will history be made this November in NJ?

[a83192]

Will Christie be able to win Hudson County and become the first Republican Governor of NJ to win Hudson since Thomas Kean beat Peter Shapiro in 1985?

  With Christie's approval ratings sky high and with a major endorsement from a prominent Dem mayor in that county ( Brian Stack, who has a formidable machine)  will he make history and pull it off and win Hudson County.  Obama trounced Romney here last November.

Will he snag the all important Hispanic vote in that county and carry such swing towns such as Hoboken, Secacus, Bayonne, and Kearny ?

 I think history might be in the making. What do you people think?

[Brittain33]

I don't know, but I will say that in 1984, Hudson County was D+4 relative to the country as a whole for Reagan, while in 2012, it was D+19 relative to Obama's national win. The latter number is too high for a gubernatorial race but it does show how much the county has changed.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I think Christie will top at least around 60-63 percent of the statewide vote in his re-election bid for NJ Governor.

On the Senate race, Booker's got this in the bag and locked up (much to the pissed off chargin of the Lautenberg family).

[ag]

Union City is barely 10% of the county population. Not such a major city - JC is about 4 times bigger. I haven't lived in JC for about 15 years (time flies!), but my recollection of the place is that a lot of the folks there would vote for a headless scarecrow, if it were the Dem candidate. Now, they'd recognize that it is a headless scarecrow, and will feel uncomfortable about it. But voting for a Republican? You must be kidding.

[sg0508]

I actually think his margin overall isn't going to be as strong as some think.  Many democrats will come home in the end and the question is going to be, "is he committed to NJ for four more years?" If he's so presidential, that could actually turn some voters off. Plus, he's made some "farther right" social comments concerning gay marriage, etc recently, which suggests he's catering more to the right and that could hurt him.

I do believe he's win convincingly, but I don't think he's going to break 60% overall for the state. Just a hunch.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Christie is obviously gunning for the White House for several reasons:

1. He'll be term-limited by 2017 and won't be allowed to seek a 3rd consecutive term as governor (which sucks because if the GOP won back the legislature and repealed the term limits, he might stay as governor for awhile).

2. Christie is a conservative GOPer and he'll want to expand his rising star status inside the GOP and as a future presidential candidate for 2016 by touring other states.

3. He'll have to overcome the GOP Governor-Blue State Curse (see Romney).

[sg0508]

Perhaps, but TX isn't NJ.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

The answer is yes because I believe he underperformed here in 2009 and he will have a larger than average swing. Also the kind of people moving in are more independent and open to supporting him, even if they normally still vote Democratic.