Bush +2 in Ohio

[The Vorlon]

Bush Holds Narrow Ohio Lead
April 4, 2004

http://www.dispatch.com/
http://www.onnnews.com/story.php?record=29671

President Bush leads challenger John Kerry by
only one percentage point in a poll published in The Columbus Dispatch.

Bush had 46% to 45% for Kerry with ten percent undecided. That's if the election features only the Republican incumbent against the Democratic challenger.

With consumer-advocate Ralph Nader in the race, Bush leads Kerry 45 percent to 43 percent, with Nader getting three percent and nine percent undecided.

© Associated Press and Dispatch Productions, Inc., 2004. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Nader must submit valid signatures from at least 5,000 registered Ohio voters by August 19th to qualify for the statewide ballot.

The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points. (implies a sample size of about 2400 or so)

Ohio is expected to be a battleground state in a race whose key issues include jobs and the economy. No Republican has been elected
president without winning Ohio.

Vorlon Note!

I know nothing about the validity, or not, of this poll yet.

It is about the same as the Terrance group poll showing Bush +4.7, other than that.. nothing to report...

[agcatter]

Any word on when this poll was taken?

[agcatter]

Vorlon, when you get more information about the Terrance Ohio poll can you share some of the details with us as well as your impressions of its validity and the results?  Thanks.

[zorkpolitics]

The poll may not be  worthless.  Using the Interactive Election Scorecard to compare Survey USA to a wide variety of polls, The Columbus Dispatch polls are one of the few that were more accurate in predicting actual results of an election than Survey USA.  Hence, although the methodology is unusual, the Columbus Dispatch have a reasonable track record.
For comparisons see:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

[muon2]

The poll may not be  worthless.  Using the Interactive Election Scorecard to compare Survey USA to a wide variety of polls, The Columbus Dispatch polls are one of the few that were more accurate in predicting actual results of an election than Survey USA.  Hence, although the methodology is unusual, the Columbus Dispatch have a reasonable track record.
For comparisons see:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

I read through the .pdfs on the link and I'm not sure how well to trust the claims. I don't know the different comparison methodologies, but I do see that there are only 6 contests used to compare the Columbus Post Dispatch polling results. That seems like a weak statistical sample.

I also see that the University of New Hampshire fares about as well with 5 contests compared. I thought that thee methodology was also suspect, and the subject of posts here to that effect. This would lead me to suspect that the small sample of contests is a factor.

... I kinda like scientists as allies.

[© tweed]

I like the map Vorlon.

[Lunar]

Voluntary response over the phone is bad enough, but mailing is sure to be very biased.  I would expect it to favor Bush since his base is more passionate than Kerry's.