AK Congressional Races 2014

[IceSpear]

Obviously a guy who lost to a write-in candidate yet thinks he has a chance in the next election anyway isn't very in touch with reality.

[IceSpear]

Who gives a...?


In 2016, it will be her turn anyway and with somone more solid then Miller.

If Treadwell is too much of a Murkowski tool to effectively challenge Begich, then it I say one more reason to go with Sullivan.

Just being a Murkowski-ite is reason enough to not nominate him.

She's going to run as an Indie in 2016 and will probably win again. No way does she run in the GOP primary (she knows she'd lose) or switch parties (political suicide). I also can't see her retiring given how much she obviously wants to keep her job. I imagine it will be a 2006 Connecticut style race.

[IceSpear]

Against someone far more credible then Miller in a three way, I would suspect she would be at a disadvantage in my opinion.

Only if she could pull what Sanders does in Vermont, would she have the upper hand.


The Murkowski brand is discredited and only Miller's controversies saved her last time.

Yes, but you can count on Democrats abandoning whatever perennial candidate they put up for Murkowski in the end, just like Republicans did in Connecticut in 2006.

That plus her support among the more moderate Republicans and independents in the state would likely be enough.

[IceSpear]

I'd say winning a write-in Senate campaign is pretty impressive period, considering it's only been done twice in the entire history of the country.

[IceSpear]

But Angus King never won a write-in campaign. Strom Thurmond in 1954 was the only other Senator who has.

[IceSpear]

Guys, chill.

This is an Alaska thread after all

Not to mention this is about 2014 but we're all discussing 2016 anyway.

[IceSpear]

But Angus King never won a write-in campaign. Strom Thurmond in 1954 was the only other Senator who has.

Oh wonderful. She won a write-in campaign. That makes her the Alaska version of Angus King. She has lucked her way into two Senate terms, but her luck will soon run out.

She has never had the following her father once had. No matter how nuts Miller is, oh how unchained Palin becomes, nothing will change that. She certainly hasn't changed and she certainly doesn't have that kind of appeal to pull a repeat of either CT or ME.

Angus King was an independent, not a write-in.

Really? IS there where this conversation is going to go? Where did I say Angus King was a write in? I said people are using the fact that she won a write-in campaign to attach to her the kind of popularity and following that Angus King has as it relates to 2016. Not that hard to figure out and doesnt presume the person is automatically stupid, but that seems to be the going thing here tonight.

My point was that you're diminishing the impressiveness of winning a write-in campaign just because you dislike Murkowski. Her winning that was a million times more impressive than Angus King winning as an independent, considering he was actually on the ballot...

[IceSpear]

Once I start to worry about Miller sneaking in to take the nomination, PPP makes me feel a lot better:

"@ppppolls: Good news for GOP Senate prospects, Joe Miller's favorability is 26/52...just among Alaska Republican primary voters."

His only hope is if Treadwell/Sullivan split the vote fairly evenly, letting Miller slip through with <40%.

[IceSpear]

Oh wonderful. She won a write-in campaign. That makes her the Alaska version of Angus King. She has lucked her way into two Senate terms, but her luck will soon run out.

She has never had the following her father once had. No matter how nuts Miller is, oh how unchained Palin becomes, nothing will change that. She certainly hasn't changed and she certainly doesn't have that kind of appeal to pull a repeat of either CT or ME.

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[IceSpear]

Oh wonderful. She won a write-in campaign. That makes her the Alaska version of Angus King. She has lucked her way into two Senate terms, but her luck will soon run out.

She has never had the following her father once had. No matter how nuts Miller is, oh how unchained Palin becomes, nothing will change that. She certainly hasn't changed and she certainly doesn't have that kind of appeal to pull a repeat of either CT or ME.

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That is the result of all the hype she has received from beating Miller, basically her surviving victim status, as a result of the tea party going after her, by the establishment and media.

It also indicates with me that she is still very vulernable to a primary challenge and even if she goes third party, whether she wins as such will depend on thep resence of the Democrat and how much they get and the quality of the Republican. Nothing stated refutes anything I said and in fact validates quite a lot of it greatly.

Well, being the most popular elected official in the state with a majority of voters approving of her certainly shows that "she has the appeal to pull a repeat of CT/ME".

Besides, those numbers make two things very clear: She's not going to run in a Republican primary, and Democrats will vote for her en masse.

[IceSpear]

Oh wonderful. She won a write-in campaign. That makes her the Alaska version of Angus King. She has lucked her way into two Senate terms, but her luck will soon run out.

She has never had the following her father once had. No matter how nuts Miller is, oh how unchained Palin becomes, nothing will change that. She certainly hasn't changed and she certainly doesn't have that kind of appeal to pull a repeat of either CT or ME.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is the result of all the hype she has received from beating Miller, basically her surviving victim status, as a result of the tea party going after her, by the establishment and media.

It also indicates with me that she is still very vulernable to a primary challenge and even if she goes third party, whether she wins as such will depend on thep resence of the Democrat and how much they get and the quality of the Republican. Nothing stated refutes anything I said and in fact validates quite a lot of it greatly.

Well, being the most popular elected official in the state with a majority of voters approving of her certainly shows that "she has the appeal to pull a repeat of CT/ME".

Besides, those numbers make two things very clear: She's not going to run in a Republican primary, and Democrats will vote for her en masse.

If the Republican is someone of quality, most of those Repub and Repub leaning indies who are favorable to Murko will rally to that person. Also, she won't unify the Democrats unless they clear their ballot line Sanders style and I don't know if that is legal in AK. Someone will run to the left and get a good number of votes. 45-45-10 for instance.

Yeah, I do agree that she has a very delicate balancing act. But so far, she seems to be doing pretty well at it. Unlike Lieberman whose approval was godawful among Ds, Rs, AND Is only a couple years after getting re-elected.

[IceSpear]

Miller won't rule out running as an independent if he loses the GOP nomination.

I can only pray...

lol

Someone should check if Miller is secretly a Democrat. Now there's TWO opportunities for him to hand us a free seat.

[IceSpear]

Palin endorses Miller in the U.S. Senate race.

This gives me hope that Miller can pull this off after all. Palin's ratings may be garbage among the general electorate, but they're still decent among Republicans. Combine that with Treadwell and Sullivan splitting the sane vote, and there's certainly an opening for Miller after this endorsement.

It would be wonderful if Republicans handed us the Alaska seat on a platter, and ironic since Miller would be the only TP Senate candidate to succeed.

[IceSpear]

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This gives me hope that Miller can pull this off after all. Palin's ratings may be garbage among the general electorate, but they're still decent among Republicans. Combine that with Treadwell and Sullivan splitting the sane vote, and there's certainly an opening for Miller after this endorsement.

It would be wonderful if Republicans handed us the Alaska seat on a platter, and ironic since Miller would be the only TP Senate candidate to succeed.

As much as I would like for this to be the case, Miller's net favorables are in the toilet with Republicans and endorsements don't really sway that many votes. Color me pleasantly surprised if I'm proved wrong.
[/quote]

Most recent PPP poll has him at 40-42, and Palin's endorsement could help a bit with that. Due to the three way race, 34-40% could be potentially all he needs to win.

[IceSpear]

Huckabee endorses Miller, but this is really freakin late in the game.

Millermentum!

[IceSpear]

Huckabee endorses Miller, but this is really freakin late in the game.

That endorsement literally makes no sense, considering they're basically opposites within the GOP tent.

Does Alaska even have that many socons?

Apparently.