The latino population

[Gass3268]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

The idea that Latinos are natural Republicans, but don't know it is wrong and a tad bit racist.   Latinos support abortion, gay marraige and Obamacare at a rate higher than the national average.

Not to mention immigration reform and liberal fiscal policies/social programs. The only argument one could potentially make about Latinos being Republicans who don't know it is that, as a result of their faith and religious convictions, they oppose gay marriage and abortion, that they are cultural conservatives, but we now know even that isn't true.

But polling shows that Latinos support both abortion and gay marrige at a higher level then the general national numbers.

I don't understand what anyone's fascination is about polls. The only thing we can agree on when it comes to polling is that they can be wrong.

Not when its consistant and from different polling firms.

Ok well one thing we can all agree on is that real votes are more relevant than polling.

1992 +8
1996 +5
2000 +7
2004 +8
2008 +15*
2012 +12

How's that for consistency?

I wasn't debating Arizona. I think it will flip or become competative at some point, but not for at least 10-15 years.

[barfbag]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

The idea that Latinos are natural Republicans, but don't know it is wrong and a tad bit racist.   Latinos support abortion, gay marraige and Obamacare at a rate higher than the national average.

Not to mention immigration reform and liberal fiscal policies/social programs. The only argument one could potentially make about Latinos being Republicans who don't know it is that, as a result of their faith and religious convictions, they oppose gay marriage and abortion, that they are cultural conservatives, but we now know even that isn't true.

But polling shows that Latinos support both abortion and gay marrige at a higher level then the general national numbers.

I don't understand what anyone's fascination is about polls. The only thing we can agree on when it comes to polling is that they can be wrong.

Not when its consistant and from different polling firms.

Ok well one thing we can all agree on is that real votes are more relevant than polling.

1992 +8
1996 +5
2000 +7
2004 +8
2008 +15*
2012 +12

How's that for consistency?

I wasn't debating Arizona. I think it will flip or become competative at some point, but not for at least 10-15 years.

You think the trend will reverse soon? I'm sorry I think I meant to post it in another thread.

[Holmes]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

My husband's family is not Republican at all. None of them. None of their family friends. Sure, they're Californian latinos, but still. Even my husband's 70+ year old immigrant grandparents support abortion, same-sex marriage, and attend mass like more than once a week in Spanish. And you should see the young generation. How many latinos do you know personally?

[TDAS04]

It's true that Latinos are not as socially conservative as the stereotype, and that Republicans are not going to win them over by focusing on gay marriage and abortion.  If the GOP continues its hard line on immigration, Latinos will continue to vote overwhelmingly Democratic. 

No one ever said that Latinos were mostly "communist" of "socialist"; they're not, but that doesn't mean that anyone of any ethnicity wants absolutely no public support for the poor.

[barfbag]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

My husband's family is not Republican at all. None of them. None of their family friends. Sure, they're Californian latinos, but still. Even my husband's 70+ year old immigrant grandparents support abortion, same-sex marriage, and attend mass like more than once a week in Spanish. And you should see the young generation. How many latinos do you know personally?

I knew a few conservative ones when I lived in Florida. Since then Latinos I've met are liberal.

[eric82oslo]

These were the latino percentage of actual eligible voters in the 2012 election by state:

New Mexico: 39%
California: 26%
Texas: 26%
Arizona: 19%
Florida: 16%
Nevada: 15%
Colorado: 14%
New York: 13%
New Jersey: 11%
Illinois: 9%
Connecticut: 9%
Utah: 7%
Rhode Island: 7%
Hawaii: 7%
Massachusetts: 6%
Washington: 6%
Kansas: 6%
Idaho: 6%
Wyoming: 6%
Oregon: 5%
Nebraska: 5%
Washington D.C.: 5%
Pennsylvania: 4%
Virginia: 4%
Maryland: 4%
Oklahoma: 4%
Georgia: 3%
Michigan: 3%
North Carolina: 3%
Wisconsin: 3%
Indiana: 3%
Louisiana: 3%
Ohio: 2%
Tennessee: 2%
Minnesota: 2%
Missouri: 2%
South Carolina: 2%
Arkansas: 2%
Iowa: 2%
Kentucky: 1%
Alabama: 1%
Mississippi: 1%

No doubt these percentages will increase markedly in almost every single state in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Reasons being that the average latino is about 14 years younger than the average white American and that such a huge percentage of the latino population, and in particular of the legal/citizen latino population, are still under 18.

Source: http://www.pewhispanic.org/category/election-fact-sheets/page/1/

[Flake]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

Actually Latinos are very socially liberal and about60% of Latinos who immigrate into the United States are from Mexico which we all know is a democracy. Most Latinos in central Florida are of Puerto Rican descent and are extremely liberal except for a select few. Cubans are only significant in population in Dade County abs I have no idea where you got your information saying that Latinos are conservative because polls are very important in determining the positions of many Americans in a representative sample and they say Latinos are liberal too.

[hopper]

I thought it was between 4-5%. Something needs to be done about this in our party. Latinos are Republicans but don't know it. If we focus on the free market over the communist and socialist countries they came from combined with social conservative values. I'm sure they'd support school choice.

My husband's family is not Republican at all. None of them. None of their family friends. Sure, they're Californian latinos, but still. Even my husband's 70+ year old immigrant grandparents support abortion, same-sex marriage, and attend mass like more than once a week in Spanish. And you should see the young generation. How many latinos do you know personally?

Most older Latino's who came from another country (with the exception of Cuba) they will probably vote D I don't doubt that.

[hopper]

It's true that Latinos are not as socially conservative as the stereotype, and that Republicans are not going to win them over by focusing on gay marriage and abortion.  If the GOP continues its hard line on immigration, Latinos will continue to vote overwhelmingly Democratic.  

No one ever said that Latinos were mostly "communist" of "socialist"; they're not, but that doesn't mean that anyone of any ethnicity wants absolutely no public support for the poor.

Yeah true on the hard-line immigration I agree if the GOP continues that it will be a lialbility for them in future presidential and federal elections.

Where are you trying to get at with no public support for the poor? The GOP supports support for the poor but the parties position is you can't place a dependency on federal poverty programs for a very long time. Eventually you have to get a job and be dependent on yourself at some point rather than rely on federal poverty programs.

[Flake]

It's true that Latinos are not as socially conservative as the stereotype, and that Republicans are not going to win them over by focusing on gay marriage and abortion.  If the GOP continues its hard line on immigration, Latinos will continue to vote overwhelmingly Democratic.  

No one ever said that Latinos were mostly "communist" of "socialist"; they're not, but that doesn't mean that anyone of any ethnicity wants absolutely no public support for the poor.

Yeah true on the hard-line immigration I agree if the GOP continues that it will be a lialbility for them in future presidential and federal elections.

Where are you trying to get at with no public support for the poor? The GOP supports support for the poor but the parties position is you can't place a dependency on federal poverty programs for a very long time. Eventually you have to get a job and be dependent on yourself at some point rather than rely on federal poverty programs.

Well I think he's saying that the more conservative members of your party (like super-ultra-mega conservative) want no public support for those who are poor, and as we have seen in the past in politics, the more inspirational or crazy a speech is, the higher chance it gets a lot of coverage in the media, and it reflects on voters as thats what the party is, because of the (super-ultra-mega) conservative members of your party that is against this. I know a majority of those in this forum have not read the entire GOP platform, and this is a political forum! The average voter has an even lower chance of reading it, including the DEM platform as well. I just think the crazies in your party have a louder voice than the moderate voices in your party. It usually is just whoever loudest determines the parties fates.

[opebo]

So, I really doubt that Hispanics will become much more GOP even if that party tones down on its anti-brown, anti-immigration rhetoric since after all Hispanics are both socially and economically left-leaning.  There is really no common ground at all in any cultural or ideological sense.

[hopper]

It's true that Latinos are not as socially conservative as the stereotype, and that Republicans are not going to win them over by focusing on gay marriage and abortion.  If the GOP continues its hard line on immigration, Latinos will continue to vote overwhelmingly Democratic.  

No one ever said that Latinos were mostly "communist" of "socialist"; they're not, but that doesn't mean that anyone of any ethnicity wants absolutely no public support for the poor.

Yeah true on the hard-line immigration I agree if the GOP continues that it will be a lialbility for them in future presidential and federal elections.

Where are you trying to get at with no public support for the poor? The GOP supports support for the poor but the parties position is you can't place a dependency on federal poverty programs for a very long time. Eventually you have to get a job and be dependent on yourself at some point rather than rely on federal poverty programs.

Well I think he's saying that the more conservative members of your party (like super-ultra-mega conservative) want no public support for those who are poor, and as we have seen in the past in politics, the more inspirational or crazy a speech is, the higher chance it gets a lot of coverage in the media, and it reflects on voters as thats what the party is, because of the (super-ultra-mega) conservative members of your party that is against this. I know a majority of those in this forum have not read the entire GOP platform, and this is a political forum! The average voter has an even lower chance of reading it, including the DEM platform as well. I just think the crazies in your party have a louder voice than the moderate voices in your party. It usually is just whoever loudest determines the parties fates.

Well I have read the GOP platform and the Dem one mostly on ontheissues.org. Our Moderates really haven't had a voice in the GOP for a long time its just the pragmatic conservative ones that are willing to compromise like a Peter King or even a Devin Nunes(R-CA) as opposed to the Ted Cruz's or the some of the Deep South Republicans in the US House like a Mo Brooks(R-AL.)

I disagree even the hard-right republicans realize there has to be a social safety net for the poor. Its about spending and ObamaCare that the hard-right goes crazy about.

With Hispanics I agree they are left of center socially. Economically they just like the Democrats political programs like ObamaCare or the Stimulus. Its more about their family as to why they like these 2 programs. They want easier access to healthcare insurance which ObamaCare provides and stimulus which includes supposedly shovel ready jobs and construction jobs make up a lot of latino jobs. They don't want a family member to be unemployed at all or not to have easier access to health insurance. I know its a crazy theory about the family thing but I just see it that way.

Personally for me I can get my own health insurance and get a job without a stimulus program.

[CubanoTX]

Understand latino is a pretty misused word in the USA, It means anyone who has ancestry from latin culture, this is the romans. Second hispanic is anyone with one ancestor from spain or ancestor came from a spanish speaking country. The media in the USA makes hispanic its own little deal when it really is a big group of people of all different races and cultures. So saying Latins or hispanics will vote one way is very incorrect

[eric82oslo]

Let's imagine that the latino population in each of the 50 states + D.C. will grow with the same percentage during the next 20 years, that is to say between 2010 and 2030 as it's been growing for the past two decades, that is between 1990 and 2010. Then where will USA be by then? A small thought experiment here, but hopefully a slightly provcative one. So these will be the latino percentages in each state by 2030 if the same growth continues for two more decades:


1. New Mexico: 54.4%
2. Texas: 49.7%
3. California: 49.4%
4. Nevada: 41.6%
5. Arizona: 40.4%
6. Florida: 32.8%
7. Colorado: 28.5%
8. New Jersey: 25.8%
9. Illinois: 23.7%
National average: 23.6%
10. New York: 22.9%
11. Utah: 21.1%
12. Connecticut: 20.3%
13. Rhode Island: 20.2%
14. Oregon: 19.4%
15. Washington: 18%
16. Kansas: 17.2
17. Idaho: 17.1%
18. Nebraska: 16.1%
19. Georgia: 15.9%
20. North Carolina: 15.6%
21. Oklahoma: 15.1%
22. Massachusetts: 14.4%
23. Delaware: 14%
24. Maryland: 13.8%
25. Virginia: 13.2%
26. Washington D.C.: 12.8%
27. Wyoming: 12.1%
28. Arkansas: 12%
29. Hawaii: 10.5%
30. Indiana: 10.2%
31. Wisconsin: 9.9%
32. Pennsylvania: 9.4%
33. South Carolina: 9.3%
34. Iowa: 8.8%
35. Tennessee: 8.5%
36. Minnesota: 8.2%
37. Alaska: 7.8%
38. Alabama: 7.2%
39. Michigan: 6.6%
40. Louisiana: 6.2%
41. Missouri: 5.8%
42. Kentucky: 5.6%
43. Ohio: 4.9%
44. Mississippi: 4.8%
45. South Dakota: 4.6%
46. New Hampshire: 4.6%
47. Montana: 4.3%
48. North Dakota: 3.3%
49. Vermont: 2.3%
50. Maine: 2%
51. West Virginia: 1.9%

Source on past growth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Hispanic_and_Latino_population#Hispanic.2FLatino_.25_of_Population_.281910-2010.29_by_U.S._State

Thoughts?

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Many central and south American countries are far more liberal than the US on these issues.  Catholics support gay marriage and abortion at a higher rate than protestants.  Hispanics also naturally support democrats because republicans say offensive things about their community constantly (see barfbag's oft quoted post above for example).

[opebo]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Because they don't know much of anything about Latinos.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Because they don't know that Latino "social conservatism" is different from the white American variant.

[hopper]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Because they don't know much of anything about Latinos.

No Republicans from states where there  Hispanics make up a good amount of population understand them. Its in the Deep South(no Texas doesn't count) and in the Upper Midwest that Republicans fail to understand what the Hispanic Population wants because there aren't a lot of Hispanics that lives in those 2 regions of the US except for Illinois. I don't think Florida counts as Deep South anymore except for the panhandle section where a lot of Hispanics don't live.

[BaldEagle1991]

The wild card here is the growing Hispanic Evangelical Protestant population. Remember that.

[opebo]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Because they don't know much of anything about Latinos.

No Republicans from states where there  Hispanics make up a good amount of population understand them. Its in the Deep South(no Texas doesn't count) and in the Upper Midwest that Republicans fail to understand what the Hispanic Population wants because there aren't a lot of Hispanics that lives in those 2 regions of the US except for Illinois. I don't think Florida counts as Deep South anymore except for the panhandle section where a lot of Hispanics don't live.

Well regardless even if they 'understand the Hispanic' they've certainly failed to do anything with that understanding, losing 70/30 against the Democrats.

[hopper]

Why do Republicans think Latinos will help them reverse the trend on issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.?

Because they don't know much of anything about Latinos.

No Republicans from states where there  Hispanics make up a good amount of population understand them. Its in the Deep South(no Texas doesn't count) and in the Upper Midwest that Republicans fail to understand what the Hispanic Population wants because there aren't a lot of Hispanics that lives in those 2 regions of the US except for Illinois. I don't think Florida counts as Deep South anymore except for the panhandle section where a lot of Hispanics don't live.

Well regardless even if they 'understand the Hispanic' they've certainly failed to do anything with that understanding, losing 70/30 against the Democrats.

Well Presidential Election that's a different animal.

[opebo]

No Republicans from states where there  Hispanics make up a good amount of population understand them. Its in the Deep South(no Texas doesn't count) and in the Upper Midwest that Republicans fail to understand what the Hispanic Population wants because there aren't a lot of Hispanics that lives in those 2 regions of the US except for Illinois. I don't think Florida counts as Deep South anymore except for the panhandle section where a lot of Hispanics don't live.

Well regardless even if they 'understand the Hispanic' they've certainly failed to do anything with that understanding, losing 70/30 against the Democrats.

Well Presidential Election that's a different animal.

What purpose do you imagine they would want to understand these Hispanics for other than to win their votes?!