Nevada: Long Gone?

[hopper]

Yeah, Nevada is gone for the Republicans. They are tied with Minnesota for the worst state party organization, while the Democrats have a machine to get out their voters. Also the demographic trends aren't good for the Republicans either.

True the demographic trends aren't great but the Dems haven't had a governor elected from their party elected there in several years even though the State Legislature is run by Democrats. The R's still have 2 of the 4 US House Seats. They have a US Senate Seat and the governorship.

[hopper]

What's missing here is the point - the demographic percentages just get worse and worse for the GOP with each passing election:  you can't really say that the Dems 'maxed out' the Latino vote in 2012 - because there will be more Latinos and fewer whites by 2016.

I meant percentage wise. 70% will be a challenge to exceed.

It was actually said by a Hispanic reporter at MSNBC at election night that the Obama ticket received 90% Latino support in Nevada and Colorado. If that's true, that quite overwhelming. And perhaps a sign that even 70% or 75% isn't necessarily the absolute ceiling nationwide? Certainly the Hispanic percentage who vote Democratic can increase quite a lot in states like Florida, Texas and New Mexico.

Obama got 75% of the Hispanic vote in CO not 90%. Romney did political suicide with "self-deport" language with Hispanics. Hispanics are tolerant but they aren't gonna take that language that Romney put on them. The most important thing to Hispanics is their family and even some of their best friends they count as family. If you threaten to break up their family by "self-deport" they are not gonna take that. They find that very polarizing.

[hopper]

Voted somewhere in between. In between Options 1 and 2 in particular, as it will mostly likely continue to be contested by Republicans in the same way Minnesota and Michigan are contested by Republicans. It most likely could be won still with favorable conditions and a lot of effort, but soon it will become like New Mexico- A Lean, bordering on Likely D state.

Exactly. Nevada is probably going to be bit like NM.

But NM and NV trended Republican in 2012 even though Obama won those states. If Republicans can dislodge the hard right they can take NV if not its gonna be a long road to hoe. NM is a little harder to win than NV.