Will Michigan still have 2 black districts in 2020?

[Sbane]

Assuming Michigan's growth continues to stagnate and Wayne County, especially Detroit, continues to shrink at the pace seen from 2010-2012, will there only be one black district in 2020? This is assuming Michigan loses a district. If you try to draw two districts the best one can do is about a 52% black VAP and 48% black VAP district, even with a split into Oakland all the way to Pontiac, and a split into Washtenaw to take in Ypsilanti. So what would a non-partisan commission do? What do you guys think?

[traininthedistance]

I doubt that Detroit will actually continue to shrink at its 2000-2010 pace... but I do bet the black population will continue to plummet at similar rates (I think instead that you'll see some white people moving back into the city, esp. the parts near downtown, though not enough to halt the decline entirely).

I think that going down to one black district will be necessary, though they'll probably draw things in such a way as to give the second district a large AA minority.  The fair thing to do, of course, would be to make it up in the form of a second black-majority district in Louisiana and South Carolina. 

[Sbane]

I doubt that Detroit will actually continue to shrink at its 2000-2010 pace... but I do bet the black population will continue to plummet at similar rates (I think instead that you'll see some white people moving back into the city, esp. the parts near downtown, though not enough to halt the decline entirely).

I think that going down to one black district will be necessary, though they'll probably draw things in such a way as to give the second district a large AA minority.  The fair thing to do, of course, would be to make it up in the form of a second black-majority district in Louisiana and South Carolina. 

Michigan is interesting because even in a fair map, the answer to this question decides whether the Detroit area becomes a democratic gerrymander or a republican gerrymander.

[Torie]

Oh, probably not, but if the Pubs are at the redistricting wheel, they will just move the Dem CD from being Macomb County based to being Oakland County based. It's no problem at all. No loss either to the Pubs if it is a fair plan, because Oakland would then have a Dem CD anyway.

[JerryArkansas]

I have been playing around with Michigan in DRA, You can do it and still stay in wayne county, but both districts have to be in low 50%, and after 2030, you have to go to flint to do two.

[krazen1211]

2 districts at 50%, 820k people. 60k overpopulated each based on 13 districts for 9.8 million people.


The legislature can surely do better. From here the old McCotter corner of NW Wayne County goes to Mike Rogers, and a new Oakland County only district is created for Santa Claus Bentovolio.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is what a gop gerrymander would look like.




Both are at a higher percentage black than Krazen's districts, and both are ugler.

[krazen1211]

Here is what a gop gerrymander would look like.




Both are at a higher percentage black than Krazen's districts, and both are ugler.

That is a poor plan because you still want to keep Dingell's district the same.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is what a gop gerrymander would look like.




Both are at a higher percentage black than Krazen's districts, and both are ugler.

That is a poor plan because you still want to keep Dingell's district the same.

By doing that, I try not to piss off to many people who might try and sue for a better map.

[dpmapper]

It's a poor plan because it splits too many municipalities to be viable under Michigan's redistricting guidelines. 

[Torie]

The maps on this page are all illegal under Michigan law (you can have but one muni split between CD's). And the VRA does not requiring appending the blacks in Pontiac to those in Southfield and Detroit, so the VRA does not trump Michigan law here. The Pontiac blacks are separated from the blacks farther south by a bunch of white people. It is not one community of interest.

[muon2]

The maps on this page are all illegal under Michigan law (you can have but one muni split between CD's). And the VRA does not requiring appending the blacks in Pontiac to those in Southfield and Detroit, so the VRA does not trump Michigan law here. The Pontiac blacks are separated from the blacks farther south by a bunch of white people. It is not one community of interest.

It looks like the Krazen map could be tweaked to be compliant. The CoI argument will be interesting in the future. In the LULAC case the court ruled that the different media markets were a factor in showing separate CoI. The IL-4 cases showed that the minority areas need not be contiguous to be a CoI. If the media market is the same for Pontiac and Detroit, will there be a case that they are the same CoI despite the lack of contiguity?

[Torie]

The maps on this page are all illegal under Michigan law (you can have but one muni split between CD's). And the VRA does not requiring appending the blacks in Pontiac to those in Southfield and Detroit, so the VRA does not trump Michigan law here. The Pontiac blacks are separated from the blacks farther south by a bunch of white people. It is not one community of interest.

It looks like the Krazen map could be tweaked to be compliant. The CoI argument will be interesting in the future. In the LULAC case the court ruled that the different media markets were a factor in showing separate CoI. The IL-4 cases showed that the minority areas need not be contiguous to be a CoI. If the media market is the same for Pontiac and Detroit, will there be a case that they are the same CoI despite the lack of contiguity?

My guess is no. And SCOTUS is in the business at the moment of containing the VRA, not expanding its reach, particularly if doing so mandates the breeding of octopuses with a voracious appetite for chops.

[cinyc]

It looks like the Krazen map could be tweaked to be compliant. The CoI argument will be interesting in the future. In the LULAC case the court ruled that the different media markets were a factor in showing separate CoI. The IL-4 cases showed that the minority areas need not be contiguous to be a CoI. If the media market is the same for Pontiac and Detroit, will there be a case that they are the same CoI despite the lack of contiguity?

Pontiac and Detroit are in the same TV market - as are Cleveland and Akron, for that matter.  If that's the standard, both Gerrymandered VRA districts should be compliant.  The Detroit district couldn't extend to Flint, though, since it is in a different TV market.

[krazen1211]

The maps on this page are all illegal under Michigan law (you can have but one muni split between CD's). And the VRA does not requiring appending the blacks in Pontiac to those in Southfield and Detroit, so the VRA does not trump Michigan law here. The Pontiac blacks are separated from the blacks farther south by a bunch of white people. It is not one community of interest.

My eyes must be going. I would split Westland (with the 8th district) Farmington Hills (with the 11th district), Dearborn (with the Dingell district) and Mt Clements (with the 10th district). And Detroit.

Which did I miss? That blue precinct along the Grosse Points is a display bug. And the legislature has already decided this decade that double county crosses will happen.

[krazen1211]

It looks like the Krazen map could be tweaked to be compliant. The CoI argument will be interesting in the future. In the LULAC case the court ruled that the different media markets were a factor in showing separate CoI. The IL-4 cases showed that the minority areas need not be contiguous to be a CoI. If the media market is the same for Pontiac and Detroit, will there be a case that they are the same CoI despite the lack of contiguity?

Pontiac and Detroit are in the same TV market - as are Cleveland and Akron, for that matter.  If that's the standard, both Gerrymandered VRA districts should be compliant.  The Detroit district couldn't extend to Flint, though, since it is in a different TV market.

Lawsuits in general have not been very successful in the 2010 redistricting as the courts have deferred to whatever is decided by state legislatures.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, if it at all possible. Heck, yes if at all possible to have one district over 50% VAP and the other essentially a Black district anyways.

[Torie]

The maps on this page are all illegal under Michigan law (you can have but one muni split between CD's). And the VRA does not requiring appending the blacks in Pontiac to those in Southfield and Detroit, so the VRA does not trump Michigan law here. The Pontiac blacks are separated from the blacks farther south by a bunch of white people. It is not one community of interest.

My eyes must be going. I would split Westland (with the 8th district) Farmington Hills (with the 11th district), Dearborn (with the Dingell district) and Mt Clements (with the 10th district). And Detroit.

Which did I miss? That blue precinct along the Grosse Points is a display bug. And the legislature has already decided this decade that double county crosses will happen.

What I noticed off the bat is that you have two chops in Oakland for your CD going up north to grab Pontiac (Farmington Hills and West Bloomfield).  The same green CD in Wayne chops Detroit and Westland. The blue CD generates a cross chop of Wayne and Macomb, also illegal.

[Biden his time]

Will it?

[Stuart98]

Barring any surprises, it will still be plenty possible to have two majority black districts in metro Detroit.

[Nyvin]

Absolute yes.   The thing is though, it's become kinda standard now that districts don't actually need 50% BVAP anywhere in the country to elect the candidates of their choice anymore. Something in the mid forties is really good enough.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This should be possible without even crossing 8 Mile Road.

[Minnesota Mike]

This map with 2020 numbers has 2 VAP Black majority (barely) districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#stats::6a361d57-bde5-4b7d-9210-fa6cbdf4a394

[BoiseBoy]

This map with 2020 numbers has 2 VAP Black majority (barely) districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#stats::6a361d57-bde5-4b7d-9210-fa6cbdf4a394

You posted the wrong DRA link.

[BoiseBoy]

This map with 2020 numbers has 2 VAP Black majority (barely) districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#stats::6a361d57-bde5-4b7d-9210-fa6cbdf4a394

You posted the wrong DRA link.

Just hit map if you want to see the map.

You can't just paste the URL of your map. It results in a "save request failed" error and then dumps you back onto the menu. You have to click the share map button and then paste THAT link.

EG: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0a26f22c-96a8-4d6a-9c2e-118b9af24d1c