Virginia and Pennsylvania

[opebo]

Clearly VA was closer last time, but perhaps they're trending contrariwise.

[free my dawg]

I'll say Virginia.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pennsylvania, for now. We'll see if Virginia moves into the D column, or if Penn moves in the Toss-Up column in the future.

[eric82oslo]

Good question! Virginia is moving quickly Democratic, while Pennsylvania is moving slowly Republican. However, Pennsylvania is not only an inelastic state, it was also one of the worst matches in the nation for Obama, while Virginia was clearly one of his better matches. Working class Democrats - which there still seem to be a lot of in Pennsylvania - seem to be in love with Hillary in that state. So with Hillary on the ticket, my prediction is that she will do better in Pennsylvania than in Virginia. But I think both will probably be close to the national average.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Pennsylvania for now. Its moving too slowly to switch places with VA right now. Maybe 2020.

[Sol]

They should be in roughly the same spot, although if pushed, I'd say VA for the GOP.

[illegaloperation]

It depends on the nominee.

In terms of voting trends, southwest Pennsylvania is basically an extension of West Virginia. We all know how (not) awesome Obama did in West Virginia.

As for Virginia, the west of Virginia votes like West Virginia, but that is more than counteract by the growth in northern Virginia.

Of cause West Virginia-like regions also extend much farther into Pennsylvania than Virginia.

If the Democratic nominee improves in West Virginia, she will also improve in Pennsylvania.

[barfbag]

VA is still to the right of PA at the presidential level.

[Devils30]

Long term easily Virginia but for 2016 Hillary or another white Dem might be a better fit for PA than Obama.

[Down the Gurney]

A toss up state only won so securely due to the urban fit, or a state dominated by a Dem machine since the 30s. My mind says the second but my heart says the first.

[DS0816]

This is not a good poll! It isn't challenging.

Virginia is now a bellwether state. It was No. 1 in both 2008 and 2012 for mirroring the national margin (along with being in the column for the elected and re-elected 44th president, Democrat Barack Obama).

Pennsylvania is a base state for the Democrats. Since the 1950s, every Republican who carried Pa.—Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Richard Nixon (1972), Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984), and George Bush (1988)—won it with a statewide margin less than their national numbers. Three Democrats—Hubert Humphrey (1968), Al Gore (2000), and John Kerry (2004)—carried the state of Pennsylvania despite not getting elected. And all prevailing Democrats—John Kennedy (1960), Jimmy Carter (1976), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), and Barack Obama (2008, 2012)—carried the state with margins that exceeded the winners' national numbers.

Pa. will go to the Republicans if they can win the popular vote with a margin that is at least five percentage points. And by that rate, it would be an electoral landslide (along with the carriage of states which vote, long term, like Pa.). This hasn't happened for Team Red since 1988—given George W. Bush's 2004 popular-vote margin of R+2.46 has been the only winning once since after the 1980s—and that marked the last year on record that a GOP carried the Keystone State. That is also true with California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, and Vermont. (That is before mentioning other "Blue Firewall" states.) Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC's election-night coverage for 2008, had it right: "[For the Republicans,] It is fool's gold! . . . As long as the epicenter of the [Republican] party is in the southeast. . ."

[TDAS04]

Probably Pennsylvania, especially is Hillary is the nominee.

[Non Swing Voter]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

[barfbag]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

[Non Swing Voter]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

[barfbag]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

Take into account the Republicans are looking at winning the next two presidential elections because it usually goes back and forth between 8 years.

[eric82oslo]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic.  

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

Take into account the Republicans are looking at winning the next two presidential elections because it usually goes back and forth between 8 years.

Terry McCauliffe predicted on Morning Joe on the morning after Hillary had lost the primary to Barack that Democrats would keep the White House for the next 16 straight years. I guess he knew already then that his boss at the time would seek the 2016 nomination.

He predicted every single state that Hillary won in that primary right btw, or at least so he claimed on the morning show.

[barfbag]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic.  

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

Take into account the Republicans are looking at winning the next two presidential elections because it usually goes back and forth between 8 years.

Terry McCauliffe predicted on Morning Joe on the morning after Hillary had lost the primary to Barack that Democrats would keep the White House for the next 16 straight years. I guess he knew already then that his boss at the time would seek the 2016 nomination.

He predicted every single state that Hillary won in that primary right btw, or at least so he claimed on the morning show.

He also predicted Jeb Bush to be gone the day before he was re-elected and then went on to predict the Democrats to have 51-53 seats in the senate when they ended up with 48. He capped it off by saying they'd win the House back. This was the day before the 2002 primary.

[stevekamp]

I'd say both, unless the Dem margins in the Philly suburbs (Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Chester) and NoVa (Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Manasas, Manassas Park, Prince William, Loudon) disappear.

[ElectionsGuy]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

Take into account the Republicans are looking at winning the next two presidential elections because it usually goes back and forth between 8 years.

By history, yes they are more likely to come back, but statistically that's not always true (1988, 1948)

[barfbag]

In 2016 Pennsylvania will vote democratic by a larger margin.

In 2020 they will probably vote about the same.

2024 and beyond, Virginia will be more democratic. 

PA seems to be trending slightly republican.  VA is undoubtedly trending democratic at an exceedingly fast pace.  NOVA will probably be about 40% of the statewide vote by the late 2020's.  No way Republicans can overcome such huge vote totals there.  Especially when democrats get strong support from Richmond, college towns like Charlottesville, black towns in the southern portion of the state, and do decent in the Virginia Beach region.

This is assuming the trend continues. Trends don't continue forever.

The census projects this trend to continue.  NOVA will continue to grow rapidly.  Southwestern VA will continue to shrink.  All of the threads where people have presented hard data for how Virginia is trending away from the GOP, you merely respond: "things change."  The same can be said about New York.

Take into account the Republicans are looking at winning the next two presidential elections because it usually goes back and forth between 8 years.

By history, yes they are more likely to come back, but statistically that's not always true (1988, 1948)

True but those are very rare.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The historical odds suggest Pennsylvania, so I'll say that.  Of course, they're both swing states, so they both could go either way.  But if the present trends continue and Republicans don't improve their outreach to moderates, then both will probably become strong D-leaning states in the future.

[Horus]

PA with Hillary, probably VA without.

[THG]

LMFAOOOOOOOOOO

[TDAS04]

Well, lots of people--including myself--underestimated trends.  Fortunately, I was not among those who believed Iowa would vote to the left of Texas in 2020.