about local issues and it's very hard to nationalize the race

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Murkowskis didn't win in 2012, it was 2010.

[cinyc]

Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell is officially in the Senate race.

Alaska National Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan resigned, prompting speculation that he might jump into the race.  According to the Anchorage Daily News, two lesser-known candidates, John Jaramillo and Kathleen Tonn, are also in the Republican race.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Begich has a few things working in his favor.

1. Begich is the incumbent and Alaska is very pro-incumbent

2. Alaska is a very elastic state

3. Alaskans care about local issues and it's very hard to nationalize the race

Additionally, Alaska is one of the few states that swung for Obama last year.  That might not impact this race much, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

[RogueBeaver]

Sullivan will be getting in by month's end. Begich is probably cackling: two Generic Pubs and Joe Miller duking it out in a primary. Pubs better be careful here because there's no runoff.