Xing’s 30K AMA

[Xing]

Somehow I’ve spent enough of my life here to reach 30K. You know the drill.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Welcome to the 30,000 club!

Sorry that's not a question.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

1) Will Nevada ever again vote Republican for President? If so, when?

2) What will be your post count when the next Republican Presidential nominee wins Nevada? If you don't think that a Republican will ever win it, then what will your post count be when Nevada next trends Republican 2 cycles in a row?

3) How many of those posts will be about Nevada?

4) Why does polling so consistently and predictably overestimate Republicans in Nevada?

5) When will be the first year when a Democratic Presidential candidate carries a rural county in Nevada? Which will the county be?

[Xing]

Welcome to the 30,000 club!

Sorry that's not a question.

Thanks, you too!

1) Will Nevada ever again vote Republican for President? If so, when?

2) What will be your post count when the next Republican Presidential nominee wins Nevada? If you don't think that a Republican will ever win it, then what will your post count be when Nevada next trends Republican 2 cycles in a row?

3) How many of those posts will be about Nevada?

4) Why does polling so consistently and predictably overestimate Republicans in Nevada?

5) When will be the first year when a Democratic Presidential candidate carries a rural county in Nevada? Which will the county be?

1. I’m guessing Republicans are much more likely than not to win it in one of the next two presidential elections. If Biden wins re-election, 2028 will probably be a decisive win for Republicans, in which they flip NV along with several other states. Trump probably has about a 40% chance of winning NV next year. The only way it goes Democratic in both years is if Biden wins it narrowly while narrowly losing the election.

2. Hopefully under 50K.

3. I’ve made very few posts about NV recently. I’ve pretty much acknowledged that it’s a swing state. I maintain that it’s not going to trend significantly Republican in the near future, but Democrats clearly can’t take it for granted.

4. A combination of difficulty reaching Latinos who speak more Spanish than English (and are more Democratic-leaning than those who primarily speak English), as well as the fact that it has a fairly transient population, and those who move a lot are more Democratic-leaning.

5. It’s probably going to take a realignment for a Democrat to win a rural NV county. If Carson City counts, maybe a Democrat could win it in the next really big win, but I think we’ll keep seeing the same county map in NV for the foreseeable future.

[junior chįmp]

I dont have a question but just wanted to let you know I love reading your posts Mr. Xing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I had a Dream last night that Ds won OH and FL he doesn't like to overpred and Biden is leading in NC the maps are blank on Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying this as a D we need more users to make Nut maps, not as a  users because why put down in TX, NC ,FL and OH Rs winning and on Eday we want Da to win

I underpred before in 2008/12 FL because Rs concede 90 percent of the blk vote, Bush W didn't underperforming in the blk vote because he has Colin Powell

As I said before Gephardt not Edwards had the natl security support to cut into Bush W base it would of been a Kerry victory id Gephardt was Veep, Cheney said don't trust Edwards because he had zero natl security , Edwards is the biggest Veep mistake in modern history, why did Dukakis select Lloyd Bentsen and JFK Johnson foreign policy

They said Kerry wanted Gephardt anyways and was talked out of it

That's why I am optimistic about Biden chances he is the Gephardt of Ds  and that's why Obama selected him as Veep

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which book would you sooner read - White Fang or Animal Farm?

[Xing]

I dont have a question but just wanted to let you know I love reading your posts Mr. Xing.

Thank you. I try, probably too hard.

I had a Dream last night that Ds won OH and FL he doesn't like to overpred and Biden is leading in NC the maps are blank on Eday

You heard him, Atlas. Make our great leader’s dream a reality!

Which book would you sooner read - White Fang or Animal Farm?

I’ve already read Animal Farm, so I guess I’d want to read White Fang.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How do you explain the 2019 Kentucky Governor election? Have you deconstructed and reconstructed your election analysis standards since then? And do you still actually believe IceSpear is a complete genius and near infallible?

Also what is your thoughts now in reflection on your name/avatar combo mocking the notion of Hispanics in Florida swinging Trump in 2020? Do you think it had any validity whatsoever, or will you just admit it was insanely f[inks]ing stupid?

[Xing]

How do you explain the 2019 Kentucky Governor election? Have you deconstructed and reconstructed your election analysis standards since then? And do you still actually believe IceSpear is a complete genius and near infallible?

Also what is your thoughts now in reflection on your name/avatar combo mocking the notion of Hispanics in Florida swinging Trump in 2020? Do you think it had any validity whatsoever, or will you just admit it was insanely f[inks]ing stupid?

I’ll be anxiously awaiting your explanation for previous wrong predictions.

As for Kentucky, I was going on the idea that previous polling would repeat itself, since polling looked similar to 2015 and seemed to follow a similar trend line. I obviously shouldn’t have made that assumption, and even if I suspected polls were underestimating Bevin, I shouldn’t have discounted the possibility that Beshear could win. I guessed Beshear would win by 2 this time around, so I’ve clearly course-corrected. I never claimed IceSpear was infallible.

In Florida, a lot of the people making the prediction of a huge Republican swing among Latinos were either Republican hacks or people bedwetting based on anecdotal information. The fact they ended up being tight doesn’t make them smart, it makes them lucky, in the same way that someone who might’ve predicted that Sanders would do 16 points better in the Michigan primary than the Ohio primary because Michigan and Ohio hate each other and thus must vote differently is not an electoral genius. I was making fun at the absurdity of the reasoning behind the Florida predictions. I could’ve put some stock in the anecdotal evidence rather than wholly dismissing it, but it’s pretty much impossible to know when these sorts of reports are getting at something real or just a bunch of hot air.