Nevada: Long Gone?

[ElectionsGuy]

People have been talking about this so it deserves a poll and a thread, is Nevada Long Gone? I will choose option 4 because of the fact that it trended pretty R in the last election, so I have yet to classify it as a "Solid D State". Right now it's Lean D in my view, here are the trends in the past 3 elections when compared to the popular vote nationally:

2004: R+0.2%
2008: D+5.2%
2012: D+2.8%

Remember that Nevada depends heavily on Hispanic turnout, and this is a reason for Nevada's elasticity. How conservative or liberal the Hispanic vote is a great factor to determining Nevada's %. In my book Nevada is not long gone but kind of like Wisconsin, a state that still elects republicans but has a D advantage overall. According to 2012, in a 2012-esque election for republicans the state goes R by 1 point.

Where do you think Nevada is at now?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

[Down the Gurney]

As long as the Republican Party either "whitens" or suppresses the Hispanic vote, the state will be within reach for the GOP.

[Down the Gurney]

This talk of Nevada becoming a solid Dem state is completely overblown, ditto for Virginia.

Yes, Democrats are slightly favored in the Presidential race. But 2 election cycles is not the end of the world, and I think Democrats maxed out the Hispanic vote last year. It really can't get much worse unless Republicans completely lose it(and I mean completely, like deport all Hispanics. 2012 was just "mostly crazy").

The Republican Party can honestly make up a lot of ground in 2016 when Obama's not on the ballot and depending on his popularity. As has been said repeatedly: Obama has very strong personal appeal with Hispanics, youth, Asians, upper-class, etc. that many Dems cannot repeat. How the Republicans play their hand the next 3 years will determine their future.

I went with staying competitive, but yes 2016 will decided. I think 2016 may see a Republican swing and less racial polarization.

But here's what I don't get: Wisconsin voted more D than Nevada, but everyone seems to think Wisconsin was/still is a swing state. Why the inconsistency?

The only Democratic party that can get White people voting for it is a near omnipotent one.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Nevada is gone for the Republicans. They are tied with Minnesota for the worst state party organization, while the Democrats have a machine to get out their voters. Also the demographic trends aren't good for the Republicans either.

[barfbag]

Yeah, Nevada is gone for the Republicans. They are tied with Minnesota for the worst state party organization, while the Democrats have a machine to get out their voters. Also the demographic trends aren't good for the Republicans either.

The trends are troubling but we need to see how the GOP can do with Hispanics after the Democrats no longer have a minority candidate. Republicans are very likely to win the next two elections too. Let's see how it differs from the popular vote.

[hopper]

Yeah, Nevada is gone for the Republicans. They are tied with Minnesota for the worst state party organization, while the Democrats have a machine to get out their voters. Also the demographic trends aren't good for the Republicans either.

True the demographic trends aren't great but the Dems haven't had a governor elected from their party elected there in several years even though the State Legislature is run by Democrats. The R's still have 2 of the 4 US House Seats. They have a US Senate Seat and the governorship.

[Sol]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

[opebo]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

[eric82oslo]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

It was actually said by a Hispanic reporter at MSNBC at election night that the Obama ticket received 90% Latino support in Nevada and Colorado. If that's true, that quite overwhelming. And perhaps a sign that even 70% or 75% isn't necessarily the absolute ceiling nationwide? Certainly the Hispanic percentage who vote Democratic can increase quite a lot in states like Florida, Texas and New Mexico.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

That depends a bit on Latino turnout vs white turnout, though, doesn't it?

[hopper]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

It was actually said by a Hispanic reporter at MSNBC at election night that the Obama ticket received 90% Latino support in Nevada and Colorado. If that's true, that quite overwhelming. And perhaps a sign that even 70% or 75% isn't necessarily the absolute ceiling nationwide? Certainly the Hispanic percentage who vote Democratic can increase quite a lot in states like Florida, Texas and New Mexico.

Obama got 75% of the Hispanic vote in CO not 90%. Romney did political suicide with "self-deport" language with Hispanics. Hispanics are tolerant but they aren't gonna take that language that Romney put on them. The most important thing to Hispanics is their family and even some of their best friends they count as family. If you threaten to break up their family by "self-deport" they are not gonna take that. They find that very polarizing.

[hopper]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.

[barfbag]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.

This is true. I expect Nevada to stay as a battleground and New Mexico to become light blue. Based on the last four elections, New Mexico has voted for the winners, but trended to the left. We need an election to compare 2012 to first. 2008 was a bad year for the GOP and Romney didn't spend any time in New Mexico.

[illegaloperation]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.

This is true. I expect Nevada to stay as a battleground and New Mexico to become light blue. Based on the last four elections, New Mexico has voted for the winners, but trended to the left. We need an election to compare 2012 to first. 2008 was a bad year for the GOP and Romney didn't spend any time in New Mexico.

That's wishful thinking. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, yet it easily voted for Obama.

[barfbag]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.

This is true. I expect Nevada to stay as a battleground and New Mexico to become light blue. Based on the last four elections, New Mexico has voted for the winners, but trended to the left. We need an election to compare 2012 to first. 2008 was a bad year for the GOP and Romney didn't spend any time in New Mexico.

That's wishful thinking. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, yet it easily voted for Obama.

I can't help they voted against their economic interests. Maybe they'll thank him by voting for another Democrat or by then maybe they'll have learned their lesson. They pretty much always vote for the winner.

[ElectionsGuy]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

It was actually said by a Hispanic reporter at MSNBC at election night that the Obama ticket received 90% Latino support in Nevada and Colorado. If that's true, that quite overwhelming. And perhaps a sign that even 70% or 75% isn't necessarily the absolute ceiling nationwide? Certainly the Hispanic percentage who vote Democratic can increase quite a lot in states like Florida, Texas and New Mexico.

You actually trust MSNBC with your info? I wouldn't trust any TV news media as they will distort facts easily for a liberal/conservative bias.

[ElectionsGuy]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.

This is true. I expect Nevada to stay as a battleground and New Mexico to become light blue. Based on the last four elections, New Mexico has voted for the winners, but trended to the left. We need an election to compare 2012 to first. 2008 was a bad year for the GOP and Romney didn't spend any time in New Mexico.

That's wishful thinking. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, yet it easily voted for Obama.

Sure, but remember that Obama won by about 4% nationwide. If it trends republican again and if the republican wins by a 2012 Obama-like margin it could easily vote for a republican. But those are two big ifs. That's also assuming it swings with the nation, which it probably will with its flexibility. Would you consider 2012 a blowout? If you do then option 1 would probably fit Nevada. Otherwise it's not necessarily gone yet. 

[opebo]

the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

That depends a bit on Latino turnout vs white turnout, though, doesn't it?

Guys, even in the unlikely event the GOP makes small inroads in the Hispanic vote, or that Hispanic turnout declines slightly compared to White turnout (or in other words relative to 2012 turnout), these changes will almost certainly be made up for by the increase in their overall percentage of the electorate.

In other words, because of demographic change in Nevada (and following along a bit later in the process in Colorado), the GOP needs to make really large inroads into the Hispanic vote, or suppress their participation to a heretofore unseen degree.  Again, these are not very likely events because they are both large and contrary to trend.

[barfbag]

the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

That depends a bit on Latino turnout vs white turnout, though, doesn't it?

Guys, even in the unlikely event the GOP makes small inroads in the Hispanic vote, or that Hispanic turnout declines slightly compared to White turnout (or in other words relative to 2012 turnout), these changes will almost certainly be made up for by the increase in their overall percentage of the electorate.

In other words, because of demographic change in Nevada (and following along a bit later in the process in Colorado), the GOP needs to make really large inroads into the Hispanic vote, or suppress their participation to a heretofore unseen degree.  Again, these are not very likely events because they are both large and contrary to trend.

Latino growth is a big problem in Nevada. As you said even if they turn out in smaller numbers, the smaller number will make up an even higher portion of the electorate.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Nevada is certainly trending Democratic, though it's still Lean D at best and certainly winnable at least at a state level for the GOP.

[CatoMinor]

Of course, its part of teh firewall

(some states just are not aware yet that they are Democratic)

[bballrox4717]

Short term it is competitive, long term it becomes like New Mexico

It should be really interesting to note that though the margin of victory was bigger for Obama in New Mexico than in Nevada, he received only a half percentage more overall.

[barfbag]

Short term it is competitive, long term it becomes like New Mexico

It should be really interesting to note that though the margin of victory was bigger for Obama in New Mexico than in Nevada, he received only a half percentage more overall.

Agreed unless we figure out a way to become a bigger tent party.