Early 2016 Base Map

[Space7]

Just for fun, I compiled all of these maps together and mentally estimated the averages of all the different base maps everyone made:

Looks about right, doesn't it?

While making it, when I saw people putting Maine District 2 as a solid Democratic seat, and at the same time putting Maine District 1 as a weaker Democratic seat, I swapped them, as District 2, is, incidentally, the more Republican one. I just assumed that the people who put District 1 as the more Republican one simply didn't know and didn't bother finding out.

I used a 50% to 90% scale for both sides of the spectrum, as I find the 30% pinks and light blues unaesthetic.

233 - Democrat
206 - Republican
99 - Tossup

[ElectionsGuy]

Just for fun, I compiled all of these maps together and mentally estimated the averages of all the different base maps everyone made:

Looks about right, doesn't it?

While making it, when I saw people putting Maine District 2 as a solid Democratic seat, and at the same time putting Maine District 1 as a weaker Democratic seat, I swapped them, as District 2, is, incidentally, the more Republican one. I just assumed that the people who put District 1 as the more Republican one simply didn't know and didn't bother finding out.

I used a 50% to 90% scale for both sides of the spectrum, as I find the 30% pinks and light blues unaesthetic.

233 - Democrat
206 - Republican
99 - Tossup

Looks almost perfect!

[barfbag]

very likely but still early ^

[Consciously Unconscious]

If New Hampshire and Iowa are tossups, wouldn't Wisconsin be as well?

[ElectionsGuy]

If New Hampshire and Iowa are tossups, wouldn't Wisconsin be as well?

Wisconsin is just slightly more democratic than those two. So it could be a toss-up but would probably be barely leaning.

[Space7]

If New Hampshire and Iowa are tossups, wouldn't Wisconsin be as well?

Wisconsin is just slightly more democratic than those two. So it could be a toss-up but would probably be barely leaning.

Yep, It was on the threshold between Democratic leaning and toss-up.

The consensus is divided between whether it's short but sudden Republican trend will continue, or if it was just a fluke and and it will continue to be a weak Democratic state. I compromised and put it in as lean a Democratic category as I possibly could.

It also helps to differentiate it from the other toss-ups. Wisconsin is more Democratic than Iowa and New Hampshire, and certainly more so than, say, Ohio.

Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, the weakest non toss-up states on the map, could probably be considered "swing states" by some standards, but they all clearly lean a certain direction.

[ElectionsGuy]

If New Hampshire and Iowa are tossups, wouldn't Wisconsin be as well?

Wisconsin is just slightly more democratic than those two. So it could be a toss-up but would probably be barely leaning.

Yep, It was on the threshold between Democratic leaning and toss-up.

The consensus is divided between whether it's short but sudden Republican trend will continue, or if it was just a fluke and and it will continue to be a weak Democratic state. I compromised and put it in as lean a Democratic category as I possibly could.

It also helps to differentiate it from the other toss-ups. Wisconsin is more Democratic than Iowa and New Hampshire, and certainly more so than, say, Ohio.

Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, the weakest non toss-up states on the map, could probably be considered "swing states" by some standards, but they all clearly lean a certain direction.

Yeah, I'll tell you that the 2008 Trend was a fluke for Obama, they clearly turned against him in 2012. I will be surprised if it jumps that far left again, but I think it'll continue a Weak D state for some time. White voters here (90% of voters) are very divided and swingish, meaning lots of independent voters who get easily convinced therefore contributing to Wisconsin's elasticity. That's how Walker and Johnson got elected. The future's too unpredictable however to predict future trends.

[TarHeelDem]

Dems - 243 EV
Repubs - 191 EV
Toss-Up - 104 EV

Something like that. The only major change from 2012 is that Nevada now leans Dem. May eventually lean Wisconsin and Iowa too but for now I'm going with this.

[eric82oslo]

Why do you think Oklahoma will not be strongly Republican? I wish you were right, but fear not. Although I think Oklahoma might be a lot closer in 12-15 years from now. They do have a lot of minorities after all. Mostly Native Americans though I think. And they might not vote in high percentages?

[TarHeelDem]

Why do you think Oklahoma will not be strongly Republican? I wish you were right, but fear not. Although I think Oklahoma might be a lot closer in 12-15 years from now. They do have a lot of minorities after all. Mostly Native Americans though I think. And they might not vote in high percentages?

Ah, Oklahoma was an error. Meant to label it strongly Republican. Thanks! As far as its status down the road, I can't make a judgment until I study the population growth of said minority groups. For instance, I'm not sure the Native American community is expected to grow too much - but it's definitely possible and an interesting case study.

[eric82oslo]

Ah, Oklahoma was an error. Meant to label it strongly Republican. Thanks! As far as its status down the road, I can't make a judgment until I study the population growth of said minority groups. For instance, I'm not sure the Native American community is expected to grow too much - but it's definitely possible and an interesting case study.

On the contrary, Native Americans have the lowest fertility of any ethnic subgroups, even lower than whites. I guess the grow of latinos there could be quite substantial though.

[TarHeelDem]

Ah, Oklahoma was an error. Meant to label it strongly Republican. Thanks! As far as its status down the road, I can't make a judgment until I study the population growth of said minority groups. For instance, I'm not sure the Native American community is expected to grow too much - but it's definitely possible and an interesting case study.

On the contrary, Native Americans have the lowest fertility of any ethnic subgroups, even lower than whites. I guess the grow of latinos there could be quite substantial though.

Oh, Andrew Jackson...

[PolitiJunkie]

Generic D vs. Generic R (i.e. not factoring in specific candidate possibilities like Christie swinging New Jersey or Hillary swinging WV/KY/AR or trends that exist but clearly won't be ready by 2016 like Texas going Democratic)

Safe D (185 EV) California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine (statewide), ME-01

Likely D (38 EV) Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, ME-02

Lean D (62 EV) Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Pure Toss-Up (47 EV) Florida, Ohio

Lean R (15 EV) North Carolina

Likely R (55 EV) Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, NE-02

Safe R (136 EV) Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (statewide), NE-01, NE-03, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina

[barfbag]

Generic D vs. Generic R (i.e. not factoring in specific candidate possibilities like Christie swinging New Jersey or Hillary swinging WV/KY/AR or trends that exist but clearly won't be ready by 2016 like Texas going Democratic)

Safe D (185 EV) California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine (statewide), ME-01

Likely D (38 EV) Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, ME-02

Lean D (62 EV) Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Pure Toss-Up (47 EV) Florida, Ohio

Lean R (15 EV) North Carolina

Likely R (55 EV) Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, NE-02

Safe R (136 EV) Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (statewide), NE-01, NE-03, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina

Your map seems very filled in this early. I'm not sure if we're supposed to be predicting with all things being equal or calling the states this far in advance? I left about 20 states blank because it's so early.

[PolitiJunkie]

Generic D vs. Generic R (i.e. not factoring in specific candidate possibilities like Christie swinging New Jersey or Hillary swinging WV/KY/AR or trends that exist but clearly won't be ready by 2016 like Texas going Democratic)

Safe D (185 EV) California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine (statewide), ME-01

Likely D (38 EV) Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, ME-02

Lean D (62 EV) Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Pure Toss-Up (47 EV) Florida, Ohio

Lean R (15 EV) North Carolina

Likely R (55 EV) Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, NE-02

Safe R (136 EV) Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (statewide), NE-01, NE-03, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina

Your map seems very filled in this early. I'm not sure if we're supposed to be predicting with all things being equal or calling the states this far in advance? I left about 20 states blank because it's so early.

See I actually created this map as a base map all things being equal. The fact is, sure states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are swing states, but all things being equal, the Democrat will win them like they have been doing since 1984. Leaving states like Michigan and Minnesota open assumes a very high caliber Republican candidate, just like I would be doing if I left Arizona or Indiana open. That's where Lean/Likely/Safe comes in handy; I can indicate that Indiana will likely go to the Republican all things being equal without being a 100% solid bet, just as I can recognize that all things being equal, the Democrat will more likely than not win New Hampshire. Not trying to call any states in advance; just setting up a generic map in which Florida and Ohio are the only truly pure toss-up states. If all this thread was asking us to do was indicate that the Democrat will win Vermont and the Republican will win Wyoming it would be a very pointless thread.

[barfbag]

http://

In that case ^

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This is the baseline in a tied race.  Everything I have colored in will vote that way.  Only the grays could possibly go back and forth in a race that is within a point, and they are few.  These things tend to be more stable than people think. 

Also note that this is assuming a Generic R/Generic D matchup.  Obviously, the presence of specific candidates can mix things up. 

[barfbag]

This is the baseline in a tied race.  Everything I have colored in will vote that way.  Only the grays could possibly go back and forth in a race that is within a point, and they are few.  These things tend to be more stable than people think. 

Also note that this is assuming a Generic R/Generic D matchup.  Obviously, the presence of specific candidates can mix things up. 

Very good

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the political trends of states and their rankings based off of previous elections using comparing it to the rest of the country: I rank these using this system. By D/R+0-10%, I'm basically saying anything that is 0-10 points more liberal or conservative than the country fits into this category.

D/R+0-10% = >30% = Weak (Lean)                              
D/R+10-20% = >50% = Strong (Likely)                        
D/R+20% or more =>70% = Solid (Safe)

2012:

2008:

2004:

Note: I have no knowledge of Congressional District Data for 2004 or 2000.

2000:

With current trends evaluated, 2016?

[opebo]

With current trends evaluated, 2016?

That's fine, but given the previous 3-4 maps you posted there, your final map represents wishful thinking about NH, CO, WI, IA, and PA - they're all clearly slightly lean D.

[ElectionsGuy]

That's fine, but given the previous 3-4 maps you posted there, your final map represents wishful thinking about NH, CO, WI, IA, and PA - they're all clearly slightly lean D.

I was thinking that the republican trend with white voters might put those states in play, they're all just slightly tilted left of the nation by 1 or 2 points. Just like I thought the democratic trend with Hispanic voters would tip NM to likely D, in 2008 and 2012 it was at the edge of lean D.

Actually, I'll change WI back to lean D

[barfbag]

Perhaps this? It's too early to call many states. On election night of 2016 we could start talking a little more. I prefer to wait until states have been called.

[PolitiJunkie]

Perhaps this? It's too early to call many states. On election night of 2016 we could start talking a little more. I prefer to wait until states have been called.

I still don't like this map at all; it seems too obvious - of course Vermont will be Democratic and Wyoming will be Republican. The base map should assume Generic D vs. Generic R, and calling Oregon or Michigan swing states assumes a very high-caliber Republican, just as leaving open Indiana or Georgia assumes a very high-caliber Democrat.

On a side note, there's not much to disagree with because literally every state that could be contested (and many that won't) are left open, but if you are leaving Oregon open, you should definitely be leaving Arizona open as well. That's all.

[opebo]

That's fine, but given the previous 3-4 maps you posted there, your final map represents wishful thinking about NH, CO, WI, IA, and PA - they're all clearly slightly lean D.

I was thinking that the republican trend with white voters might put those states in play, they're all just slightly tilted left of the nation by 1 or 2 points. Just like I thought the democratic trend with Hispanic voters would tip NM to likely D, in 2008 and 2012 it was at the edge of lean D.

I'm not sure there's such a clear long term trend with the whites, more just a marked difference between '08 and '12 based mostly on '08 being the abnormal outlier. 

[JRP1994]

Perhaps this? It's too early to call many states. On election night of 2016 we could start talking a little more. I prefer to wait until states have been called.

If you intend to make a map in which many states are un-colored, I think this is far more realistic. Every state which has a PVI of less than 3 is blank in this map.