Marion County(Indianapolis), Indiana trend

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So the Indianapolis metro area(not only the city, mind you) was regarded as one of the most conservative in the country for an area of its size. Of course, UniGov in 1970 meant that Indianapolis city limits and Marion County are almost exactly the same, save a few independent towns. The incorporation of the suburbs makes this complicated

Pre-2000, Marion Co. voted fairly Republican.

In 2000, GWB won 49.23% to 47.94%

In 2004, Kerry won 50.57% to 48.65%, despite Indiana's extreme swing to the Republicans.

In 2008, Obama crushed McCain 63.67% to 35.34%.

In 2012, Obama maintained a solid 60.1% to 37.92% margin.

I can understand Obama winning by such a large margin in 2008 because of his brief history with Indiana, but what I don't understand is 2004 and 2012.
How did Kerry win with such a huge Republican trend?
How did Obama maintain his numbers despite the state swing against him?
Will Democrats continue to run up such large numbers in Indianapolis?

I'm missing something, and I feel guilty as a Hoosier for not knowing what it is.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's mainly the rural-urban divide, even though Indiana swung heavily towards Romney from 2008, it's the rural areas and suburbs that swung the heaviest and the urban areas that swung the least. I think the kind of % that Obama got this time around should be normal for a D candidate now a days in an election where the D wins comfortably. Harris County, Bexar County, and believe it or not Dallas county were all pretty republican in Texas when Bush was president but look what happened to them. Romney actually improved from Bush in rural areas and heavily dis-improved with Urban and Suburban counties/areas. Rural/Urban is becoming the South/North of the 21st century. 

However just a note that Indianapolis has a sizable black population, it could be the spike of turnout among black voters in 2012 compared to 2008, that might have something to do with Romney's not so improved result there (also look at Lake County). On a tied election I probably expect Marion to go 56% D, but it's very unpredictable, and Indiana is an elastic state, so we'll see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It was Dude Fest.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think part of it is increased black turnout, but I think the other component is the growth of the surrounding suburban counties. The 7 counties bordering Marion County had 237,123 total votes cast in the 2000 presidential election. This increased to 367,593 votes in 2012. I suspect a large number of those suburban voters were Marion County voters 12 years ago.

[Sol]

Well, Marion County does have a fair number of suburbs within its limits, and Indianapolis suburbs are quite republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think part of it is increased black turnout, but I think the other component is the growth of the surrounding suburban counties. The 7 counties bordering Marion County had 237,123 total votes cast in the 2000 presidential election. This increased to 367,593 votes in 2012. I suspect a large number of those suburban voters were Marion County voters 12 years ago.

Dude Fest drove Republicans out!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can understand Obama winning by such a large margin in 2008 because of his brief history with Indiana, but what I don't understand is 2004 and 2012.
How did Kerry win with such a huge Republican trend?
How did Obama maintain his numbers despite the state swing against him?

Simple answer: It's a biiiiig city.

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Yes.